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Deloitte
                                       Middle East
                                       CFO Survey
                                       A front row view
                                       of performance
                                       expectations




Eighty five years in the Middle East                      June 2010
This quarter’s special
questions look at the
role of the CFO in the
Middle East: how CFOs
divide their time among
the four dimensions of
Strategist, Catalyst,
Steward and Operator
Contents




Key points                                     4

The second Middle East CFO Survey              7

Government: a catalyst for sustained growth    8

Financing the corporate sector                 9

The need for stronger balance sheets          14

Financial prospects and plans                 16

The market view                               18

The role of the CFO                           23

A comparison of Deloitte CFO surveys          27
in the Middle East and abroad

Here to meet your needs                       28
Key points




* The region’s resilience               With the price of oil hovering in the mid $80 range             Key points from the survey
“The Middle East, particularly the
energy-rich Gulf, has been the region
                                        (well above most governmental budget forecasts),                • The majority of CFOs do not see the need for further
least hit by the economic downturn,     and GDP growth in many Middle Eastern countries                   government intervention or stimulus measures at this
the Paris-based credit insurance
group Coface said at a conference
                                        being revised upward relative to six months ago, the              time, however they believe that governments in the
on Tuesday.                             region is emerging into economic recovery albeit with             region have the capacity to do more in the future
"Middle East countries have shown
                                        caution and continuing uncertainty.                               should the need persist.
resilience being able to maintain                                                                       • CFOs see the markets for external finance as having
positive growth of 1.4 percent in       The current economic climate matches the sentiments               improved over the past six months particularly for
2009," Coface said at a one-day
country risk conference organised       expressed by Chief Financial Officers (CFOs) in the 1st            bank borrowings and equity raising. However, most
with Kuwait-based Arab Investment       Deloitte Middle East Survey–Leading the Way in October            believe it is still not a good time to be accessing the
and Export Credit Guarantee Corp.
                                        2009. Indeed, the overall sentiment of CFOs in the                markets for external finance.
The group has calculated what it        region looking into 2010 proved to be consistent with           • An increasing number of CFOs expect their
calls the "growth shock" of the
global financial crisis by taking the   views recently expressed in international news, that have         company’s operating cash flows to increase over
percentage point difference in GDP      highlighted the region’s resilience to the crisis*.               the coming 12 months.
growth between 2007 and 2009.
                                                                                                        • CFOs continue to view company balance sheets
For the whole world, GDP growth         In this second survey, conducted in March 2010,
declined 5.8 percentage points while
                                                                                                          as being overleveraged though with little change
                                        results indicate that CFOs have favorable views toward
it fell 3.6 percentage points for the                                                                     for planned levels expected in their own company
Middle East, just ahead of emerging     government actions in supporting the economy, the
Asia which fell 3.9 percentage
                                                                                                          balance sheets over the coming 12 months.
                                        banking environment beginning to stabilize, and the
points, Coface said.                                                                                    • There is an increase in optimism reported by CFOs
                                        outlook for general business activity improving. When
"Everyone thinks that the best
                                                                                                          relating to the financial prospects for their company
                                        looking at their own balance sheets, however, CFOs do
region in the crisis was emerging                                                                         over the coming 12 months with a consistent view
Asia, but in fact it was the Middle     not seem to have achieved any significant deleveraging
East," Coface CEO Jerome Cazes told
                                                                                                          from the last survey that growth in demand for the
                                        over the past six months so financial risks remain which
AFP in a telephone interview as he                                                                        company’s products and services will accelerate in
could not attend because of travel      should be monitored and tracked closely.
disruption in Europe resulting from
                                                                                                          the second half of 2010.
the volcanic ash cloud from Iceland.
                                        This quarter’s special questions look at the role of            • Commercial real estate continues to be viewed as
Mideast least hit by global             the CFO in the Middle East: how CFOs divide their time            overvalued compared to equities while government
downturn, forum April 23, 2010
                                        among the four dimensions of Strategist, Catalyst,                bonds are perceived as increasingly over valued over
Agence France Press
                                        Steward and Operator. The results indicate that they              the past six months.
                                        spent considerable time on activities within their              • There is continued optimism around an increase in
                                        Stewardship and Operator spaces during the downturn               expected M&A activity over the coming 12 months.
                                        tackling issues such as risk management, cost reduction,        • A significant number of CFOs are reporting that
                                        cash flow management and accounting but are looking                they direct a number of corporate functions which
                                        forward to spending more time as Strategists and                  are outside of the core finance area. This could lead
                                        Catalysts to position their organizations for the upturn          to a lack of focus and underperformance of their
                                        and drive enterprise value. CFOs also reported an almost          primary mandate.
                                        equal distribution of responsibilities in a number of areas     • CFOs view the responsibility for performance in a
                                        between their organization’s management and the                   number of corporate areas as being evenly shared
                                        board of directors to an extent that calls into question          between the Board of Directors and the Management.
                                        the clarity of the roles and responsibilities between these       This insight may raise the following question: Does
                                        two groups. Further, CFOs believe they are sufficiently            sufficient clarity exist in these organizations over
                                        authorized and empowered to execute their                         who is responsible for what and to what extent?
                                        responsibilities as CFOs, which is potentially good news        • CFOs expect to invest more time executing as
                                        if their roles and responsibilities reflect a balance of the       Strategists and Catalysts and less as Operators and
                                        four dimensions mentioned above.                                  Stewards over the coming year.




                                                                                             A front row view of performance expectations • Deloitte Middle East CFO Survey • 5
The Deloitte CFO
Survey is the only
survey in the Middle
East for major
corporate users of
capital that gauges
attitudes toward the
general economic
outlook, financing
valuations, and risk




6 • Deloitte Middle East CFO Survey • A front row view of performance expectations
The second Middle East CFO Survey




A special note                            This is the second survey for CFOs and Finance Leaders           Going Forward
on “Black Swans”
The ‘Black Swan Theory’ is defined
                                          of Middle East companies and it was conducted in                 The value of the survey data increases with the ability
as an event or occurrence that            March 2010. The Deloitte CFO Survey is the only survey           to identify trends and possible turning points. In this
deviates beyond what is normally
expected of a situation and that is
                                          for major corporate users of capital that gauges                 regard we are looking forward to the next edition
extremely difficult to predict. This      attitudes toward the general economic outlook,                   of the Deloitte Middle East CFO Survey and value
term was popularized by Nassim
Nicholas Taleb, a finance professor
                                          financing valuations, and risk.                                   your ongoing participation.
and former Wall Street trader, in his
2007 book The Black Swan. Since           There were 134 respondents overall representing both             Participate in Future Surveys
the first CFO survey was released
last October we have witnessed
                                          listed and non listed companies reflecting the following          If you would like to participate in an upcoming CFO
a number of such unexpected               industry and annual turnover distribution:                       Survey we kindly invite you to contact us and inquire
events which have had a significant
economic impact on a local as                                                                              regarding participation.
well as regional and global level.
                                             Less than $100m                              35%              James Babb
From earthquakes and volcanic
eruptions to increased geopolitical                                                                        CFO Program Leader
tensions, CFOs now more than ever
need to look ahead and think
                                                                                                           Deloitte Middle East
“outside the box” in terms of the              $100m-$499m                            31%                  Tel + 971 (0) 4 331 3211
unexpected and how it might impact
their organizations. Organizations
                                                                                                           jbabb@deloitte.com
need to appraise their ability to
absorb such unpredictable Black
                                               $500m-$999m                    16%                          Survey respondents – Country-wise
Swan events in a robust way and
even, in a best case scenario, to
exploit them as positive opportunities.                                                                      Country                                   N0 of respondents

For example, how would the                                                                                   UAE                                                33
                                                 $1bn-$4.9bn                 14%
following impact your organization
as a result of a periodic or                                                                                 Kuwait                                              5
sustained disruption?
                                                                                                             Qatar                                               4
• No telecommunications?
• No air travel?                                        >$5bn     5%                                         Jordan                                             24
• No distribution of resources or
  products to/from geographies                                                                               Egypt                                               3
  outside the home country
  or the region?                                                                                             Saudi Arabia                                       14
• The collapse of a major                    Financial Services
  market competitor?                                   Industry                     36%                      Syria                                               6

                                                                                                             Sudan                                               2
                                              Telecom, Media                                                 Bahrain                                             5
                                                                  6%
                                                & Technology
                                                                                                             Lebanon                                             2

                                                    Real Estate                                              Oman                                                5
                                                                             20%
                                          Hospitality & Leisure
                                                                                                             Anonymous*                                         31

                                                                                                             Total                                             134
                                               Energy/Utilities        12%
                                                                                                           *Survey invitees were given the option to provide demographic data,
                                                                                                            some chose not to disclose this information.

