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                                      Differentiate or Die!
                                      Getting ahead and staying
                                      ahead in an increasingly
                                      competitive market




Presentation to Singapore Polytechnic students
February 2012
What I know about you guys




1   Differentiate or Die! – Introductions   © 2012 izamryan@gmai.com http://relevancefound.com
Ok a little bit about me

Reach me at iryan@deloitte.com (Work)
izamryan@gmail.com (Personal)


                                            Graduated BA (Hons)
                                                Accounting


                                                                         ICAEW Chartered
                       M&A
                                                                            Accountant



                                               Pengiran Izam
                                                                         5 years of post
                   Advisory                     Ryan Bahrin
                                                                       qualified experience
                                                   (ACA)




                       Audit                                                     Industry


                                                   Big 4




2   Differentiate or Die! – Introductions                         © 2012 izamryan@gmai.com http://relevancefound.com
Mindmap of what we’re going to discuss




3   Differentiate or Die! – Introductions   © 2012 izamryan@gmai.com http://relevancefound.com
Contents



Why is value so important?


What are the sources of value?


What are the mega-trends that will impact us?


How can we profit from it?


Conclusion




4   Differentiate or Die!                       © 2012 izamryan@gmai.com http://relevancefound.com
Cash is king, and I’ll show you why


Value Inc. (amounts in $`000)

                                      Year 1                Year 2                 Year 3                    Year 4                      Year 5
    Revenue                                   1,000              1,000                    1,000                      1,000                      1,000
    Profit                                         100              100                       100                       100                         100
    Investment                                    (25)              (25)                     (25)                       (25)                       (25)
    Cash flow                                        75               75                        75                         75                         75

Volume Inc. (amounts in $`000)
                                      Year 1                Year 2                 Year 3                    Year 4                      Year 5
    Revenue                                   1,000              1,000                    1,000                      1,000                      1,000
    Profit                                         100              100                       100                       100                         100
    Investment                                    (50)              (50)                     (50)                       (50)                       (50)
    Cash flow                                        50               50                        50                         50                         50



Source: adapted from http://www.mckinsey.com/Client_Service/Corporate_Finance/Latest_thinking/Valuation

5      Differentiate or Die! – Why is value so important?                                                 © 2012 izamryan@gmai.com http://relevancefound.com
Cash is king, and I’ll show you why




                                                                                Accounting profit is an accruals-based profit
                                                                                • It omits the “opportunity cost”
                                                                                • Illustration:
                                                                                    ‒ You invested $100k in buying stocks to sell in a new
                                                                                      biz start-up. It earned you $120k in profit (net
                                                                                      income) in the 1st year. Accounting profit = $20k.
                                                                                    ‒ But for the same year you could have been
                                                            Cash flow on
                                                                                      employed for $50k. The “Opportunity cost” is $50k
                                                           the other hand
                                                                                    ‒ You made an economic loss of $30k. Which is a
                        Is accounting                      is undistorted.            better indicator? Accounting profit or Economic
                         profit a good                                                value?
                                                           Profitable is
                           metric?
                                                           not the same
                                                             as cash            Cash flow is the basis for economic value
                                                            generating.         • Which would you rather receive? $100 in cash
                                                                                  flow or $100 in accounting profit?
                                                                                • Economic value is more useful a tool

                                                                                If cash flow is more useful than accounting profit
                                                                                • How do we use economic value as the
                                                                                   measure to steer the direction of our business?
Source: adapted from http://www.mckinsey.com/Client_Service/Corporate_Finance/Latest_thinking/Valuation

6     Differentiate or Die! – Why is value so important?                                                  © 2012 izamryan@gmai.com http://relevancefound.com
Contents



Why is value so important?


What are the sources of value?


What are the mega-trends that will impact us?


How can we profit from it?


Conclusion




7   Differentiate or Die!                       © 2012 izamryan@gmai.com http://relevancefound.com
Value comes from two key components – ROIC and Growth




                                                                               Return on                          • ROIC = operating profit ÷
                                                                            invested capital                        invested capital


                                                                                                                  • Revenue growth = annual
                                                 Cash flow
                                                                                                                    rate of increase of top-line
                                                                                                                    Revenues
                                                                                Revenue                           • Together these two
                                                                                 growth                             measures gives an idea of
     Economic                                                                                                       future cash flows
       value
                                                                                                                  • We can then compare future
                                                                                                                    cash flows against the
                                                                                                                    business cost of capital
                                                                                                                  • Value is created when ROIC
                                            Cost of Capital
                                                                                                                    > cost of capital.

                                                                                                                  • Value creation is accelerated
                                                                                                                    in high-growth companies or
                                                                                                                    operations in high-growth
                                                                                                                    industries.
Source: adapted from http://www.mckinsey.com/Client_Service/Corporate_Finance/Latest_thinking/Valuation

8     Differentiate or Die! – What are the sources of value?                                              © 2012 izamryan@gmai.com http://relevancefound.com
The key source of value is ROIC



                                                                                                              Cost and capital
                    Price premium
                                                                                                                efficiency

                                                                                                           • Innovative business
      • Innovative products
                                                                                                             method


      • Quality                                                                                            • Unique resources

                                                                     Return on
                                                                     Invested
      • Brand
                                                                      Capital
                                                                      (ROIC)

      • Customer lock-in                                                                                   • Economies of scale

                                                                                                           • Scalable
      • Rational price discipline
                                                                                                             product/process




Source: adapted from http://www.mckinsey.com/Client_Service/Corporate_Finance/Latest_thinking/Valuation

9     Differentiate or Die! – What are the sources of value?                                              © 2012 izamryan@gmai.com http://relevancefound.com
The Ansoff matrix is a tool that can be used to formulate growth strategies




                                                                 New


                                           Market portfolio




                                                              Existing
                                                                         Existing                       New

                                                                                    Product portfolio




10   Differentiate or Die! – What are the sources of value?                                               © 2012 izamryan@gmai.com http://relevancefound.com
Contents



Why is value so important?


