India's smartphone market grew significantly in 2011, with sales reaching 9-9.5 million units. Nokia led the market but Android gained share, especially in Q4. In 2012, smartphone sales are expected to grow 100% to 18-20 million units as prices decrease. Android is forecasted to surpass Symbian and capture over 50% of the market due to many new affordable devices. Dual-SIM and contracts will become more common as carriers experiment with new models. Global brands like Nokia and Blackberry will leverage their strength while Indian OEMs expand portfolios.

1. India Smartphone Outlook for 2012
12th February, 2012

2. Over 9 mn smartphones have been sold in India in 2011, with Nokia
leading the market
2011 India Smartphone Market Share of Various OEMs (by Units)
46.8%
100%
27.4%
13.3%
4.3%
4.2%
0.5%
0.6%
2.4%
0.5%
Total Nokia! Samsung! Blackberry! HTC! Sony LG! Motorola! Apple! Others!
Market! Ericsson!
• As per Convergence Catalyst estimates about 9 mn to 9.5 mn smartphones have been sold in India in 2011
• For the first time, monthly smartphone sales crossed the 1 million mark in the month of October, 2011
• Smartphones have also breached the USD 100 price point, with a few Android based devices being launched in
the market in last quarter of the year
• Although Nokia had a strong lead in the smartphones segment in the first half of the year, Samsung has been
gaining significant market share in the last two quarters
• Indian and Chinese handset OEMs could not replicate their feature phones success in the smartphones segment
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Sources: CC Analysis, Primary Interviews, Mobile Handsets Import Data, Secondary Research

3. Although Symbian led the market for most of the year, Android has
been growing steadily and gained significant share in Q4, 2011
Operating System Wise Share of Total Smartphone Sales in 2011
46.6%
100%
28.2%
13.3%
8.3%
2.4%
1.2%
Total OS Share! Symbian! Android! Blackberry OS! Bada! iOS! Windows Mobile/
Phone!
• Although Symbian led the market for the year (starting with close to 60% share at the beginning of the year), it’s
share declined sharply in Q4 to reach sub 40%
• Both Android and Bada gained significant market share in Q4, primarily due to Samsung’s strong momentum in
the smartphone segment
− Having started the year with less than 20% share, in Q4, Android’s share grew equal to that of Symbian
− The growth of Android can also be attributed to its availability on multiple devices and its acceptance by the retail channel
and the consumers
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Sources: CC Analysis, Primary Interviews, Mobile Handsets Import Data, Secondary Research

4. In 2012, we expect the smartphone sales in India to grow by ~100%,
due to decreasing ASPs and availability of multiple devices
Smartphone Sales in India
Forecasts for ASP1-Wise Share of Total
(2011 & 2012, mn)
Smartphone Sales in 2012
18 – 20
6.5%
17.3%
12.5%
9 – 9.5
100%
25.2%
30.5%
8.0%
2011
2012E
Total $251 –
$201 –
$131 –
$101 –
Smartphone >$400
<$100
$400
$250
$200
$130
Sales
Note 1: ASP – Average Selling Point. We have included logistics, channel margins,
inventory costs, etc., which contribute to Market Operating Price (MOP) for our ASP
conversion. For this estimate, USD 1 = INR 60, in terms of MOP
• In 2012, Convergence Catalyst estimates the smartphone sales to grow approximately by 100% to range
between 18 mn and 20 mn, forming 12% to 14% of total mobile handset sales
• This growth will be primarily driven by wider acceptance of smartphones by Indian consumers and the devices
coming down the price curve
− The sub USD 100 (created in Q4 2011) is expected to grow significantly and contribute to 8% of total smartphone sales
− The Indian handset OEMs are expected to revamp their smartphone strategy and launch a number of affordable, Android-
based 3G smartphones based on entry level chipsets such as Qualcomm’s MSM 7225A & Mediatek’s MT6573
• Samsung is expected to continue its current, strong momentum (in the smartphone space) in 2012
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Sources: CC Analysis, Industry Inputs, Nomura – Handsets and Handset Chips (Asia) Report - 2011

5. Android is expected to overtake Symbian as the leader, garnering more
than 50% market share in 2012
Forecasts for OS-Wise Share of Total Smartphone Sales in 2012
23.3%
100%
50.6%
9.9%
10.2%
2.4%
3.6%
Total OS Share! Symbian! Android! Blackberry OS! Bada! iOS! Windows Phone!
• In 2012, share of Android OS is expected to grow significantly based on multiple devices being launched by
both domestic and global OEMs, across all price points
− Samsung’s growth and Indian OEMs focus on smartphones is expected to aid Android’s growth
• Nokia offers devices based on both Symbian and Windows Phone operating systems, with Symbian S60 based
devices in the low & mid-tier smartphones and Symbian Belle & Windows Phone based devices in the high end
− Nokia is expected to leverage its strong brand equity in India to aggressively drive the price point of it’s Symbian devices in
the sub USD 200 segment, to compete effectively with Android and Samsung
• Windows Phone will not be available across price ranges in 2012 unlike Android and is hence not expected to
be a major player
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Sources: CC Analysis, Industry Inputs, Mobile Handsets Import Data, Secondary Research

6. Key trends in 2012 include emergence of Dual-SIM devices, global OEMs
remaining strong in India & carriers experimenting with contract-based offers
Key Smartphone Market Trends to be Expected in 2012
Key Trends
Description and Analysis
Key Players
• Samsung has already launched Dual-SIM smartphones such
as Galaxy Pro Duos and Wave Y Duos. Going forward, we
expect Samsung to launch Dual-SIM versions of its popular
models such as Galaxy Y & S II
• Samsung
Emergence of • Indian Handset
• As Indian OEMs ramp up their smartphone portfolio, they
Multiple SIM OEMs such as
are expected to bring Dual-SIM capability to their
Smartphones
Micromax, Spice,
smartphones as well
Lava, etc
• In the smartphone segment, we expect Dual-SIM devices to
support both GSM & CDMA networks, especially in the high
end devices
• Global OEMs such as Nokia and Blackberry, which have
Global Players to global challenges, meanwhile have a strong brand presence
Capitalize on in India
• Nokia
Their Strengths
• These brands are expected to leverage their strengths such • Blackberry
in India
as strong brand, wide distribution network and consumer
affinity to remain as strong players in the Indian market
• In 2011, MTS (Indian CDMA carrier) had launched a
Carriers to smartphone (HTC Pulse) on contract, for the first time in • MTS
Continue Indian market, with moderate success. This initiative has • Idea
Experimenting opened up the potential for other players
• RCOM
with Contracts for • This year, we expect few other carriers to experiment with • Aircel
Smartphones
this model, on an opportunistic basis, to improve their
competitive edge
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Sources: CC Analysis, Industry Inputs

7. About Convergence Catalyst
Convergence Catalyst is a young and nimble Telecom Research and Advisory firm focusing on the Indian
market. Convergence Catalyst (CC) principals bring decades of relevant experience in the Indian Telecom
Industry. Having been Technocrats, Product Marketeers, Analysts and Business Consultants, they bring a
keen insights into the Indian market dynamics. These insights will reflect on this report to help industry
players base their strategic, operational decisions on the dynamic Smartphone Market.
The company offers Market Entry, Business Growth, Product & Service Offerings Strategy Consulting and
Custom Research in the Telecom, Media & Technology domains.
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8. Thank You
Contact Us :
Vijay Ramanathan, vijayr@convergencecatalyst.com
Jayanth Kolla, jayanthk@convergencecatalyst.com
www.convergencecatalyst.com
Twitter: C_Catalyst