I was invited by the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (ICAEW) to present to final-year Singapore Polytechnic students.
The faculty asked me to present on the M&A outlook, given the uncertain economic environment we operate in.
This presentation starts out with a conceptual framework (drawn from the perspective of a commercial due diligence) for assessing business models, then explains some of the tectonic shifts that are expected to happen in our lifetimes.
The presentation concludes with an assessment of what it all means in the context of our current economic environment.
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20120201 - Differentiate or Die!
1. Relevance Found
Relevant … Reliable … Material
Differentiate or Die!
Getting ahead and staying
ahead in an increasingly
competitive market
Presentation to Singapore Polytechnic students
February 2012
13. “We are shifting from a world where the key source of
strategic advantage was in protecting and extracting value
from a given set of knowledge stocks – into a world in which
the focus of value creation is effective participation in
knowledge flows”
- NY Times Columnist, Thomas L. Friedman, 19 Jan 2010
12
Hi everybody. Firstly I want to thank ICAEW and the Singapore Polytechnic for extending the invitation for me to speak to you today. I’m excited to be here and I hope this will be as much fun for you guys as it was for me pulling it together.
When I was researching this speaking engagement, the first thing I did was to Google you guys and to ask questions to your faculty in order to get to know you guys a bit better.So here’s what I think. You guys are at an inflection point. You are final year students at the brink of change.So today I want to discuss with you, some tools and strategies for us to create the future.The best way to predict the future, is to create it.Because after all, we all want you guys to succeed. Succeed in your diplomas, and your future careers.We want to see you guys at the pinnacle there to shout out … “All of your bases is belong to us!” or maybe “I’m the king of he world!”So are you guys ready? Let’s go!
(1) I graduated from University with a degree in Accounting.(2) I’m an ICAEW chartered accountant, and I can say this is one of the best things I have chosen to do in my career. The global recognition of being an ICAEW member is un-matched. I highly recommend to each of you that if you’re thinking of a career in finance, the ACA is one of the best qualifications you can seek to obtain.(3) I’ve had 5 years of work experience after qualifying. (4) In a previous job I took over from my company’s previous CFO when she was promoted to the CEO position. I developed, challenged and maintained biz plans and biz models for different initiatives and business units.(5) Big 4 firms in general take training and professional development very seriously. I’ve gone through several years of continuing professional development.(6) I used to be in external audit, and this is where I gained some of my core financial analysis skills.(7) I’ve worked with clients on some interesting projects. One of the more important skills you’ll learn in your careers is project management.(8) I’m currently working in Deloitte’s M&A team. We help investors maximise the value they gain from their deals, their mergers & their acquisitions. My team of professionals are called on by our clients to be their eyes & ears on the ground. We’re a special forces unit you call in when you want to do one of your most transformational business changes.(9) Hi, this is me. You can just call me Izam – it sounds like iPhone, iPod, iMac. I’m on Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn, Google+. Come and say hi to me after this seminar if you like. I’m planning on posting these slides up on my blog.
So when your Faculty invited me here through the ICAEW, I was asked to present on the M&A outlook, given the uncertain economic environment we operate in.So I started to structure this presentation using a mindmap to help organize my thoughts.All of business activity, whether it’s new product development, expanding in new markets, finding cost efficiencies or in doing M&A deals, is all about Value. So in our flow of discussion we’re first going to start talking about Value, why it’s important, what are the sources of Value.Then we’ll talk about the mega-trends that will impact our world.And finally when we conclude, we’ll talk about how those mega-trends will shape our perceptions of Value in the future, ways we can develop strategies to create value in a world that is hit by these tsunami mega-trends and the implications on the M&A cycle.
I’m going to show you two different businesses, and I’d like for you guys to tell me, which would you rather invest in?“Value” Incorporated makes a million bucks of revenues a year. They profit $100k on an annual investment of $25k.“Volume” Incorporated does the same – a million bucks of revenues and the same $100 annual profit. Except that Volume needs an investment of $50k. Which would you rather invest in?
In the previous example, both companies had the same profit. So I ask you this question …Is accounting profit a good metric?Well, “profit” has it’s limitations. Cash flow on the other hand is not distorted the same way that accounting profit can be distorted. Being profitable is not the same as being cash generative.So here are some of the problems with accounting profit.Cash flow is the basis for economic value.So if cash flow is better, how do we use cash flow information to steer the direction of our business?
ROICTwo measures togetherCompared to cost of capitalEconomic value.So if ROIC and Revenue growth are the two keys – what can we do to increase these? I’ll show you on the following two slides.
