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International	
  Affairs:	
  
American	
  Public	
  Opinion	
  Landscape	
   August,	
  2014	
  	
  
1
TABLE	
  OF	
  CONTENTS	
  
1.  Current	
  Poli.cal	
  Landscape…………….……………………………….……2	
  
2.  The	
  Gaza	
  Conflict….………..…………………………………………………….7	
  
3.  Russia	
  and	
  Ukraine…………………………………………………………..…15	
  
4.  Iraq……………………………………………………………………………………..25	
  
5.  Afghanistan…………………………………………………………………………34	
  
Slide	
  
2
CURRENT	
  POLITICAL	
  LANDSCAPE	
  
2
FOREIGN	
  POLICY	
  ISSUES	
  NOT	
  THE	
  MOST	
  
IMPORTANT	
  PROBLEMS	
  FACING	
  THE	
  U.S.	
  
3
July	
  7-­‐10,	
  
2014	
  
Immigra.on/Illegal	
  aliens	
   17%	
  
Dissa.sfac.on	
  with	
  government	
   16%	
  
Economy	
  in	
  general	
   15%	
  
Unemployment	
  /	
  Jobs	
   14%	
  
Healthcare	
   8%	
  
Federal	
  budget	
  deficit	
   6%	
  
Educa.on	
   5%	
  
Ethics/Moral/Religious	
  decline	
   4%	
  
July	
  7-­‐10,	
  
2014	
  
Foreign	
  aid	
  /	
  focus	
  overseas	
   3%	
  
Lack	
  of	
  military	
  defense	
   1%	
  
Interna.onal	
  issues,	
  problems	
   1%	
  
Terrorism	
   1%	
  
Wars/War	
  (nonspecific)/Fear	
  of	
  war	
   1%	
  
Na.onal	
  security	
   1%	
  
War/conflict	
  between	
  Middle	
  East	
  
na.ons	
  
1%	
  
Situa.on/War	
  in	
  Afghanistan	
   1%	
  
Situa.on	
  in	
  Iraq	
   *	
  
Situa.on	
  in	
  Syria	
  	
   *	
  
What	
  do	
  you	
  think	
  is	
  the	
  most	
  important	
  problem	
  facing	
  this	
  country	
  today?	
  	
  
Source:	
  Gallup	
  Poll,	
  July	
  7	
  -­‐	
  10,	
  2014	
  
*	
  Indicates	
  a	
  number	
  between	
  0	
  and	
  1%	
  
OBAMA’S	
  JOB	
  APPROVAL	
  ON	
  FOREIGN	
  POLICY	
  
CONTINUES	
  TO	
  SLIDE	
  
4	
  
Source:	
  Pollster.com	
  Aggregate	
  Data,	
  Latest	
  Poll	
  	
  as	
  of	
  August	
  11,	
  2014	
  	
  
APPROVAL	
   %	
  
Overall	
  approval	
   43%	
  
Healthcare	
   41%	
  
The	
  economy	
   39%	
  
Foreign	
  policy	
   36%	
  
Job	
  Approval	
  on	
  
Foreign	
  Policy	
  
worse	
  than	
  
Economy	
  	
  and	
  
Healthcare	
  
Disapprove	
  53.3%	
  
Approve	
  35.6%	
  
Job	
  Approval	
  on	
  Foreign	
  Policy	
  
FOREIGN	
  POLICY	
  NO	
  LONGER	
  THE	
  PRESIDENT’S	
  
BIGGEST	
  STRENGTH	
  
5	
  
56%	
  
54%	
  
48%	
  
46%	
   46%	
   47%	
   48%	
  
50%	
   49%	
  
40%	
   40%	
  
36%	
  
Feb	
  2009	
   Aug	
  2009	
   Feb	
  2010	
   Aug	
  2010	
   Feb	
  2011	
   Aug	
  2011	
   Feb	
  2012	
   Aug	
  2012	
   Feb	
  2013	
   Aug	
  2013	
   Feb	
  2014	
   Aug	
  2014	
  
