1) Jim McManus from Birmingham City Council presented on health inequalities and challenging issues facing the NHS and public health.
2) Life expectancy has been rising but remains below targets, with significant gaps between the most and least deprived areas of the city.
3) Preventive interventions could help avoid millions in costs from cardiovascular disease hospital admissions each year if risk factors are reduced.
Statistical modeling in pharmaceutical research and development.
NHS South Birmingham Board tackles health inequalities
1. 23rd March 2011
NHS South Birmingham Board Seminar
Jim McManus
Joint Director of Public Health, Birmingham City Council
Health Inequalities – some
challenging issues
11. Life Expectancy
Males - PSA Target 77.56 Years by 2010
0.6 years under trajectory in 2005-07, 0.7 years under trajectory in 2006-08
Birmingham BEN HOB SOUTH
1995-1997 72.1 73.5 71.2 73.7
2005-2007 75.6 76.01 73.65 76.32
2006-2008 75.9 76.3 74.2 76.6
Females – PSA Target 81.70 Years by 2010
0.18 years under trajectory in 2005-2007, 0.1 years under trajectory in 2006-2008
Birmingham BEN HOB SOUTH
1995-1997 78.0 78.5 77.6 78.8
2005-2007 80.8 80.44 80.13 81.62
2006-2008 81.0 80.6 80.6 81.8
12. Male life expectancy - 3 years rolling average
70.00
71.00
72.00
73.00
74.00
75.00
76.00
77.00
78.00
79.00
80.00
1995-
1997
1996-
1998
1997-
1999
1998-
2000
1999-
2001
2000-
2002
2001-
2003
2002-
2004
2003-
2005
2004-
2006
2005-
2007
2006-
2008
2007-
2009
2008-
2010
2009-
2011
Years
Yearsofage
Birmingham England PSA trajectory*
Projection
PSAtargetbaselineyear
Latest
Targetyear
Data source:
England and Birmingham MLE- ONS
England MLEProjection - Government
Actuary's Department
Trajectories - PHIT
13. Female life expectancy - 3 years rolling average
75.00
76.00
77.00
78.00
79.00
80.00
81.00
82.00
83.00
84.00
85.00
1995-
1997
1996-
1998
1997-
1999
1998-
2000
1999-
2001
2000-
2002
2001-
2003
2002-
2004
2003-
2005
2004-
2006
2005-
2007
2006-
2008
2007-
2009
2008-
2010
2009-
2011
Years
Yearsofage
Birmingham England PSA trajectory*
Projection
Baselineyear
Latest
Targetyear
Data source:
England and Birmingham MLE- ONS
England MLEProjection - Government
Actuary's Department
Trajectories - PHIT
14. Male AAACM by IMD Quintile in Birmingham
1995 - 2008
Three year rolling average
0.00
200.00
400.00
600.00
800.00
1000.00
1200.00
1400.00
1995
/1997
1996
/1998
1997
/1999
1998
/2000
1999
/2001
2000
/2002
2001
/2003
2002
/2004
2003
/2005
2004
/2006
2005
/2007
2006
/2008
Years
DSR
Affluent Less Affluent Average Less Deprived Deprived
Data source:
ONS death registrations
PHIT calculation
15. Female AAACM by IMD Quintile in Birmingham
1995 - 2008
Three year rolling average
0.00
100.00
200.00
300.00
400.00
500.00
600.00
700.00
800.00
900.00
1995
/ 1997
1996
/ 1998
1997
/ 1999
1998
/ 2000
1999
/ 2001
2000
/ 2002
2001
/ 2003
2002
/ 2004
2003
/ 2005
2004
/ 2006
2005
/ 2007
2006
/ 2008
Years
DSR
Affluent Less Affluent Average Less Deprived Deprived
Data source:
ONS death registrations
PHIT calculation
16.
17.
18. Birmingham by Cadbury Neighbourhood
Classifications
Understanding these
as drivers and
intervening
variables
Transit or Escalator–
move to more
deprived areas
Isolate – move to
equally or more
deprived areas
Gentrifier -
19.