What are the sources of value?


What are the mega-trends that will impact us?


How can we profit from it?


Conclusion




11   Differentiate or Die!                      © 2012 izamryan@gmai.com http://relevancefound.com
“We are shifting from a world where the key source of

     strategic advantage was in protecting and extracting value

     from a given set of knowledge stocks – into a world in which

     the focus of value creation is effective participation in

     knowledge flows”

     - NY Times Columnist, Thomas L. Friedman, 19 Jan 2010
12
The Shift Index is our study of 3 indexes and 25 measures designed to make
long-term performance trends more relevant and actionable




                   Focus on
                  connected
                 individuals.

                                                                                              Competitive            Digital
                 Talent and                         Widening gap
                                                                              The “topple”   intensity has          infra has
                consumers                             between
                                                                             rate has more    doubled in              huge
                 have more                          “Winners” and                              the last 40
                                                                             than doubled                           adoption
                  power as                            “Losers”                                   years                 rate
                competition
              intensifies and
              networks grow
                  in power.




13   Differentiate or Die! – What are the mega-trends that will impact us?                    © 2012 izamryan@gmai.com http://relevancefound.com
What is the common thread that ties these findings together?




14   Differentiate or Die! – What are the mega-trends that will impact us?   © 2012 izamryan@gmai.com http://relevancefound.com
The Shift Index is our study of 3 indexes and 25 measures designed to make
long-term performance trends more relevant and actionable
                         Competitive pressures are making it harder to achieve strong results

                             We are lagging behind the potential to tap on this huge potential




                   Focus on
                  connected
                 individuals.

                                                                                              Competitive            Digital
                 Talent and                         Widening gap
                                                                              The “topple”   intensity has          infra has
                consumers                             between
                                                                             rate has more    doubled in              huge
                 have more                          “Winners” and                              the last 40
                                                                             than doubled                           adoption
                  power as                            “Losers”                                   years                 rate
                competition
              intensifies and
              networks grow
                  in power.




15   Differentiate or Die! – What are the mega-trends that will impact us?                    © 2012 izamryan@gmai.com http://relevancefound.com
The biggest mega-trend of our lifetimes is the “Big Shift”




      Foundation wave                                                      Flow wave               Impact wave



     Technology will break                                       Knowledge, capital &       A fundamental shift as
     the world;                                                  talent will flow across    institutions are created
                                                                 the landscape;             not for scalable
     And re-make it in its
                                                                                            efficiency (size) but for
     image.                                                      Transforming it.
                                                                                            scalable learning
     All market segments                                         In the past, talent and    (innovation).
     will feel the force of                                      capital was
                                                                                            In order to compete,
     digitization and the                                        concentrated in
                                                                                            companies must learn
     foundation wave will                                        capitals, but as
                                                                                            to create scalable
     sweep away old norms                                        networks improve,
                                                                                            infrastructure where
     of doing business,                                          innovation will start to
                                                                                            performance
     replacing them with the                                     happen within and
                                                                                            increases as more
     new.                                                        without 4 walls.
                                                                                            participants join.




16     Differentiate or Die! – What are the mega-trends that will impact us?                © 2012 izamryan@gmai.com http://relevancefound.com
Contents



Why is value so important?


What are the sources of value?


What are the mega-trends that will impact us?


How can we profit from it?


Conclusion




17   Differentiate or Die!                      © 2012 izamryan@gmai.com http://relevancefound.com
Value comes from two key components – ROIC and Growth




                                                                               Return on
                                                                            invested capital



                                                  Cash flow


                                                                                Revenue
                                                                                 growth
     Economic
       value




                                             Cost of Capital




Source: adapted from http://www.mckinsey.com/Client_Service/Corporate_Finance/Latest_thinking/Valuation

18    Differentiate or Die! – How can we profit from it?                                                  © 2012 izamryan@gmai.com http://relevancefound.com
Business model canvas is a tool to describe business models. Once a
business model is described, it can be improved upon. Visualizing it this
way can help uncover hidden linkages, opportunities and risks.

Key                                 Key                        Value               Customer                     Customer
partners                            activities                 propositions        relationships                segments

Who are our “Key       What key activities do                  What value do we    What type of                 For whom are we
partners”, what “Key   our “Value                              deliver to the      relationship do our          creating value?
activities” do they    propositions” require?                  customer?           “Customer segments”
perform and what “Key                                                              expect us to establish
resources” do they                                                                 and maintain?
bring to our business?
                       Key                                                         Channels
                       resources
                                                                                   Through which
                                    What key resources do                          channels do our
                                    our “Value                                     “Customer segments”
                                    propositions” require?                         want to be reached?