Economy	
   Health	
  Care	
   Overall	
   Foreign	
  Policy	
  
Job	
  Approval	
  on	
  Foreign	
  Policy	
  
was	
  his	
  biggest	
  strength;	
  Now	
  it	
  
is	
  his	
  lowest	
  ra.ng	
  
Source:	
  Pollster.com	
  Aggregate	
  Data,	
  Latest	
  Poll	
  	
  as	
  of	
  August	
  6,	
  2014	
  	
  
-­‐14%	
  
Job	
  Approval	
  on…	
  
AND	
  A	
  MAJORITY	
  OF	
  AMERICANS	
  DISSATISFIED	
  
WITH	
  AMERICA’S	
  ROLE	
  IN	
  THE	
  WORLD	
  
6	
  
Very	
  sa.sfied,	
  
6%	
  
Somewhat	
  
sa.sfied,	
  29%	
  
Somewhat	
  
dissa.sfied,	
  33%	
  
Very	
  dissa.sfied,	
  
29%	
  
Not	
  sure,	
  3%	
  
I’d	
  like	
  to	
  get	
  your	
  opinion	
  about	
  how	
  things	
  are	
  going	
  in	
  some	
  areas	
  of	
  our	
  society	
  
today…	
  When	
  it	
  comes	
  to	
  America’s	
  role	
  in	
  the	
  world	
  are	
  you	
  very	
  sa.sfied,	
  somewhat	
  
sa.sfied,	
  somewhat	
  dissa.sfied,	
  or	
  very	
  dissa.sfied	
  with	
  how	
  things	
  are	
  going	
  today?	
  
62% are dissatisfied with America’s role in the world
Source:	
  NBC	
  News/Wall	
  Street	
  Journal	
  Survey,	
  July	
  30	
  –	
  August	
  3,	
  2014	
  	
  
THE	
  GAZA	
  CONFLICT	
  
THE	
  CONFLICT	
  BETWEEN	
  ISRAEL	
  AND	
  HAMAS	
  IS	
  
IMPORTANT	
  TO	
  A	
  MAJORITY	
  OF	
  AMERICANS	
  AND	
  
THEY	
  DISAPPROVE	
  OF	
  HOW	
  THE	
  PRESIDENT	
  IS	
  
HANDLING	
  IT	
  
8	
  
Source:	
  AP-­‐GfK	
  Poll,	
  July	
  24-­‐28,	
  2014	
  
42%	
  
28%	
   29%	
  
Extremely/Very	
  
important	
  
Moderately	
  
Important	
  
Slightly/Not	
  at	
  all	
  
important	
  
How	
  important	
  are	
  each	
  of	
  the	
  following	
  
issues	
  to	
  you	
  personally?	
  [The	
  conflict	
  
between	
  Israel	
  and	
  Hamas]	
  
Overall,	
  do	
  you	
  approve,	
  disapprove,	
  or	
  
neither	
  approve	
  nor	
  disapprove	
  of	
  the	
  way	
  
Barak	
  Obama	
  is	
  handling	
  [The	
  conflict	
  
between	
  Israel	
  and	
  Hamas]	
  
Approve	
  
18%	
  
Lean	
  toward	
  
approving	
  
19%	
  
Don't	
  lean	
  
either	
  way	
  
2%	
  
Lean	
  toward	
  
disapproving	
  
19%	
  
Disapprove	
  
41%	
  
HALF	
  OF	
  AMERICANS	
  SYMPATHIZE	
  WITH	
  ISRAEL	
  
OVER	
  THE	
  PALESTINIANS	
  	
  
9	
  
Source:	
  Pew	
  Research	
  Center	
  Poll,	
  July	
  8	
  –	
  14,	
  2014	
  
51%	
  
14%	
  
3%	
  
15%	
  
Israel	
   Pales.nians	
   Both	
   Neither	
  
In	
  the	
  dispute	
  between	
  Israel	
  and	
  the	
  Pales.nians,	
  which	
  side	
  do	
  you	
  sympathize	
  
with	
  more:	
  Israel	
  or	
  the	
  Pales.nians?	
  
*Unsure/Refused	
  not	
  shown.	
  
HOWEVER,	
  A	
  MAJORITY	
  OF	
  AMERICANS	
  THINK	
  
THAT	
  WE	
  SHOULD	
  TREAT	
  BOTH	
  SIDES	
  EQUALLY	
  
10	
  
When	
  it	
  comes	
  to	
  the	
  conflict	
  between	
  the	
  Israelis	
  and	
  the	
  Pales.nians,	
  do	
  you	
  think	
  
that	
  the	
  United	
  States	
  should	
  support	
  the	
  Israelis	
  more	
  than	
  the	
  Pales.nians,	
  
support	
  the	
  Pales.nians	
  more	
  than	
  the	
  Israelis,	
  or	
  should	
  the	
  U.S.	
  treat	
  Israelis	
  and	
  
the	
  Pales.nians	
  the	
  same	
  and	
  not	
  support	
  one	
  more	
  than	
  the	
  other?	
  
