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1. Resources & Rivalry in Central Asia
Author: Davis Lewis
Published in World Policy Journal, 2008
Presented by Akash Jauhari

2. Agenda
 Political, Social & Economic Overview.
 Democracy for Central Asia?
 Rich in Resources.
 Geopolitical war in Central Asia.
 Who is Winning the Game?
 What do we expect in next 25 years?

3. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan
Area Population Nominal GDP Per Capita Density
4 mill Sq Km 61 million $ 166 billion $ 2700 15 /Sq Km
All Figures of 2010. Source: World Bank

4. Inside Central Asia
Political
 Member of Former Soviet – Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan.
 Had a political uprising in 1990’s for Reforms, eventually suppressed.
 Continues to be ruled by Autocratic Regimes.
 Military coups and battle for succession are common.
 Ranked among least ‘politically free’ nations.
Economic & Social
 Low per capita income and high economic disparity.
 Degrading Infrastructure and Education System .
 Poor Employment opportunities, high migration
 Strong presence of religious extremists and separatists.
Author believes that Central Asia is expected to suffer from internal conflicts and
poor living standards, at least in near future.

5. Democracy for Central Asian Nation?
 Challenges for Democracy in the Region
Close Economic & Political ties of Regimes with Western Governments.
Give and Take policy with the multinational companies.
Lack of Orientation for ‘Democracy’
Government too rich, people too poor
Lack of education, awareness and unity
Frequent Migration, minimum political participation.
Article states that possibility for a democratic Government or Strong Political reforms
is some what low, for next 25 years.

6. Rich in Resources
 Kazakhstan
World’s second largest reserves of Uranium, Chromium & lead
Eleventh largest reserves of Oil & Gas, over 2.7 billion tones of oil
Third largest reservesbof manganese & fifth largest that of copper.
 Turkmenistan
Second largest Natural Gas reserves. 21 trillion cubic meter.
Oil reserves of about 700 million tones.
Immense potential for Hydro power.
 Kyrgyzstan
Substantial reserves of Uranium, Coal, Gold and Actinium.
 Tajikistan
Hydro Power potential
Aluminum reserves

7. The Geopolitical Competition
Russia
European
China
Union
Central
Asia
United
Iran
States
India
Points of Interest
 Oil & Gas
 Minerals like Uranium
 Strategic Location
 Internal Security
 Future Consumer Markets like Kazakhstan

8. Positions & Strategies
 United States & European Union
2001 – US sets up Military Base in Kazakhstan & Uzbekistan
2005 – Has a alleged key role in Govt. Overthrow in Georgia, Uzbekistan
(-) Not able to convince for Democracy
(-) Not popular with religious extremists
 Why China is so Interested?
Energy needs for expanding economy
Potential consumer market
Development of its far Western Region
Urban Migration for Han Chinese
 Russia
Trying to rebuilt the trust
Leveraging Immigrants ties & historical and cultural similarities.

9. Who is Wining the Game?
 Formation of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)
A soft Military alliance
China, Russia and the four Central Asia Nations
Posing threat to political/military interests of US
India, Pakistan & Iran willing to join
 Economic inter-dependence with China
Rapidly growing trading and other economic activities
Greater migration and opportunities
Leveraging its Global power
Author believes that China will be most influential in next 25 years.

10. So what do we expect in next 25 Years?
 Central Asia to become a Geopolitical battle field between major powers. Russia
losing control to China.
 Autocratic Regimes to continue. Small political and governance reforms possible.
 Internal conflicts and religious radicalism to emerge stronger.
 West to look Central Asia mostly as a source of Oil & Gas.
 Economic disparity to grow. Few social reforms may take place.