Cost structure                                                            Revenue streams

What are the most important costs inherent in our business For what value are our customers really willing
model? Which “Key activities” / “Key resources” are the most to pay? What do they currently pay and how much would
expensive?                                                   they prefer to pay? What is the contribution of each stream
                                                             to total revenues?



Source: adapted from http://www.businessmodelgeneration.com/

19    Differentiate or Die! – How can we profit from it?                                      © 2012 izamryan@gmai.com http://relevancefound.com
Let’s take an example of the “traditional” music record business



Key                                  Key                       Value                           Customer                     Customer
partners                             activities                propositions                    relationships                segments

Distribution channels                Finding talent            “We help bring new                                           Mass market
                                                               unfound talent to the
                                     Marketing                 market with hit records”

                                                               Super-star artists and
                                                               hits
                                     Key                                                       Channels
                                     resources
                                                                                               Retail outlets
                                     Protected content
                                                                                               Radio & TV




Cost structure                                                                 Revenue streams

Talent “production”                                                            Huge revenues from a small portfolio of artists

Marketing




Source: adapted from http://www.slideshare.net/Alex.Osterwalder/long-tail-business-models-presentation

20     Differentiate or Die! – How can we profit from it?                                                 © 2012 izamryan@gmai.com http://relevancefound.com
Now compare that
     with an innovative
     business model that
     harnesses “The Shift”
     change that is
     happening
21
Take the example of MySpace



Key                                  Key                       Value                           Customer                     Customer
partners                             activities                propositions                    relationships                segments

Content producers                    Platform management       “We create a platform           Communities                  100’s of niche
                                                               where musicians can                                          segments :
                                                               be heard and fans can
                                                               discover new music”                                          •   electro pop,
                                                                                                                            •   dirty disco,
                                                               Catering to every                                            •   hard house,
                                     Key                       musical taste                   Channels                     •   euro trash,
                                     resources                                                                              •   dub step
                                                               Match-making fans with                                       •   vocal trance
                                                               new music              Online                                •   drum and bass
                                     Breadth of platform                                                                    •   progressive rock
                                                                                                                            •   heavy metal
                                                                                                                            •   K-pop
                                                                                                                            •    etc)
Cost structure                                                                 Revenue streams

Platform maintenance                                                           Advertising revenues from its huge user base




Source: adapted from http://www.slideshare.net/Alex.Osterwalder/long-tail-business-models-presentation

22     Differentiate or Die! – How can we profit from it?                                                 © 2012 izamryan@gmai.com http://relevancefound.com
Here are some areas which we can explore once we have a firm business
model sketched out




                                        New segments
                                                                             New value
                                         and partners
                                                                           proposition for
                                           for more
                                                                             more ROIC
                                            Growth


                                                           Maximizing
                                                            Economic
                                                            value in a
                                                          Shifted world?


                                          Components                         Unbundling
                                          missing from                       components
                                           the pattern                     from the model
                                                           Linkages
                                                            between
                                                            existing
                                                          components



23   Differentiate or Die! – How can we profit from it?                          © 2012 izamryan@gmai.com http://relevancefound.com
Contents



Why is value so important?


What are the sources of value?


What are the mega-trends that will impact us?


How can we profit from it?


Conclusion




24   Differentiate or Die!                      © 2012 izamryan@gmai.com http://relevancefound.com
M&A up-cycle will likely continue in 2012. Global macro factors of low
interest rates, improving equity markets and the Euro crisis will likely
contribute to increasing M&A activity, particularly in emerging markets.

          Priority in a                                                       Markets punishing                      M&A focus on
                                                M&A affordability
        “Shifted” world                                                        conglomerates                        emerging markets

M&A will be a key                          M&A affordability index        Large conglomerates                Acquirers will be looking
opportunity for growth in                  is at its historical highest   may be inclined to divest          for growth, and with the
an environment of                          • Gap between implied          non-core businesses                Euro crisis, growth will
sluggish growth                               valuation of A rated        • Stock markets valuing            likely be in emerging
• The Shift Index has                         debts, versus                 large conglomerates              markets.
   highlighted falling                     • The implied valuation          at a discount                    • As regulatory
   ROA across the                             of broad stock market       • And markets seem to                 frameworks and
   industries                                 indices                       be placing greater                  capital markets
• The study also                                                            value on pure plays                 develop in emerging
                                           • This means that debt
   highlighted the                                                                                              markets, so too will
                                              financing is affordable     • Spinoff transactions
   widening gap between                                                                                         deal flow
                                              and easy to obtain,           generally being well
   the winners and the                        which can be used to          received by the                  • China outbound
   losers                                     finance mergers &             market.                             theme, particularly in
• Innovation is not                           acquisitions                                                      the natural resources
   something that comes                                                                                         sector, will likely
   easily to all                                                                                                continue.
   corporates, so M&A
   can be a “quick win”
Source: adapted from http://www.db.com/en/media/Deutsche_Bank_--_The_Markets_in_2012_-_Foresight_with_Insight.pdf

25    Differentiate or Die! - Conclusion                                                              © 2012 izamryan@gmai.com http://relevancefound.com
My challenge to you – take what I’ve given you and make it your own, make
it better! Think holistically about the pieces & how fit together




                                          The sources of
                                                                Maximizing
       The importance                         value
                                                             these maximizes
          of value
                                                                our Value
                                            (ROIC) (g)



                                                             Biz models must
                                          We are living in    be repositioned
                                                                                      Differentiate
       ROA are falling                    a time of ultra-         to take
                                                                                         or Die !
                                           competition       advantage of the
                                                                  Big Shift


                                                             M&A will play an
                                            Difficult to
                                                                increasingly
       Innovate to stay                   institutionalize
                                                             important role in
           ahead                          an “innovative
                                                               the search for
                                              “culture
                                                                   growth



26   Differentiate or Die! - Conclusion                                          © 2012 izamryan@gmai.com http://relevancefound.com
Questions & Answers




27   Deloitte PowerPoint timesaver – September 2011
Relevance Found
Relevant … Reliable … Material




This publication contains general information only, and the author is not by means of this publication, rendering professional advice or services. Before making any decision or taking
any action that may affect your finances or your business, you should consult a qualified professional adviser. The author shall not be responsible for any loss whatsoever sustained by
any person who relies on this publication.

