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23rd March 2011
NHS South Birmingham Board Seminar
Jim McManus
Joint Director of Public Health, Birmingham City Council
Health Inequalities – some
challenging issues
National Audit Office 2010
not on course!
Leading causes of death
Common Risk Factors
Don’t wait for change or direction…move now
Life Expectancy by Ward
Still there whatever the back office system
Nothing
new
under the
sun?
Age Structure
Population Change 2000-2007
Population Change 2000-2007
Age Structure 2
Life Expectancy
Males - PSA Target 77.56 Years by 2010
0.6 years under trajectory in 2005-07, 0.7 years under trajectory in 2006-08
Birmingham BEN HOB SOUTH
1995-1997 72.1 73.5 71.2 73.7
2005-2007 75.6 76.01 73.65 76.32
2006-2008 75.9 76.3 74.2 76.6
Females – PSA Target 81.70 Years by 2010
0.18 years under trajectory in 2005-2007, 0.1 years under trajectory in 2006-2008
Birmingham BEN HOB SOUTH
1995-1997 78.0 78.5 77.6 78.8
2005-2007 80.8 80.44 80.13 81.62
2006-2008 81.0 80.6 80.6 81.8
Male life expectancy - 3 years rolling average
70.00
71.00
72.00
73.00
74.00
75.00
76.00
77.00
78.00
79.00
80.00
1995-
1997
1996-
1998
1997-
1999
1998-
2000
1999-
2001
2000-
2002
2001-
2003
2002-
2004
2003-
2005
2004-
2006
2005-
2007
2006-
2008
2007-
2009
2008-
2010
2009-
2011
Years
Yearsofage
Birmingham England PSA trajectory*
Projection
PSAtargetbaselineyear
Latest
Targetyear
Data source:
England and Birmingham MLE- ONS
England MLEProjection - Government
Actuary's Department
Trajectories - PHIT
Female life expectancy - 3 years rolling average
75.00
76.00
77.00
78.00
79.00
80.00
81.00
82.00
83.00
84.00
85.00
1995-
1997
1996-
1998
1997-
1999
1998-
2000
1999-
2001
2000-
2002
2001-
2003
2002-
2004
2003-
2005
2004-
2006
2005-
2007
2006-
2008
2007-
2009
2008-
2010
2009-
2011
Years
Yearsofage
Birmingham England PSA trajectory*
Projection
Baselineyear
Latest
Targetyear
Data source:
England and Birmingham MLE- ONS
England MLEProjection - Government
Actuary's Department
Trajectories - PHIT
Male AAACM by IMD Quintile in Birmingham
1995 - 2008
Three year rolling average
0.00
200.00
400.00
600.00
800.00
1000.00
1200.00
1400.00
1995
/1997
1996
/1998
1997
/1999
1998
/2000
1999
/2001
2000
/2002
2001
/2003
2002
/2004
2003
/2005
2004
/2006
2005
/2007
2006
/2008
Years
DSR
Affluent Less Affluent Average Less Deprived Deprived
Data source:
ONS death registrations
PHIT calculation
Female AAACM by IMD Quintile in Birmingham
1995 - 2008
Three year rolling average
0.00
100.00
200.00
300.00
400.00
500.00
600.00
700.00
800.00
900.00
1995
/ 1997
1996
/ 1998
1997
/ 1999
1998
/ 2000
1999
/ 2001
2000
/ 2002
2001
/ 2003
2002
/ 2004
2003
/ 2005
2004
/ 2006
2005
/ 2007
2006
/ 2008
Years
DSR
Affluent Less Affluent Average Less Deprived Deprived
Data source:
ONS death registrations
PHIT calculation
Birmingham by Cadbury Neighbourhood
Classifications
Understanding these
as drivers and
intervening
variables
Transit or Escalator–
move to more
deprived areas
Isolate – move to
equally or more
deprived areas
Gentrifier -
CVD Mortality and Cost
• There is an opportunity across City to
avoid £12.8 million (annual) worth of
admissions to hospital through moderately
ambitious preventive interventions chosen
well
• Doing case finding would give us the
potential to reduce CVD risk and we can
then model this against life expectancy
Admissions avoided with 3-4% reduction in risk factors
Admissions avoided with 5-6% reduction in risk factors
Children Key Points
• From topic to geography
• Geographical clusters with longitudinal
affect-cumulative challenges
• Focus on outcomes and not outputs-
Brighter futures Logic model
• Focus on Inequalities- reduction in rates
between geographical areas and target
groups