Favor	
  Israelis	
  
over	
  
Pales.nians	
  
34%	
  
Favor	
  
Pales.nians	
  
over	
  Israelis	
  
4%	
  
Treat	
  Israelis	
  
and	
  the	
  
Pales.nians	
  
the	
  same	
  	
  
53%	
  
Not	
  sure	
  
9%	
  
Source:	
  NBC	
  News/Wall	
  Street	
  Journal	
  Survey,	
  July	
  30	
  –	
  August	
  3,	
  2014	
  	
  
THIS	
  YEAR,	
  FAVORABILITY	
  OF	
  ISRAEL	
  HAS	
  REACHED	
  
BOTH	
  ITS	
  PEAK	
  AND	
  ITS	
  LOWEST	
  POINT	
  IN	
  5	
  YRS.	
  
11	
  
Source:	
  CNN/ORC	
  Poll,	
  July	
  18	
  –	
  20,	
  2014	
  
69%	
   67%	
   65%	
  
72%	
  
60%	
  
30%	
   32%	
   33%	
  
24%	
  
38%	
  
Apr	
  2009	
   Jun	
  2010	
   May	
  2011	
   Jan	
  2014	
   Jul	
  2014	
  
Favorable	
  
Unfavorable	
  
Next,	
  I’d	
  like	
  your	
  overall	
  opinion	
  of	
  some	
  foreign	
  countries.	
  Is	
  your	
  overall	
  opinion	
  of	
  
each	
  of	
  the	
  following	
  very	
  favorable,	
  mostly	
  favorable,	
  mostly	
  unfavorable,	
  or	
  very	
  
unfavorable?	
  [ISRAEL]	
  
*”Unsure”	
  not	
  shown.	
  
A	
  PLURALITY	
  BLAMES	
  HAMAS,	
  BUT	
  MORE	
  BLAME	
  
ISRAEL	
  OR	
  BOTH	
  THAN	
  IN	
  PAST	
  CONFLICTS	
  	
  
12	
  
Source:	
  Pew	
  Research	
  Center	
  Poll,	
  July	
  24	
  –	
  27,	
  2014	
  
12%	
   12%	
  
19%	
  
42%	
   41%	
   40%	
  
6%	
   5%	
  
14%	
  
2006	
   2009	
   2014	
  
Israel	
  
Hamas/Hezbollah	
  
Both	
  
Over	
  the	
  past	
  few	
  weeks	
  there	
  has	
  been	
  a	
  significant	
  military	
  conflict	
  between	
  Israel	
  and	
  
Hamas	
  in	
  the	
  Gaza	
  Strip.	
  Who	
  do	
  you	
  think	
  is	
  most	
  responsible	
  for	
  the	
  current	
  violence?	
  
+7	
  
+9	
  
*Unsure/Refused	
  not	
  shown.	
  
OF	
  THOSE	
  WHO	
  HAVE	
  AN	
  OPINION,	
  MORE	
  ARE	
  
DISSATISFIED	
  WITH	
  HOW	
  THE	
  U.S.	
  IS	
  DEALING	
  
WITH	
  THE	
  CONFLICT	
  
13	
  
When	
  it	
  comes	
  to	
  how	
  the	
  United	
  States	
  is	
  dealing	
  with	
  the	
  conflict	
  between	
  Hamas	
  
and	
  Israel	
  are	
  you	
  sa.sfied	
  or	
  dissa.sfied	
  with	
  our	
  ac.ons	
  or	
  do	
  you	
  not	
  know	
  enough	
  
to	
  have	
  an	
  opinion	
  one	
  way	
  or	
  the	
  other?	
  [IF	
  DISSATISFIED]	
  And	
  is	
  this	
  because	
  the	
  
United	
  States	
  has	
  gopen	
  too	
  involved	
  or	
  not	
  involved	
  enough?	
  
