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Early Lessons Learned in Applying
    Big Data To TV Advertising




          ARF September 12, 2011
Jack Smith, Chief Product Officer, Simulmedia
About	
  Us	
  
               Who	
  We	
  Are	
   We	
  are	
  a	
  New	
  York	
  based	
  start-­‐up.	
  We	
  are	
  venture	
  backed	
  by	
  Avalon	
  
                                    Ventures,	
  Union	
  Square	
  Ventures	
  and	
  Time-­‐Warner.	
  


  Where	
  We	
  Have	
  Been	
   Our	
  35	
  person	
  team	
  has	
  veterans	
  of:	
  




         What	
  We	
  Believe	
   Television	
  is	
  sHll	
  the	
  most	
  powerful	
  adverHsing	
  medium	
  in	
  the	
  world.	
  
                                   While	
  addressability	
  will	
  come,	
  we’re	
  not	
  waiHng	
  for	
  it.	
  We’ve	
  taken	
  a	
  few	
  
                                   strategies	
  we	
  learned	
  from	
  the	
  Internet	
  and	
  are	
  applying	
  it	
  to	
  linear	
  TV	
  
                                   adverHsing,	
  today.	
  

           How	
  We	
  Do	
  It	
   Through	
  partnerships	
  with	
  major	
  data	
  providers,	
  we	
  have	
  assembled	
  the	
  
                                     world’s	
  largest	
  set	
  of	
  acHonable	
  television	
  data.	
  
                                     	
  
                                     	
  
  How	
  We	
  Make	
  Money	
   	
   sell	
  television	
  adverHsing.	
  With	
  inventory	
  in	
  over	
  106	
  million	
  US	
  
                                     We	
  
                                     households,	
  we	
  can	
  cost-­‐effecHvely	
  extend	
  reach	
  into	
  high-­‐value	
  target	
  
                                     	
  
                                     audiences	
  across	
  virtually	
  any	
  adverHser	
  category.	
  We	
  use	
  big	
  data	
  and	
  
                                     science	
  to	
  do	
  this.	
  
                                                                                                                                                        2	
  
Why	
  Did	
  We	
  Leave	
  The	
  Web?	
  

                              Television	
  remains	
  the	
  dominant	
  consumer	
  medium	
  




 (a)	
  Nielsen	
  US	
  TV	
  Viewing	
  Audicence	
  TradiHonal	
  Live-­‐Only	
  TV	
  based	
  on	
  average	
  monthly	
  viewing	
  during	
  1Q2011.	
  	
  Internet	
  and	
  Online	
  Video	
  based	
  on	
  average	
  monthly	
  consumpHon	
  during	
  July	
  2011.	
  	
  
 Video	
  on	
  Demand	
  based	
  on	
  consumpHon	
  during	
  May	
  2011.	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              3	
  
TV	
  Spend	
  Is	
  Increasing	
  




Source:	
  MAGNAGLOBAL	
  
                                             4	
  
Audience	
  Is	
  FragmenEng	
  




Source:	
  Nielsen	
  via	
  TVbythenumbers.com	
  
                                                      5	
  
Campaign	
  Reach	
  Is	
  Declining	
  

                                          Impossible	
  for	
  measurement	
  and	
  planning	
  tools	
  to	
  keep	
  pace	
  	
  
                                                                                                	
  




Source:	
  Simulmedia	
  analysis	
  of	
  data	
  from	
  SQAD,	
  Nielsen	
  and	
  TVB	
                                            6	
  
Big	
  Data	
  



                  Highly	
  ConfidenHal	
  
Big	
  Data	
  Is	
  Driving	
  Growth	
  


         “We	
  are	
  on	
  the	
  cusp	
  of	
  a	
  tremendous	
  wave	
  of	
  
        innova;on,	
  produc;vity	
  and	
  growth,	
  as	
  well	
  as	
  
        new	
  modes	
  of	
  compe;;on	
  and	
  value-­‐capture	
  –	
  
                           all	
  driven	
  by	
  Big	
  Data.”
                                                              	
  
                                                                                               	
  
                                           -­‐	
  McKinsey	
  Global	
  InsHtute,	
  May	
  2011




                 “For	
  CMOs,	
  Big	
  Data	
  is	
  a	
  very	
  big	
  deal.”
                                                                                	
  
                           -­‐	
  Alfredo	
  Gangotena,	
  CMO,	
  Mastercard,	
  July	
  2011	
  



                                                                                                      8	
  
Size	
  Is	
  RelaEve	
  



                     1	
  byte	
  x	
  1000	
  =	
  1	
  kilobyte	
  
                        …x	
  1000	
  =	
  1	
  megabyte	
  
                          …x	
  1000	
  =	
  1	
  gigabyte	
  
                          …x	
  1000	
  =	
  1	
  terabyte	
  
                          …x	
  1000	
  =	
  1	
  petabyte	
  
                           …x	
  1000	
  =	
  1	
  exabyte	
  	
  
                                           	
  


                                                                        9	
  
Size	
  Is	
  RelaEve	
  

                                                      Telegram	
  =	
  100	
  bytes	
  
                                                                            	
  




 Data	
  ©	
  1997-­‐2011,	
  James	
  S.	
  Huggins	
  hfp://www.jamesshuggins.com/h/tek1/how_big.htm	
  
                                                                                                             10	
  
Size	
  Is	
  RelaEve	
  

                                   Page	
  of	
  an	
  Encyclopedia	
  =	
  100	
  kilobytes	
  
                                                                            	
  




 Data	
  ©	
  1997-­‐2011,	
  James	
  S.	
  Huggins	
  hfp://www.jamesshuggins.com/h/tek1/how_big.htm	
  
                                                                                                             11	
  
Size	
  Is	
  RelaEve	
  

                                 Pickup	
  truck	
  bed	
  full	
  of	
  paper	
  =	
  1	
  gigabyte	
  	
  
                                                                            	
  




 Data	
  ©	
  1997-­‐2011,	
  James	
  S.	
  Huggins	
  hfp://www.jamesshuggins.com/h/tek1/how_big.htm	
  
                                                                                                               12	
  
Size	
  Is	
  RelaEve	
  

           EnHre	
  print	
  collecHon	
  of	
  the	
  Library	
  of	
  Congress	
  =	
  10	
  terabytes	
  
                                                                            	
  




 Data	
  ©	
  1997-­‐2011,	
  James	
  S.	
  Huggins	
  hfp://www.jamesshuggins.com/h/tek1/how_big.htm	
  
                                                                                                               13	
  
Size	
  Is	
  RelaEve	
  

                           All	
  hard	
  drives	
  produced	
  in	
  1995	
  =	
  20	
  petabytes	
  	
  
                                                                            	
  




 Data	
  ©	
  1997-­‐2011,	
  James	
  S.	
  Huggins	
  hfp://www.jamesshuggins.com/h/tek1/how_big.htm	
  
                                                                                                             14	
  
Size	
  Is	
  RelaEve	
  

                                       All	
  printed	
  material	
  =	
  200	
  petabytes	
  	
  
                                                                            	
  




 Data	
  ©	
  1997-­‐2011,	
  James	
  S.	
  Huggins	
  hfp://www.jamesshuggins.com/h/tek1/how_big.htm	
  
                                                                                                             15	
  
But	
  Big	
  Data	
  Is	
  More	
  Than	
  Size	
  

                              	
                  	
                   BIG	
  DATA	
  
                              	
                  	
                         	
  
                         What	
            Why	
  did	
  it	
   What’s	
  going	
  to	
  
                       happened?	
         happen?	
            happen	
  next?	
  

           Time:	
          Past	
                                       Future	
  
          Focus:	
       ReporHng	
                                    PredicHon	
  
      Supports:	
         Human	
                                     Machine	
  
                         decisions	
                                  decisions	
  
           Data:	
      Structured	
                                Unstructured	
  
                        Aggregated	
                                Unaggregated	
  
        Human	
         Dashboards	
                                 Discovery	
  
         Skills:	
         Excel	
                                  VisualizaHon	
  
                             	
                                  StaHsHcs	
  &	
  Physics	
  
                                                                                                16	
  
AcceleraEng	
  The	
  Push	
  To	
  Big	
  Data	
  


 Hadoop,	
  cloud	
  compuHng,	
  Facebook,	
  Yahoo,	
  
quants,	
  Biforrent,	
  machine	
  learning,	
  Stanford,	
  
      large	
  hadron	
  collider,	
  Wal-­‐Mart,	
  text	
  
  processing,	
  Amazon	
  S3	
  &	
  EC2,	
  open	
  source	
  
   intelligence,	
  NoSQL,	
  social	
  media,	
  Google,	
  
 commodity	
  hardware,	
  Hive,	
  fraud	
  detecHon,	
  
 trading	
  desks,	
  MapReduce,	
  natural	
  language	
  
                       processing	
  	
  
                                                             17	
  
What	
  Can	
  It	
  Mean	
  For	
  TV	
  AdverEsing?	
  