                                               Manufacturing       10%



                                           Consumer Business
                                                                         17%
                                             & Transportation




                                                                                                A front row view of performance expectations • Deloitte Middle East CFO Survey • 7
Government: a catalyst for sustained growth




Capacity for additional government
stimulus measures
                                                                          CFOs believe governments continue
 Significant                 26%                                           to have the capacity for additional
extra scope
                                    41%                                   stimulus measures but that no
                                                                          additional measures should be
Some extra
    scope
                                             59%                          taken at this time
                                        49%

                                                                          CFOs believe governments continue to have the
                                                                          capacity for additional stimulus measures but that no
Little or no          15%
extra scope
                                                                          additional measures should be taken at this time. This
                    10%                                                   is further corroborated by a recent IMF report calling
                                                                          for governments in the region to maintain the fiscal
                                                                          stimulus steps already in place: “Government investment
  Oct-09
                                                                          programmes, especially in infrastructure, will continue
  Mar-10
                                                                          to boost domestic demand in the near term in many
                                                                          economies in the Middle East and North Africa.
                                                                          These measures should remain in place to help
Are there additional government measures                                  cement the recovery.” IMF urges GCC to keep fiscal stimulus
                                                                          steps in place. April 25, 2010 Emirates 24/7
which should be taken at this time?


                          36%
        Yes
                                                                           For those CFOs who responded in the positive,
                          38%                                              the following were prevalent as specific
                                                                           suggested measures:
                                  64%
     None                                                                  • More effective rent regulations to control inflation
                                62%                                        • Liberalization of residency status and elimination
                                                                             of sponsorship requirements
                                                                           • Increased support for small and medium
   Oct-09
                                                                             sized enterprises
   Mar-10
                                                                           • Improved pace of reforms to reduce
                                                                             governmental bureaucracy
                                                                           • Completion of the Dubai World restructuring
                                                                             with banks
                                                                           • Increased levels of foreign investment and
                                                                             ownership percentages




8 • Deloitte Middle East CFO Survey • A front row view of performance expectations
Financing the corporate sector




         CFOs’ views on the attractiveness of external funding        How do you currently rate corporate debt as a
         have improved over the last six months for bank              source of external funding for companies?
         borrowings and equity with increased favorable views
         (net) of 17% and 38% compared to the last survey.
         This is in contrast to corporate debt which saw its                                          13%
                                                                         Very attractive
         attractiveness decline by a net of 6% most likely due                                      11%
         to the numerous credit rating downgrades and debt
         restructuring announcements occurring since that time.
                                                                             Somewhat                                34%
         How do you currently rate bank borrowing as                          attractive
                                                                                                                       36%
         a source of external funding for companies?


                                                                      Neither attractive                     23%
                                   17%                                 nor unattractive                 16%
            Very attractive
                                    20%


                                                                             Somewhat                     20%
                                           39%                              unattractive                           31%
               Somewhat
                attractive                   44%


                                                                                                    11%
                                                                       Very unattractive
         Neither attractive        15%                                                           6%
          nor unattractive         17%

                                                                         Oct-09

                                     22%                                 Mar-10
               Somewhat
              unattractive         14%

                                                                      Is now a good time for companies to issue debt?
                              6%
         Very unattractive
                              5%
                                                                                                            47%
                                                                                      Yes
                                                                                                                   49%
           Oct-09
           Mar-10
                                                                                                                                   53%
                                                                                      No
                                                                                                                           51%



                                                                         Oct-09
                                                                         Mar-10




                                                           A front row view of performance expectations • Deloitte Middle East CFO Survey • 9
While CFOs view bank borrowings and equity as being                       Is now a good time for companies to issue equity?   Debt markets closer to recovery
                                                                                                                              Conventional bond activity in the
more attractive as available sources of external finance                                                                       six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council
compared to six months ago, they are not yet ready to                                                                         (GCC) tumbled by nearly 70 per
                                                                                       27%                                    cent in the first quarter of this year
access the markets. Most CFOs expect the supply and                       Yes                                                 compared with its average in the
price of new credit to improve over the course of the                                   33%                                   previous three quarters, said NCB
                                                                                                                              Capital, an affiliate of National
second half of 2010 and first half of 2011.                                                                                    Commercial Bank, the largest bank
                                                                                                    73%                       in Saudi Arabia by assets.
How do you currently rate equity as a source                               No
                                                                                                                              The sukuk (Islamic bonds) market in
of financing for companies?                                                                       67%                         the region suffered more, with the
                                                                                                                              value of their issuance plummeting
                                                                                                                              by around 81 per cent, in sharp
                                                                                                                              contrast with South-east Asia, where
                                                                             Oct-09                                           the value shot up by nearly 114 per
                                14%                                                                                           cent. While prospects for such
   Very attractive                                                           Mar-10
                                                                                                                              activities in the GCC remain bleak in
                                  19%
                                                                                                                              the near term, they are expected to
                                                                                                                              brighten in the medium- and long-
                                                                                                                              term as regional economies gain
                                                                                                                              steam on the back of firm oil prices.
      Somewhat                          27%
                                                                                                                              "However, we see an encouraging
       attractive
                                               38%                                                                            outlook in the medium- to long-
                                                                                                                              term. The GCC debt market holds
                                                                                                                              significant potential given the long-
                                                                                                                              term financing needs of the region
                                                                                                                              and the size of the current pipeline.
Neither attractive                19%
                                                                                                                              But structural risks such as ambiguous
 nor unattractive                                                                                                             insolvency provisions and a lack of
                                      24%
                                                                                                                              clarity among sukuk structures, will
                                                                                                                              require greater attention than they
                                                                                                                              have received to date." According to
                                                                                                                              the report, the growing optimism that
      Somewhat                              32%                                                                               characterised GCC debt markets
     unattractive                                                                                                             during much of 2009 seems to have
                                15%                                                                                           largely evaporated during the first
                                                                                                                              quarter of 2010 due to uncertainty
                                                                                                                              and an expected improvement in
                                                                                                                              bank credit.
                           8%
Very unattractive                                                                                                             Oil price surge to trigger GCC
                         4%                                                                                                   bond activity, April 25, 2010
                                                                                                                              Emirates 24/7



  Oct-09
  Mar-10




10 • Deloitte Middle East CFO Survey • A front row view of performance expectations
How would you rate the overall cost of new                   How would you rate the overall availability
credit for companies?                                        of new credit for companies?


                                                                   Easily         4%
                       19%
 Very costly                                                    available             9%
                    16%

                                                              Somewhat                        22%
                                           58%                  available
                                                                                                      36%
Fairly costly
                                      52%
                                                                                       13%
                                                                 Neutral
                                                                                      11%
                  13%
    Neutral
                        21%
                                                             Somewhat                                        49%
                                                             hard to get
                                                                                                    30%
                 10%
Fairly cheap                                                                          11%
                                                               Very hard
                 11%
                                                                  to get                15%



  Oct-09                                                        Oct-09
  Mar-10                                                        Mar-10




How would you characterize the current level of              When do you expect to see an improvement in
short-term market interest rates?                            the supply and price of new credit available for
                                                             your business?



                   10%                                       2010 H1             5%
   Very high
                        13%


                                     32%                     2010 H2                                              32%
  Quite high
                                      35%
                                                             2011 H1                                                            41%
Neither high                   23%
     or low
                              21%
                                                             2011 H2                       15%

                              23%
  Quite low
                              23%                            2012 H1             5%

                   11%
    Very low                                                 2012 H2        3%
                  8%



  Oct-09
  Mar-10



                                                 A front row view of performance expectations • Deloitte Middle East CFO Survey • 11
Are you likely to issue debt over the next                                Are you likely to issue equity over the next
12 months?                                                                12 months?