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 444 Castro Street, Suite 900, Mountain View, California, 94041, USA.

Presentation © 2012 Pengiran Izam Ryan Bahrin izamryan@gmail.com
Images remain the property of their respective owners.

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20120201 - Differentiate or Die!

  • 1. Relevance Found Relevant … Reliable … Material Differentiate or Die! Getting ahead and staying ahead in an increasingly competitive market Presentation to Singapore Polytechnic students February 2012
  • 2. What I know about you guys 1 Differentiate or Die! – Introductions © 2012 izamryan@gmai.com http://relevancefound.com
  • 3. Ok a little bit about me Reach me at iryan@deloitte.com (Work) izamryan@gmail.com (Personal) Graduated BA (Hons) Accounting ICAEW Chartered M&A Accountant Pengiran Izam 5 years of post Advisory Ryan Bahrin qualified experience (ACA) Audit Industry Big 4 2 Differentiate or Die! – Introductions © 2012 izamryan@gmai.com http://relevancefound.com
  • 4. Mindmap of what we’re going to discuss 3 Differentiate or Die! – Introductions © 2012 izamryan@gmai.com http://relevancefound.com
  • 5. Contents Why is value so important? What are the sources of value? What are the mega-trends that will impact us? How can we profit from it? Conclusion 4 Differentiate or Die! © 2012 izamryan@gmai.com http://relevancefound.com
  • 6. Cash is king, and I’ll show you why Value Inc. (amounts in $`000) Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Revenue 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 Profit 100 100 100 100 100 Investment (25) (25) (25) (25) (25) Cash flow 75 75 75 75 75 Volume Inc. (amounts in $`000) Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Revenue 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 Profit 100 100 100 100 100 Investment (50) (50) (50) (50) (50) Cash flow 50 50 50 50 50 Source: adapted from http://www.mckinsey.com/Client_Service/Corporate_Finance/Latest_thinking/Valuation 5 Differentiate or Die! – Why is value so important? © 2012 izamryan@gmai.com http://relevancefound.com
  • 7. Cash is king, and I’ll show you why Accounting profit is an accruals-based profit • It omits the “opportunity cost” • Illustration: ‒ You invested $100k in buying stocks to sell in a new biz start-up. It earned you $120k in profit (net income) in the 1st year. Accounting profit = $20k. ‒ But for the same year you could have been Cash flow on employed for $50k. The “Opportunity cost” is $50k the other hand ‒ You made an economic loss of $30k. Which is a Is accounting is undistorted. better indicator? Accounting profit or Economic profit a good value? Profitable is metric? not the same as cash Cash flow is the basis for economic value generating. • Which would you rather receive? $100 in cash flow or $100 in accounting profit? • Economic value is more useful a tool If cash flow is more useful than accounting profit • How do we use economic value as the measure to steer the direction of our business? Source: adapted from http://www.mckinsey.com/Client_Service/Corporate_Finance/Latest_thinking/Valuation 6 Differentiate or Die! – Why is value so important? © 2012 izamryan@gmai.com http://relevancefound.com
  • 8. Contents Why is value so important? What are the sources of value? What are the mega-trends that will impact us? How can we profit from it? Conclusion 7 Differentiate or Die! © 2012 izamryan@gmai.com http://relevancefound.com
  • 9. Value comes from two key components – ROIC and Growth Return on • ROIC = operating profit ÷ invested capital invested capital • Revenue growth = annual Cash flow rate of increase of top-line Revenues Revenue • Together these two growth measures gives an idea of Economic future cash flows value • We can then compare future cash flows against the business cost of capital • Value is created when ROIC Cost of Capital > cost of capital. • Value creation is accelerated in high-growth companies or operations in high-growth industries. Source: adapted from http://www.mckinsey.com/Client_Service/Corporate_Finance/Latest_thinking/Valuation 8 Differentiate or Die! – What are the sources of value? © 2012 izamryan@gmai.com http://relevancefound.com
  • 10. The key source of value is ROIC Cost and capital Price premium efficiency • Innovative business • Innovative products method • Quality • Unique resources Return on Invested • Brand Capital (ROIC) • Customer lock-in • Economies of scale • Scalable • Rational price discipline product/process Source: adapted from http://www.mckinsey.com/Client_Service/Corporate_Finance/Latest_thinking/Valuation 9 Differentiate or Die! – What are the sources of value? © 2012 izamryan@gmai.com http://relevancefound.com
  • 11. The Ansoff matrix is a tool that can be used to formulate growth strategies New Market portfolio Existing Existing New Product portfolio 10 Differentiate or Die! – What are the sources of value? © 2012 izamryan@gmai.com http://relevancefound.com