            Big	
  data	
  drove	
  the	
  rise	
  of	
  web	
  &	
  search	
  adver;sing	
  
        	
  
        •  AccumulaHon	
  of	
  high	
  volume	
  of	
  direct	
  measurement	
  
             of	
  media	
  consumpHon	
  
        •  Befer	
  predicHons	
  about	
  consumer	
  interests	
  
        •  Real	
  Hme	
  return	
  path	
  
        •  AutomaHon	
  
        •  Interim	
  step	
  for	
  addressability	
  
        •  More	
  diligence	
  around	
  consumer	
  privacy	
  
        •  Media	
  buyers	
  and	
  sellers	
  rethinking	
  their	
  approach	
  to	
  
             audience	
  packaging,	
  campaign	
  planning,	
  technology,	
  
             data	
  assembly	
  and	
  people	
  

                                                                                                18	
  
Post	
  Modern	
  Architecture	
  

              Have	
  we	
  reached	
  the	
  limits	
  of	
  classic	
  data	
  storage	
  architecture?	
  




Data	
  Warehouses	
                                                                            Data	
  Lakes	
  
•               Yahoo!:	
  700	
  tb1	
  	
                                                     •  Facebook:	
  30	
  pb3	
  (7x	
  
•               Australian	
  Bureau	
  of	
  StaHsHcs:	
  250	
  tb1	
                            compression)	
  
•               AT&T:	
  250	
  tb1	
                                                           •  Yahoo:	
  22	
  pb4	
  
•               Nielsen:	
  45	
  tb1	
                                                         •  Google:	
  ???	
  
                                                                                                	
  
•               Adidas:	
  13	
  tb1	
  
•               Wal-­‐Mart:	
  1	
  pb2	
  
	
  


       1	
  Oracle	
  F1Q10	
  Earnings	
  Call	
  September	
  16,	
  2009	
  Transcript	
  
       2	
  Stair,	
  Principles	
  of	
  Informa;on	
  Systems,	
  2009,	
  p	
  181	
  
       3	
  Dhruba	
  Borthakur,	
  Facebook,	
  December	
  2010,	
  hfp://www.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=468211193919	
  
       4	
  Simulmedia	
  esHmate	
                                                                                                    19	
  
       	
  
Our	
  Idea	
  of	
  Big	
  Data	
  

                          Bringing	
  the	
  data	
  set	
  together	
  in	
  a	
  single	
  plaMorm	
  
                                                                                                   Client	
                Nielsen	
  
   Set	
  Top	
  Boxes	
            Program	
            Public	
     Ad	
  Occurrence	
  
                                                                                                Proprietary	
              RaHngs	
  
  • 17+	
  million	
           • 3	
  different	
     •  US census     •  What ads            • Business	
             • All	
  Minute	
  
    boxes	
                      sets	
  of	
        •  Military         ran?                  Development	
            Respondent	
  
  • Completely	
                 schedule	
          •  Business      •  Where did             Indices	
  (BDI)	
       Level	
  Data	
  
    anonymous	
                  data	
                                  they run?           • Commercial	
             (AMRLD)	
  
    viewing	
                  • Proprietary	
                                                 Development	
  
     •  Live	
                   metadata	
                                                    Indices	
  (CDI)	
  
     •  DVR	
                                                                                • Regional	
  
     •  VOD	
                                                                                  sales	
  data	
  
     •  Pay	
  channels	
  



   Our	
  (comparaHvely	
  modest)	
  data	
  set:	
  
   •  200	
  tb	
  (approx.	
  7x	
  compression)	
  
   •  113,858,592	
  daily	
  events	
  
   •  Approximately	
  402,301	
  weekly	
  ads	
  
   •  Double	
  capacity	
  every	
  6	
  months	
  
   …And	
  we	
  don’t	
  load	
  every	
  data	
  point	
  across	
  all	
  data	
  sets,	
  yet	
  
   	
                                                                                                                                    20	
  
Rethinking	
  Media	
  Data	
  Architecture	
  

   Applying	
  big	
  data	
  to	
  television	
  required	
  us	
  to	
  rethink	
  what	
  our	
  
                        technical	
  architecture	
  should	
  be	
  

            Commodity	
             •  No	
  clouds	
  allowed	
  (ISO	
  compliance)	
  
             Hardware	
             •  Expect	
  hardware	
  failure	
  



           Open	
  Source	
         •  Learn	
  from	
  those	
  who	
  have	
  done	
  it	
  
            Sosware	
               •  ParHcipate	
  in	
  the	
  Open	
  Source	
  community	
  


                                    •  ELT	
  (Extract,	
  Load,	
  Transform)	
  
         Write	
  Your	
  Own	
  
                                    •  Meddle	
  
            Sosware	
  
                                    •  Machine	
  learning	
  


                                    •  Advanced	
  staHsHcal	
  techniques	
  
               Science	
  
                                    •  ExperimentaHon	
  
                                                                                                       21	
  
Some	
  Wrinkles	
  In	
  The	
  Matrix	
  




                                              22	
  
The	
  People	
  We	
  Needed	
  

               A	
  different	
  approach	
  required	
  different	
  skill	
  sets	
  

     •  New	
  core	
  skills	
  for	
  everyone	
  in	
  the	
  company	
  
          •    Pafern	
  recogniHon	
  
          •    VisualizaHon	
  
          •    Technology	
  
          •    ExperimentaHon	
  
     •  Where	
  do	
  you	
  find	
  hard	
  to	
  find	
  tech	
  skills?	
  
          •  You	
  don’t	
  find	
  them.	
  You	
  make	
  them.	
  
     •  A	
  dedicated	
  Science	
  team	
  
          •  Non	
  tradiHonal	
  researchers	
  (Brain	
  imaging,	
  bioinformaHcs,	
  
             economic	
  modeling,	
  geneHcs)	
  	
  
     •  People	
  who	
  watch	
  a	
  lot	
  of	
  television	
  


                                                                                            23	
  
10	
  Lessons	
  We’ve	
  Learned	
  



                              Highly	
  ConfidenHal	
  
Some	
  Things	
  To	
  Know,	
  First	
  

•  Live	
  viewing	
  unless	
  otherwise	
  noted	
  
     •  Time	
  shising	
  lessons	
  is	
  a	
  whole	
  other	
  presentaHon	
  
     •  Time	
  shising	
  +	
  live	
  viewing	
  lessons	
  is	
  a	
  whole	
  other	
  other	
  presentaHon	
  
     •  Video	
  on	
  demand	
  is	
  a	
  whole	
  other	
  other	
  other	
  presentaHon	
  
•  We	
  name	
  names	
  and	
  provide	
  numbers	
  where	
  clients	
  and	
  data	
  
   partners	
  permit	
  
     •  Client	
  confidenHality	
  is	
  important	
  to	
  us	
  
•  None	
  of	
  this	
  work	
  would’ve	
  been	
  possible	
  without	
  the	
  help	
  of	
  
   our	
  clients	
  and	
  partners	
  


                         This	
  box	
  will	
  contain	
  important	
              Read	
  me…	
  

                       informaHon	
  about	
  the	
  graphs	
  on	
  
                                                       each	
  page.	
  
                                                                                                                      25	
  
60%	
  of	
  TV	
  Viewers	
  Watch	
  
             90%	
  of	
  TV	
  


                                Highly	
  ConfidenHal	
  
Where	
  The	
  Other	
  40%	
  Are	
  


                                                                                           TCM                            13.6
                                                                                           HALLMARK                       13.7
                                                        Networks with
                                                        relatively fewer                   ADSWIM                         14.0
                                                        lighter viewer                     NICKNITE                       14.3
                                                        impressions                        CNBC                           15.7
                                                                                           FOX NEWS                       18.0




                                                                                              OXYGEN                       7.4
                                                        Networks with
                                                        relatively more                       WE                           7.6
                                                        lighter viewer                        PLANET                       7.7
 VerEcal:	
  RaHo	
  of	
  Heavy	
                      impressions                           GREEN
 Viewers	
  to	
  light	
  viewer	
                                                           OVATION                      7.8
 impressions.	
  	
  
                                                                                              STYLE                        7.8
 Horizontal:	
  Low	
  rated	
  to	
  
 Highly	
  rated	
  networks	
                                                                MTV2                         7.8
 Call	
  outs:	
  RaHo	
  is	
  the	
                                                         SUNDANCE                     7.9
 number	
  of	
  Heavier	
  
 Viewer	
  impressions	
  you	
                                                               IFC                          7.9
                                              Lower             Higher rated
 would	
  deliver	
  to	
  reach	
  a	
        rated             networks
 Lighter	
  Viewer	
  on	
  a	
  given	
     networks
 network	
                                                           Sources:	
  Nielsen	
  &	
  Simulmedia’s	
  a7	
      27	
  
Where	
  The	
  Other	
  40%	
  Are	
  

    To	
  capture	
  light	
  viewers,	
  media	
  planning	
  and	
  measurement	
  
    tools	
  must	
  quickly	
  apply	
  new	
  methods	
  to	
  emerging	
  data	
  sets	
  




                                                                                                28	
  
Quality	
  Control	
  Is	
  A	
  Full	
  
        Time	
  Job	
  


                                   Highly	
  ConfidenHal	
  
When	
  Data	
  Goes	
  Missing	
  
                                            AutomaHon	
  of	
  error	
  checking/
                                            quality	
  control	
  is	
  essenHal	
  
                                            	
  
                                            Reuse	
  the	
  data	
  to	
  solve	
  other	
  
                                            problems	
  
                                            	
  
                                            Occasionally	
  observe	
  missing	
  
                                            data	
  
                                            	
  
                                            Three	
  choices:	
  
                                                      •  Pick	
  up	
  the	
  phone	
  
                                                      •  EsHmate	
  missing	
  fields	
  	
  
                                                      •  Work	
  around	
  the	
  missing	
  
                                                         data	
  
                                            	
  
                                         Time	
  series	
  of	
  SYFY	
  
                                         network.	
  10645	
  
                                         observaEons	
  from	
  
                                         2010.02.28	
  at	
  7:00pm	
  
                                         Eastern	
  to	
  2010.10.14	
  at	
  
                                         12:30pm	
  Eastern	
  
                                                                                                30	
  
Source:	
  Simulmedia’s	
  a7	
  
More	
  Data	
  Really	
  Is	
  Befer	
  



                                 Highly	
  ConfidenHal	
  
DisambiguaEon:	
  The	
  Madonna	
  Problem	
  




                              OR	
  


          Pop	
  Icon?	
                      Religious	
  icon?	
  