Sa.sfied	
  
17%	
  
Don't	
  know	
  
enough	
  to	
  	
  
have	
  an	
  opinion	
  
35%	
  
Not	
  sure	
  
3%	
  
Dissa.sfied,	
  too	
  
involved	
  
Dissa.sfied,	
  not	
  
involved	
  enough	
  
Dissa.sfied	
  
45%	
  
Source:	
  NBC	
  News/Wall	
  Street	
  Journal	
  Survey,	
  July	
  30	
  –	
  August	
  3,	
  2014	
  	
  
17%	
  
28%	
  
ULTIMATELY,	
  A	
  MAJORITY	
  OF	
  AMERICANS	
  
DO	
  NOT	
  THINK	
  THERE	
  WILL	
  BE	
  A	
  LASTING	
  
PEACE	
  AGREEMENT	
  	
  
14	
  
Source:	
  NBC	
  News/Wall	
  Street	
  Journal/Marist	
  Poll	
  July	
  28	
  –	
  31,	
  2014	
  
Do	
  you	
  believe	
  that	
  the	
  Israelis	
  and	
  Pales.nians	
  will	
  or	
  will	
  not	
  be	
  able	
  to	
  form	
  a	
  
las.ng	
  peace	
  agreement	
  that	
  will	
  work?	
  
Will	
  
23%	
  
Wil	
  not	
  
62%	
  
Unsure	
  
15%	
  
15	
  
RUSSIA	
  AND	
  UKRAINE	
  	
  
THREE	
  IN	
  FOUR	
  AMERICANS	
  FEEL	
  THAT	
  WHAT	
  
HAPPENS	
  BETWEEN	
  RUSSIA	
  AND	
  UKRAINE	
  IS	
  
VERY	
  IMPORTANT	
  
16	
  
Source:	
  Pew	
  Research	
  Center	
  Poll,	
  July	
  24	
  –	
  27,	
  2014	
  
31%	
  
36%	
  
16%	
  
13%	
  
48%	
  
35%	
  
8%	
  
5%	
  
Very	
  important	
   Somewhat	
  important	
   Not	
  too	
  important	
   Not	
  at	
  all	
  important	
  
April	
   July	
  
How	
  important	
  to	
  the	
  interests	
  of	
  the	
  United	
  States	
  is	
  what	
  happens	
  between	
  
Russia	
  and	
  Ukraine?	
  
+17	
  
83%	
  of	
  Americans	
  think	
  that	
  
it	
  is	
  important	
  to	
  the	
  interests	
  
of	
  the	
  U.S.	
  
*Unsure/Refused	
  not	
  shown.	
  
HOWEVER,	
  A	
  PLURALITY	
  IS	
  DISSATISFIED	
  WITH	
  
HOW	
  THE	
  U.S.	
  IS	
  DEALING	
  WITH	
  THE	
  SITUATION	
  
17	
  
When	
  it	
  comes	
  to	
  how	
  the	
  United	
  States	
  is	
  dealing	
  with	
  the	
  conflict	
  between	
  Russia	
  
and	
  the	
  Ukraine	
  are	
  you	
  sa.sfied	
  or	
  dissa.sfied	
  with	
  our	
  ac.ons	
  or	
  do	
  you	
  not	
  know	
  
enough	
  to	
  have	
  an	
  opinion	
  one	
  way	
  or	
  the	
  other?	
  [IF	
  DISSATISFIED]	
  And	
  is	
  that	
  because	
  
the	
  United	
  States	
  has	
  gopen	
  too	
  involved	
  or	
  not	
  involved	
  enough?	
  
Sa.sfied	
  
23%	
  
Don't	
  know	
  
enough	
  to	
  	
  
have	
  an	
  opinion	
  
32%	
  
Not	
  sure	
  
2%	
  
Dissa.sfied,	
  too	
  
involved	
  
Dissa.sfied,	
  not	
  
involved	
  enough	
  
Dissa.sfied	
  	
  
43%	
  
Source:	
  NBC	
  News/Wall	
  Street	
  Journal	
  Survey,	
  July	
  30	
  –	
  August	
  3,	
  2014	
  	
  
15%	
  
28%	
  
HALF	
  OF	
  AMERICANS	
  THINK	
  THE	
  SANCTIONS	
  
ARE	
  NOT	
  STRONG	
  ENOUGH	
  
18	
  
Do	
  you	
  think	
  the	
  sanc.ons	
  the	
  United	
  States	
  has	
  imposed	
  in	
  response	
  to	
  Russia’s	
  
annexa.on	
  of	
  Crimea	
  have	
  been:	
  
