Drupal Estimation Techniques by Project Managers

ience of Gu essing
The Sc
ru pal E stim ation
D
Te chni ques
P ro ject
from
M an agers

http://www.sxc.hu/photo/814294
AS PRESENTED AT DRUPALCAMP STOCKHOLM ON MARCH 8 2013

Introductions

Seriously, who are these people?
Shannon Vettes Jakob Persson
Partner Manager at Doing Drupal since 2005, co-
Commerce Guys, Project founded NodeOne in 2007,
Managing since 2005, currently freelance Drupal
Drupal since 2010, consultant
Working in IT since 2000

S J

WE ENCOURAGE BIRDSONG

Tweet , Tweet , Tweedly-deet...
Questions & comments?

#drestimate

S J

WHY YOU ARE HERE

When a client or
colleague asks you
for an estimate,
what’s your initial
reaction?

S

WHY YOU ARE HERE

When a client or
colleague asks you
for an estimate,
reaction?
Is it THIS?

S

WHY YOU ARE HERE

When a client or
colleague asks you
for an estimate,
reaction?
Or... Maybe This?

S

WHY YOU ARE HERE

When a client or
colleague asks you
for an estimate,
reaction?
I hope it’s not this....

S

WHY YOU ARE HERE

If it’s anything like that,
You’ve come to the
right place!

WHY YOU ARE HERE
At the end of this presentation,
we want you to feel like this
when asked for an estimate.

We’ll cover:
 What an estimate is
 Why estimates are needed
 How risks affect estimates
 How an estimate is made
 Answers to your questions

S

WHAT AN ESTIMATE IS

“Estimation is the calculated
approximation of a result which is
usable even if input data may be
incomplete or uncertain.”

– Wikipedia

J

WHAT AN ESTIMATE IS
“How to bake a pie”
✔ Requirements clarification
✔ Use cases
✔ Theming
✔ UI refinement
✔ Development/config

✔ Training/doc
✔ Automated testmaking
✔ Testing
✔ Bugfixing
✔ Deployment

✔ Project management time
J

✔ Use cases
✔ UI reﬁnement

Story Case
Focuses on needs Focus on behavior
and describe and interaction,
functionality in a eliminates
way the shows its ambiguity and
application and provides the
business value. developer with the
information he/she
needs.

•Role •Summary
•Need •Rationale
•Sequence of •Users
events •Preconditions
•How to demo •Default events
•Alternative
sequence
http://www.stellman-greene.com/2009/05/03/requirements-101-user-stories-vs-use-cases/

J

✔ Use cases
✔ UI reﬁnement

Requirements evolve and are clariﬁed over the course of a
project, and they’re often provided as UI designs.

Click me Click me Click me

April May

5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

J

✔ Theming
✔ Development/conﬁg

<html> The “real” work?
< ?p hp
m_al ter() .tpl.php
hook_for
Views Panel <as ide>
CCK s

R ules $(function() {
...})
J

✔ Automated testmaking
✔ Testing
✔ Bugﬁxing

• Test more, build more
• Automated testing
saves time over the
course of a project
• Tests helps identify
and manage
ambiguous
requirements

http://www.sxc.hu/photo/684719 J

✔ Training/doc ✔ Deployment

HOMEWORK (DON’T FORGET!):
- Creating content
- Ed iting menus

les, ok?
Dr upal ru

http://www.sxc.hu/photo/987819 J

PROJECT MANAGEMENT DOES TAKE TIME

What about the dreaded....

J

PROJECT MANAGEMENT DOES TAKE TIME

What about the dreaded....
“We don’t need another
PM from your team
adding overhead to this
project.”

- Poor Soul

J

WHY WE NEED ESTIMATES
05

Estimates help to:
Plan

$
€ Budget

Communicate

J

Plan
05

What do we mean by planning?

http://bit.ly/WsdfLj S

Plan
05

What do we mean by planning?
When will it
be done?!?
(Yes, we mean schedules!)

http://bit.ly/WsdfLj S

Plan

S

Plan

Choose a team

then
April Block their time
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1

based on estimates

S

Plan

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
April
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1
Get a deadline...

then
Choose a team

S

Plan
05

Project estimated to 115 hours. I got 3 guys working
full time for a week gives...

