1. Our Next President
Predicting the next leader of the free world

2. Primaries Are Unpredictable
• Cues like party identification are irrelevant, leaving
little data that is useful in predicting outcomes.
• Unlike general elections, campaigns and how they
are run actually influence outcomes.
• So can external events and even momentum. In fact,
early voters in primaries can have up to 20 times the
influence that later voters have.*
• Polling is often off leading up to and even during the
primaries.
• The RNC is already in the process of adjusting the
schedule and rules for their 2012 nominating
process, so the next primaries are particularly
unpredictable from so far out.
• So, while there is not much we can definitively say
with regard to who will win in 2012, we can look at
historical and recent trends, the potential candidates,
and the most likely issues that might contextualize
the race in order to guess a likely outcome.
*Brian Knight and Nathan Shiff 2008

3. 2000 and ‟08: An historical
perspective
George W. Bush John McCain Alan Keyes Steve Forbes Gary Bauer Orrin
Hatch January 24 Iowa (caucus) 41% 5% 14% 31% 9% 1% February 1 New
Hampshire (primary) 30% 49% 6% 13% 1% - February 8 Delaware (primary)
51% 25% 4% 20% - - February 19 South Carolina (primary) 53% 42% 5% - - -
February 22 Arizona (primary) 36% 60% 4% - - - February 22 Michigan (primary)
43% 50% 5% - - - February 29 Virginia (primary) 53% 44% 3% - - - February 29
Washington (primary) 58% 38% 3% - - - February 29 North Dakota (caucus)
76% 19% 5% - - - March 7 California (primary) 61% 35% 4% - - - March 7
Connecticut (primary) 46% 49% 3% - - - March 7 Georgia (primary) 67% 28%
5% - - - March 7 Maine (primary) 51% 44% 3% - - - March 7 Maryland (primary)
56% 36% 7% - - - March 7 Massachusetts (primary) 32% 65% 3% - - - March 7
Missouri (primary) 58% 35% 6% - - - March 7 New York (primary) 51% 43% 4% -
- - March 7 Ohio (primary) 58% 37% 4% - - - March 7 Rhode Island (primary)
36% 60% 3% - - - March 7 Vermont (primary) 36% 61% 3% - - - March 7
Minnesota (caucus) 63% 17% 20% - - - March 7 Washington (caucus) 80% 15%
4% - - - March 14 Florida (primary) 74% 20% 5% - - -

4. GWB: 2000’s Most Moral
• McCain limited to
Northern states and
Arizona.
• As other candidates
support dropped after
Iowa and NH, so did
they
• New Hampshire:
McCain‟s only
significant victory
• A clear value
dichotomy
• The victor:
compassionate
conservatism

5. Shifting sands in 2008
• Longest primary
season in history
• In 2000, 2004 moral
values were king. Not
in 2008
• More competitive than
2000: no clear
“To paraphrase the
dichotomy at beginning
• Circumstances late William F. Buckley
elevated
Jr., McCain is
experience, creating a
„conservative‟ but not
consensus candidate.
• Conservatives did not
„a conservative.‟”– LA
need “a conservative,”
but a leader, who was
Times
conservative.

6. Primary Takeaways
Success in early primaries
While the RNC is currently exploring
changes, would-be candidates fall victim to
front-loaded primary calendars.
Broad appeal is essential
Although hyper-focused success can
prolong a candidacy, candidates must be
able to satisfy a broad coalition to win.
Fitting with the times
Candidates must be able to satisfy the
issues of the time in order to convince the
Party that they should leave them
forward. However, sometimes, issues shift
without control with bad timing.

7. Sarah Palin
• Name Recognition
Past VP candidate, already a household
o
name
Problem is, that recognition is mostly
o
negative
• Fundraising Ability
SarahPAC (already has fundraising
o
mechanism)
Able to gain funding from certain social
o
conservative groups (e.g. pro-life, pro-
gun, oil)

8. • Primaries Capability
Totally dependent on ability to revamp
o
image
Will do well in social conservative
o
states (IA)
Less in states voting on economy (MI)
o
Gallup: 39% ready, 33% not ready,
o
29% no opinion
• Republican Party Sentiment
Rasmussen post-election – 69%
o
helped McCain, 20% hurt McCain (still
91% favorable view)
CPAC strawpoll – 13%, tied for 3rd with
o
Ron Paul

