The Science of Guessing - Drupal estimation techniques from project managers

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The Science of Guessing - Drupal Estimation
Techniques from Project Managers

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Introductions
jec l Es
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2

Who are these people?
Shannon Vettes Mattias Axelsson
D8 Project Liason, Project Managing CEO and co-founder, Happiness
since 2005, Drupal since 2010, Drupal agency
Working in IT since 2000

Jakob Persson
Co-founder at Wunderkraut, being
doing Drupal since 2005

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Introductions
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3

Tweet, Tweet, Tweedly-deet...

Questions & comments?

#drestimate

Why You Are Here
5

When a client or
colleague asks you
for an estimate,
what’s your initial
reaction?

Why You Are Here
5

When a client or
colleague asks you
for an estimate,
reaction?
Is it THIS?

Why You Are Here
5

When a client or
colleague asks you
for an estimate,
reaction?
Or... Maybe This?

Why You Are Here
5

When a client or
colleague asks you
for an estimate,
reaction?
I hope it’s not this....

Why You Are Here

If it’s anything like that, 6

You’ve come to the right place!

Why You Are Here
7
At the end of this
presentation, we want
you to feel like this when
asked for an estimate

We’ll cover:
 What an estimate is
 What (not) to use them for
 What they are aﬀected by
 How an estimate is done
 Answers to your questions

What’s an
estimate?

8

What’s an estimate?
9

“Estimation is the calculated approximation
of a result which is usable even if input data
may be incomplete or uncertain.”
– Wikipedia

10
Burning questions

What’s in an What advice can
estimate? you give me?


“How to bake a pie” 11

✔ Requirements
clarification
✔ Use cases ✔ Theming
✔ UI refinement ✔ Development/config

✔ Automated ✔ Training/doc
testmaking
✔ Testing
✔ Bugfixing
✔ Deployment

✔ Project management time

✔ Requirements
clariﬁcation
✔ Use cases
✔ UI reﬁnement

12
Story Case
Focuses on needs Focus on behavior
and describe and interaction,
functionality in a eliminates
way the shows its ambiguity and
application and provides the
business value. developer with the
information he/
she needs.

•Role •Summary
•Need •Rationale
•Sequence of •Users
events •Preconditions
•How to demo •Default events
•Alternative
sequence
http://www.stellman-greene.com/2009/05/03/requirements-101-user-stories-vs-use-cases/

✔ Requirements
clarification
✔ Use cases
✔ UI refinement

13

Requirements evolve and are clarified over the course of a
project, and they’re often provided as UI designs.

Click me Click me Click me

April May

5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

✔ Theming
✔ Development/conﬁg

14

<html> The “real” work?
< ?p hp
m_al ter() .tpl.php
hook_for
Views Panel <as ide>
CCK s

R ules $(function() {
...})

✔ Automated
testmaking
✔ Testing
✔ Bugﬁxing

15

• Test more, build more
• Automated testing
saves time over the
course of a project
• Tests helps identify
and manage
ambiguous
requirements

http://www.sxc.hu/photo/684719

✔ Training/doc ✔ Deployment

16

HOMEWORK (DON’T FORGET!):
- Creating content
- Ed iting menus

les, ok?
Dr upal ru


17

What’s this?
PM? Project baloney!
We don’t need a PM.
We got our own PM
team.
Yes but
who’s gonna tell
the nodes where
to go?

✔ Project management time


Why do we need them?
05
19
Burning questions
How does an
estimate help me plan What does an
the project? estimate
communicate?

How does an estimate
help me budget?

05
20

stimates help us
E
Plan

$ Budget
€
Communicate

Plan
05
21
Practical
Example!

Plan
05
21
Practical
Example!
120 hrs

32 hrs × 3 = 96 hrs

96 hrs × 0.25 = 24 hrs

Plan
22

When will it be done?
April May
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

6.4 × 3 = 19.2 hrs per day

April May
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

96/19.2 = 5 days

Plan
23

http://www.sxc.hu/photo/1397088 http://www.sxc.hu/photo/1344947 http://www.sxc.hu/photo/348661

Plan
24

Prj A Project B Project C

April May

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

“We’re going to have
“We need a few
“BUG! Fix ASAP!” to work the weekend to
extra adjustments” ﬁx this!” :(

Plan
25


26

$
Practical
Budget
€
Example!