Too	
  strong	
  
5%	
  
About	
  right	
  
38%	
   Not	
  strong	
  
enough	
  
53%	
  
Refused	
  
5%	
  
Source:	
  AP-­‐GfK	
  Poll,	
  July	
  24-­‐28,	
  2014	
  
AND	
  HALF	
  OF	
  AMERICANS	
  SUPPORT	
  
EXPANDING	
  ECONOMIC	
  SANCTIONS	
  
19	
  
Given	
  Russia’s	
  annexa.on	
  of	
  Crimea	
  and	
  con.nued	
  support	
  of	
  the	
  Ukrainian	
  separa.st	
  
movement,	
  would	
  you	
  support,	
  oppose	
  or	
  neither	
  support	
  nor	
  oppose	
  the	
  U.S.	
  taking	
  
each	
  of	
  the	
  following	
  ac.ons:	
  
Support	
   Neither	
   Oppose	
  
Expanding	
  sanc.ons	
  against	
  Russia	
  so	
  that	
  
they	
  target	
  the	
  Russian	
  economy,	
  including	
  
its	
  energy	
  businesses	
  
52%	
   34%	
   11%	
  
Providing	
  military	
  support	
  to	
  na.ons	
  if	
  they	
  
are	
  targeted	
  by	
  Russia	
  
21%	
   41%	
   35%	
  
Providing	
  financial	
  support	
  to	
  na.ons	
  if	
  they	
  
are	
  targeted	
  by	
  Russia	
  
21%	
   42%	
   33%	
  
*Answers	
  for	
  Refused/Not	
  
answered	
  not	
  shown.	
  
Source:	
  AP-­‐GfK	
  Poll,	
  July	
  24-­‐28,	
  2014	
  
NEARLY	
  HALF	
  OF	
  AMERICANS	
  SEE	
  RUSSIA	
  AS	
  A	
  
SERIOUS	
  PROBLEM;	
  ONE	
  QUARTER	
  SEES	
  
RUSSIA	
  AS	
  AN	
  ADVERSARY	
  
20	
  
Source:	
  Pew	
  Research	
  Center	
  Poll,	
  July	
  24	
  –	
  27,	
  2014	
  
All	
  things	
  considered,	
  which	
  of	
  these	
  descrip.ons	
  comes	
  closest	
  to	
  your	
  view	
  
of	
  Russia	
  today.	
  Do	
  you	
  think	
  Russia	
  is:	
  
18%	
  
15%	
  
18%	
  
26%	
   26%	
  
48%	
  
32%	
  
36%	
  
43%	
  
49%	
  
28%	
  
42%	
  
40%	
  
22%	
  
15%	
  
Sept	
  2008	
   	
  Oct	
  2009	
   Oct	
  2013	
   Mar	
  2014	
   Jul	
  2014	
  
An	
  adversary	
  
A	
  serious	
  problem	
  
but	
  not	
  an	
  
adversary	
  	
  
Not	
  much	
  of	
  a	
  
problem	
  
*Unsure/Refused	
  not	
  shown.	
  
MOST	
  AMERICANS	
  THINK	
  THE	
  CRASH	
  WAS	
  LIKELY	
  
CAUSED	
  BY	
  A	
  SEPARATIST	
  GROUP	
  IN	
  UKRAINE	
  
21	
  
Based	
  on	
  what	
  you	
  have	
  read	
  or	
  heard,	
  do	
  you	
  think	
  it	
  is	
  very	
  likely,	
  somewhat	
  likely,	
  
somewhat	
  unlikely	
  or	
  very	
  unlikely	
  that	
  the	
  missile	
  that	
  caused	
  the	
  airplane	
  crash	
  was	
  
launched	
  by	
  a	
  separa.st	
  group	
  in	
  Ukraine?	
  
Very	
  likely	
  
56%	
  
Somewhat	
  
likely	
  
24%	
  
Somewhat	
  
unlikely	
  
6%	
  
Very	
  unlikely	
  
8%	
   No	
  	
  
Opinion	
  
7%	
   80%	
  think	
  that	
  it	
  
was	
  likely	
  caused	
  by	
  a	
  
separa.st	
  group	
  
Source:	
  CNN/ORC	
  Poll,	
  July	
  18-­‐20,	
  2014	
  
AND	
  HALF	
  OF	
  AMERICANS	
  THINK	
  THAT	
  RUSSIA	
  IS	
  
INDIRECTLY	
  RESPONSIBLE	
  FOR	
  THE	
  CRASH	
  	
  
22	
  
Just	
  your	
  best	
  guess	
  –	
  based	
  on	
  what	
  you	
  have	
  read	
  or	
  heard,	
  do	
  you	
  think	
  Russia	
  is	
  
directly	
  responsible	
  for	
  the	
  crash	
  of	
  the	
  airplane,	
  indirectly	
  responsible,	
  or	
  not	
  
responsible	
  at	
  all?	
  