                                  24%                                                         11%
        Very likely                                                            Very likely
                                19%                                                            12%

                                          44%                                                    15%
       Quite likely                                                          Quite likely
                                          44%                                                           25%

                            12%                                                                        22%
           No view                                                              No view
                                18%                                                               17%

                                18%                                                                 18%
     Quite unlikely                                                       Quite unlikely
                           8%                                                                  13%

                         4%                                                                                   32%
      Very unlikely                                                        Very Unlikely
                            11%                                                                               33%



  Oct-09                                                                     Oct-09
  Mar-10                                                                     Mar-10




How do you expect operating or free cash flow for
your company to change over the next 12 months?
                                                                          Most CFOs expect the supply and
      Increase by           11%                                           price of new credit to improve over
   more than 20%            10%
                                                                          the course of the second half of
  Increase 10-20%
                                    26%
                                        34%
                                                                          2010 and first half of 2011
                                            45%
Increase by 0-10%
                                      31%


Remain unchanged              12%
 from current levels            18%

                           7%
            Decline
                          7%




  Oct-09
  Mar-10




12 • Deloitte Middle East CFO Survey • A front row view of performance expectations
The need for stronger balance sheets




                                                                           How has the level of financial risk on your
                                                                           balance sheet changed over the past 12 months?
CFOs would do well to continue to
monitor the risks on their balance sheets                                     Increased a lot            13%
                                                                                                      9%
              Many CFOs still believe that company balance sheets
              are overleveraged yet continue to indicate they are           Increased a little                       45%

              looking to increase financial leverage in their own                                                     42%
              company’s balance sheets over the next 12 months.
              CFOs would do well to continue to monitor the                                                 24%
                                                                                  No change
              risks on their balance sheets with a view to further                                             31%
              de-leveraging and restructuring debts as liquidity
              comes back into the system.                                  Decreased a little            15%
                                                                                                         15%

                                                                                                    4%
                                                                             Decreased a lot
                                                                                                   3%



                                                                              Oct-09
                                                                              Mar-10




              Generally speaking, do you think company                     Do you think cash returns to shareholder ratios
              balance sheets are:                                          are relative to normal levels?



                                                        49%                                 14%
               Over-leveraged                                                 High
                                                         51%                                14%


                                                   42%                                                            44%
                Appropriately                                               Normal
                   leveraged                      39%                                                                 49%


                                    9%                                                                          42%
              Under-leveraged                                                  Low
                                    10%                                                                        38%




                Oct-09                                                        Oct-09
                Mar-10                                                        Mar-10




                                                               A front row view of performance expectations • Deloitte Middle East CFO Survey • 13
Is it a good time to be taking greater risk into                          What is your aim for your level of financial
your balance sheets?                                                      leverage over the next 12 months?


                        27%
   Yes                                                                               Raise           19%
                           36%                                                significantly         12%
                                                      73%
    No                                                                                                          45%
                                                   64%                       Raise slightly
                                                                                                                 48%

  Oct-09                                                                                                 23%
  Mar-10
                                                                               No change
                                                                                                          28%

                                                                                                   13%
                                                                          Reduce slightly
                                                                                                   11%


                                                                                   Reduce
                                                                              significantly    1%




                                                                             Oct-09
                                                                             Mar-10




14 • Deloitte Middle East CFO Survey • A front row view of performance expectations
Financial prospects and plans




         CFOs are generally more optimistic about the financial      When will growth in demand for your company’s
         prospects for their company than they were six months      products and services accelerate?
         ago and expect the demand for the company’s products
         and services to accelerate over the coming 12 months.
                                                                    2010 H1          4%

         Compared with six months ago, how do you feel
         about the financial prospects for your company?            2010 H2                                                          38%



                                                                    2011 H1                                                        34%

           Significantly      11%
         more optimistic     9%                                     2011 H2                       12%

                                               51%
             Somewhat
         more optimistic                                            2012 H1                  9%
                                                  60%


                                   23%                              2012 H2        3%
                Broadly
             unchanged           16%


              Somewhat           15%
          less optimistic    12%

            Significantly
          less optimistic   3%


           Oct-09
           Mar-10




                                                        A front row view of performance expectations • Deloitte Middle East CFO Survey • 15
The market view




The majority of CFOs still see commercial real estate as
overvalued relative to equities with government bonds
increasingly less attractive. This suggests that despite the              The majority of CFOs still see
overall decline in real estate prices, CFOs expect better
returns in the near term for equities and potentially                     commercial real estate as overvalued
believe that the sovereign default risk of government
bonds has increased over the last six months but is not                   relative to equities with government
yet fully reflected in the prices.
                                                                          bonds increasingly less attractive
How do you currently rate commercial real estate                          How do you currently rate equity valuations?
valuations?



                              14%                                                               5%
 Very overvalued                                                            Very overvalued
                              14%                                                                    9%


      Somewhat                                    52%                            Somewhat                       33%
      overvalued                                 50%                             overvalued               24%


                                18%                                                                       25%
     At fair value                                                              At fair value
                                 20%                                                                                  39%


      Somewhat               12%                                                 Somewhat                       32%
     undervalued              15%                                               undervalued               24%


                        3%                                                                      4%
Very undervalued                                                          Very undervalued
                       2%                                                                       4%



  Oct-09                                                                     Oct-09
  Mar-10                                                                     Mar-10




16 • Deloitte Middle East CFO Survey • A front row view of performance expectations
In a year’s time where do you expect major                    How do you currently rate government
             equity indices to be?                                         bond valuations?


                                     14%                                                             3%
             Significantly higher                                             Very overvalued
                     than today      13%                                                              8%


              Somewhat higher                     58%                              Somewhat                    24%
                   than today                     55%                              overvalued                   27%


                                         20%                                                                            48%
             Broadly unchanged                                                    At fair value
                                          25%                                                                             53%



               Somewhat lower      5%                                             Somewhat                     21%
                   than today      7%                                            undervalued            12%


              Significantly lower                                                                    3%
                                    3%                                      Very undervalued
                     than today                                                                    1%



               Oct-09                                                         Oct-09
               Mar-10                                                         Mar-10




             CFO expectations for increases in PIPE deals (private         How do you expect private equity acquisition
             investment in public equities) may be somewhat over           activity in the quoted exchange market to change
             estimated given that taking companies private in the key      in the next 12 months?
             markets of the Middle East is difficult to execute as a
             result of a regulatory framework that tends to strongly
             protect retail investors.                                                                    13%
                                                                                      Increase
                                                                                  significantly
                                                                                                          8%



CFO expectations for increases                                                       Increase
                                                                                   somewhat
                                                                                                                                      64%

                                                                                                                                      65%
in PIPE deals (private investment
in public equities) may be                                                        No change
                                                                                                          13%

                                                                                                                 24%
somewhat overestimated
                                                                                    Decrease            11%
                                                                                   somewhat
                                                                                                     3%




                                                                              Oct-09
                                                                              Mar-10


                                                               A front row view of performance expectations • Deloitte Middle East CFO Survey • 17
CFOs believe their company’s equity
                                                                           values are being increasingly priced
                                                                           fairly by the market compared to six
                                                                           months ago which may further
                                                                           underpin the commencement
                                                                           of an economic upturn




18 • Deloitte Middle East CFO Survey • A front row view of performance expectations
There was strong growth in the value of mergers and                         Interestingly, CFOs believe their company’s equity values
acquisition (M&A) activity in the Middle East in the first                   are being increasingly priced fairly by the market
quarter of 2010, with deals up 138 per cent in value and                    compared to six months ago which may further
33 per cent in volume terms over the previous quarter.                      underpin the commencement of an economic upturn.

According to the latest M&A Report from Zephyr, the
                                                                            Do you believe that your equity is mispriced by
M&A database published by Bureau van Dijk (BvD), the
                                                                            the market?
$8.5 billion (Dh31.2bn) worth of deals recorded in the
region over the just concluded three-month period was
more than double the $3.59bn worth of deals
                                                                                                      5%
concluded in Q4 2009.                                                         Very overvalued
                                                                                                     4%
Source: UAE leads as M&A value doubles (Emirates 24/7) 4/4/10

                                                                                   Somewhat                17%
CFO expectations in October 2009 for increasing M&A                                overvalued               20%
activity in the region were right on the mark and with
an economic upturn now in focus in the region,
                                                                                                            20%
continuing increases in M&A activity in terms of value                            At fair value
                                                                                                                     40%
as well as number of transactions should be expected.

