Jack Griffin, CEO, Empirical Media gives his predictions of the four biggest trends that will affect media and information services in 2014.
www.empiricalmedia.com
3. an empirical approach
A continuous process of understanding
what is out in the open and constantly
looking for what is hidden from view
3
4. “
A new medium is never an addition to
an old one, nor does it leave the old
one in peace. It never ceases to
oppress the older media until it finds
new shapes and positions for them.
”
– Marshall McLuhan, 1964
4
5. Two Kinds of Disruptors
ones we CAN see
ones we MIGHT NOT see
5
19. What Has Happened?
§ Disconnection of media/entertainment products from physical devices
§ Unbundling of content sections from one another
§ From producer in control to customer in control
§ From opt-out to opt-in
19
20. The Opt-in World
§ 50% of Americans now own
a Tablet or E-Reader
§ 56% own a SmartPhone
Source: Pew Research, 2013 and 2014
20
26. A Framework for Managing Disruption
an empirical approach
GREY
AREAS
SILVER
LININGS
WHITE
SPACES
A continuous process of understanding
what is out in the open
and constantly looking for what
is hidden from view
26
27. A Framework for Managing Disruption
an empirical approach
GREY
AREAS
“Understanding
& Inquiring”
SILVER
LININGS
WHITE
SPACES
“Optimizing
& Executing”
“Imagining
& Extending”
27
28. GREY AREAS - “Understanding & Inquiring”
Some Empirical Questions
§ What has the customer hired us to do?
GREY
AREAS
§ What are the real economics?
§ Who is the real competition?
§ What drives what?
28
30. SILVER LININGS - “Optimizing & Executing”
Some Empirical Questions
§ What is (or could be) valuable?
§ What is unique?
SILVER
LININGS
§ What is working and what is not?
§ What do the data tell us?
§ What are the patterns?
§ What do we need to stop doing?
30
31. THE NEW YORK TIMES: Executing Silver Linings
727K
Mobile Redesign Midyear 2013
Digital
Subscriptions
+28%
Q3 2013
Website Redesign January 2014
31
New York Times Press Release, October 2013
32. WHITE SPACES - “Imagining & Extending”
Some Empirical Questions
§ What do we have permission to do?
WHITE
SPACES
§ What kind of culture do we need?
§ What capabilities will we need to add?
§ What do we build? What do we acquire?
32
35. According to Reed Hastings
§ A highly-successful process-driven company
- With leading share in its market
- Minimal thinking required
- Few mistakes made – very efficient
- Few curious innovator-mavericks remain
- Very optimized processes for its existing market
35
Source: Reed Hastings, Working at Netflix; Aug 01, 2009
36. Then the Market Shifts…
§ Market shifts due to new technology or new competitors
or new business models
§ Company is unable to adapt quickly, because the
employees are extremely good at following the existing
processes, and process adherence is the value system
§ Company generally grinds painfully into irrelevance, due
to inability to respond to the market shift
36
Source: Reed Hastings, Working at Netflix; Aug 01, 2009
37. The best managers figure out how to get great outcomes
by setting the appropriate context,
rather than by trying to control their people.
37
Source: Reed Hastings, Working at Netflix; Aug 01, 2009
38. Context, not Control
Provide the insight and understanding to enable sound decisions
CONTEXT
§ Strategy
§ Metrics
§ Assumptions
§ Objectives
§ Clearly-defined roles
§ Knowledge of the stakes
§ Transparency around
decision-making
CONTROL
§ Top-down decision-making
§ Management approval
§ Committees
§ Planning and process valued
more than results
38
Source: Reed Hastings, Working at Netflix; Aug 01, 2009
39. With the Right People,
Instead of a Culture of Process Adherence,
Culture of Freedom and Responsibility,
Innovation and Self-Discipline
39
Source: Reed Hastings, Working at Netflix; Aug 01, 2009
40. What Will Jeff Bezos Do?
GREY
AREAS
SILVER
LININGS
WHITE
SPACES
40
41. “ ”
Ever tried. Ever failed.
No matter. Try again.
Fail again. Fail better.
– Samuel Beckett
GREY
AREAS
41
42. “
We shall not cease from exploration
And the end of all our exploring
Will be to arrive where we started
And know the place for the first time.
”
– T. S. Eliot, Four Quartets
WHITE
SPACES
42