Michael Porter’s framework is probably the most widely used for thinking about sources of competitive advantage. Porter gives us two generic strategies for developing a competitive advantage - Through becoming “value differentiators”, who can charge a price premium. That just means they target the high-end market and sell things more expensively than the competition because they can. Or they become “cost leaders”, who can afford to give discounts and attract more sales that way.Let’s use an example of the milk tea market segment in Singapore. You guys like Gong Cha right? So one way Gong Cha can improve is through creating a new style of drink. Maybe a special kind of a drink that only they have the secret recipe for.Have you tried the milk tea from other vendors? Gong Cha may try to differentiate through the taste and quality of their milk tea.Maybe Gong Cha will try and increase their brand value by partnering with other brands. K-Pop, anybody?Maybe Gong Cha will introduce a customer loyalty program. Buy 5 drinks, free 1 drink. This refers to the economic situation where one competitor acts as a leader and others quickly replicate its prices moves. So for example, if Gong Cha raised prices by 5%, and all other milk tea vendors did the same, then Gong Cha would have a temporary competitive advantage during the 5% increase. Another example of this might be taxi fares in Singapore.There’s a competitor to Gong Cha, let’s call it the New Tea Hut. Maybe instead of brewing the drinks as the customer orders it, they engineer their menu so that all drinks use only 1 of 3 different bases, then they brew the bases in bulk, thus reducing average cost per beverage.Let’s say the New Tea Hut also has an exclusive right to a particularly brand of brewed tea that gives it special pricing. That’s a unique resource.This just means that the average cost per unit becomes lower, the more that they produce. A scalable business is one where the marginal cost of servicing one more customer is low. In our example, it may be that because of New Tea Hut’s method of brewing tea reduces the cost of ingredients and holding inventory, so New Tea Hut is able to afford more stalls around Singapore. Because New Tea Hut has a wider distribution channel, they can flood the market with New Tea but Gong Cha is still stuck with it’s current stalls. This could be an example of a scalable biz, because now New Tea has more fixed costs, their focus will be in scaling up their volume.
New market, new product. OK in this example we’re going to use Ferrari. Let’s say Ferrari wanted to bring out a new line of motorcycles. That’s completely a whole new market that it’s going to compete in, with a brand new product.Let me tell you guys a little bit more about the F430 challenge. This is a racing series put on by Ferrari for Ferrari owners. Since each car is exactly the same, the playing field is level. This is the same F430 Ferrari, the same product, but it’s being targeted to a different market segment.New product, same market.The car on the left is a 430, the one on the right, a 458. The 458 replaces the 430. This one is a simple strategy to understand, it just means, make more products for the same segment you serve.This is the Las Vegas Ferrari show room. This strategy just means, sell the same products and through the same channels.One thing you should observe from this is – the further out to the right and outwards you get, the more riskier it becomes for the business.
OK now let’s talk about some of the mega-trends that are going to impact us in our lifetimes. If you can master an understanding of Value and the sources of value, and ride the wave of this mega-trend, then you would put yourself in a very good position for the future.
I came across this quote last year. Tell me, what do you guys think when you read that? To me, when I read that, I think … The world of business that my parents operated in is no more. The previous mentality of “I must protect my ricebowl” and jealously guarding resources is from a previous era.In today’s world it’s not about stopping other people from extracting value from your ricebowl. It’s about working out how to leverage other people’s talents so that you can tap an even broader base of ricebowls, all the while sharing your resources and accelerating past the competition.So I was thinking … how can I help you guys better understand this trend?
Let me introduce to you the Shift Index. It is a Deloitte study of 3 indexes and 25 measures designed to make long-term performance trends more relevant and actionable. Here are some of the key findings of the 25 measures.The first is a very human observation. Focus on connected individuals.Talent and consumers have more power as competition intensifies and networks grow in power. How many of you guys have heard of this blogger “Xia Xue” ?The widening gap between “Winners” and “Losers”. The study compared the ROA of the top companies versus the ROA of the bottom companies and found that the gap is widening. But that’s not all – the winners barely maintained their previous profits, while the losers lost money faster than before.The rate at which big companies lose their leadership positions has more than doubled. You just have to look at who were the “new hotness” technology companies in 1990, versus 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2010. Most of those names have changed over time. We all used to think Nokia could do no wrong, now Apple is king of the hill.Falling customer loyalty and increased number of new entrants. So not only are customer more picky, but they have more choice to pick from!Now it’s kind of given that everyone has a smartphone, that everyone can have real-time responses to messages. Let me share with you, my friend who is a banker here in Singapore gets worried if I don’t respond to his emails within 30 minutes. He always expects my real-time responses, so if I don’t reply fast he knows something is up!