40 hrs × 3 = 120 hrs

April May
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

S

Plan
05

t ’s
Project estimated to 115 hours. I got 3 guys working
full time for a week gives...
t ha
ps...
IT Y
Woo IL= 120 hrs
B× 3
Ahrs
VAIL 40

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
A April
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
May
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

S

Plan

6.4 × 3 = 19.2 hrs per day

April May
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

115/19.2 = 6 days

S

Plan

http://www.sxc.hu/photo/1397088 http://www.sxc.hu/photo/1344947 http://www.sxc.hu/photo/348661 J

Plan

Even the best laid plans...
Project A Project B Project C

April May

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

“We’re going to have
“We need a few
“BUG! Fix ASAP!” to work the weekend to
extra adjustments” ﬁx this!” :(

J

WHY DO WE NEED THEM
$
€ Budget

$ €
€€ $
$
$ $€ $ €
€
?
“stuff customer wants” “customer’s budget”
J

WHY DO WE NEED THEM
$
€ Budget

April May

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

? 500

J

WHY DO WE NEED THEM
$
€ Budget

April May

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

€????
€????

? 500

J

WHY DO WE NEED THEM
$
€ Budget

€60
€30
€100

€120

€50

J

WHY DO WE NEED THEM
$
€ Budget

€60
€30
€100

€120

$ €
€€ $
€50 $
$ $€ $ €
€

J

WHY DO WE NEED THEM
$
€ Budget

€60
€30
€100
10-20

30 -40

€120

$ €
€€ $
$
80 -120

10 -20
€50
$ $€ $ €
€

J

WHY DO WE NEED THEM
$
€ Budget

We think this is
I’m sure!
accurate...

€120

80 -120

J

WHY DO WE NEED THEM
$
€ Budget

We think this is
I’m sure!
accurate...

€120

80 -120

April May

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

J

WHY DO WE NEED THEM
$
€ Budget

We know this is
I’m sure!
accurate...

€120

80 -120

April May

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

J

WHY DO WE NEED THEM
$
€ Budget

Complexity
€100
Familiarity
80 -120

Dependency

80-120

J

WHY DO WE NEED THEM
$
€ Budget

The sweet spot, Brings a lot of
low hanging fruit value but also risk
Value

Postpone, change
Not a lot of gain
or discard

Effort / Risk
J

WHY DO WE NEED THEM
$
€ Budget

€50 €120
10 -20
C €100

A
40 -60 80 -120

€60
B
Value

€50
10 -20
D 30 -40
E €40

€30
80 -120
G
10-20

F

Effort / Risk
J

WHY DO WE NEED THEM
Communicate

Communication as in ...

http://bit.ly/1008C8p S

WHY DO WE NEED THEM
Communicate

Communication as in ...
Are we on the
same page?

http://bit.ly/1008C8p S

WHY DO WE NEED THEM
Communicate

Do they Do they
understand how understand what
complex this we’re trying to
design is? achieve?

S

WHY DO WE NEED THEM
Communicate

4,500 - 5,500 2,500??? Do they
2,500 - 3,500 really understand
the risks and
complexities?

RFP

6,500 - 7,000

S

WHY DO WE NEED THEM
Communicate

€40,000

€40,000

S

WHY DO WE NEED THEM
Communicate

S

MANAGING THE UNFORESEEN

S

MANAGING THE UNFORESEEN

RISK
S

MANAGING RISK Risk

“Risk comes from not knowing
what you’re doing.”
- Warren Buffett

S

MANAGING RISK Risk

What’s the point
of Risk
Management?
To help you assess risks to
your estimation, and align the
numbers to manage that risk. Avoid car wrecks

S

MANAGING RISK Risk

05

? Identiﬁcation
?
Assessment

Mitigation

S

MANAGING RISK Risk

? Identiﬁcation
? 05

S

MANAGING RISK Risk

? Identiﬁcation
? 05

The usual suspects…
HEY, NOT MY PROBLEM!
THE API IS STABLE! THERE´S A MODULE FOR THAT!