  • 12. Contents Why is value so important? What are the sources of value? What are the mega-trends that will impact us? How can we profit from it? Conclusion 11 Differentiate or Die! © 2012 izamryan@gmai.com http://relevancefound.com
  • 13. “We are shifting from a world where the key source of strategic advantage was in protecting and extracting value from a given set of knowledge stocks – into a world in which the focus of value creation is effective participation in knowledge flows” - NY Times Columnist, Thomas L. Friedman, 19 Jan 2010 12
  • 14. The Shift Index is our study of 3 indexes and 25 measures designed to make long-term performance trends more relevant and actionable Focus on connected individuals. Competitive Digital Talent and Widening gap The “topple” intensity has infra has consumers between rate has more doubled in huge have more “Winners” and the last 40 than doubled adoption power as “Losers” years rate competition intensifies and networks grow in power. 13 Differentiate or Die! – What are the mega-trends that will impact us? © 2012 izamryan@gmai.com http://relevancefound.com
  • 15. What is the common thread that ties these findings together? 14 Differentiate or Die! – What are the mega-trends that will impact us? © 2012 izamryan@gmai.com http://relevancefound.com
  • 16. The Shift Index is our study of 3 indexes and 25 measures designed to make long-term performance trends more relevant and actionable Competitive pressures are making it harder to achieve strong results We are lagging behind the potential to tap on this huge potential Focus on connected individuals. Competitive Digital Talent and Widening gap The “topple” intensity has infra has consumers between rate has more doubled in huge have more “Winners” and the last 40 than doubled adoption power as “Losers” years rate competition intensifies and networks grow in power. 15 Differentiate or Die! – What are the mega-trends that will impact us? © 2012 izamryan@gmai.com http://relevancefound.com
  • 17. The biggest mega-trend of our lifetimes is the “Big Shift” Foundation wave Flow wave Impact wave Technology will break Knowledge, capital & A fundamental shift as the world; talent will flow across institutions are created the landscape; not for scalable And re-make it in its efficiency (size) but for image. Transforming it. scalable learning All market segments In the past, talent and (innovation). will feel the force of capital was In order to compete, digitization and the concentrated in companies must learn foundation wave will capitals, but as to create scalable sweep away old norms networks improve, infrastructure where of doing business, innovation will start to performance replacing them with the happen within and increases as more new. without 4 walls. participants join. 16 Differentiate or Die! – What are the mega-trends that will impact us? © 2012 izamryan@gmai.com http://relevancefound.com
  • 18. Contents Why is value so important? What are the sources of value? What are the mega-trends that will impact us? How can we profit from it? Conclusion 17 Differentiate or Die! © 2012 izamryan@gmai.com http://relevancefound.com
  • 19. Value comes from two key components – ROIC and Growth Return on invested capital Cash flow Revenue growth Economic value Cost of Capital Source: adapted from http://www.mckinsey.com/Client_Service/Corporate_Finance/Latest_thinking/Valuation 18 Differentiate or Die! – How can we profit from it? © 2012 izamryan@gmai.com http://relevancefound.com
  • 20. Business model canvas is a tool to describe business models. Once a business model is described, it can be improved upon. Visualizing it this way can help uncover hidden linkages, opportunities and risks. Key Key Value Customer Customer partners activities propositions relationships segments Who are our “Key What key activities do What value do we What type of For whom are we partners”, what “Key our “Value deliver to the relationship do our creating value? activities” do they propositions” require? customer? “Customer segments” perform and what “Key expect us to establish resources” do they and maintain? bring to our business? Key Channels resources Through which What key resources do channels do our our “Value “Customer segments” propositions” require? want to be reached? Cost structure Revenue streams What are the most important costs inherent in our business For what value are our customers really willing model? Which “Key activities” / “Key resources” are the most to pay? What do they currently pay and how much would expensive? they prefer to pay? What is the contribution of each stream to total revenues? Source: adapted from http://www.businessmodelgeneration.com/ 19 Differentiate or Die! – How can we profit from it? © 2012 izamryan@gmai.com http://relevancefound.com
  • 21. Let’s take an example of the “traditional” music record business Key Key Value Customer Customer partners activities propositions relationships segments Distribution channels Finding talent “We help bring new Mass market unfound talent to the Marketing market with hit records” Super-star artists and hits Key Channels resources Retail outlets Protected content Radio & TV Cost structure Revenue streams Talent “production” Huge revenues from a small portfolio of artists Marketing Source: adapted from http://www.slideshare.net/Alex.Osterwalder/long-tail-business-models-presentation 20 Differentiate or Die! – How can we profit from it? © 2012 izamryan@gmai.com http://relevancefound.com