$ Budget
€ 27

What can I
What gets me
get for my money?
the most bang for
the buck?

And why is
that?
...

$ Budget
€ Is this slide about COST vs
VALUE?
28

Maybe we should have those
2 words appear on here?

$ €
€€ $
$
$ $€ $ €
€
?
“stuff customer wants” “customer’s budget”

$ Budget
€ 29

April May

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

? 500

$ Budget
€ 29

April May

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

€????
€????

? 500

$ Budget
€ 30

€60
€30
€100

€120

€50

$ Budget
€ 31

€60
€30
€100

€120

$ €
€€ $
€50 $
$ $€ $ €
€

$ Budget
€ 32

Complexity
€100
Familiarity
80 -120

Dependency

80-120

$ Budget
€ 33

€60
€30
€100
10-20

30 -40

€120

$ €
€€ $
$
80 -120

10 -20
€50
$ $€ $ €
€

$ Budget
€ 34

The sweet spot, Brings a lot of
low hanging fruit value but also risk
Value

Postpone, change
Not a lot of gain
or discard

Effort / Risk

$ Budget
€ 35

€50 €120
10 -20 €100
40 -60 80 -120

€60
Value

€50
€40
10 -20 30 -40

80 -120
€30
10-20

Effort / Risk

$ Budget
€ 36

We think this is
I’m sure!
accurate...

€120

80 -120

$ Budget
€ 36

We think this is
I’m sure!
accurate...

€120

80 -120

April May

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

$ Budget
€ 37

We know this is
I’m sure!
accurate...

€120

80 -120

April May

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Communicate
38
Practical
Example!

Communicate
39

Do they Do they
understand how understand what
complex this we’re trying to
design is? achieve?

Communicate
40

4,500 - 5,500 2,500??? Do they
2,500 - 3,500 really understand
the risks and
complexities?

RFP

6,500 - 7,000

Communicate
41

€40,000

€40,000

Communicate
42

What affects
estimations?

43

What affects
estimations?

RISK
43

What affects Risk
estimation?
44

“When the map and the territory don’t
agree, always believe the territory.”
– Saying from the Swedish Army

What affects Risk
estimation?
45
Burning questions
Why should I Are there
care about risk so common risks
early on? with Drupal?

How do I manage &
communicate risk?

What affects Risk
estimation?
46

What’s the point
of all these
questions?
To help you assess risks to
your estimation, and align the
numbers to manage that risk. Avoid car wrecks

What affects Risk
estimation?
05
47

Risk analysis
? Identiﬁcation
?
Assessment

Mitigation

What affects Risk
estimation?
? Identiﬁcation
? 05
48

What affects Risk
estimation?
Assessment 05
49

Composite Risk Rating
Impact Probability

× =8
It’s an opportunity to
evaluate risk in order to
decide how to treat it.

http://www.sxc.hu/photo/1196348 http://www.sxc.hu/photo/1120986

What affects Risk
estimation?
Assessment 05
50

RISK IMPACT PROBABILITY RATING

Video component 5 5 25

Integration online booking 4 4 16

Migration legacy system 2 4 8

Asteroid hitting the Earth 1×10^+21 0.000000001

Hey! Don’t forget
about us!

What affects Risk
estimation?
Assessment 05
51

Overall risk assessment: Low 1-8, Medium 9-16 or High 17-25

LOW MEDIUM HIGH

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

IGNORE QUARTERLY MONTHLY WEEKLY DAILY

Overall risk monitoring, a continual process.