• Engaging with children and young
people on the results
Childrens
Composite
Scores
See detailed Map and Sheet
Pupil Census-Somali Speakers
Pupil Census-Pashto/Pakto
Speakers
Pupil Census-Polish Speakers
Income
Deprivatio
n Affecting
Children
Index
2007
Child and Adolescent Mental Health
Services Tier 3
Social Gradient for Accessing CAMHS Tier 3 services by CWI Decile
2008
BCH
0.00%
0.20%
0.40%
0.60%
0.80%
1.00%
1.20%
1.40%
1.60%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Child Wellbeing Index Decile
(Where 1 is Most Deprived)
Add
Trendline
Economic well being: Children's centres
registrations
Social Gradient for Childrens centres registration by CWI Quintile
2008/9
BCC: Children data
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
1 2 3 4 5
Child Wellbeing Index Quintile
(Where 1 is Most Deprived)
Add
Trendline
Rates of Chlamydia infection
Rates of Positive Chlamydia tests by Birmingham ward 2006
Source: HPU 2008
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
14.00%
16.00%
18.00%
Oscott
Nechells
Aston
ShardEnd
Kingsbury
PerryBarr
Longbridge
Weoley
Soho
SuttonFo-urOaks
Handsworth
Kingstanding
SuttonVesey
HodgeHill
Moseley
Erdington
Brandwood
King'sNorton
Ladywood
Sandwell
Bournville
Sheldon
Northfield
StocklandGreen
SuttonNewHall
Edgbaston
WashwoodHeath
Sparkhill
BartleyGreen
HallGreen
SmallHeath
FoxHollies
Quinton
SellyOak
Acock'sGreen
Harborne
Sparkbrook
Billesley
Yardley
Birmingham Average
Hospital admissions
for accidents
Stay Safe: Impact of deprivation
Social Gradient for Children in Need by CWI Quintile
2009
Source: Birmingham City Council
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
50.00
1 2 3 4 5
Child Wellbeing Index Quintile
(Where 1 is Most Deprived)
The space for
emotional
intelligence
The Challenge for most of us
and the opportunity!
• We are doing
tertiary prevention
first because of
where we are
epidemiologically
• Understand
REALLY which
levers pull short,
medium and long
term
Short
Term –
primary
care
Medium to Long Term –
LA and other players
Our Burdens of Disease
Primary Secondary Tertiary
Domains of Public Health
Health
Improvement
Health
Protection
Service
Public
Health
Where does this go and
when will it stop being
entirely NHS focused?
Diverse accountabilities
What about the PH role
in Commissioning?
Principles
Evidence: Housing and CVD
Evidence: Neighbourhood
Economics and CVD
From Neighbourhood
Disadvantage to Disease
Life Style
Key figures for life style Deprivation in Birmingham, West Midlands and England
Year Birmingham West Midlands England
Adults who smoke 2003/5 24.9% 24.0% 24.1%
Binge drinking adults* 2003/ 2005 17.8% 17.9% 18.0%
Healthy eating adults** 2003/ 2005 25.1% 25.1% 26.3%
Physically active adults***
2007/8
16.9% 19.1% 21.3%
Obese adults**** 2003/ 2005 23.4% 26.5% 23.6%
Population Change 2000-2007
CVD Mortality and Cost
• There is an opportunity across City to
avoid £12.8 million (annual) worth of
admissions to hospital through moderately
ambitious preventive interventions chosen
well
• Doing case finding would give us the
potential to reduce CVD risk and we can
then model this against life expectancy
Admissions avoided with 3-4% reduction in risk factors
Admissions avoided with 5-6% reduction in risk factors
NHS South Birmingham Board tackles health inequalities
NHS South Birmingham Board tackles health inequalities
NHS South Birmingham Board tackles health inequalities

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NHS South Birmingham Board tackles health inequalities

  • 1. 23rd March 2011 NHS South Birmingham Board Seminar Jim McManus Joint Director of Public Health, Birmingham City Council Health Inequalities – some challenging issues
  • 2. National Audit Office 2010 not on course!