  • 22. Now compare that with an innovative business model that harnesses “The Shift” change that is happening 21
  • 23. Take the example of MySpace Key Key Value Customer Customer partners activities propositions relationships segments Content producers Platform management “We create a platform Communities 100’s of niche where musicians can segments : be heard and fans can discover new music” • electro pop, • dirty disco, Catering to every • hard house, Key musical taste Channels • euro trash, resources • dub step Match-making fans with • vocal trance new music Online • drum and bass Breadth of platform • progressive rock • heavy metal • K-pop • etc) Cost structure Revenue streams Platform maintenance Advertising revenues from its huge user base Source: adapted from http://www.slideshare.net/Alex.Osterwalder/long-tail-business-models-presentation 22 Differentiate or Die! – How can we profit from it? © 2012 izamryan@gmai.com http://relevancefound.com
  • 24. Here are some areas which we can explore once we have a firm business model sketched out New segments New value and partners proposition for for more more ROIC Growth Maximizing Economic value in a Shifted world? Components Unbundling missing from components the pattern from the model Linkages between existing components 23 Differentiate or Die! – How can we profit from it? © 2012 izamryan@gmai.com http://relevancefound.com
  • 25. Contents Why is value so important? What are the sources of value? What are the mega-trends that will impact us? How can we profit from it? Conclusion 24 Differentiate or Die! © 2012 izamryan@gmai.com http://relevancefound.com
  • 26. M&A up-cycle will likely continue in 2012. Global macro factors of low interest rates, improving equity markets and the Euro crisis will likely contribute to increasing M&A activity, particularly in emerging markets. Priority in a Markets punishing M&A focus on M&A affordability “Shifted” world conglomerates emerging markets M&A will be a key M&A affordability index Large conglomerates Acquirers will be looking opportunity for growth in is at its historical highest may be inclined to divest for growth, and with the an environment of • Gap between implied non-core businesses Euro crisis, growth will sluggish growth valuation of A rated • Stock markets valuing likely be in emerging • The Shift Index has debts, versus large conglomerates markets. highlighted falling • The implied valuation at a discount • As regulatory ROA across the of broad stock market • And markets seem to frameworks and industries indices be placing greater capital markets • The study also value on pure plays develop in emerging • This means that debt highlighted the markets, so too will financing is affordable • Spinoff transactions widening gap between deal flow and easy to obtain, generally being well the winners and the which can be used to received by the • China outbound losers finance mergers & market. theme, particularly in • Innovation is not acquisitions the natural resources something that comes sector, will likely easily to all continue. corporates, so M&A can be a “quick win” Source: adapted from http://www.db.com/en/media/Deutsche_Bank_--_The_Markets_in_2012_-_Foresight_with_Insight.pdf 25 Differentiate or Die! - Conclusion © 2012 izamryan@gmai.com http://relevancefound.com
  • 27. My challenge to you – take what I’ve given you and make it your own, make it better! Think holistically about the pieces & how fit together The sources of Maximizing The importance value these maximizes of value our Value (ROIC) (g) Biz models must We are living in be repositioned Differentiate ROA are falling a time of ultra- to take or Die ! competition advantage of the Big Shift M&A will play an Difficult to increasingly Innovate to stay institutionalize important role in ahead an “innovative the search for “culture growth 26 Differentiate or Die! - Conclusion © 2012 izamryan@gmai.com http://relevancefound.com
  • 28. Questions & Answers 27 Deloitte PowerPoint timesaver – September 2011
  • 29. Relevance Found Relevant … Reliable … Material This publication contains general information only, and the author is not by means of this publication, rendering professional advice or services. Before making any decision or taking any action that may affect your finances or your business, you should consult a qualified professional adviser. The author shall not be responsible for any loss whatsoever sustained by any person who relies on this publication. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 444 Castro Street, Suite 900, Mountain View, California, 94041, USA. Presentation © 2012 Pengiran Izam Ryan Bahrin izamryan@gmail.com Images remain the property of their respective owners.