9. Mike Huckabee
• Name Recognition
Past Candidate (won 8 states)
o
Huckabee on FoxNews
o
• Fundraising Ability
In 2008, raised $12,992,908
o
Will gain funding support of
o
many conservative PAC’s &
individuals
Won IA spending only $52 per
o
vote

10. • Primaries Capability
Can come out strong, win IA again
o
Will do well in southern states once
o
again (LA, KS, AR, TN, GA, AL,
WV, IA)
• Republican Party Sentiment
CPAC strawpoll – 7% (6th place)
o
12/5/08 CNN poll – Republicans
o
favor him 34% (over Palin’s 32%)
to secure 2012 nomination

11. Tim Pawlenty
• Name Recognition
Rumored to run in 2008 (or at least
o
VP)
Not as well known to most Americans
o
Most famous for balancing MN budget
o
w/no increase in taxation
• Fundraising Ability
Hard time off the start (need a familiarity
o
campaign first)
Most $ from anti-immigration lobby
o
(send in the guards)

12. • Primaries Capability
Will do well w/ strong
o
evangelicals (struggle to steal
those votes from Huckabee)
Success in MN and Mid-West
o
(e.g. MT)
• Republican Party Sentiment
CPAC strawpoll – 2% (only beat
o
Crist)
Not unliked, but such a strong
o
social conservative may not suit
the preferred image the GOP
wants to use in 2012

13. John Huntsman, Jr.
Pros
• Young
• Experienced (2 Term Governor, US Ambassador)
• Wildly popular
• Wealthy
o Capable of raising money/self funding
o Business background
• “Hot button” Social Conservative (appeals to base)
• Progressive energy, environment, and Health care
reform through conservative economic
• Early state advantage
Cons
• Too Moderate?
• Mormon
• Not much name recognition

14. Bobby Jindal
Pros
• Young
• Experienced
o Congress (two terms)
o Governor since 2007
• Name Recognition
o Republican “Rising Star”
• Fairly conservative
Cons
• Minority
• Catholic
• May want to wait for more ideal
election cycle
• Too young
• Too conservative for general
election

15. Mitt Romney
Pros
• Experience
• Name Recognition
• Wealth/fundraising
o Free and Strong America PAC
• Campaign Experience
• Appeals to Conservative base
• Performed well in early States (Iowa,
New Hampshire)
• Lame duck candidate?
Cons
• Pre-existing reputation
• Mormon
• Mitt v. Huckabee

16. Issues Likely To Come Up
• The economy will probably still be the most pressing issue in the news
and politics.
• This election will be a referendum on Obama’s presidency so far.
Republicans will be looking for someone who can criticize him without
ending up looking worse for it.
• Republicans will also have to decide if they are most concerned with
appealing to their base or with widening their appeal to more
moderates.
• Similarly, do they want a candidate who is known for their social issues
background? Their economic or business acumen? Foreign policy
background? Something else – depending on whatever issues are
most critical in 2012?
• Who among the candidates has the best experience and record in
response to the economic and foreign policy issues most pressing at
the time?

17. Primary Prediction Scenario
• Hukabee wins IOWA
• Romney wins the majority of Super Tuesday
Primary by Early February, 2012

18. Romney, the nominee
Reasons:
1.Name Recognition
2.Experience
3.Money
4. Charismatic Character
5. Letting bygones be bygones

19. GDP Forecast
• Negative economic growth
will bottom out this year
• The US economy will be
back to positive growth by
the midterm elections of
2010, and growth rate will
be back to normal by the
end of 2011

20. Presidential Approval Ratings
• There is an initial increase in
approval ratings during the
first two years of each
presidential administration.
• Decrease in approval
ratings, however not
significant enough to be
defeated in second election
period.
• 3 out of the past 4
incumbent presidents were
re-elected.

21. What do all these Presidents have in common?
- They all ran on a populist agenda
- They were all re-elected
- Generally, they are highly ranked by historians
How does this apply to the present?
- While the economy is a stronger indicator of success in an
election, examining the electoral process have revealed that personality
and charisma are also decisive factors; amid reports that the economy is
improving, and given the rise of charismatic Republicans, this factor
could count for a lot.

22. Obama in 2012?
- At this early stage, the
most reasonable thing
would be to say yes. We
have outlined the most
plausible candidates, most
of whom lack the charisma,
recognition, or broad appeal
of the incumbent. Add the
improving economy, and a
second Obama term is a
strong probability.

23. Obama wins.