                                                                       32	
  
The	
  RevoluEon	
  of	
  Simple	
  Methods	
  

                                                                                                             More	
  data	
  beats	
  
                                                                                                             beUer	
  algorithms.	
  
                                                                                                             	
  
                                                                                                             The	
  best	
  performing	
  
                                                                                                             algorithm	
  underperforms	
  
                                                                                                             the	
  worst	
  algorithm	
  when	
  
                                                                                                             given	
  an	
  order	
  of	
  
                                                                                                             magnitude	
  more	
  data.	
  	
  
                                                                                                             	
  
                                                                                                             Simple	
  algorithms	
  at	
  very	
  
                                                                                                             large	
  scale	
  can	
  help	
  befer	
  
 Peter	
  Norvig	
  |	
  Internet	
  Scale	
  Data	
  Analysis	
  |	
  June	
  21,	
  2010	
                 predict	
  audience	
  
                                                                                                             movement.	
  


Original	
  graph	
  sourced	
  from:	
  Banko	
  &	
  Brill,	
  2001.	
  Mi;ga;ng	
  the	
  paucity-­‐of-­‐data	
  problem:	
  exploring	
  the	
  effect	
  
of	
  training	
  corpus	
  size	
  on	
  classifier	
  performance	
  for	
  natural	
  language	
  processing             	
  	
                               33	
  
Packaging	
  Reach	
  

    Very	
  large	
  data	
  sets	
  beUer	
  predict	
  TV	
  audience	
  movements	
  




                  Peter	
  Norvig	
  |	
  Internet	
  Scale	
  Data	
  Analysis	
  |	
  June	
  21,	
  2010	
  
                                                                                                                  34	
  
The	
  Cost	
  Of	
  More	
  Data	
  

             More	
  data	
  drives	
  beUer	
  results	
  but	
  there	
  are	
  costs	
  



        	
                                          	
  
        •  All	
  data	
  online.	
  All	
  the	
   •  All	
  data	
  online.	
  All	
  the	
  
             Hme.	
                                      Hme.	
  
        •  Less	
  expensive	
  hardware	
   •  More	
  expensive	
  talent	
  
        •  Extremely	
  flexible	
                        •  Physicists	
  &	
  staHsHcians	
  
                                                            ain’t	
  cheap	
  
                                                         •  Hard	
  to	
  find	
  programmers	
  
                                                      •  Not	
  everything	
  meets	
  
                                                         your	
  needs	
  
                                                      •  Evolving	
  technologies	
  in	
  
                                                         mission	
  criHcal	
  funcHons	
          35	
  
The	
  Data	
  Isn’t	
  Biased	
  Just	
  
Because	
  It	
  Comes	
  From	
  A	
  
         Set	
  Top	
  Box	
  


                                  Highly	
  ConfidenHal	
  
Applying	
  Simple	
  Methods	
  At	
  Scale	
  

                                                                          High	
  correlaHon	
  of	
  a7	
  
                                                                          measures	
  and	
  Nielsen	
  
                                                                          esHmates.	
  
                                                                          	
  

                                                                          Either	
  bias	
  is	
  insignificant	
  or	
  
                                                                          Nielsen	
  data	
  and	
  our	
  data	
  
                                                                          share	
  the	
  same	
  bias.	
  
                                                                          	
  

                                                                          MulHple	
  methods	
  yield	
  
                                                                          similar	
  results	
  
                                                                          	
  
                                                     Regression	
  analysis	
  of	
  
                                                     Nielsen	
  Household	
  Cume	
  
                                                     RaEng	
  against	
  
                                                     Simulmedia’s	
  a7	
  cume	
  
                                                     raEng.	
  20	
  PrimeEme	
  
                                                     Network	
  shows	
  with	
  
Sources:	
  Nielsen	
  &	
  Simulmedia’s	
  a7	
  
                                                     HAWAII	
  FIVE-­‐0.	
  Fall	
  2010.	
  
                                                                                                                  37	
  
And	
  Then	
  We	
  Kept	
  Going	
  
    We	
  measured	
  program	
  Tune-­‐In,	
  Spot	
  Tune-­‐In,	
  Campaign	
  Reach,	
  
    Campaign	
  Ra;ng	
  using	
  mul;ple	
  slices	
  of	
  our	
  data	
  set	
  using	
  two	
  
                  different	
  sample	
  sets	
  and	
  ;me	
  frames	
  

How	
  we	
  sliced	
  it	
                                 Two	
  samples	
  
•  EnHre	
  a7	
  data	
  set	
  	
                         1.  Sample	
  1:	
  Fall	
  2010:	
  20	
  PrimeHme	
  
•  Cross	
  correlated	
  individual	
  data	
                  broadcast	
  series	
  launches	
  +	
  
   sets	
  contained	
  in	
  a7	
  aggregate	
                 promos	
  
                                                            2.  Sample	
  2:	
  Jan	
  2011:	
  15	
  PrimeHme	
  
   data	
  set	
  	
  
                                                                cable	
  series	
  premieres	
  +	
  promos	
  
•  Aggregate	
  cross	
  geographies	
                          (Plus	
  one	
  mulH-­‐season/year	
  
   (DMA	
  to	
  DMA)	
                                         primeHme	
  broadcast	
  premiere	
  +	
  
                                                                promos)	
  
ObservaEons	
  
•  Sample	
  1	
  average	
  r2>0.85	
                      •  Hand	
  selected	
  programs	
  	
  
•  Sample	
  2	
  average	
  r2>0.93	
                          •  Mix	
  of	
  genres	
  	
  
                                                                •  Mix	
  of	
  new	
  vs.	
  returning	
  shows	
  
                                                                                                               38	
  
Addressability	
  Is	
  Here	
  



                            Highly	
  ConfidenHal	
  
Closing	
  The	
  Loop	
  On	
  Program	
  PromoEon	
  




                                                          Spring	
  2010	
  broadcast	
  
                                                          premiere	
  promoEon.	
  
                                                          Horizontal:	
  Leb	
  to	
  right	
  moves	
  
                                                          back	
  in	
  Eme.	
  0	
  is	
  the	
  premiere	
  
                                                          Eme.	
  VerEcal:	
  Conversion	
  rate	
  
                                                          is	
  measured	
  in	
  percent.	
  Size	
  of	
  
Sources:	
  	
  Simulmedia’s	
  a7	
  
                                                          the	
  bubble	
  represents	
  total	
  
                                                          conversions	
  for	
  a	
  given	
  spot.	
  
                                                                                                                 40	
  
Closing	
  The	
  Loop	
  On	
  Program	
  PromoEon	
  




                                                          Spring	
  2010	
  broadcast	
  
                                                          premiere	
  promoEon.	
  
                                                          Horizontal:	
  Leb	
  to	
  right	
  moves	
  
                                                          back	
  in	
  Eme.	
  0	
  is	
  the	
  premiere	
  
                                                          Eme.	
  VerEcal:	
  Conversion	
  rate	
  
                                                          is	
  measured	
  in	
  percent.	
  Size	
  of	
  
Sources:	
  	
  Simulmedia’s	
  a7	
  
                                                          the	
  bubble	
  represents	
  total	
  
                                                          conversions	
  for	
  a	
  given	
  spot.	
  
                                                                                                                 41	
  
Closing	
  The	
  Loop	
  




  Long	
  held	
  beliefs	
  and	
  rules	
  of	
  thumb	
  in	
  planning	
  may	
  or	
  may	
  
                             not	
  be	
  supported	
  by	
  data    	
  
                                                   	
  
   TV	
  marketers	
  now	
  have	
  more	
  opHons	
  for	
  show	
  promoHon               	
  




                                                                                                     42	
  
Nielsen’s	
  RaHngs	
  Are	
  Good	
  
    (Surprisingly	
  Good)	
  


                              Highly	
  ConfidenHal	
  
Time	
  Series:	
  Broadcast:	
  CBS	
  

60	
  networks.	
  High	
  correla;on	
  between	
  Nielsen	
  large	
     Hour	
  by	
  hour	
  Hme	
  series	
  
                                                                           Mar	
  20	
  to	
  April	
  8,	
  2011.	
  Z	
  
         sample	
  measurement	
  and	
  a7	
  measures	
                  score	
  plots	
  with	
  Nielsen	
  
                                                                           esHmates	
  in	
  red.	
  