                                                                                   Somewhat                              48%
Over the next 12 months how do you expect                                         undervalued                 25%
levels of M&A to change?
                                                                                                        10%
                                                                            Very undervalued
                                                                                                        11%

    Increase           18%
significantly        10%
                                                                               Oct-09

                                           66%                                 Mar-10
   Increase
 somewhat
                                          63%

                       13%
No change
                         24%


  Decrease        2%
 somewhat
                  2%


   Decrease       1%
significantly


  Oct-09
  Mar-10




                                                                A front row view of performance expectations • Deloitte Middle East CFO Survey • 19
Most CFOs ideally
believe they should
be spending a larger
proportion of their
time in their roles of
strategist and catalyst
for improvements,
instead of the traditional
roles as operator and
steward of the business
The role of the CFO




        Average % of time spent
        35%


        30%
                                                                                                                   30%
        25%                            28%
                                                                                    27%                                  27%
                                                                  26%
                                 25%                                                      25%
                                                            24%                                 23%                            23%
        20%                                           22%
                           21%


        15%


        10%


         5%


         0%
                              Steward                    Operator                       Catalyst                      Strategist         Roles

          Last year
          Coming year
          Ideal




        Most CFOs ideally believe they should be spending a               protecting and preserving assets in getting the financial
        larger proportion of their time in their roles of strategist      basics right. Economic conditions have had a huge
        and catalyst for improvements, instead of the traditional         impact on the role of the CFO within the organization.
        roles as operator and steward of the business. As an              There has been a swing away from the broader roles of
        average, only 46% of the time spent in their role last            strategist and catalyst towards the steward and operator
        year was to provide strategic insight and act as a catalyst       roles – tracking financial performance, preserving
        for improvement, with the other 54% was spent on                  financial health and reining in spending.




                                                              A front row view of performance expectations • Deloitte Middle East CFO Survey • 21
Which functions report to you in your roles as CFO?

      3%               25%                33%               49%               18%           17%             13%            62%

     97%

                                                                                                            13%
                                                                                            30%
                                                                              31%

                       37%
                                                                                                            75%

                                          31%




                                                                                            53%
                                                            28%
                                                                              51%


                       38%                37%                                                                              27%




                                                            23%


                                                                                                                           11%


Accounting          Strategy         Systems/IT             HR             Investor    Risk       Treasury             Marketing
                                                                           relations   management
  Direct report
  Indirect report
  No report


CFOs have stated a wide range of functional                               “administrative” responsibilities which are often a set of
responsibilities and reporting lines which calls into                     disparate “catch all” activities further sapping the time
question “how much is too much?” before the                               and focus of the CFO. CFOs should consider shifting
performance within the core finance function begins to                     reporting responsibility for functions such as IT, HR and
suffer. It is an increasingly challenging environment for                 Marketing away and using the freed up time and
today’s CFOs to keep pace with the process of changes                     resources to focus on raising the performance of the
and deliver consistently high performing financial                         core finance activities to new levels in their organizations.
leadership. On top of these functions can be added




22 • Deloitte Middle East CFO Survey • A front row view of performance expectations
Where does the responsibility for performance lie?                         As a result of many of the events associated with the
                                                                           recent downturn, most CFOs believe the influence of
                                                                           the board is growing as directors more actively involve
  Financial performance        15%    34%         51%                      themselves in issues that affect corporate performance.
                                                                           The majority of CFOs see performance in all of the
                                                                           areas as significantly being shared with the board to
         Shareholder value      27%         54%         19%
                                                                           the extent that calls into question “who is responsible
                                                                           for what exactly and why?”.
          Corporate social
                               25%          53%         22%
             responsibility
                                                                           CFO’s would do well for their organizations by proposing
                                                                           a process of regular board assessments which would
Political and stakeholder
                               26%          63%          11%               enable the board to examine its structure, processes and
             relationships
                                                                           mandate to ensure they are properly positioned to
                                                                           address current and future priorities. Assessment
                                                                           exercises can help the board better understand the
   Boards                                                                  aggregate skills and expertise of directors and identify
   Shared
                                                                           areas of weakness. They can also help improve the
   Management
                                                                           interaction of directors and communications among
                                                                           them as well as with management.

Do you feel you have the required amount of                                Like any evaluation process, the benefits achieved
authority (support from the Board and CEO)                                 through the board’s assessment will only be as good
to be effective in these roles?                                            as the review process. Good assessment programs
                                                                           are supported by a director education program that
                                                                           addresses the needs of directors identified through
Strategist                72%                     28%
                                                                           the evaluation process.

                                                                           Additionally, many boards find their evaluations are
 Catalyst                     75%                 25%
                                                                           most effective and productive when the process is led
                                                                           by an independent, outside facilitator. Some companies
Operator                       85%                 15%
                                                                           go further and disclose, at a very high level, the results of
                                                                           the process to stakeholders. While a regular performance
                                                                           evaluation can help the board demonstrate its
 Steward                       84%                 16%                     commitment to fulfilling its fiduciary responsibilities,
                                                                           not acting on the assessment’s findings and
                                                                           recommendations could expose the board and
   Yes                                                                     directors to a liability risk.
   No




                                                               A front row view of performance expectations • Deloitte Middle East CFO Survey • 23
Interestingly, the majority of CFOs feel they have the                    What is the frequency with which you have met
required amount of authority to be effective in all four                  with the Board of Directors and/or committees
dimensions of their CFO role. 38% reported previously                     thereof in the past 12 months?
as having a direct reporting line with the strategy
function with another 37% having an indirect reporting
line. This is somewhat consistent with the 72% of CFOs                                Zero   5%
above who feel they are sufficiently authorized to
execute their roles as strategists. Authority as a catalyst
is really determined by the dynamism and personality of                        Monthly                    22%
the CFO to play a leading role and become accepted by
other members of the management team to deliver
                                                                              Quarterly                              50%
enterprise value throughout the organization.


                                                                          Semi-annual               13%



                                                                                Annual            10%




24 • Deloitte Middle East CFO Survey • A front row view of performance expectations
A comparison of Deloitte CFO surveys
in the Middle East and abroad



                                          Middle East   Austria   Belgium   Ireland        Netherlands     Singapore       Spain          Sweden      United Kingdom

More optimistic about company’s
outlook than previously reported              •              •                   •                              •                             •               •
Optimistic about the timeline
for recovery                                  •                                                   •              •                            •
Pessimistic about the timeline
for recovery                                                 •         •          •                                                •
Tough credit conditions                                      •         •          •               •                                •          •               •
Maintaining lower gearing levels                                       •                          •              •                                            •
Positive outlook for M&A activity              •             •         •                          •              •                 •          •               •
Market is undervalued                                        •                                    •                                •
Equity is attractive source of funding         •             •                                    •                                                           •
Corporate debt/financing not attractive        •             •         •                                                                                      •
Corporate debt/financing attractive                                                               •
Recession has fundamentally changed
financial attitudes                                                   •                                         •                                             •
Focused on cost reduction                                             •
Goverment should take action
to improve economy                                                               •                                              •
Bad time for additional
risk on balance sheet                          •                                                                                   •




                                                                                      A front row view of performance expectations • Deloitte Middle East CFO Survey • 25
Here to meet your needs