34%	
  
51%	
  
11%	
  
Directly	
  responsible	
   Indirectly	
  responsible	
   Not	
  responsible	
  at	
  all	
  
Source:	
  CNN/ORC	
  Poll,	
  July	
  18-­‐20,	
  2014	
  
*No	
  opinion	
  not	
  shown	
  
A	
  PLURALITY	
  OF	
  AMERICANS	
  ARE	
  
DISSATISFIED	
  WITH	
  THE	
  U.S.’S	
  ACTIONS	
  IN	
  
DEALING	
  WITH	
  THE	
  CRASH	
  
23	
  
When	
  it	
  comes	
  to	
  how	
  the	
  United	
  States	
  is	
  dealing	
  with	
  the	
  commercial	
  airline	
  shot	
  
down	
  in	
  Ukraine	
  are	
  you	
  sa.sfied	
  or	
  dissa.sfied	
  with	
  our	
  ac.ons	
  or	
  do	
  you	
  not	
  know	
  
enough	
  to	
  have	
  an	
  opinion	
  one	
  way	
  or	
  the	
  other?	
  [IF	
  DISSATISFIED]	
  And	
  is	
  that	
  because	
  
the	
  United	
  States	
  has	
  gopen	
  too	
  involved	
  or	
  not	
  involved	
  enough?	
  
Sa.sfied	
  
26%	
  
Don't	
  know	
  
enough	
  to	
  	
  
have	
  an	
  opinion	
  
33%	
  
Not	
  sure	
  
4%	
  
Dissa.sfied,	
  too	
  
involved	
  
Dissa.sfied,	
  not	
  
involved	
  enough	
  
Dissa.sfied	
  	
  
37%	
  
Source:	
  NBC	
  News/Wall	
  Street	
  Journal	
  Survey,	
  July	
  30	
  –	
  August	
  3,	
  2014	
  	
  
7%	
  
30%	
  
IF	
  RUSSIA	
  IS	
  SHOWN	
  TO	
  BE	
  RESPONSIBLE	
  -­‐	
  
MOST	
  AMERICANS	
  THINK	
  THAT	
  THE	
  U.S.	
  
SHOULD	
  RESPOND	
  WITH	
  SANCTIONS	
  	
  
24	
  
If	
  there	
  is	
  clear	
  evidence	
  that	
  Russia	
  is	
  responsible	
  for	
  the	
  airplane	
  crash,	
  what	
  do	
  you	
  
think	
  the	
  United	
  States	
  should	
  do	
  in	
  response:	
  
19%	
  
71%	
  
9%	
  
No	
  ac.on	
  
Sanc.ons	
  
Military	
  Ac.on	
  
Source:	
  CNN/ORC	
  Poll,	
  July	
  18-­‐20,	
  2014	
  
*No	
  opinion	
  not	
  shown.	
  
25	
  
IRAQ	
  	
  
25	
  
A	
  MAJORITY	
  OF	
  AMERICANS	
  CONTINUES	
  TO	
  
BELIEVE	
  THAT	
  THE	
  WAR	
  IN	
  IRAQ	
  WAS	
  A	
  MISTAKE	
  
26	
  
Source:	
  Quinnipiac	
  University	
  Poll,	
  June	
  24-­‐30,	
  2014	
  
39%	
   37%	
   35%	
  
38%	
  
33%	
  
36%	
   36%	
   36%	
  
32%	
  
55%	
   57%	
   59%	
  
55%	
  
62%	
  
58%	
   60%	
   60%	
   61%	
  
Apr	
  2007	
   Jun	
  2007	
   Aug	
  2007	
   Oct	
  2007	
   May	
  2008	
   Nov	
  2008	
   Feb	
  2009	
   Oct	
  2011	
   Jun	
  2014	
  
Wrong	
  thing	
  
Right	
  thing	
  
Do	
  you	
  think	
  going	
  to	
  war	
  with	
  Iraq	
  in	
  2003	
  was	
  the	
  right	
  thing	
  for	
  the	
  United	
  
States	
  to	
  do	
  or	
  the	
  wrong	
  thing?	
  
*Unsure/No	
  Answer	
  not	
  shown.	
  
AND	
  A	
  MAJORITY	
  THINKS	
  HISTORY	
  WILL	
  
JUDGE	
  THE	
  WAR	
  IN	
  IRAQ	
  AS	
  A	
  FAILURE	
  
27	
  
Source:	
  AP-­‐GfK	
  Poll,	
  July	
  24-­‐28,	
  2014	
  	
  
Just	
  your	
  best	
  guess,	
  how	
  do	
  you	
  think	
  
history	
  will	
  judge	
  the	
  war	
  in	
  Iraq?	
  