Assessment
05
52
DUDE, WTF?
Meh Meh seriously Dude, seriously
SERIOUSLY SERIOUSLY?

the api is stable
5 ASTEROID VIDEO COMPONENT

4 INTEGRATION
Impact

3

2 MIGRATION

1

1 2 3 4 5

Probability

What affects Risk
estimation?
Mitigation 05
53

Accept risk - no action

Eliminate risk

Limit risk

Share risk

What affects Risk
estimation?
Mitigation 05
54

F RO N T LINES
F RO M THE

A TRUE RISK MI
TIGATION STORY

What affects Risk
estimation?

THE USUAL SUSPECTS
05
55

HEY, NOT MY PROBLEM!
THE API IS STABLE! THERE´S A MODULE FOR THAT!

ISN’T IT OOTB?

UI IS EASY
TO CHANGE!

Drupal Estimation
Techniques

56

Drupal Estimation
Techniques
57
Burning questions

What techniques When should I
should I use? use what?

How do they work?

Drupal Estimation
Techniques
58

“Estimation is like a walking stick for a blind
man. It won’t miraculously give you sight, but it
might help you avoid walking into a wall.”
- Old Chinese proverb says

Drupal Estimation
Techniques
niques
05
59

3 Example Tech

Ball Park Top-Down

Weighted Estimate

Delphi Methods

Drupal Estimation
Techniques
Ball Park Top-Down 05
60
Poll: how many use this?
How many new it was called
this?

s
Requ irement
o
r I want t
• As a use create
to
be able
s
b log post
to
r I want
• As a use edit blog
to
be able
posts to
r I want sh
• As a use un/publi
to
be able

?
sts
blog po

Drupal Estimation
Techniques
Poll: how many use this?
How many knew it was called
this?

Weighted Estimate 05
61

Task Est Conf Low - Hi

Blog listing view 1 4 0.7 - 1.5
Blog

Blog post 1 4 0.7 - 1.5

Comments 1 4 0.7 - 1.5
Create views Create rules Theming Test

Redirect user 2 3 1-4
Redirect user
Blog listing after making Blog front page
post
Show message 2 3 1-4
Showing
Blog post
message
Post pages
...

Comments
Comment listing 300 - 450

Create a post
form

Drupal Estimation Poll: how many use this?

Techniques
How many knew it was called
this?

Delphi Methods 05
62

Hmm... Hmm... Hmm...
Hmm...

Drupal Estimation
Techniques
05
63

When should I use what?
Weighted
Ball Park Top-Down Delphi
Estimation

General Strategy Speciﬁc Features
When Estimate Ranges
Decisions > Accuracy Several Experts

Pros: Easy/Fast Pros: Smarter/Accurate Pros: Variance Range
Why Cons: Short-term Cons: Feature Speciﬁc Cons: Takes time
Helps for decision making Helps validate theories Helps level-set expectations

Drupal Estimation
Techniques
05
64

100%
Accuracy / Conﬁdence

Effort

Beware
65

The don’ts

• Don’t the blame game
• Don’t estimate what you
cannot know – requirements
are like icebergs

• Don’t in a vacuum


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Take Aways
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We want you to remember:
• Management by estimate == bad idea
• Estimates should include much more
than just development

• Estimates are more than just numbers
• Use risk management to avoid
problems you can identify

http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/jakeliefer/290510226/

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Opinions welcome
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67
Thanks everyone!

Please review:
http://bit.ly/IYEGEB
Note: You need to be logged in to the
DrupalCon website to rate and review sessions.

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Ask away
jec l Es
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68

Who’s got funny
graphic
goes

Questions?! here

http://interspeciesfriends.blogspot.de/2008/08/curious-kitten-and-ducklings.html

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Talk to us
jec l Es
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69
Shannon Vettes
Twitter: @svettes Wait, there’s
more!
shannonvettes@gmail.com

Jakob Persson
Twitter: @realsolipsist Meet us tomorrow at the
jakob.persson@gmail.com “Drupal PM lunch date” BoF
at 11.45 to 13.00 in Athen.
/
Mattias Axelsson You’re w elcome to bring food
Twitter: @mattiasaxelsson
lunch.
mattias.axelsson@happiness.se

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