                                                                           Simulmedia	
  
                                                                           measurements	
  in	
  blue.	
  
                                                                           Where	
  Nielsen	
  provided	
  
                                                                           no	
  esHmate,	
  esHmates	
  
                                                                           were	
  imputed	
  using	
  
                                                                           MulHple	
  ImputaHon	
  
                                                                           (Rubin	
  (1987))	
  	
  




Sources:	
  Nielsen	
  &	
  Simulmedia’s	
  a7	
  

                                                                                                                       44	
  
Time	
  Series:	
  Broadcast:	
  Fox	
  
                                                     Hour	
  by	
  hour	
  Hme	
  series	
  
                                                     Mar	
  20	
  to	
  April	
  8,	
  2011.	
  Z	
  
                                                     score	
  plots	
  with	
  Nielsen	
  
                                                     esHmates	
  in	
  red.	
  
                                                     Simulmedia	
  
                                                     measurements	
  in	
  blue.	
  
                                                     Where	
  Nielsen	
  provided	
  
                                                     no	
  esHmate,	
  esHmates	
  
                                                     were	
  imputed	
  using	
  
                                                     MulHple	
  ImputaHon	
  
                                                     (Rubin	
  (1987))	
  	
  




Sources:	
  Nielsen	
  &	
  Simulmedia’s	
  a7	
  

                                                                                                 45	
  
Time	
  Series:	
  Broadcast:	
  ABC	
  
                                                     Hour	
  by	
  hour	
  Hme	
  series	
  
                                                     Mar	
  20	
  to	
  April	
  8,	
  2011.	
  Z	
  
                                                     score	
  plots	
  with	
  Nielsen	
  
                                                     esHmates	
  in	
  red.	
  
                                                     Simulmedia	
  
                                                     measurements	
  in	
  blue.	
  
                                                     Where	
  Nielsen	
  provided	
  
                                                     no	
  esHmate,	
  esHmates	
  
                                                     were	
  imputed	
  using	
  
                                                     MulHple	
  ImputaHon	
  
                                                     (Rubin	
  (1987))	
  	
  




Sources:	
  Nielsen	
  &	
  Simulmedia’s	
  a7	
  

                                                                                                 46	
  
Time	
  Series:	
  Cable:	
  InvesEgaEon	
  Discovery	
  
                                                            Hour	
  by	
  hour	
  Hme	
  series	
  
                                                            Mar	
  20	
  to	
  April	
  8,	
  2011.	
  Z	
  
                                                            score	
  plots	
  with	
  Nielsen	
  
                                                            esHmates	
  in	
  red.	
  
                                                            Simulmedia	
  
                                                            measurements	
  in	
  blue.	
  
                                                            Where	
  Nielsen	
  provided	
  
                                                            no	
  esHmate,	
  esHmates	
  
                                                            were	
  imputed	
  using	
  
                                                            MulHple	
  ImputaHon	
  
                                                            (Rubin	
  (1987))	
  	
  




Sources:	
  Nielsen	
  &	
  Simulmedia’s	
  a7	
  

                                                                                                        47	
  
Time	
  Series:	
  Cable:	
  Golf	
  
                                                     Hour	
  by	
  hour	
  Hme	
  series	
  
                                                     Mar	
  20	
  to	
  April	
  8,	
  2011.	
  Z	
  
                                                     score	
  plots	
  with	
  Nielsen	
  
                                                     esHmates	
  in	
  red.	
  
                                                     Simulmedia	
  
                                                     measurements	
  in	
  blue.	
  
                                                     Where	
  Nielsen	
  provided	
  
                                                     no	
  esHmate,	
  esHmates	
  
                                                     were	
  imputed	
  using	
  
                                                     MulHple	
  ImputaHon	
  
                                                     (Rubin	
  (1987))	
  	
  




Sources:	
  Nielsen	
  &	
  Simulmedia’s	
  a7	
  

                                                                                                 48	
  
Time	
  Series:	
  Cable:	
  Bravo	
  
                                                     Hour	
  by	
  hour	
  Hme	
  series	
  
                                                     Mar	
  20	
  to	
  April	
  8,	
  2011.	
  Z	
  
                                                     score	
  plots	
  with	
  Nielsen	
  
                                                     esHmates	
  in	
  red.	
  
                                                     Simulmedia	
  
                                                     measurements	
  in	
  blue.	
  
                                                     Where	
  Nielsen	
  provided	
  
                                                     no	
  esHmate,	
  esHmates	
  
                                                     were	
  imputed	
  using	
  
                                                     MulHple	
  ImputaHon	
  
                                                     (Rubin	
  (1987))	
  	
  




Sources:	
  Nielsen	
  &	
  Simulmedia’s	
  a7	
  

                                                                                                 49	
  
Time	
  Series:	
  Cable:	
  ESPN2	
  
                                                     Hour	
  by	
  hour	
  Hme	
  series	
  
                                                     Mar	
  20	
  to	
  April	
  8,	
  2011.	
  Z	
  
                                                     score	
  plots	
  with	
  Nielsen	
  
                                                     esHmates	
  in	
  red.	
  
                                                     Simulmedia	
  
                                                     measurements	
  in	
  blue.	
  
                                                     Where	
  Nielsen	
  provided	
  
                                                     no	
  esHmate,	
  esHmates	
  
                                                     were	
  imputed	
  using	
  
                                                     MulHple	
  ImputaHon	
  
                                                     (Rubin	
  (1987))	
  	
  




Sources:	
  Nielsen	
  &	
  Simulmedia’s	
  a7	
  

                                                                                                 50	
  
Time	
  Series:	
  Cable:	
  Speed	
  
                                                     Hour	
  by	
  hour	
  Hme	
  series	
  
                                                     Mar	
  20	
  to	
  April	
  8,	
  2011.	
  Z	
  
                                                     score	
  plots	
  with	
  Nielsen	
  
                                                     esHmates	
  in	
  red.	
  
                                                     Simulmedia	
  
                                                     measurements	
  in	
  blue.	
  
                                                     Where	
  Nielsen	
  provided	
  
                                                     no	
  esHmate,	
  esHmates	
  
                                                     were	
  imputed	
  using	
  
                                                     MulHple	
  ImputaHon	
  
                                                     (Rubin	
  (1987))	
  	
  




Sources:	
  Nielsen	
  &	
  Simulmedia’s	
  a7	
  

                                                                                                 51	
  
…but…	
  



            Highly	
  ConfidenHal	
  
When	
  You	
  Look	
  Closer	
  
                                                     Hour	
  by	
  hour	
  Hme	
  series	
  
                                                     Mar	
  20	
  to	
  April	
  8,	
  2011.	
  Z	
  
                                                     score	
  plots	
  with	
  Nielsen	
  
                                                     esHmates	
  in	
  red.	
  
                                                     Simulmedia	
  
                                                     measurements	
  in	
  blue.	
  
                                                     Where	
  Nielsen	
  provided	
  
                                                     no	
  esHmate,	
  esHmates	
  
                                                     were	
  imputed	
  using	
  
                                                     MulHple	
  ImputaHon	
  
                                                     (Rubin	
  (1987))	
  	
  




Sources:	
  Nielsen	
  &	
  Simulmedia’s	
  a7	
  

                                                                                                 53	
  
High	
  Frequency	
  Time	
  Series:	
  ABC	
  Family	
  
                Vola;lity	
  in	
  dayparts,	
  low	
  rated	
  networks,	
  demographics….	
  	
  	
  
                  Unrated	
  networks	
  “don’t	
  exist.”	
  Did	
  NOT	
  look	
  at	
  local.	
  




                                                                                                     a7




                                                                                                          Nielsen




                                                                         Sample	
  graph	
  from	
  High	
  Frequency	
  
                                                                         (Second	
  and	
  Minute	
  level)	
  Time	
  Series	
  
                                                                         Analysis	
  of	
  45	
  networks	
  on	
  January	
  19th	
  
                                                                         2011.	
  	
  
                                                                         Simulmedia	
  a7	
  Sample	
  (Second	
  by	
  Second	
  
                                                                         to	
  Minute)	
  	
  
                                                                         Nielsen	
  Sample	
  	
  (Minute	
  by	
  Minute)	
  	
  
                                                                         	
                                                              54	
  
Sources:	
  Nielsen	
  &	
  Simulmedia’s	
  a7	
  
Women	
  Are	
  More	
  Different	
  
         Than	
  Men	
  


                            Highly	
  ConfidenHal	
  
Gender	
  Driven	
  Geographic	
  VariaEon	
  
  Viewing	
  by	
  zip	
  code	
  among	
  women	
  across	
  markets	
  is	
  more	
  varied	
  than	
  
                                   men	
  in	
  the	
  same	
  zip	
  codes	
  
              Women	
  18-­‐54	
                                                Men	
  18-­‐54	
  




                                                        FracHon	
  of	
  view	
  Hme	
  for	
  ages	
  18-­‐54	
  as	
  fracHon	
  of	
  view	
  
                                                        Hme	
  for	
  all	
  TV	
  viewers.	
  Week	
  2	
  vs.	
  the	
  same	
  fracHon	
  for	
  
                                                        week	
  1	
  (last	
  two	
  weeks	
  in	
  January).	
  Three	
  markets:	
  
                                                        Philadelphia	
  (blue)	
  Atlanta	
  (red)	
  and	
  Chicago	
  (green)	
  Each	
  
 Source:	
  Simulmedia’s	
  a7	
                        point	
  represents	
  a	
  zip	
  code	
  in	
  one	
  of	
  these	
  markets.	
  	