  • 3. Leading causes of death Common Risk Factors
  • 4. Don’t wait for change or direction…move now Life Expectancy by Ward Still there whatever the back office system
  • 10.
  • 11. Life Expectancy Males - PSA Target 77.56 Years by 2010 0.6 years under trajectory in 2005-07, 0.7 years under trajectory in 2006-08 Birmingham BEN HOB SOUTH 1995-1997 72.1 73.5 71.2 73.7 2005-2007 75.6 76.01 73.65 76.32 2006-2008 75.9 76.3 74.2 76.6 Females – PSA Target 81.70 Years by 2010 0.18 years under trajectory in 2005-2007, 0.1 years under trajectory in 2006-2008 Birmingham BEN HOB SOUTH 1995-1997 78.0 78.5 77.6 78.8 2005-2007 80.8 80.44 80.13 81.62 2006-2008 81.0 80.6 80.6 81.8
  • 12. Male life expectancy - 3 years rolling average 70.00 71.00 72.00 73.00 74.00 75.00 76.00 77.00 78.00 79.00 80.00 1995- 1997 1996- 1998 1997- 1999 1998- 2000 1999- 2001 2000- 2002 2001- 2003 2002- 2004 2003- 2005 2004- 2006 2005- 2007 2006- 2008 2007- 2009 2008- 2010 2009- 2011 Years Yearsofage Birmingham England PSA trajectory* Projection PSAtargetbaselineyear Latest Targetyear Data source: England and Birmingham MLE- ONS England MLEProjection - Government Actuary's Department Trajectories - PHIT
  • 13. Female life expectancy - 3 years rolling average 75.00 76.00 77.00 78.00 79.00 80.00 81.00 82.00 83.00 84.00 85.00 1995- 1997 1996- 1998 1997- 1999 1998- 2000 1999- 2001 2000- 2002 2001- 2003 2002- 2004 2003- 2005 2004- 2006 2005- 2007 2006- 2008 2007- 2009 2008- 2010 2009- 2011 Years Yearsofage Birmingham England PSA trajectory* Projection Baselineyear Latest Targetyear Data source: England and Birmingham MLE- ONS England MLEProjection - Government Actuary's Department Trajectories - PHIT
  • 14. Male AAACM by IMD Quintile in Birmingham 1995 - 2008 Three year rolling average 0.00 200.00 400.00 600.00 800.00 1000.00 1200.00 1400.00 1995 /1997 1996 /1998 1997 /1999 1998 /2000 1999 /2001 2000 /2002 2001 /2003 2002 /2004 2003 /2005 2004 /2006 2005 /2007 2006 /2008 Years DSR Affluent Less Affluent Average Less Deprived Deprived Data source: ONS death registrations PHIT calculation
  • 15. Female AAACM by IMD Quintile in Birmingham 1995 - 2008 Three year rolling average 0.00 100.00 200.00 300.00 400.00 500.00 600.00 700.00 800.00 900.00 1995 / 1997 1996 / 1998 1997 / 1999 1998 / 2000 1999 / 2001 2000 / 2002 2001 / 2003 2002 / 2004 2003 / 2005 2004 / 2006 2005 / 2007 2006 / 2008 Years DSR Affluent Less Affluent Average Less Deprived Deprived Data source: ONS death registrations PHIT calculation
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18. Birmingham by Cadbury Neighbourhood Classifications Understanding these as drivers and intervening variables Transit or Escalator– move to more deprived areas Isolate – move to equally or more deprived areas Gentrifier -
  • 19.