Bahrain                          Oman                          Syria                      Sharjah
Manama                           Muscat                        Damascus                   Corniche Plaza 2
Al Zamil Tower, Government       MBD Area, Muscat              Fardos                     Al Buhairah Corniche
Avenue, P.O.Box 421, Manama      International Center          9 Fardos Street            P.O. Box 5470, Sharjah, UAE
Kingdom of Bahrain               P.O. Box 258, Ruwi            P.O. Box 12487             Tel +971 (0) 6 574 1052
Tel +973 (0) 17 214 490          Postal Code 112               Damascus, Syria            Fax +971 (0) 6 574 1053
Fax +973 (0) 17 214 550          Sultanate of Oman             Tel +963 (0) 11 221 5990
                                 Tel +968 (0) 2481 7775        Fax +963 (0) 11 222 1878   Palestinian Self-Ruled Areas
Egypt                            Fax +968 (0) 2481 5581                                   Ramallah
Saleh, Barsoum                                                 Rawda                      Al Mashreq,
& Abdel Aziz                     Qatar                         38 Rawda Street            Insurance Building
Cairo                            Doha                          P.O. Box 12487             P.O. Box 447, Ramallah
95 C, Merghany Street            Kaamco Building               Damascus, Syria            Palestinian Controlled Territories
Heliopolis 11341, Cairo, Egypt   Sheikh Sehim Street           Tel +963 (0) 11 331 1212   Tel +972 (0) 2 295 4714
Tel +20 (0) 2 2290 3278          P.O. Box 431, Doha, Qatar     Fax +963 (0) 11 332 2304   Fax +972 (0) 2 298 4703
Fax +20 (0) 2 2290 3276          Tel +974 (0) 442 3991
                                 Fax +974 (0) 442 2131         United Arab Emirates       East Jerusalem
Alexandria                                                     Abu Dhabi                  8, Al-Zahar Street
Madinet El Sayadla               Saudi Arabia                  Bin Ghanem Tower           Jerusalem Cinema Building
Building No 10                   Deloitte & Touche             Hamdan Street              Palestinian Controlled Territories
Smouha, Alexandria               Bakr Abulkhair & Co.          P.O. Box 990               Tel +970 (0) 2 628 3581
Tel +20 (0) 3 426 4975           Riyadh                        Abu Dhabi, UAE             Fax +970 (0) 2 627 6057
Fax +20 (0) 3 426 4975           Al-Salam Building             Tel +971 (0) 2 676 0606
                                                               Fax +971 (0) 2 676 0644    Gaza City
                                 Main Olaya Road
                                                                                          Ne’ma Tower,
Jordan                           P.O. Box 213
                                                               Dubai                      Saied Ala’as Street
Amman                            Riyadh 11411, Saudi Arabia
                                                               1001 City Tower 2          P.O.Box 4056, Gaza Strip
Jabal Amman, 190                 Tel +966 (0) 1 463 0018
                                                               Sheikh Zayed Road          Palestinian Controlled Territories
Zahran Streett, P.O. Box 248     Fax +966 (0) 1 463 0865
                                                               P.O. Box 4254              Tel +970 (0) 8 282 6707
Amman 11118, Jordan                                                                       Fax +970 (0) 8 282 3746
                                 Al Khobar                     Dubai, UAE
Tel +962 (0) 6 5502200
                                 ABT Building                  Tel +971 (0) 4 331 3211
Fax +962 (0) 6 5502210                                                                    Yemen
                                 P.O. Box 182                  Fax +971 (0) 4 331 4178
                                 Dammam 31411, Saudi Arabia                               Sana’a
Kuwait                                                                                    Sana’a Trade Center
                                 Tel +966 (0) 3 887 3937       Fujairah
Kuwait City                                                                               Eastern Tower Algeria Street
                                 Fax +966 (0) 3 887 3931       Al-Fujairah
Fahad Al-Salem Street                                                                     P.O. Box 15655
Salhia Complex                                                 Insurance Co. Building
                                 Jeddah                                                   Sana’a, Yemen
P.O. Box 23049                                                 P.O. Box 462
                                 Saudi Business Center                                    Tel +967 (0) 1 448 374
Safat 13091, Kuwait                                            Fujairah, UAE
                                 Madinah Road                                             Fax +967 (0) 1 448 378
Tel +965 2243 8060                                             Tel +971 (0) 9 222 2320
                                 P.O. Box 442, Jeddah 21411
Fax +965 2245 2080                                             Fax +971 (0) 9 222 5202
                                 Saudi Arabia                                             For Mauritania and Libya
                                 Tel +966 (0) 2 657 2725                                  inquiries, contact the ME
Lebanon                                                        Ras Al-Khaimah
                                 Fax +966 (0) 2 657 2722                                  Representative Office.
Beirut                                                         Ras Al-Khaimah
Arabia House                     Sudan                         Insurance Building
131 Phoenicia Street             Khartoum                      Al-Nakheel
P.O. Box 11-0961                 Burj Al-Fateh Complex         P.O. Box 435
Riad El-Solh, Beirut             Nile Street, P.O. Box 13043   Ras Al-Khaimah, UAE
1107 2060 Lebanon                Khartoum, Sudan               Tel +971 (0) 7 227 8892
Tel +961 (0) 1 364 700           Tel +249 (0) 183 720555       Fax +971 (0) 6 574 1053
Fax +961 (0) 1 367 087           Fax +249 (0) 183 720556
A front row view of performance expectations • Deloitte Middle East CFO Survey • 27
Deloitte provides audit, tax, consulting, and financial advisory services to public and private clients spanning
multiple industries. With a globally connected network of member firms in more than 140 countries, Deloitte
brings world-class capabilities and deep local expertise to help clients succeed wherever they operate. Deloitte's
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This publication contains general information only, and none of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu, its member firms,
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Cfo Survey 2010