  
                                                                                                                                                       56	
  
Gender	
  Driven	
  Geographic	
  VariaEon	
  

 Planning	
  tac;cs	
  for	
  female	
  targeted	
  campaigns	
  should	
  be	
  different	
  than	
  
                                  male	
  target	
  campaigns	
  




             PS…Also	
  a	
  good	
  case	
  for	
  geo	
  based	
  crea;ve	
  versioning	
  
                                                                                                        57	
  
Privacy	
  Mafers	
  



                        Highly	
  ConfidenHal	
  
Privacy	
  By	
  Design	
  

•  All	
  markeHng	
  data	
  companies	
  need	
  to	
  
     care	
  
•  Make	
  consumer	
  privacy	
  protecHon	
  
     part	
  of	
  the	
  business	
  from	
  the	
  
     beginning	
  	
  
      •  Anonymous,	
  aggregated	
  data	
  only	
  
      •  No	
  personal	
  data	
  or	
  data	
  that	
  can	
  
          be	
  related	
  to	
  parHcular	
  individuals	
  
          or	
  devices	
  
      •  Broad	
  markeHng	
  segmentaHons,	
  
          not	
  profiling	
  
      •  No	
  sensiHve	
  data	
                                  Don’t	
  be	
  creepy	
  
	
  

                                                                                           59
Mass	
  Reach	
  Is	
  
Indiscriminant	
  


                          Highly	
  ConfidenHal	
  
FragmentaEon	
  Effects	
  On	
  Frequency	
  
    Each	
  segment	
  was	
  above	
  70%	
  reach	
  but	
  the	
  frequency	
  distribu;on	
  was	
  nearly	
  
                                                  iden;cal	
  




                                                        Percent	
  of	
  audience	
  reached	
  for	
  major	
  animated	
  moHon	
  
                                                        picture	
  campaign	
  2011.	
  Two	
  weeks	
  prior	
  to	
  release.	
  	
  Each	
  
                                                        stacked	
  bar	
  is	
  a	
  different	
  audience	
  segment.	
  Each	
  color	
  
 Source:	
  Nielsen	
  &	
  Simulmedia’s	
  a7	
        with	
  the	
  stacked	
  bar	
  represents	
  the	
  frequency	
  of	
  ad	
  view	
  
                                                        for	
  each	
  segment.	
  	
                                                             61	
  
FragmentaEon	
  Effects	
  On	
  Frequency	
  
                                  Fragmenta;on	
  is	
  affec;ng	
  all	
  high	
  reach	
  campaigns.	
  




                                                                   Percent	
  of	
  audience	
  reached	
  for	
  insurance	
  adverHsers	
  
                                                                   September	
  to	
  October	
  2010.	
  Approximately	
  8000	
  ads.	
  
                                                                   Each	
  stacked	
  bar	
  is	
  a	
  different	
  audience	
  segment.	
  Each	
  
 Source:	
  Nielsen	
  &	
  Simulmedia’s	
  a7	
                   color	
  with	
  the	
  stacked	
  bar	
  represents	
  the	
  frequency	
  of	
  ad	
  
                                                                   view	
  for	
  each	
  segment.	
  	
                                                      62	
  
FragmentaEon	
  Effects	
  On	
  Frequency	
  




    The	
  TV	
  adverHsing	
  market	
  can’t	
  conHnue	
  to	
  support	
  this
                                                                                 	
  




                                                                                        63	
  
40%	
  Of	
  The	
  Audience	
  Is	
  
  Geyng	
  85%	
  Of	
  The	
  
        Impressions	
  


                                Highly	
  ConfidenHal	
  
FragmentaEon	
  Rears	
  It’s	
  Head	
  Again	
  	
  

                                                                                                                            Campaign	
  impressions	
  
                                                                                                                      increasingly	
  concentrated	
  against	
  
                                                                    0.0	
  	
                    0.0%	
  	
                    heavy	
  viewers.	
  

                                                                    1.4	
  	
                     3.6%	
  	
  

       Total	
  	
  
US	
  Television	
                                                  4.3	
  	
                     10.8%	
  	
  
 Audience	
  
                                                                                                                                      Percent	
  of	
  audience	
  
                                                                                                                                      reached	
  for	
  a	
  different	
  
                                                                    9.1	
  	
                     23.0%	
  	
  
                                                                                                                                      major	
  animated	
  moHon	
  
                                                                                                                                      picture	
  campaign	
  2011.	
  
                                                                                                                                      Two	
  weeks	
  prior	
  to	
  
                                                                                                                                      release.	
  The	
  stacked	
  bar	
  
                                                                   24.8	
  	
                     62.6%	
  	
                         represents	
  quinHles.	
  
                                                                                                                                      Blue	
  labels	
  are	
  average	
  
                                                                                                                                      frequency	
  per	
  
                                                         Average	
  Frequency	
  	
   %	
  of	
  Total	
  Impressions	
  	
  
                                                                                                                                      respecHve	
  quinHle.	
  Red	
  
                                                            Per	
  QuinEle	
                     Per	
  QuinEle	
  
                                                                                                                                      labels	
  are	
  %	
  of	
  total	
  
                                                                                                                                      campaign	
  impressions	
  
     Source:	
  Nielsen	
  &	
  Simulmedia’s	
  a7	
                                                                                  by	
  respecHve	
  quinHle.	
  
                                                                                                                                                                              65	
  
FragmentaEon	
  Effects	
  on	
  Frequency	
  




            AdverHsers	
  won’t	
  conHnue	
  to	
  support	
  this
                                                                  	
  




                                                                         66	
  
What	
  Happens	
  Next?	
  



                        Highly	
  ConfidenHal	
  
Choices	
  

•  If	
  fragmentaHon	
  is	
  causing	
  declining	
  campaign	
  reach	
  and	
  
   frequency	
  imbalances,	
  marketers	
  must	
  make	
  choices.	
  
    •  Reduce	
  reach	
  
            •  Do	
  nothing	
  
            •  Use	
  other	
  channels	
  
    •  Stabilize	
  or	
  improve	
  reach	
  
            •  Re-­‐aggregate	
  audiences	
  using	
  big	
  data	
  
         	
  
                                        	
  
                                        	
  
                          What	
  do	
  you	
  think?	
  
         	
  
                                                                                      68	
  
Jack Smith




              jack@simulmedia.com
                 @simulmedia	
  
                 @jkellonsmith	
  




                                     69	
  
About	
  Our	
  Science	
  Team	
  
•  Krishna	
  Balasubramanian,	
  Chief	
  ScienHst	
  
     •    Previously:	
  Chief	
  ScienHst,	
  Tacoda.	
  Chief	
  ScienHst,	
  Real	
  Media.	
  
     •    Doctoral	
  Candidate,	
  Physics.	
  (Condensed	
  Mafer	
  Physics)	
  The	
  Ohio	
  State	
  University	
  
     •    MS,	
  Computer	
  &	
  InformaHon	
  Systems.	
  The	
  Ohio	
  State	
  University	
  
     •    MSc,	
  Physics.	
  Indian	
  Ins;tute	
  of	
  Technology,	
  Kanpur	
  
•  Yuliya	
  Torosjan,	
  ScienHst	
  
     •    Previously:	
  Clinical	
  Research	
  (Brain	
  Imaging),	
  Mount	
  Sinai	
  College	
  of	
  Medicine	
  
     •    MA,	
  StaHsHcs.	
  Columbia	
  University	
  
     •    BSE,	
  Computer	
  Science	
  &	
  Engineering.	
  University	
  of	
  Pennsylvania	
  
     •    BA,	
  Psychology.	
  University	
  of	
  Pennsylvania	
  
•  Mario	
  Morales,	
  ScienHst	
  
     •  Previously:	
  Lecturer,	
  BioinformaHcs,	
  New	
  York	
  University.	
  Senior	
  Consultant,	
  Weiser	
  LLP.	
  