78%	
  think	
  it	
  will	
  be	
  judged	
  a	
  failure	
  
1%	
  
18%	
  
55%	
  
23%	
  
Complete	
  Success	
   More	
  of	
  a	
  success	
  
than	
  a	
  failure	
  
More	
  of	
  a	
  failure	
  than	
  
a	
  success	
  
Complete	
  failure	
  
*Refused/Not	
  Answered	
  not	
  shown.	
  
MOST	
  AMERICANS	
  THINK	
  IT	
  WAS	
  THE	
  RIGHT	
  
DECISION	
  TO	
  WITHDRAW	
  TROOPS	
  FROM	
  IRAQ	
  
28	
  
Source:	
  AP-­‐GfK	
  Poll,	
  July	
  24-­‐28,	
  2014	
  	
  
Overall,	
  do	
  you	
  think	
  the	
  United	
  States	
  did	
  the	
  right	
  thing	
  or	
  the	
  wrong	
  thing	
  by	
  
withdrawing	
  most	
  of	
  its	
  troops	
  from	
  Iraq	
  in	
  2011?	
  
Right	
  thing	
  
70%	
  
Wrong	
  
thing	
  
27%	
  
Refused	
  
3%	
  
A	
  MAJORITY	
  OF	
  AMERICANS	
  THINK	
  THAT	
  
GETTING	
  INVOLVED	
  IN	
  THE	
  CURRENT	
  CONFLICT	
  
IS	
  NOT	
  IN	
  THE	
  NATIONAL	
  INTEREST	
  
29	
  
Source:	
  Quinnipiac	
  University	
  Poll,	
  June	
  24-­‐30,	
  2014	
  
56%	
  
39%	
  
Not	
  in	
  the	
  na.onal	
  interest	
  
In	
  the	
  na.onal	
  interest	
  
Do	
  you	
  think	
  it	
  is	
  in	
  the	
  na.onal	
  interest	
  of	
  the	
  United	
  States	
  to	
  be	
  involved	
  in	
  
the	
  conflict	
  in	
  Iraq,	
  or	
  not?	
  
*Unsure/No	
  answer	
  not	
  shown.	
  
THEREFORE,	
  A	
  MAJORITY	
  OF	
  AMERICANS	
  OPPOSE	
  
SENDING	
  GROUND	
  TROOPS	
  BACK	
  INTO	
  IRAQ	
  
30	
  
Source:	
  Quinnipiac	
  University	
  Poll,	
  June	
  24-­‐30,	
  2014	
  
Support	
  
29%	
  
Oppose	
  
63%	
  
Unsure	
  
8%	
  
Do	
  you	
  support	
  or	
  oppose	
  the	
  U.S.	
  sending	
  ground	
  troops	
  back	
  into	
  Iraq	
  to	
  
help	
  the	
  Iraqi	
  government	
  defeat	
  Islamic	
  militants?	
  	
  
HOWEVER,	
  A	
  PLURALITY	
  OF	
  AMERICANS	
  ARE	
  
DISSATISFIED	
  WITH	
  HOW	
  THE	
  U.S.	
  IS	
  HANDLING	
  
THE	
  RISE	
  OF	
  ISIS	
  
31	
  
When	
  it	
  comes	
  to	
  how	
  the	
  United	
  States	
  is	
  dealing	
  with	
  the	
  rise	
  of	
  the	
  terrorists	
  group	
  Isis	
  
in	
  Iraq	
  are	
  you	
  sa.sfied	
  or	
  dissa.sfied	
  with	
  our	
  ac.ons	
  or	
  do	
  you	
  not	
  know	
  enough	
  to	
  have	
  
an	
  opinion	
  one	
  way	
  or	
  the	
  other?	
  [IF	
  DISSATISFIED]	
  And	
  is	
  this	
  because	
  the	
  United	
  States	
  
has	
  gopen	
  too	
  involved	
  or	
  not	
  involved	
  enough?	
  