  • 1. Deloitte Middle East CFO Survey A front row view of performance expectations Eighty five years in the Middle East June 2010
  • 2. This quarter’s special questions look at the role of the CFO in the Middle East: how CFOs divide their time among the four dimensions of Strategist, Catalyst, Steward and Operator
  • 3. Contents Key points 4 The second Middle East CFO Survey 7 Government: a catalyst for sustained growth 8 Financing the corporate sector 9 The need for stronger balance sheets 14 Financial prospects and plans 16 The market view 18 The role of the CFO 23 A comparison of Deloitte CFO surveys 27 in the Middle East and abroad Here to meet your needs 28
  • 4.
  • 5. Key points * The region’s resilience With the price of oil hovering in the mid $80 range Key points from the survey “The Middle East, particularly the energy-rich Gulf, has been the region (well above most governmental budget forecasts), • The majority of CFOs do not see the need for further least hit by the economic downturn, and GDP growth in many Middle Eastern countries government intervention or stimulus measures at this the Paris-based credit insurance group Coface said at a conference being revised upward relative to six months ago, the time, however they believe that governments in the on Tuesday. region is emerging into economic recovery albeit with region have the capacity to do more in the future "Middle East countries have shown caution and continuing uncertainty. should the need persist. resilience being able to maintain • CFOs see the markets for external finance as having positive growth of 1.4 percent in The current economic climate matches the sentiments improved over the past six months particularly for 2009," Coface said at a one-day country risk conference organised expressed by Chief Financial Officers (CFOs) in the 1st bank borrowings and equity raising. However, most with Kuwait-based Arab Investment Deloitte Middle East Survey–Leading the Way in October believe it is still not a good time to be accessing the and Export Credit Guarantee Corp. 2009. Indeed, the overall sentiment of CFOs in the markets for external finance. The group has calculated what it region looking into 2010 proved to be consistent with • An increasing number of CFOs expect their calls the "growth shock" of the global financial crisis by taking the views recently expressed in international news, that have company’s operating cash flows to increase over percentage point difference in GDP highlighted the region’s resilience to the crisis*. the coming 12 months. growth between 2007 and 2009. • CFOs continue to view company balance sheets For the whole world, GDP growth In this second survey, conducted in March 2010, declined 5.8 percentage points while as being overleveraged though with little change results indicate that CFOs have favorable views toward it fell 3.6 percentage points for the for planned levels expected in their own company Middle East, just ahead of emerging government actions in supporting the economy, the Asia which fell 3.9 percentage balance sheets over the coming 12 months. banking environment beginning to stabilize, and the points, Coface said. • There is an increase in optimism reported by CFOs outlook for general business activity improving. When "Everyone thinks that the best relating to the financial prospects for their company looking at their own balance sheets, however, CFOs do region in the crisis was emerging over the coming 12 months with a consistent view Asia, but in fact it was the Middle not seem to have achieved any significant deleveraging East," Coface CEO Jerome Cazes told from the last survey that growth in demand for the over the past six months so financial risks remain which AFP in a telephone interview as he company’s products and services will accelerate in could not attend because of travel should be monitored and tracked closely. disruption in Europe resulting from the second half of 2010. the volcanic ash cloud from Iceland. This quarter’s special questions look at the role of • Commercial real estate continues to be viewed as Mideast least hit by global the CFO in the Middle East: how CFOs divide their time overvalued compared to equities while government downturn, forum April 23, 2010 among the four dimensions of Strategist, Catalyst, bonds are perceived as increasingly over valued over Agence France Press Steward and Operator. The results indicate that they the past six months. spent considerable time on activities within their • There is continued optimism around an increase in Stewardship and Operator spaces during the downturn expected M&A activity over the coming 12 months. tackling issues such as risk management, cost reduction, • A significant number of CFOs are reporting that cash flow management and accounting but are looking they direct a number of corporate functions which forward to spending more time as Strategists and are outside of the core finance area. This could lead Catalysts to position their organizations for the upturn to a lack of focus and underperformance of their and drive enterprise value. CFOs also reported an almost primary mandate. equal distribution of responsibilities in a number of areas • CFOs view the responsibility for performance in a between their organization’s management and the number of corporate areas as being evenly shared board of directors to an extent that calls into question between the Board of Directors and the Management. the clarity of the roles and responsibilities between these This insight may raise the following question: Does two groups. Further, CFOs believe they are sufficiently sufficient clarity exist in these organizations over authorized and empowered to execute their who is responsible for what and to what extent? responsibilities as CFOs, which is potentially good news • CFOs expect to invest more time executing as if their roles and responsibilities reflect a balance of the Strategists and Catalysts and less as Operators and four dimensions mentioned above. Stewards over the coming year. A front row view of performance expectations • Deloitte Middle East CFO Survey • 5
  • 6. The Deloitte CFO Survey is the only survey in the Middle East for major corporate users of capital that gauges attitudes toward the general economic outlook, financing valuations, and risk 6 • Deloitte Middle East CFO Survey • A front row view of performance expectations
  • 7. The second Middle East CFO Survey A special note This is the second survey for CFOs and Finance Leaders Going Forward on “Black Swans” The ‘Black Swan Theory’ is defined of Middle East companies and it was conducted in The value of the survey data increases with the ability as an event or occurrence that March 2010. The Deloitte CFO Survey is the only survey to identify trends and possible turning points. In this deviates beyond what is normally expected of a situation and that is for major corporate users of capital that gauges regard we are looking forward to the next edition extremely difficult to predict. This attitudes toward the general economic outlook, of the Deloitte Middle East CFO Survey and value term was popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a finance professor financing valuations, and risk. your ongoing participation. and former Wall Street trader, in his 2007 book The Black Swan. Since There were 134 respondents overall representing both Participate in Future Surveys the first CFO survey was released last October we have witnessed listed and non listed companies reflecting the following If you would like to participate in an upcoming CFO a number of such unexpected industry and annual turnover distribution: Survey we kindly invite you to contact us and inquire events which have had a significant economic impact on a local as regarding participation. well as regional and global level. Less than $100m 35% James Babb From earthquakes and volcanic eruptions to increased geopolitical CFO Program Leader tensions, CFOs now more than ever need to look ahead and think Deloitte Middle East “outside the box” in terms of the $100m-$499m 31% Tel + 971 (0) 4 331 3211 unexpected and how it might impact their organizations. Organizations jbabb@deloitte.com need to appraise their ability to absorb such unpredictable Black $500m-$999m 16% Survey respondents – Country-wise Swan events in a robust way and even, in a best case scenario, to exploit them as positive opportunities. Country N0 of respondents For example, how would the UAE 33 $1bn-$4.9bn 14% following impact your organization as a result of a periodic or Kuwait 5 sustained disruption? Qatar 4 • No telecommunications? • No air travel? >$5bn 5% Jordan 24 • No distribution of resources or products to/from geographies Egypt 3 outside the home country or the region? Saudi Arabia 14 • The collapse of a major Financial Services market competitor? Industry 36% Syria 6 Sudan 2 Telecom, Media Bahrain 5 6% & Technology Lebanon 2 Real Estate Oman 5 20% Hospitality & Leisure Anonymous* 31 Total 134 Energy/Utilities 12% *Survey invitees were given the option to provide demographic data, some chose not to disclose this information. Manufacturing 10% Consumer Business 17% & Transportation A front row view of performance expectations • Deloitte Middle East CFO Survey • 7
  • 8. Government: a catalyst for sustained growth Capacity for additional government stimulus measures CFOs believe governments continue Significant 26% to have the capacity for additional extra scope 41% stimulus measures but that no additional measures should be Some extra scope 59% taken at this time 49% CFOs believe governments continue to have the capacity for additional stimulus measures but that no Little or no 15% extra scope additional measures should be taken at this time. This 10% is further corroborated by a recent IMF report calling for governments in the region to maintain the fiscal stimulus steps already in place: “Government investment Oct-09 programmes, especially in infrastructure, will continue Mar-10 to boost domestic demand in the near term in many economies in the Middle East and North Africa. These measures should remain in place to help Are there additional government measures cement the recovery.” IMF urges GCC to keep fiscal stimulus steps in place. April 25, 2010 Emirates 24/7 which should be taken at this time? 36% Yes For those CFOs who responded in the positive, 38% the following were prevalent as specific suggested measures: 64% None • More effective rent regulations to control inflation 62% • Liberalization of residency status and elimination of sponsorship requirements • Increased support for small and medium Oct-09 sized enterprises Mar-10 • Improved pace of reforms to reduce governmental bureaucracy • Completion of the Dubai World restructuring with banks • Increased levels of foreign investment and ownership percentages 8 • Deloitte Middle East CFO Survey • A front row view of performance expectations