     •  MS,	
  StaHsHcs.	
  Hunter	
  College	
  
     •  MS,	
  BioinformaHcs.	
  New	
  York	
  University	
  
•  Dr.	
  Sidd	
  Mukherjee,	
  ScienHst	
  
     •  Previously,	
  VisiHng	
  Scholar	
  (Atomic	
  Scafering	
  experiments),	
  The	
  Ohio	
  State	
  University	
  
     •  Post	
  doctoral	
  research,	
  Heat	
  capacity	
  of	
  Helium-­‐4.	
  Pennsylvania	
  State	
  University	
  
     •  PhD,	
  Physics.	
  (Thesis:	
  Measurements	
  of	
  Diffuse	
  and	
  Specular	
  Scafering	
  of	
  4He	
  Atoms	
  from	
  
        4He	
  Films),	
  Ohio	
  State	
  University	
  
     •  MS,	
  Computer	
  &InformaHon	
  Systems.	
  The	
  Ohio	
  State	
  University	
  
     •  BSc,	
  Physics	
  &	
  MathemaHcs.	
  University	
  of	
  Bombay	
  
                                                                                                                                         70	
  

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Simulmedia ARF Presentation - Early Lessons Learned In Applying Big Data To Television Advertising

  • 1. Early Lessons Learned in Applying Big Data To TV Advertising ARF September 12, 2011 Jack Smith, Chief Product Officer, Simulmedia
  • 2. About  Us   Who  We  Are   We  are  a  New  York  based  start-­‐up.  We  are  venture  backed  by  Avalon   Ventures,  Union  Square  Ventures  and  Time-­‐Warner.   Where  We  Have  Been   Our  35  person  team  has  veterans  of:   What  We  Believe   Television  is  sHll  the  most  powerful  adverHsing  medium  in  the  world.   While  addressability  will  come,  we’re  not  waiHng  for  it.  We’ve  taken  a  few   strategies  we  learned  from  the  Internet  and  are  applying  it  to  linear  TV   adverHsing,  today.   How  We  Do  It   Through  partnerships  with  major  data  providers,  we  have  assembled  the   world’s  largest  set  of  acHonable  television  data.       How  We  Make  Money     sell  television  adverHsing.  With  inventory  in  over  106  million  US   We   households,  we  can  cost-­‐effecHvely  extend  reach  into  high-­‐value  target     audiences  across  virtually  any  adverHser  category.  We  use  big  data  and   science  to  do  this.   2  
  • 3. Why  Did  We  Leave  The  Web?   Television  remains  the  dominant  consumer  medium   (a)  Nielsen  US  TV  Viewing  Audicence  TradiHonal  Live-­‐Only  TV  based  on  average  monthly  viewing  during  1Q2011.    Internet  and  Online  Video  based  on  average  monthly  consumpHon  during  July  2011.     Video  on  Demand  based  on  consumpHon  during  May  2011.   3  
  • 4. TV  Spend  Is  Increasing   Source:  MAGNAGLOBAL   4  
  • 5. Audience  Is  FragmenEng   Source:  Nielsen  via  TVbythenumbers.com   5  
  • 6. Campaign  Reach  Is  Declining   Impossible  for  measurement  and  planning  tools  to  keep  pace       Source:  Simulmedia  analysis  of  data  from  SQAD,  Nielsen  and  TVB   6  
  • 7. Big  Data   Highly  ConfidenHal  
  • 8. Big  Data  Is  Driving  Growth   “We  are  on  the  cusp  of  a  tremendous  wave  of   innova;on,  produc;vity  and  growth,  as  well  as   new  modes  of  compe;;on  and  value-­‐capture  –   all  driven  by  Big  Data.”     -­‐  McKinsey  Global  InsHtute,  May  2011 “For  CMOs,  Big  Data  is  a  very  big  deal.”   -­‐  Alfredo  Gangotena,  CMO,  Mastercard,  July  2011   8  
  • 9. Size  Is  RelaEve   1  byte  x  1000  =  1  kilobyte   …x  1000  =  1  megabyte   …x  1000  =  1  gigabyte   …x  1000  =  1  terabyte   …x  1000  =  1  petabyte   …x  1000  =  1  exabyte       9  
  • 10. Size  Is  RelaEve   Telegram  =  100  bytes     Data  ©  1997-­‐2011,  James  S.  Huggins  hfp://www.jamesshuggins.com/h/tek1/how_big.htm   10  
  • 11. Size  Is  RelaEve   Page  of  an  Encyclopedia  =  100  kilobytes     Data  ©  1997-­‐2011,  James  S.  Huggins  hfp://www.jamesshuggins.com/h/tek1/how_big.htm   11  
  • 12. Size  Is  RelaEve   Pickup  truck  bed  full  of  paper  =  1  gigabyte       Data  ©  1997-­‐2011,  James  S.  Huggins  hfp://www.jamesshuggins.com/h/tek1/how_big.htm   12  
  • 13. Size  Is  RelaEve   EnHre  print  collecHon  of  the  Library  of  Congress  =  10  terabytes     Data  ©  1997-­‐2011,  James  S.  Huggins  hfp://www.jamesshuggins.com/h/tek1/how_big.htm   13  
  • 14. Size  Is  RelaEve   All  hard  drives  produced  in  1995  =  20  petabytes       Data  ©  1997-­‐2011,  James  S.  Huggins  hfp://www.jamesshuggins.com/h/tek1/how_big.htm   14  
  • 15. Size  Is  RelaEve   All  printed  material  =  200  petabytes       Data  ©  1997-­‐2011,  James  S.  Huggins  hfp://www.jamesshuggins.com/h/tek1/how_big.htm   15  
  • 16. But  Big  Data  Is  More  Than  Size       BIG  DATA         What   Why  did  it   What’s  going  to   happened?   happen?   happen  next?   Time:   Past   Future   Focus:   ReporHng   PredicHon   Supports:   Human   Machine   decisions   decisions   Data:   Structured   Unstructured   Aggregated   Unaggregated   Human   Dashboards   Discovery   Skills:   Excel   VisualizaHon     StaHsHcs  &  Physics   16  
  • 17. AcceleraEng  The  Push  To  Big  Data   Hadoop,  cloud  compuHng,  Facebook,  Yahoo,   quants,  Biforrent,  machine  learning,  Stanford,   large  hadron  collider,  Wal-­‐Mart,  text   processing,  Amazon  S3  &  EC2,  open  source   intelligence,  NoSQL,  social  media,  Google,   commodity  hardware,  Hive,  fraud  detecHon,   trading  desks,  MapReduce,  natural  language   processing     17  
  • 18. What  Can  It  Mean  For  TV  AdverEsing?   Big  data  drove  the  rise  of  web  &  search  adver;sing     •  AccumulaHon  of  high  volume  of  direct  measurement   of  media  consumpHon   •  Befer  predicHons  about  consumer  interests   •  Real  Hme  return  path   •  AutomaHon   •  Interim  step  for  addressability   •  More  diligence  around  consumer  privacy   •  Media  buyers  and  sellers  rethinking  their  approach  to   audience  packaging,  campaign  planning,  technology,   data  assembly  and  people   18  
  • 19. Post  Modern  Architecture   Have  we  reached  the  limits  of  classic  data  storage  architecture?   Data  Warehouses   Data  Lakes   •  Yahoo!:  700  tb1     •  Facebook:  30  pb3  (7x   •  Australian  Bureau  of  StaHsHcs:  250  tb1   compression)   •  AT&T:  250  tb1   •  Yahoo:  22  pb4   •  Nielsen:  45  tb1   •  Google:  ???     •  Adidas:  13  tb1   •  Wal-­‐Mart:  1  pb2     1  Oracle  F1Q10  Earnings  Call  September  16,  2009  Transcript   2  Stair,  Principles  of  Informa;on  Systems,  2009,  p  181   3  Dhruba  Borthakur,  Facebook,  December  2010,  hfp://www.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=468211193919   4  Simulmedia  esHmate   19    
  • 20. Our  Idea  of  Big  Data   Bringing  the  data  set  together  in  a  single  plaMorm   Client   Nielsen   Set  Top  Boxes   Program   Public   Ad  Occurrence   Proprietary   RaHngs   • 17+  million   • 3  different   •  US census •  What ads • Business   • All  Minute   boxes   sets  of   •  Military ran? Development   Respondent   • Completely   schedule   •  Business •  Where did Indices  (BDI)   Level  Data   anonymous   data   they run? • Commercial   (AMRLD)   viewing   • Proprietary   Development   •  Live   metadata   Indices  (CDI)   •  DVR   • Regional   •  VOD   sales  data   •  Pay  channels   Our  (comparaHvely  modest)  data  set:   •  200  tb  (approx.  7x  compression)   •  113,858,592  daily  events   •  Approximately  402,301  weekly  ads   •  Double  capacity  every  6  months   …And  we  don’t  load  every  data  point  across  all  data  sets,  yet     20  
  • 21. Rethinking  Media  Data  Architecture   Applying  big  data  to  television  required  us  to  rethink  what  our   technical  architecture  should  be   Commodity   •  No  clouds  allowed  (ISO  compliance)   Hardware   •  Expect  hardware  failure   Open  Source   •  Learn  from  those  who  have  done  it   Sosware   •  ParHcipate  in  the  Open  Source  community   •  ELT  (Extract,  Load,  Transform)   Write  Your  Own   •  Meddle   Sosware   •  Machine  learning   •  Advanced  staHsHcal  techniques   Science   •  ExperimentaHon   21  