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. Hi everybody. Firstly I want to thank ICAEW and the Singapore Polytechnic for extending the invitation for me to speak to you today. I’m excited to be here and I hope this will be as much fun for you guys as it was for me pulling it together.
  2. When I was researching this speaking engagement, the first thing I did was to Google you guys and to ask questions to your faculty in order to get to know you guys a bit better.So here’s what I think. You guys are at an inflection point. You are final year students at the brink of change.So today I want to discuss with you, some tools and strategies for us to create the future.The best way to predict the future, is to create it.Because after all, we all want you guys to succeed. Succeed in your diplomas, and your future careers.We want to see you guys at the pinnacle there to shout out … “All of your bases is belong to us!” or maybe “I’m the king of he world!”So are you guys ready? Let’s go!
  3. (1) I graduated from University with a degree in Accounting.(2) I’m an ICAEW chartered accountant, and I can say this is one of the best things I have chosen to do in my career. The global recognition of being an ICAEW member is un-matched. I highly recommend to each of you that if you’re thinking of a career in finance, the ACA is one of the best qualifications you can seek to obtain.(3) I’ve had 5 years of work experience after qualifying. (4) In a previous job I took over from my company’s previous CFO when she was promoted to the CEO position. I developed, challenged and maintained biz plans and biz models for different initiatives and business units.(5) Big 4 firms in general take training and professional development very seriously. I’ve gone through several years of continuing professional development.(6) I used to be in external audit, and this is where I gained some of my core financial analysis skills.(7) I’ve worked with clients on some interesting projects. One of the more important skills you’ll learn in your careers is project management.(8) I’m currently working in Deloitte’s M&A team. We help investors maximise the value they gain from their deals, their mergers & their acquisitions. My team of professionals are called on by our clients to be their eyes & ears on the ground. We’re a special forces unit you call in when you want to do one of your most transformational business changes.(9) Hi, this is me. You can just call me Izam – it sounds like iPhone, iPod, iMac. I’m on Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn, Google+. Come and say hi to me after this seminar if you like. I’m planning on posting these slides up on my blog.
  4. So when your Faculty invited me here through the ICAEW, I was asked to present on the M&A outlook, given the uncertain economic environment we operate in.So I started to structure this presentation using a mindmap to help organize my thoughts.All of business activity, whether it’s new product development, expanding in new markets, finding cost efficiencies or in doing M&A deals, is all about Value. So in our flow of discussion we’re first going to start talking about Value, why it’s important, what are the sources of Value.Then we’ll talk about the mega-trends that will impact our world.And finally when we conclude, we’ll talk about how those mega-trends will shape our perceptions of Value in the future, ways we can develop strategies to create value in a world that is hit by these tsunami mega-trends and the implications on the M&A cycle.
  5. I’m going to show you two different businesses, and I’d like for you guys to tell me, which would you rather invest in?“Value” Incorporated makes a million bucks of revenues a year. They profit $100k on an annual investment of $25k.“Volume” Incorporated does the same – a million bucks of revenues and the same $100 annual profit. Except that Volume needs an investment of $50k. Which would you rather invest in?
  6. In the previous example, both companies had the same profit. So I ask you this question …Is accounting profit a good metric?Well, “profit” has it’s limitations. Cash flow on the other hand is not distorted the same way that accounting profit can be distorted. Being profitable is not the same as being cash generative.So here are some of the problems with accounting profit.Cash flow is the basis for economic value.So if cash flow is better, how do we use cash flow information to steer the direction of our business?
  7. ROICTwo measures togetherCompared to cost of capitalEconomic value.So if ROIC and Revenue growth are the two keys – what can we do to increase these? I’ll show you on the following two slides.
  8. Michael Porter’s framework is probably the most widely used for thinking about sources of competitive advantage. Porter gives us two generic strategies for developing a competitive advantage - Through becoming “value differentiators”, who can charge a price premium. That just means they target the high-end market and sell things more expensively than the competition because they can. Or they become “cost leaders”, who can afford to give discounts and attract more sales that way.Let’s use an example of the milk tea market segment in Singapore. You guys like Gong Cha right? So one way Gong Cha can improve is through creating a new style of drink. Maybe a special kind of a drink that only they have the secret recipe for.Have you tried the milk tea from other vendors? Gong Cha may try to differentiate through the taste and quality of their milk tea.Maybe Gong Cha will try and increase their brand value by partnering with other brands. K-Pop, anybody?Maybe Gong Cha will introduce a customer loyalty program. Buy 5 drinks, free 1 drink. This refers to the economic situation where one competitor acts as a leader and others quickly replicate its prices moves. So for example, if Gong Cha raised prices by 5%, and all other milk tea vendors did the same, then Gong Cha would have a temporary competitive advantage during the 5% increase. Another example of this might be taxi fares in Singapore.There’s a competitor to Gong Cha, let’s call it the New Tea Hut. Maybe instead of brewing the drinks as the customer orders it, they engineer their menu so that all drinks use only 1 of 3 different bases, then they brew the bases in bulk, thus reducing average cost per beverage.Let’s say the New Tea Hut also has an exclusive right to a particularly brand of brewed tea that gives it special pricing. That’s a unique resource.This just means that the average cost per unit becomes lower, the more that they produce. A scalable business is one where the marginal cost of servicing one more customer is low. In our example, it may be that because of New Tea Hut’s method of brewing tea reduces the cost of ingredients and holding inventory, so New Tea Hut is able to afford more stalls around Singapore. Because New Tea Hut has a wider distribution channel, they can flood the market with New Tea but Gong Cha is still stuck with it’s current stalls. This could be an example of a scalable biz, because now New Tea has more fixed costs, their focus will be in scaling up their volume.
  9. New market, new product. OK in this example we’re going to use Ferrari. Let’s say Ferrari wanted to bring out a new line of motorcycles. That’s completely a whole new market that it’s going to compete in, with a brand new product.Let me tell you guys a little bit more about the F430 challenge. This is a racing series put on by Ferrari for Ferrari owners. Since each car is exactly the same, the playing field is level. This is the same F430 Ferrari, the same product, but it’s being targeted to a different market segment.New product, same market.The car on the left is a 430, the one on the right, a 458. The 458 replaces the 430. This one is a simple strategy to understand, it just means, make more products for the same segment you serve.This is the Las Vegas Ferrari show room. This strategy just means, sell the same products and through the same channels.One thing you should observe from this is – the further out to the right and outwards you get, the more riskier it becomes for the business.