  • 20. CVD Mortality and Cost • There is an opportunity across City to avoid £12.8 million (annual) worth of admissions to hospital through moderately ambitious preventive interventions chosen well • Doing case finding would give us the potential to reduce CVD risk and we can then model this against life expectancy
  • 21. Admissions avoided with 3-4% reduction in risk factors Admissions avoided with 5-6% reduction in risk factors
  • 22. Children Key Points • From topic to geography • Geographical clusters with longitudinal affect-cumulative challenges • Focus on outcomes and not outputs- Brighter futures Logic model • Focus on Inequalities- reduction in rates between geographical areas and target groups • Engaging with children and young people on the results
  • 28. Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services Tier 3 Social Gradient for Accessing CAMHS Tier 3 services by CWI Decile 2008 BCH 0.00% 0.20% 0.40% 0.60% 0.80% 1.00% 1.20% 1.40% 1.60% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Child Wellbeing Index Decile (Where 1 is Most Deprived) Add Trendline
  • 29. Economic well being: Children's centres registrations Social Gradient for Childrens centres registration by CWI Quintile 2008/9 BCC: Children data 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 70.00% 80.00% 1 2 3 4 5 Child Wellbeing Index Quintile (Where 1 is Most Deprived) Add Trendline
  • 30. Rates of Chlamydia infection Rates of Positive Chlamydia tests by Birmingham ward 2006 Source: HPU 2008 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00% 16.00% 18.00% Oscott Nechells Aston ShardEnd Kingsbury PerryBarr Longbridge Weoley Soho SuttonFo-urOaks Handsworth Kingstanding SuttonVesey HodgeHill Moseley Erdington Brandwood King'sNorton Ladywood Sandwell Bournville Sheldon Northfield StocklandGreen SuttonNewHall Edgbaston WashwoodHeath Sparkhill BartleyGreen HallGreen SmallHeath FoxHollies Quinton SellyOak Acock'sGreen Harborne Sparkbrook Billesley Yardley Birmingham Average
  • 32. Stay Safe: Impact of deprivation Social Gradient for Children in Need by CWI Quintile 2009 Source: Birmingham City Council 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 40.00 45.00 50.00 1 2 3 4 5 Child Wellbeing Index Quintile (Where 1 is Most Deprived)
  • 33. The space for emotional intelligence The Challenge for most of us and the opportunity! • We are doing tertiary prevention first because of where we are epidemiologically • Understand REALLY which levers pull short, medium and long term Short Term – primary care Medium to Long Term – LA and other players
  • 34. Our Burdens of Disease Primary Secondary Tertiary
  • 35. Domains of Public Health Health Improvement Health Protection Service Public Health Where does this go and when will it stop being entirely NHS focused? Diverse accountabilities What about the PH role in Commissioning?
  • 40. Life Style Key figures for life style Deprivation in Birmingham, West Midlands and England Year Birmingham West Midlands England Adults who smoke 2003/5 24.9% 24.0% 24.1% Binge drinking adults* 2003/ 2005 17.8% 17.9% 18.0% Healthy eating adults** 2003/ 2005 25.1% 25.1% 26.3% Physically active adults*** 2007/8 16.9% 19.1% 21.3% Obese adults**** 2003/ 2005 23.4% 26.5% 23.6%
  • 42. CVD Mortality and Cost • There is an opportunity across City to avoid £12.8 million (annual) worth of admissions to hospital through moderately ambitious preventive interventions chosen well • Doing case finding would give us the potential to reduce CVD risk and we can then model this against life expectancy
  • 43. Admissions avoided with 3-4% reduction in risk factors Admissions avoided with 5-6% reduction in risk factors

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. I am going to talk about our experience of trying to address issues as they arose In most emergencies issues arise you do not plan for In this flu pandemic, we had neither a slow rising tide nor a flash flood experience but a mix of different issues in different parts of the country and the city I think what comes out of this is the need to seek to predict what systems of the City’s life will be most affected given what we now know, and then seek to make those resilient My guesses are most cities will see schools, nurseries and social care very affected In delivering this I am focusing on Local Authority services because this is a local authority seminar. I will, inevitably, do injustice to NHS family colleagues because of this. Setting up out of hours flu centres, for example, was a valuable experience for us. And the work of BADGER in developing clinical good practice in assessment and response is just one important piece of work from Birmingham I won;’t be able to do justice to. I will also inecvitably underestimate the role of the Birmingham Resilience Team and the multi-agency Birmingham Resilience Group. These have been hugely important and positive experiences.