  • 22. Some  Wrinkles  In  The  Matrix   22  
  • 23. The  People  We  Needed   A  different  approach  required  different  skill  sets   •  New  core  skills  for  everyone  in  the  company   •  Pafern  recogniHon   •  VisualizaHon   •  Technology   •  ExperimentaHon   •  Where  do  you  find  hard  to  find  tech  skills?   •  You  don’t  find  them.  You  make  them.   •  A  dedicated  Science  team   •  Non  tradiHonal  researchers  (Brain  imaging,  bioinformaHcs,   economic  modeling,  geneHcs)     •  People  who  watch  a  lot  of  television   23  
  • 24. 10  Lessons  We’ve  Learned   Highly  ConfidenHal  
  • 25. Some  Things  To  Know,  First   •  Live  viewing  unless  otherwise  noted   •  Time  shising  lessons  is  a  whole  other  presentaHon   •  Time  shising  +  live  viewing  lessons  is  a  whole  other  other  presentaHon   •  Video  on  demand  is  a  whole  other  other  other  presentaHon   •  We  name  names  and  provide  numbers  where  clients  and  data   partners  permit   •  Client  confidenHality  is  important  to  us   •  None  of  this  work  would’ve  been  possible  without  the  help  of   our  clients  and  partners   This  box  will  contain  important   Read  me…   informaHon  about  the  graphs  on   each  page.   25  
  • 26. 60%  of  TV  Viewers  Watch   90%  of  TV   Highly  ConfidenHal  
  • 27. Where  The  Other  40%  Are   TCM 13.6 HALLMARK 13.7 Networks with relatively fewer ADSWIM 14.0 lighter viewer NICKNITE 14.3 impressions CNBC 15.7 FOX NEWS 18.0 OXYGEN 7.4 Networks with relatively more WE 7.6 lighter viewer PLANET 7.7 VerEcal:  RaHo  of  Heavy   impressions GREEN Viewers  to  light  viewer   OVATION 7.8 impressions.     STYLE 7.8 Horizontal:  Low  rated  to   Highly  rated  networks   MTV2 7.8 Call  outs:  RaHo  is  the   SUNDANCE 7.9 number  of  Heavier   Viewer  impressions  you   IFC 7.9 Lower Higher rated would  deliver  to  reach  a   rated networks Lighter  Viewer  on  a  given   networks network   Sources:  Nielsen  &  Simulmedia’s  a7   27  
  • 28. Where  The  Other  40%  Are   To  capture  light  viewers,  media  planning  and  measurement   tools  must  quickly  apply  new  methods  to  emerging  data  sets   28  
  • 29. Quality  Control  Is  A  Full   Time  Job   Highly  ConfidenHal  
  • 30. When  Data  Goes  Missing   AutomaHon  of  error  checking/ quality  control  is  essenHal     Reuse  the  data  to  solve  other   problems     Occasionally  observe  missing   data     Three  choices:   •  Pick  up  the  phone   •  EsHmate  missing  fields     •  Work  around  the  missing   data     Time  series  of  SYFY   network.  10645   observaEons  from   2010.02.28  at  7:00pm   Eastern  to  2010.10.14  at   12:30pm  Eastern   30   Source:  Simulmedia’s  a7  
  • 31. More  Data  Really  Is  Befer   Highly  ConfidenHal  
  • 32. DisambiguaEon:  The  Madonna  Problem   OR   Pop  Icon?   Religious  icon?   32  
  • 33. The  RevoluEon  of  Simple  Methods   More  data  beats   beUer  algorithms.     The  best  performing   algorithm  underperforms   the  worst  algorithm  when   given  an  order  of   magnitude  more  data.       Simple  algorithms  at  very   large  scale  can  help  befer   Peter  Norvig  |  Internet  Scale  Data  Analysis  |  June  21,  2010   predict  audience   movement.   Original  graph  sourced  from:  Banko  &  Brill,  2001.  Mi;ga;ng  the  paucity-­‐of-­‐data  problem:  exploring  the  effect   of  training  corpus  size  on  classifier  performance  for  natural  language  processing     33  
  • 34. Packaging  Reach   Very  large  data  sets  beUer  predict  TV  audience  movements   Peter  Norvig  |  Internet  Scale  Data  Analysis  |  June  21,  2010   34  
  • 35. The  Cost  Of  More  Data   More  data  drives  beUer  results  but  there  are  costs       •  All  data  online.  All  the   •  All  data  online.  All  the   Hme.   Hme.   •  Less  expensive  hardware   •  More  expensive  talent   •  Extremely  flexible   •  Physicists  &  staHsHcians   ain’t  cheap   •  Hard  to  find  programmers   •  Not  everything  meets   your  needs   •  Evolving  technologies  in   mission  criHcal  funcHons   35  
  • 36. The  Data  Isn’t  Biased  Just   Because  It  Comes  From  A   Set  Top  Box   Highly  ConfidenHal  
  • 37. Applying  Simple  Methods  At  Scale   High  correlaHon  of  a7   measures  and  Nielsen   esHmates.     Either  bias  is  insignificant  or   Nielsen  data  and  our  data   share  the  same  bias.     MulHple  methods  yield   similar  results     Regression  analysis  of   Nielsen  Household  Cume   RaEng  against   Simulmedia’s  a7  cume   raEng.  20  PrimeEme   Network  shows  with   Sources:  Nielsen  &  Simulmedia’s  a7   HAWAII  FIVE-­‐0.  Fall  2010.   37  
  • 38. And  Then  We  Kept  Going   We  measured  program  Tune-­‐In,  Spot  Tune-­‐In,  Campaign  Reach,   Campaign  Ra;ng  using  mul;ple  slices  of  our  data  set  using  two   different  sample  sets  and  ;me  frames   How  we  sliced  it   Two  samples   •  EnHre  a7  data  set     1.  Sample  1:  Fall  2010:  20  PrimeHme   •  Cross  correlated  individual  data   broadcast  series  launches  +   sets  contained  in  a7  aggregate   promos   2.  Sample  2:  Jan  2011:  15  PrimeHme   data  set     cable  series  premieres  +  promos   •  Aggregate  cross  geographies   (Plus  one  mulH-­‐season/year   (DMA  to  DMA)   primeHme  broadcast  premiere  +   promos)   ObservaEons   •  Sample  1  average  r2>0.85   •  Hand  selected  programs     •  Sample  2  average  r2>0.93   •  Mix  of  genres     •  Mix  of  new  vs.  returning  shows   38  
  • 39. Addressability  Is  Here   Highly  ConfidenHal  
  • 40. Closing  The  Loop  On  Program  PromoEon   Spring  2010  broadcast   premiere  promoEon.   Horizontal:  Leb  to  right  moves   back  in  Eme.  0  is  the  premiere   Eme.  VerEcal:  Conversion  rate   is  measured  in  percent.  Size  of   Sources:    Simulmedia’s  a7   the  bubble  represents  total   conversions  for  a  given  spot.   40  
  • 41. Closing  The  Loop  On  Program  PromoEon   Spring  2010  broadcast   premiere  promoEon.   Horizontal:  Leb  to  right  moves   back  in  Eme.  0  is  the  premiere   Eme.  VerEcal:  Conversion  rate   is  measured  in  percent.  Size  of   Sources:    Simulmedia’s  a7   the  bubble  represents  total   conversions  for  a  given  spot.   41  
  • 42. Closing  The  Loop   Long  held  beliefs  and  rules  of  thumb  in  planning  may  or  may   not  be  supported  by  data     TV  marketers  now  have  more  opHons  for  show  promoHon   42  
  • 43. Nielsen’s  RaHngs  Are  Good   (Surprisingly  Good)   Highly  ConfidenHal  
  • 44. Time  Series:  Broadcast:  CBS   60  networks.  High  correla;on  between  Nielsen  large   Hour  by  hour  Hme  series   Mar  20  to  April  8,  2011.  Z   sample  measurement  and  a7  measures   score  plots  with  Nielsen   esHmates  in  red.   Simulmedia   measurements  in  blue.   Where  Nielsen  provided   no  esHmate,  esHmates   were  imputed  using   MulHple  ImputaHon   (Rubin  (1987))     Sources:  Nielsen  &  Simulmedia’s  a7   44  
  • 45. Time  Series:  Broadcast:  Fox   Hour  by  hour  Hme  series   Mar  20  to  April  8,  2011.  Z   score  plots  with  Nielsen   esHmates  in  red.   Simulmedia   measurements  in  blue.   Where  Nielsen  provided   no  esHmate,  esHmates   were  imputed  using   MulHple  ImputaHon   (Rubin  (1987))     Sources:  Nielsen  &  Simulmedia’s  a7   45  
  • 46. Time  Series:  Broadcast:  ABC   Hour  by  hour  Hme  series   Mar  20  to  April  8,  2011.  Z   score  plots  with  Nielsen   esHmates  in  red.   Simulmedia   measurements  in  blue.   Where  Nielsen  provided   no  esHmate,  esHmates   were  imputed  using   MulHple  ImputaHon   (Rubin  (1987))     Sources:  Nielsen  &  Simulmedia’s  a7   46  