  • 9. Financing the corporate sector CFOs’ views on the attractiveness of external funding How do you currently rate corporate debt as a have improved over the last six months for bank source of external funding for companies? borrowings and equity with increased favorable views (net) of 17% and 38% compared to the last survey. This is in contrast to corporate debt which saw its 13% Very attractive attractiveness decline by a net of 6% most likely due 11% to the numerous credit rating downgrades and debt restructuring announcements occurring since that time. Somewhat 34% How do you currently rate bank borrowing as attractive 36% a source of external funding for companies? Neither attractive 23% 17% nor unattractive 16% Very attractive 20% Somewhat 20% 39% unattractive 31% Somewhat attractive 44% 11% Very unattractive Neither attractive 15% 6% nor unattractive 17% Oct-09 22% Mar-10 Somewhat unattractive 14% Is now a good time for companies to issue debt? 6% Very unattractive 5% 47% Yes 49% Oct-09 Mar-10 53% No 51% Oct-09 Mar-10 A front row view of performance expectations • Deloitte Middle East CFO Survey • 9
  • 10. While CFOs view bank borrowings and equity as being Is now a good time for companies to issue equity? Debt markets closer to recovery Conventional bond activity in the more attractive as available sources of external finance six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council compared to six months ago, they are not yet ready to (GCC) tumbled by nearly 70 per 27% cent in the first quarter of this year access the markets. Most CFOs expect the supply and Yes compared with its average in the price of new credit to improve over the course of the 33% previous three quarters, said NCB Capital, an affiliate of National second half of 2010 and first half of 2011. Commercial Bank, the largest bank 73% in Saudi Arabia by assets. How do you currently rate equity as a source No The sukuk (Islamic bonds) market in of financing for companies? 67% the region suffered more, with the value of their issuance plummeting by around 81 per cent, in sharp contrast with South-east Asia, where Oct-09 the value shot up by nearly 114 per 14% cent. While prospects for such Very attractive Mar-10 activities in the GCC remain bleak in 19% the near term, they are expected to brighten in the medium- and long- term as regional economies gain steam on the back of firm oil prices. Somewhat 27% "However, we see an encouraging attractive 38% outlook in the medium- to long- term. The GCC debt market holds significant potential given the long- term financing needs of the region and the size of the current pipeline. Neither attractive 19% But structural risks such as ambiguous nor unattractive insolvency provisions and a lack of 24% clarity among sukuk structures, will require greater attention than they have received to date." According to the report, the growing optimism that Somewhat 32% characterised GCC debt markets unattractive during much of 2009 seems to have 15% largely evaporated during the first quarter of 2010 due to uncertainty and an expected improvement in bank credit. 8% Very unattractive Oil price surge to trigger GCC 4% bond activity, April 25, 2010 Emirates 24/7 Oct-09 Mar-10 10 • Deloitte Middle East CFO Survey • A front row view of performance expectations
  • 11. How would you rate the overall cost of new How would you rate the overall availability credit for companies? of new credit for companies? Easily 4% 19% Very costly available 9% 16% Somewhat 22% 58% available 36% Fairly costly 52% 13% Neutral 11% 13% Neutral 21% Somewhat 49% hard to get 30% 10% Fairly cheap 11% Very hard 11% to get 15% Oct-09 Oct-09 Mar-10 Mar-10 How would you characterize the current level of When do you expect to see an improvement in short-term market interest rates? the supply and price of new credit available for your business? 10% 2010 H1 5% Very high 13% 32% 2010 H2 32% Quite high 35% 2011 H1 41% Neither high 23% or low 21% 2011 H2 15% 23% Quite low 23% 2012 H1 5% 11% Very low 2012 H2 3% 8% Oct-09 Mar-10 A front row view of performance expectations • Deloitte Middle East CFO Survey • 11
  • 12. Are you likely to issue debt over the next Are you likely to issue equity over the next 12 months? 12 months? 24% 11% Very likely Very likely 19% 12% 44% 15% Quite likely Quite likely 44% 25% 12% 22% No view No view 18% 17% 18% 18% Quite unlikely Quite unlikely 8% 13% 4% 32% Very unlikely Very Unlikely 11% 33% Oct-09 Oct-09 Mar-10 Mar-10 How do you expect operating or free cash flow for your company to change over the next 12 months? Most CFOs expect the supply and Increase by 11% price of new credit to improve over more than 20% 10% the course of the second half of Increase 10-20% 26% 34% 2010 and first half of 2011 45% Increase by 0-10% 31% Remain unchanged 12% from current levels 18% 7% Decline 7% Oct-09 Mar-10 12 • Deloitte Middle East CFO Survey • A front row view of performance expectations
  • 13. The need for stronger balance sheets How has the level of financial risk on your balance sheet changed over the past 12 months? CFOs would do well to continue to monitor the risks on their balance sheets Increased a lot 13% 9% Many CFOs still believe that company balance sheets are overleveraged yet continue to indicate they are Increased a little 45% looking to increase financial leverage in their own 42% company’s balance sheets over the next 12 months. CFOs would do well to continue to monitor the 24% No change risks on their balance sheets with a view to further 31% de-leveraging and restructuring debts as liquidity comes back into the system. Decreased a little 15% 15% 4% Decreased a lot 3% Oct-09 Mar-10 Generally speaking, do you think company Do you think cash returns to shareholder ratios balance sheets are: are relative to normal levels? 49% 14% Over-leveraged High 51% 14% 42% 44% Appropriately Normal leveraged 39% 49% 9% 42% Under-leveraged Low 10% 38% Oct-09 Oct-09 Mar-10 Mar-10 A front row view of performance expectations • Deloitte Middle East CFO Survey • 13
  • 14. Is it a good time to be taking greater risk into What is your aim for your level of financial your balance sheets? leverage over the next 12 months? 27% Yes Raise 19% 36% significantly 12% 73% No 45% 64% Raise slightly 48% Oct-09 23% Mar-10 No change 28% 13% Reduce slightly 11% Reduce significantly 1% Oct-09 Mar-10 14 • Deloitte Middle East CFO Survey • A front row view of performance expectations
  • 15. Financial prospects and plans CFOs are generally more optimistic about the financial When will growth in demand for your company’s prospects for their company than they were six months products and services accelerate? ago and expect the demand for the company’s products and services to accelerate over the coming 12 months. 2010 H1 4% Compared with six months ago, how do you feel about the financial prospects for your company? 2010 H2 38% 2011 H1 34% Significantly 11% more optimistic 9% 2011 H2 12% 51% Somewhat more optimistic 2012 H1 9% 60% 23% 2012 H2 3% Broadly unchanged 16% Somewhat 15% less optimistic 12% Significantly less optimistic 3% Oct-09 Mar-10 A front row view of performance expectations • Deloitte Middle East CFO Survey • 15
  • 16. The market view The majority of CFOs still see commercial real estate as overvalued relative to equities with government bonds increasingly less attractive. This suggests that despite the The majority of CFOs still see overall decline in real estate prices, CFOs expect better returns in the near term for equities and potentially commercial real estate as overvalued believe that the sovereign default risk of government bonds has increased over the last six months but is not relative to equities with government yet fully reflected in the prices. bonds increasingly less attractive How do you currently rate commercial real estate How do you currently rate equity valuations? valuations? 14% 5% Very overvalued Very overvalued 14% 9% Somewhat 52% Somewhat 33% overvalued 50% overvalued 24% 18% 25% At fair value At fair value 20% 39% Somewhat 12% Somewhat 32% undervalued 15% undervalued 24% 3% 4% Very undervalued Very undervalued 2% 4% Oct-09 Oct-09 Mar-10 Mar-10 16 • Deloitte Middle East CFO Survey • A front row view of performance expectations
  • 17. In a year’s time where do you expect major How do you currently rate government equity indices to be? bond valuations? 14% 3% Significantly higher Very overvalued than today 13% 8% Somewhat higher 58% Somewhat 24% than today 55% overvalued 27% 20% 48% Broadly unchanged At fair value 25% 53% Somewhat lower 5% Somewhat 21% than today 7% undervalued 12% Significantly lower 3% 3% Very undervalued than today 1% Oct-09 Oct-09 Mar-10 Mar-10 CFO expectations for increases in PIPE deals (private How do you expect private equity acquisition investment in public equities) may be somewhat over activity in the quoted exchange market to change estimated given that taking companies private in the key in the next 12 months? markets of the Middle East is difficult to execute as a result of a regulatory framework that tends to strongly protect retail investors. 13% Increase significantly 8% CFO expectations for increases Increase somewhat 64% 65% in PIPE deals (private investment in public equities) may be No change 13% 24% somewhat overestimated Decrease 11% somewhat 3% Oct-09 Mar-10 A front row view of performance expectations • Deloitte Middle East CFO Survey • 17
  • 18. CFOs believe their company’s equity values are being increasingly priced fairly by the market compared to six months ago which may further underpin the commencement of an economic upturn 18 • Deloitte Middle East CFO Survey • A front row view of performance expectations