Let me summarise some of the key findings of the report for you graphically. As an aside, FYI Deloitte is a market leader in the Data Analytics space, and in Singapore we have a significant investment in our Analytics practice. There was an article not too long ago saying that one of the hottest jobs in 2012 & after is Data Analytics specialists.This word cloud emphasises some of the key concepts of the index, but let me show you what I felt was most important.These are the key words for me: Shift, Knowledge, ROA, Flows, Talent.ROA is falling now because we are now struggling with the ultra-competitive environment. Our productivity has not yet caught upto the new demands of the ultra-connected consumers.
To me, this is the thread that ties these 5 factors together. This is the root cause for the 5 effects we can see.So … how? How do we take this understanding and use it to create a strategy that is sensitive to this problem?
So exactly what IS the Big Shift? At Deloitte our point of view is that the Big Shift will happen in three waves.The foundation wave.The flow wave.The Impact wave.
(1) So we know that ROIC and Growth are the sources of value. But how do we translate that in to strategy? How do tie this all together in a cohesive form that shows how we create a competitive advantage?(2) Let me introduce you to the business model canvas.
(0) A tool to describe business models. Once a business model is described, it can be improved upon. Visualizing it this way can help uncover hidden linkages, opportunities and risks. Let me walk you through the different components of the canvas:The rocks represents creating value. The key represents the key customer segments.This represents the channels we use to sell our value proposition to the customer segmentsHow do our customers want to interact with our value proposition ?This represents the different revenue streams. What all these have in common is that these are outwards from the value proposition to the customer. These show how the value proposition ties to the value from revenue streams.This represents the resources we need to fuel our value propositionThe shoes represent the activities we need to perform to deliver the value proposition.This represents our partner network.The measuring tape represents our cost structure.What all these have in common is that these flow from our partners to the value proposition. These show how the value proposition ties to the value from revenue streams.
(0)Let’s flesh out the Canvas by using a real-world example.Here I’ve got an example of a “traditional” music record business. Let’s say their value proposition is in “we help bring new unfound talent to the market with hit records”.They’re targeting the mass marketThey don’t develop any customer relationships at allThe revenue stream is one-off sales to the mass market. Merchandising, CDs, DVDs, etc.The key resource that they try to protect very tightly is their content. Think of SOPA.Key activities of a music label include finding talent, and marketing that talent.A record label’s key partners are the HMV’s and the CD music shops.Their costs are mostly in talent production and marketing.
(0) Now let’s compare it with MySpaceHere the value proposition is very different. MySpace “creates a platform where musicians can be heard and fans can discover new music”.They’re targeting the “long tail” of niche segmentsMySpace does something very different here – they create the platform for communities to developThe revenue stream is from advertising on the MySpace site.The key resource that they have is the breadth of the platform and ability to cater to 100’s of niche segments. This is just prohibitively expensive to do for a traditional music label because of the cost of carrying and maintaining inventory.Key activities of MySpace is in managing the platform.MySpace’s key partners are the musicians producing material for the platform.MySpace’s costs are in platform maintenance. They have a great platform that is scalable.Finally, the last thing I want to show you is the virtuous circle created here. As more users are drawn to the breadth of the platform, MySpace is able to generate more advertising revenues. This creates a feedback loop that gets stronger. This is one of the things you need to look out for in business models – the inter-relationships between the components.
(0) So how do we make more money from this? How do we create more value? Here are some areas which we can explore once we have a business model sketched outAnd the key theme we need to remember is … how do we maximize economic value in a Shifted world? The business model canvas can be used to conceptualize the value proposition, and it’s a tool that we can use to generate more ideas.Unbundling components from the model. Once we have visualized the canvas, we can see which areas we can unbundle from the model, and separate out, or to replace.Linkages between existing components. In the previous example I showed you a virtuous circle, a feedback loop that is created from the different components. This is one of the ways to create a powerful and profitable business model.Components missing from the pattern. Once you’ve worked with a few business models, you will start to recognize patterns and you’ll be able to see how a model can be improved .New segments and partners for more Growth. Probably the most important aspect of the canvas is that it forces businesses to focus on the customer needs and how to address them through partnering. This customer-focus is sadly missing in some of today’s businesses.
(0) Now let’s put everything we talked about in the context of the current market environment.Priority in a “Shifted” world. M&A will be a key opportunity for growth.M&A affordability is at its highest historical levelMarkets are favoring “pure-play” business models.M&A focus on emerging markets.