  • 47. Time  Series:  Cable:  InvesEgaEon  Discovery   Hour  by  hour  Hme  series   Mar  20  to  April  8,  2011.  Z   score  plots  with  Nielsen   esHmates  in  red.   Simulmedia   measurements  in  blue.   Where  Nielsen  provided   no  esHmate,  esHmates   were  imputed  using   MulHple  ImputaHon   (Rubin  (1987))     Sources:  Nielsen  &  Simulmedia’s  a7   47  
  • 48. Time  Series:  Cable:  Golf   Hour  by  hour  Hme  series   Mar  20  to  April  8,  2011.  Z   score  plots  with  Nielsen   esHmates  in  red.   Simulmedia   measurements  in  blue.   Where  Nielsen  provided   no  esHmate,  esHmates   were  imputed  using   MulHple  ImputaHon   (Rubin  (1987))     Sources:  Nielsen  &  Simulmedia’s  a7   48  
  • 49. Time  Series:  Cable:  Bravo   Hour  by  hour  Hme  series   Mar  20  to  April  8,  2011.  Z   score  plots  with  Nielsen   esHmates  in  red.   Simulmedia   measurements  in  blue.   Where  Nielsen  provided   no  esHmate,  esHmates   were  imputed  using   MulHple  ImputaHon   (Rubin  (1987))     Sources:  Nielsen  &  Simulmedia’s  a7   49  
  • 50. Time  Series:  Cable:  ESPN2   Hour  by  hour  Hme  series   Mar  20  to  April  8,  2011.  Z   score  plots  with  Nielsen   esHmates  in  red.   Simulmedia   measurements  in  blue.   Where  Nielsen  provided   no  esHmate,  esHmates   were  imputed  using   MulHple  ImputaHon   (Rubin  (1987))     Sources:  Nielsen  &  Simulmedia’s  a7   50  
  • 51. Time  Series:  Cable:  Speed   Hour  by  hour  Hme  series   Mar  20  to  April  8,  2011.  Z   score  plots  with  Nielsen   esHmates  in  red.   Simulmedia   measurements  in  blue.   Where  Nielsen  provided   no  esHmate,  esHmates   were  imputed  using   MulHple  ImputaHon   (Rubin  (1987))     Sources:  Nielsen  &  Simulmedia’s  a7   51  
  • 52. …but…   Highly  ConfidenHal  
  • 53. When  You  Look  Closer   Hour  by  hour  Hme  series   Mar  20  to  April  8,  2011.  Z   score  plots  with  Nielsen   esHmates  in  red.   Simulmedia   measurements  in  blue.   Where  Nielsen  provided   no  esHmate,  esHmates   were  imputed  using   MulHple  ImputaHon   (Rubin  (1987))     Sources:  Nielsen  &  Simulmedia’s  a7   53  
  • 54. High  Frequency  Time  Series:  ABC  Family   Vola;lity  in  dayparts,  low  rated  networks,  demographics….       Unrated  networks  “don’t  exist.”  Did  NOT  look  at  local.   a7 Nielsen Sample  graph  from  High  Frequency   (Second  and  Minute  level)  Time  Series   Analysis  of  45  networks  on  January  19th   2011.     Simulmedia  a7  Sample  (Second  by  Second   to  Minute)     Nielsen  Sample    (Minute  by  Minute)       54   Sources:  Nielsen  &  Simulmedia’s  a7  
  • 55. Women  Are  More  Different   Than  Men   Highly  ConfidenHal  
  • 56. Gender  Driven  Geographic  VariaEon   Viewing  by  zip  code  among  women  across  markets  is  more  varied  than   men  in  the  same  zip  codes   Women  18-­‐54   Men  18-­‐54   FracHon  of  view  Hme  for  ages  18-­‐54  as  fracHon  of  view   Hme  for  all  TV  viewers.  Week  2  vs.  the  same  fracHon  for   week  1  (last  two  weeks  in  January).  Three  markets:   Philadelphia  (blue)  Atlanta  (red)  and  Chicago  (green)  Each   Source:  Simulmedia’s  a7   point  represents  a  zip  code  in  one  of  these  markets.     56  
  • 57. Gender  Driven  Geographic  VariaEon   Planning  tac;cs  for  female  targeted  campaigns  should  be  different  than   male  target  campaigns   PS…Also  a  good  case  for  geo  based  crea;ve  versioning   57  
  • 58. Privacy  Mafers   Highly  ConfidenHal  
  • 59. Privacy  By  Design   •  All  markeHng  data  companies  need  to   care   •  Make  consumer  privacy  protecHon   part  of  the  business  from  the   beginning     •  Anonymous,  aggregated  data  only   •  No  personal  data  or  data  that  can   be  related  to  parHcular  individuals   or  devices   •  Broad  markeHng  segmentaHons,   not  profiling   •  No  sensiHve  data   Don’t  be  creepy     59
  • 60. Mass  Reach  Is   Indiscriminant   Highly  ConfidenHal  
  • 61. FragmentaEon  Effects  On  Frequency   Each  segment  was  above  70%  reach  but  the  frequency  distribu;on  was  nearly   iden;cal   Percent  of  audience  reached  for  major  animated  moHon   picture  campaign  2011.  Two  weeks  prior  to  release.    Each   stacked  bar  is  a  different  audience  segment.  Each  color   Source:  Nielsen  &  Simulmedia’s  a7   with  the  stacked  bar  represents  the  frequency  of  ad  view   for  each  segment.     61  
  • 62. FragmentaEon  Effects  On  Frequency   Fragmenta;on  is  affec;ng  all  high  reach  campaigns.   Percent  of  audience  reached  for  insurance  adverHsers   September  to  October  2010.  Approximately  8000  ads.   Each  stacked  bar  is  a  different  audience  segment.  Each   Source:  Nielsen  &  Simulmedia’s  a7   color  with  the  stacked  bar  represents  the  frequency  of  ad   view  for  each  segment.     62  
  • 63. FragmentaEon  Effects  On  Frequency   The  TV  adverHsing  market  can’t  conHnue  to  support  this   63  
  • 64. 40%  Of  The  Audience  Is   Geyng  85%  Of  The   Impressions   Highly  ConfidenHal  
  • 65. FragmentaEon  Rears  It’s  Head  Again     Campaign  impressions   increasingly  concentrated  against   0.0     0.0%     heavy  viewers.   1.4     3.6%     Total     US  Television   4.3     10.8%     Audience   Percent  of  audience   reached  for  a  different   9.1     23.0%     major  animated  moHon   picture  campaign  2011.   Two  weeks  prior  to   release.  The  stacked  bar   24.8     62.6%     represents  quinHles.   Blue  labels  are  average   frequency  per   Average  Frequency     %  of  Total  Impressions     respecHve  quinHle.  Red   Per  QuinEle   Per  QuinEle   labels  are  %  of  total   campaign  impressions   Source:  Nielsen  &  Simulmedia’s  a7   by  respecHve  quinHle.   65  
  • 66. FragmentaEon  Effects  on  Frequency   AdverHsers  won’t  conHnue  to  support  this   66  
  • 67. What  Happens  Next?   Highly  ConfidenHal  
  • 68. Choices   •  If  fragmentaHon  is  causing  declining  campaign  reach  and   frequency  imbalances,  marketers  must  make  choices.   •  Reduce  reach   •  Do  nothing   •  Use  other  channels   •  Stabilize  or  improve  reach   •  Re-­‐aggregate  audiences  using  big  data         What  do  you  think?     68  
  • 69. Jack Smith jack@simulmedia.com @simulmedia   @jkellonsmith   69  
  • 70. About  Our  Science  Team   •  Krishna  Balasubramanian,  Chief  ScienHst   •  Previously:  Chief  ScienHst,  Tacoda.  Chief  ScienHst,  Real  Media.   •  Doctoral  Candidate,  Physics.  (Condensed  Mafer  Physics)  The  Ohio  State  University   •  MS,  Computer  &  InformaHon  Systems.  The  Ohio  State  University   •  MSc,  Physics.  Indian  Ins;tute  of  Technology,  Kanpur   •  Yuliya  Torosjan,  ScienHst   •  Previously:  Clinical  Research  (Brain  Imaging),  Mount  Sinai  College  of  Medicine   •  MA,  StaHsHcs.  Columbia  University   •  BSE,  Computer  Science  &  Engineering.  University  of  Pennsylvania   •  BA,  Psychology.  University  of  Pennsylvania   •  Mario  Morales,  ScienHst   •  Previously:  Lecturer,  BioinformaHcs,  New  York  University.  Senior  Consultant,  Weiser  LLP.   •  MS,  StaHsHcs.  Hunter  College   •  MS,  BioinformaHcs.  New  York  University   •  Dr.  Sidd  Mukherjee,  ScienHst   •  Previously,  VisiHng  Scholar  (Atomic  Scafering  experiments),  The  Ohio  State  University   •  Post  doctoral  research,  Heat  capacity  of  Helium-­‐4.  Pennsylvania  State  University   •  PhD,  Physics.  (Thesis:  Measurements  of  Diffuse  and  Specular  Scafering  of  4He  Atoms  from   4He  Films),  Ohio  State  University   •  MS,  Computer  &InformaHon  Systems.  The  Ohio  State  University   •  BSc,  Physics  &  MathemaHcs.  University  of  Bombay   70