ISN’T IT OOTB?

UI IS EASY
TO CHANGE!

S J

MANAGING RISK Risk

Assessment 05

Composite risk rating
Impact Probability

× =8
It’s an opportunity to evaluate risk
in order to decide how to treat it.

http://www.sxc.hu/photo/1196348 http://www.sxc.hu/photo/1120986 S

MANAGING RISK Risk

Assessment 05

RISK IMPACT PROBABILITY RATING

Shared sign on 5 5 25

Integration online booking 4 4 16

Migration legacy system 2 4 8

Asteroid hitting the Earth 1E+21 0.000000001

Hey! Don’t forget about us!

S J

MANAGING RISK Risk

Assessment 05

Overall risk assessment: Low 1-8, Medium 9-16 or High 17-25

LOW MEDIUM HIGH

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

IGNORE QUARTERLY MONTHLY WEEKLY DAILY

Overall risk monitoring, a continual process.

S

MANAGING RISK Risk

Assessment 05

DUDE, WTF?
Meh Meh seriously Dude, seriously
SERIOUSLY SERIOUSLY?

the api is stable
5 ASTEROID VIDEO COMPONENT

4 INTEGRATION
Impact

3

2 MIGRATION

1

1 2 3 4 5

Probability
S

MANAGING RISK Risk

Mitigation 05

Accept risk - no action

Eliminate risk

Limit risk

Share risk

S J

MANAGING RISK Risk

05

THE F RONT
FROM
L INES

‘Just trust us’
A TRUE RISK MITIGATIO
N STORY

http://bit.ly/100ffI1 S

ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES
05

Ball Park Top-Down

Weighted Estimate

Delphi Methods

J

Ball Park Top-Down
05

s
Requ irement
o
r I want t
• As a use create
to
be able
s
b log post
to
r I want
• As a use edit blog
to
be able
posts to
r I want sh
• As a use un/publi
to
be able

?
sts
blog po

J

Weighted Estimate
05

Task Est Conf Low - Hi

Blog listing view 1 4 0.7 - 1.5
Blog

Blog post 1 4 0.7 - 1.5

Comments 1 4 0.7 - 1.5
Create views Create rules Theming Test

Redirect user 2 3 1-4
Redirect user
Blog listing after making Blog front page
post
Show message 2 3 1-4
Showing
Blog post
message
Post pages
...

Comments
Comment listing 300 - 450

Create a post
form

J

Delphi Methods
05

J

05

When should I use what?
Ball Park Top-Down Weighted Estimation Delphi

General Strategy Speciﬁc Features
When Estimate Ranges
Decisions > Accuracy Several Experts

Pros: Easy/Fast Pros: Variance Range Pros: Smarter/Accurate
Why Cons: Short-term Cons: Takes time Cons: Feature Speciﬁc
Helps for decision making Helps level-set expectations Helps validate theories

J

05

100%

Actual accuracy of the
estimate

vs

Estimator’s conﬁdence
in the accuracy of the
estimate

Time and effort spent

J


The dont’s
• Don’t play the blame game
• Don’t estimate what you
cannot know – requirements
are like icebergs

• Don’t estimate in a vacuum


TAKE AWAYS

• Management by estimate == bad idea
• Estimates should include much more
than just development

• Estimates are more than just numbers
• Use risk management to avoid
problems you can identify

http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/jakeliefer/290510226/

TACK! GRACIAS! DANKE!

Thanks everyone!

ASK AWAY

Who’s got funny
graphic
goes

questions? here

http://interspeciesfriends.blogspot.de/2008/08/curious-kitten-and-ducklings.html

TALK TO US

Shannon Vettes
Twitter: @svettes
shannonvettes@gmail.com

Jakob Persson
Twitter: @realsolipsist
jakob.persson@gmail.com

Drupal Estimation Techniques by Project Managers

Recommandé

Recommandé

Contenu connexe

Tendances

Tendances (20)

Similaire à Drupal Estimation Techniques by Project Managers

Similaire à Drupal Estimation Techniques by Project Managers (20)

Dernier

Dernier (20)

Drupal Estimation Techniques by Project Managers