20. CVD Mortality and Cost
• There is an opportunity across City to
avoid £12.8 million (annual) worth of
admissions to hospital through moderately
ambitious preventive interventions chosen
well
• Doing case finding would give us the
potential to reduce CVD risk and we can
then model this against life expectancy
21. Admissions avoided with 3-4% reduction in risk factors
Admissions avoided with 5-6% reduction in risk factors
22. Children Key Points
• From topic to geography
• Geographical clusters with longitudinal
affect-cumulative challenges
• Focus on outcomes and not outputs-
Brighter futures Logic model
• Focus on Inequalities- reduction in rates
between geographical areas and target
groups
• Engaging with children and young
people on the results
28. Child and Adolescent Mental Health
Services Tier 3
Social Gradient for Accessing CAMHS Tier 3 services by CWI Decile
2008
BCH
0.00%
0.20%
0.40%
0.60%
0.80%
1.00%
1.20%
1.40%
1.60%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Child Wellbeing Index Decile
(Where 1 is Most Deprived)
Add
Trendline
29. Economic well being: Children's centres
registrations
Social Gradient for Childrens centres registration by CWI Quintile
2008/9
BCC: Children data
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
1 2 3 4 5
Child Wellbeing Index Quintile
(Where 1 is Most Deprived)
Add
Trendline
32. Stay Safe: Impact of deprivation
Social Gradient for Children in Need by CWI Quintile
2009
Source: Birmingham City Council
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
50.00
1 2 3 4 5
Child Wellbeing Index Quintile
(Where 1 is Most Deprived)
33. The space for
emotional
intelligence
The Challenge for most of us
and the opportunity!
• We are doing
tertiary prevention
first because of
where we are
epidemiologically
• Understand
REALLY which
levers pull short,
medium and long
term
Short
Term –
primary
care
Medium to Long Term –
LA and other players
35. Domains of Public Health
Health
Improvement
Health
Protection
Service
Public
Health
Where does this go and
when will it stop being
entirely NHS focused?
Diverse accountabilities
What about the PH role
in Commissioning?
40. Life Style
Key figures for life style Deprivation in Birmingham, West Midlands and England
Year Birmingham West Midlands England
Adults who smoke 2003/5 24.9% 24.0% 24.1%
Binge drinking adults* 2003/ 2005 17.8% 17.9% 18.0%
Healthy eating adults** 2003/ 2005 25.1% 25.1% 26.3%
Physically active adults***
2007/8
16.9% 19.1% 21.3%
Obese adults**** 2003/ 2005 23.4% 26.5% 23.6%
42. CVD Mortality and Cost
• There is an opportunity across City to
avoid £12.8 million (annual) worth of
admissions to hospital through moderately
ambitious preventive interventions chosen
well
• Doing case finding would give us the
potential to reduce CVD risk and we can
then model this against life expectancy
43. Admissions avoided with 3-4% reduction in risk factors
Admissions avoided with 5-6% reduction in risk factors
Notes de l'éditeur
I am going to talk about our experience of trying to address issues as they arose In most emergencies issues arise you do not plan for In this flu pandemic, we had neither a slow rising tide nor a flash flood experience but a mix of different issues in different parts of the country and the city I think what comes out of this is the need to seek to predict what systems of the City’s life will be most affected given what we now know, and then seek to make those resilient My guesses are most cities will see schools, nurseries and social care very affected In delivering this I am focusing on Local Authority services because this is a local authority seminar. I will, inevitably, do injustice to NHS family colleagues because of this. Setting up out of hours flu centres, for example, was a valuable experience for us. And the work of BADGER in developing clinical good practice in assessment and response is just one important piece of work from Birmingham I won;’t be able to do justice to. I will also inecvitably underestimate the role of the Birmingham Resilience Team and the multi-agency Birmingham Resilience Group. These have been hugely important and positive experiences.