  10. OK now let’s talk about some of the mega-trends that are going to impact us in our lifetimes. If you can master an understanding of Value and the sources of value, and ride the wave of this mega-trend, then you would put yourself in a very good position for the future.
  11. I came across this quote last year. Tell me, what do you guys think when you read that? To me, when I read that, I think … The world of business that my parents operated in is no more. The previous mentality of “I must protect my ricebowl” and jealously guarding resources is from a previous era.In today’s world it’s not about stopping other people from extracting value from your ricebowl. It’s about working out how to leverage other people’s talents so that you can tap an even broader base of ricebowls, all the while sharing your resources and accelerating past the competition.So I was thinking … how can I help you guys better understand this trend?
  12. Let me introduce to you the Shift Index. It is a Deloitte study of 3 indexes and 25 measures designed to make long-term performance trends more relevant and actionable. Here are some of the key findings of the 25 measures.The first is a very human observation. Focus on connected individuals.Talent and consumers have more power as competition intensifies and networks grow in power. How many of you guys have heard of this blogger “Xia Xue” ?The widening gap between “Winners” and “Losers”. The study compared the ROA of the top companies versus the ROA of the bottom companies and found that the gap is widening. But that’s not all – the winners barely maintained their previous profits, while the losers lost money faster than before.The rate at which big companies lose their leadership positions has more than doubled. You just have to look at who were the “new hotness” technology companies in 1990, versus 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2010. Most of those names have changed over time. We all used to think Nokia could do no wrong, now Apple is king of the hill.Falling customer loyalty and increased number of new entrants. So not only are customer more picky, but they have more choice to pick from!Now it’s kind of given that everyone has a smartphone, that everyone can have real-time responses to messages. Let me share with you, my friend who is a banker here in Singapore gets worried if I don’t respond to his emails within 30 minutes. He always expects my real-time responses, so if I don’t reply fast he knows something is up!
  13. Let me summarise some of the key findings of the report for you graphically. As an aside, FYI Deloitte is a market leader in the Data Analytics space, and in Singapore we have a significant investment in our Analytics practice. There was an article not too long ago saying that one of the hottest jobs in 2012 & after is Data Analytics specialists.This word cloud emphasises some of the key concepts of the index, but let me show you what I felt was most important.These are the key words for me: Shift, Knowledge, ROA, Flows, Talent.ROA is falling now because we are now struggling with the ultra-competitive environment. Our productivity has not yet caught upto the new demands of the ultra-connected consumers.
  14. To me, this is the thread that ties these 5 factors together. This is the root cause for the 5 effects we can see.So … how? How do we take this understanding and use it to create a strategy that is sensitive to this problem?
  15. So exactly what IS the Big Shift? At Deloitte our point of view is that the Big Shift will happen in three waves.The foundation wave.The flow wave.The Impact wave.
  16. (1) So we know that ROIC and Growth are the sources of value. But how do we translate that in to strategy? How do tie this all together in a cohesive form that shows how we create a competitive advantage?(2) Let me introduce you to the business model canvas.
  17. (0) A tool to describe business models. Once a business model is described, it can be improved upon. Visualizing it this way can help uncover hidden linkages, opportunities and risks. Let me walk you through the different components of the canvas:The rocks represents creating value. The key represents the key customer segments.This represents the channels we use to sell our value proposition to the customer segmentsHow do our customers want to interact with our value proposition ?This represents the different revenue streams. What all these have in common is that these are outwards from the value proposition to the customer. These show how the value proposition ties to the value from revenue streams.This represents the resources we need to fuel our value propositionThe shoes represent the activities we need to perform to deliver the value proposition.This represents our partner network.The measuring tape represents our cost structure.What all these have in common is that these flow from our partners to the value proposition. These show how the value proposition ties to the value from revenue streams.
  18. (0)Let’s flesh out the Canvas by using a real-world example.Here I’ve got an example of a “traditional” music record business. Let’s say their value proposition is in “we help bring new unfound talent to the market with hit records”.They’re targeting the mass marketThey don’t develop any customer relationships at allThe revenue stream is one-off sales to the mass market. Merchandising, CDs, DVDs, etc.The key resource that they try to protect very tightly is their content. Think of SOPA.Key activities of a music label include finding talent, and marketing that talent.A record label’s key partners are the HMV’s and the CD music shops.Their costs are mostly in talent production and marketing.
  19. (0) Now let’s compare it with MySpaceHere the value proposition is very different. MySpace “creates a platform where musicians can be heard and fans can discover new music”.They’re targeting the “long tail” of niche segmentsMySpace does something very different here – they create the platform for communities to developThe revenue stream is from advertising on the MySpace site.The key resource that they have is the breadth of the platform and ability to cater to 100’s of niche segments. This is just prohibitively expensive to do for a traditional music label because of the cost of carrying and maintaining inventory.Key activities of MySpace is in managing the platform.MySpace’s key partners are the musicians producing material for the platform.MySpace’s costs are in platform maintenance. They have a great platform that is scalable.Finally, the last thing I want to show you is the virtuous circle created here. As more users are drawn to the breadth of the platform, MySpace is able to generate more advertising revenues. This creates a feedback loop that gets stronger. This is one of the things you need to look out for in business models – the inter-relationships between the components.
  20. (0) So how do we make more money from this? How do we create more value? Here are some areas which we can explore once we have a business model sketched outAnd the key theme we need to remember is … how do we maximize economic value in a Shifted world? The business model canvas can be used to conceptualize the value proposition, and it’s a tool that we can use to generate more ideas.Unbundling components from the model. Once we have visualized the canvas, we can see which areas we can unbundle from the model, and separate out, or to replace.Linkages between existing components. In the previous example I showed you a virtuous circle, a feedback loop that is created from the different components. This is one of the ways to create a powerful and profitable business model.Components missing from the pattern. Once you’ve worked with a few business models, you will start to recognize patterns and you’ll be able to see how a model can be improved .New segments and partners for more Growth. Probably the most important aspect of the canvas is that it forces businesses to focus on the customer needs and how to address them through partnering. This customer-focus is sadly missing in some of today’s businesses.
  21. (0) Now let’s put everything we talked about in the context of the current market environment.Priority in a “Shifted” world. M&A will be a key opportunity for growth.M&A affordability is at its highest historical levelMarkets are favoring “pure-play” business models.M&A focus on emerging markets.