  • 19. There was strong growth in the value of mergers and Interestingly, CFOs believe their company’s equity values acquisition (M&A) activity in the Middle East in the first are being increasingly priced fairly by the market quarter of 2010, with deals up 138 per cent in value and compared to six months ago which may further 33 per cent in volume terms over the previous quarter. underpin the commencement of an economic upturn. According to the latest M&A Report from Zephyr, the Do you believe that your equity is mispriced by M&A database published by Bureau van Dijk (BvD), the the market? $8.5 billion (Dh31.2bn) worth of deals recorded in the region over the just concluded three-month period was more than double the $3.59bn worth of deals 5% concluded in Q4 2009. Very overvalued 4% Source: UAE leads as M&A value doubles (Emirates 24/7) 4/4/10 Somewhat 17% CFO expectations in October 2009 for increasing M&A overvalued 20% activity in the region were right on the mark and with an economic upturn now in focus in the region, 20% continuing increases in M&A activity in terms of value At fair value 40% as well as number of transactions should be expected. Somewhat 48% Over the next 12 months how do you expect undervalued 25% levels of M&A to change? 10% Very undervalued 11% Increase 18% significantly 10% Oct-09 66% Mar-10 Increase somewhat 63% 13% No change 24% Decrease 2% somewhat 2% Decrease 1% significantly Oct-09 Mar-10 A front row view of performance expectations • Deloitte Middle East CFO Survey • 19
  • 20. Most CFOs ideally believe they should be spending a larger proportion of their time in their roles of strategist and catalyst for improvements, instead of the traditional roles as operator and steward of the business
  • 21. The role of the CFO Average % of time spent 35% 30% 30% 25% 28% 27% 27% 26% 25% 25% 24% 23% 23% 20% 22% 21% 15% 10% 5% 0% Steward Operator Catalyst Strategist Roles Last year Coming year Ideal Most CFOs ideally believe they should be spending a protecting and preserving assets in getting the financial larger proportion of their time in their roles of strategist basics right. Economic conditions have had a huge and catalyst for improvements, instead of the traditional impact on the role of the CFO within the organization. roles as operator and steward of the business. As an There has been a swing away from the broader roles of average, only 46% of the time spent in their role last strategist and catalyst towards the steward and operator year was to provide strategic insight and act as a catalyst roles – tracking financial performance, preserving for improvement, with the other 54% was spent on financial health and reining in spending. A front row view of performance expectations • Deloitte Middle East CFO Survey • 21
  • 22. Which functions report to you in your roles as CFO? 3% 25% 33% 49% 18% 17% 13% 62% 97% 13% 30% 31% 37% 75% 31% 53% 28% 51% 38% 37% 27% 23% 11% Accounting Strategy Systems/IT HR Investor Risk Treasury Marketing relations management Direct report Indirect report No report CFOs have stated a wide range of functional “administrative” responsibilities which are often a set of responsibilities and reporting lines which calls into disparate “catch all” activities further sapping the time question “how much is too much?” before the and focus of the CFO. CFOs should consider shifting performance within the core finance function begins to reporting responsibility for functions such as IT, HR and suffer. It is an increasingly challenging environment for Marketing away and using the freed up time and today’s CFOs to keep pace with the process of changes resources to focus on raising the performance of the and deliver consistently high performing financial core finance activities to new levels in their organizations. leadership. On top of these functions can be added 22 • Deloitte Middle East CFO Survey • A front row view of performance expectations
  • 23. Where does the responsibility for performance lie? As a result of many of the events associated with the recent downturn, most CFOs believe the influence of the board is growing as directors more actively involve Financial performance 15% 34% 51% themselves in issues that affect corporate performance. The majority of CFOs see performance in all of the areas as significantly being shared with the board to Shareholder value 27% 54% 19% the extent that calls into question “who is responsible for what exactly and why?”. Corporate social 25% 53% 22% responsibility CFO’s would do well for their organizations by proposing a process of regular board assessments which would Political and stakeholder 26% 63% 11% enable the board to examine its structure, processes and relationships mandate to ensure they are properly positioned to address current and future priorities. Assessment exercises can help the board better understand the Boards aggregate skills and expertise of directors and identify Shared areas of weakness. They can also help improve the Management interaction of directors and communications among them as well as with management. Do you feel you have the required amount of Like any evaluation process, the benefits achieved authority (support from the Board and CEO) through the board’s assessment will only be as good to be effective in these roles? as the review process. Good assessment programs are supported by a director education program that addresses the needs of directors identified through Strategist 72% 28% the evaluation process. Additionally, many boards find their evaluations are Catalyst 75% 25% most effective and productive when the process is led by an independent, outside facilitator. Some companies Operator 85% 15% go further and disclose, at a very high level, the results of the process to stakeholders. While a regular performance evaluation can help the board demonstrate its Steward 84% 16% commitment to fulfilling its fiduciary responsibilities, not acting on the assessment’s findings and recommendations could expose the board and Yes directors to a liability risk. No A front row view of performance expectations • Deloitte Middle East CFO Survey • 23
  • 24. Interestingly, the majority of CFOs feel they have the What is the frequency with which you have met required amount of authority to be effective in all four with the Board of Directors and/or committees dimensions of their CFO role. 38% reported previously thereof in the past 12 months? as having a direct reporting line with the strategy function with another 37% having an indirect reporting line. This is somewhat consistent with the 72% of CFOs Zero 5% above who feel they are sufficiently authorized to execute their roles as strategists. Authority as a catalyst is really determined by the dynamism and personality of Monthly 22% the CFO to play a leading role and become accepted by other members of the management team to deliver Quarterly 50% enterprise value throughout the organization. Semi-annual 13% Annual 10% 24 • Deloitte Middle East CFO Survey • A front row view of performance expectations
  • 25. A comparison of Deloitte CFO surveys in the Middle East and abroad Middle East Austria Belgium Ireland Netherlands Singapore Spain Sweden United Kingdom More optimistic about company’s outlook than previously reported • • • • • • Optimistic about the timeline for recovery • • • • Pessimistic about the timeline for recovery • • • • Tough credit conditions • • • • • • • Maintaining lower gearing levels • • • • Positive outlook for M&A activity • • • • • • • • Market is undervalued • • • Equity is attractive source of funding • • • • Corporate debt/financing not attractive • • • • Corporate debt/financing attractive • Recession has fundamentally changed financial attitudes • • • Focused on cost reduction • Goverment should take action to improve economy • • Bad time for additional risk on balance sheet • • A front row view of performance expectations • Deloitte Middle East CFO Survey • 25
  • 26. Here to meet your needs Bahrain Oman Syria Sharjah Manama Muscat Damascus Corniche Plaza 2 Al Zamil Tower, Government MBD Area, Muscat Fardos Al Buhairah Corniche Avenue, P.O.Box 421, Manama International Center 9 Fardos Street P.O. Box 5470, Sharjah, UAE Kingdom of Bahrain P.O. Box 258, Ruwi P.O. Box 12487 Tel +971 (0) 6 574 1052 Tel +973 (0) 17 214 490 Postal Code 112 Damascus, Syria Fax +971 (0) 6 574 1053 Fax +973 (0) 17 214 550 Sultanate of Oman Tel +963 (0) 11 221 5990 Tel +968 (0) 2481 7775 Fax +963 (0) 11 222 1878 Palestinian Self-Ruled Areas Egypt Fax +968 (0) 2481 5581 Ramallah Saleh, Barsoum Rawda Al Mashreq, & Abdel Aziz Qatar 38 Rawda Street Insurance Building Cairo Doha P.O. Box 12487 P.O. Box 447, Ramallah 95 C, Merghany Street Kaamco Building Damascus, Syria Palestinian Controlled Territories Heliopolis 11341, Cairo, Egypt Sheikh Sehim Street Tel +963 (0) 11 331 1212 Tel +972 (0) 2 295 4714 Tel +20 (0) 2 2290 3278 P.O. Box 431, Doha, Qatar Fax +963 (0) 11 332 2304 Fax +972 (0) 2 298 4703 Fax +20 (0) 2 2290 3276 Tel +974 (0) 442 3991 Fax +974 (0) 442 2131 United Arab Emirates East Jerusalem Alexandria Abu Dhabi 8, Al-Zahar Street Madinet El Sayadla Saudi Arabia Bin Ghanem Tower Jerusalem Cinema Building Building No 10 Deloitte & Touche Hamdan Street Palestinian Controlled Territories Smouha, Alexandria Bakr Abulkhair & Co. P.O. Box 990 Tel +970 (0) 2 628 3581 Tel +20 (0) 3 426 4975 Riyadh Abu Dhabi, UAE Fax +970 (0) 2 627 6057 Fax +20 (0) 3 426 4975 Al-Salam Building Tel +971 (0) 2 676 0606 Fax +971 (0) 2 676 0644 Gaza City Main Olaya Road Ne’ma Tower, Jordan P.O. Box 213 Dubai Saied Ala’as Street Amman Riyadh 11411, Saudi Arabia 1001 City Tower 2 P.O.Box 4056, Gaza Strip Jabal Amman, 190 Tel +966 (0) 1 463 0018 Sheikh Zayed Road Palestinian Controlled Territories Zahran Streett, P.O. Box 248 Fax +966 (0) 1 463 0865 P.O. Box 4254 Tel +970 (0) 8 282 6707 Amman 11118, Jordan Fax +970 (0) 8 282 3746 Al Khobar Dubai, UAE Tel +962 (0) 6 5502200 ABT Building Tel +971 (0) 4 331 3211 Fax +962 (0) 6 5502210 Yemen P.O. Box 182 Fax +971 (0) 4 331 4178 Dammam 31411, Saudi Arabia Sana’a Kuwait Sana’a Trade Center Tel +966 (0) 3 887 3937 Fujairah Kuwait City Eastern Tower Algeria Street Fax +966 (0) 3 887 3931 Al-Fujairah Fahad Al-Salem Street P.O. Box 15655 Salhia Complex Insurance Co. Building Jeddah Sana’a, Yemen P.O. Box 23049 P.O. Box 462 Saudi Business Center Tel +967 (0) 1 448 374 Safat 13091, Kuwait Fujairah, UAE Madinah Road Fax +967 (0) 1 448 378 Tel +965 2243 8060 Tel +971 (0) 9 222 2320 P.O. Box 442, Jeddah 21411 Fax +965 2245 2080 Fax +971 (0) 9 222 5202 Saudi Arabia For Mauritania and Libya Tel +966 (0) 2 657 2725 inquiries, contact the ME Lebanon Ras Al-Khaimah Fax +966 (0) 2 657 2722 Representative Office. Beirut Ras Al-Khaimah Arabia House Sudan Insurance Building 131 Phoenicia Street Khartoum Al-Nakheel P.O. Box 11-0961 Burj Al-Fateh Complex P.O. Box 435 Riad El-Solh, Beirut Nile Street, P.O. Box 13043 Ras Al-Khaimah, UAE 1107 2060 Lebanon Khartoum, Sudan Tel +971 (0) 7 227 8892 Tel +961 (0) 1 364 700 Tel +249 (0) 183 720555 Fax +971 (0) 6 574 1053 Fax +961 (0) 1 367 087 Fax +249 (0) 183 720556
  • 27. A front row view of performance expectations • Deloitte Middle East CFO Survey • 27
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