Sa.sfied	
  
14%	
  
Don't	
  know	
  
enough	
  to	
  have	
  
	
  an	
  opinion	
  
40%	
  
Not	
  sure	
  
4%	
  
Dissa.sfied,	
  too	
  
involved	
  
Dissa.sfied,	
  not	
  
involved	
  enough	
  
Dissa.sfied	
  	
  
42%	
  
Source:	
  NBC	
  News/WallStreet	
  Journal	
  Survey,	
  July	
  30	
  –	
  August	
  3,	
  2014	
  	
  
12%	
  
30%	
  
AND	
  AMERICANS	
  ARE	
  DIVIDED	
  ON	
  AIR	
  STRIKES	
  
AGAINST	
  THE	
  SUNNI	
  INSURGENTS	
  
32	
  
45%	
   46%	
  
8%	
  
Support	
   Oppose	
   No	
  opinion	
  
Overall,	
  do	
  you	
  support	
  or	
  oppose	
  U.S.	
  airstrikes	
  against	
  the	
  Sunni	
  insurgents	
  in	
  Iraq?	
  
Source:	
  ABC	
  News/Washington	
  Post	
  Poll,	
  June	
  18-­‐22,	
  2014	
  	
  
MOST	
  AMERICANS	
  DO	
  NOT	
  THINK	
  THAT	
  A	
  
DEMOCRATIC	
  GOVERNMENT	
  WILL	
  BE	
  ESTABLISHED	
  
33	
  
Source:	
  AP-­‐GfK	
  Poll,	
  July	
  24-­‐28,	
  2014	
  	
  
Very/
somewhat	
  
likely	
  	
  
16%	
  
Not	
  too/not	
  at	
  
all	
  likely	
  
80%	
  
Refused/Not	
  
Answered	
  
3%	
  
How	
  likely	
  is	
  it	
  that	
  a	
  stable,	
  democra.c	
  government	
  will	
  be	
  established	
  in	
  Iraq?	
  
AFGHANISTAN	
  
34	
  
A	
  MAJORITY	
  THINKS	
  THE	
  SITUATION	
  IN	
  AFGHANISTAN	
  
IS	
  IMPORTANT	
  AND	
  DISAPPROVES	
  OF	
  HOW	
  THE	
  
PRESIDENT	
  IS	
  HANDLING	
  IT	
  
35	
  
Source:	
  AP-­‐GfK	
  Poll,	
  July	
  24-­‐28,	
  2014	
  
40%	
  
31%	
  
28%	
  
Extremely/Very	
  
Important	
  
Moderately	
  
Important	
  
Slightly/Not	
  
Important	
  
How	
  important	
  are	
  each	
  of	
  the	
  following	
  
issues	
  to	
  you	
  personally?	
  [The	
  Situa.on	
  in	
  
Afghanistan]	
  
Approve	
  
22%	
  
Lean	
  toward	
  
approving	
  
15%	
  
Don't	
  lean	
  
either	
  way	
  
2%	
  
Lean	
  
towards	
  
disapproving	
  
15%	
  
Disapprove	
  
45%	
  
Overall,	
  do	
  you	
  approve,	
  disapprove,	
  or	
  
neither	
  approve	
  nor	
  disapprove	
  of	
  the	
  way	
  
Barak	
  Obama	
  is	
  handling	
  [The	
  Situa.on	
  in	
  
Afghanistan]	
  
MOST	
  AMERICANS	
  THINK	
  HISTORY	
  WILL	
  	
  
REMEMBER	
  THE	
  AFGHAN	
  WAR	
  AS	
  A	
  FAILURE	
  
36	
  
Source:	
  AP-­‐GfK	
  Poll,	
  July	
  24-­‐28,	
  2014	
  
2%	
  
21%	
  
51%	
  
23%	
  
Complete	
  success	
   More	
  of	
  a	
  successs	
  
than	
  failure	
  
More	
  of	
  a	
  failure	
  
than	
  success	
  
Complete	
  failure	
  
Just	
  your	
  best	
  guess,	
  how	
  do	
  you	
  think	
  history	
  will	
  judge	
  the	
  war	
  in	
  Afghanistan?	
  
74%	
  
*Refused/Not	
  Answered	
  not	
  shown.	
  
AND	
  MOST	
  AMERICANS	
  SAY	
  THE	
  U.S.	
  DID	
  THE	
  
RIGHT	
  THING	
  BY	
  PLANNING	
  TO	
  WITHDRAW	
  
37	
  
Source:	
  AP-­‐GfK	
  Poll,	
  July	
  24-­‐28,	
  2014	
  
Right	
  thing	
  
70%	
  
Wrong	
  
thing	
  
26%	
  
Refused	
  
4%	
  
Overall,	
  do	
  you	
  think	
  the	
  United	
  States	
  is	
  doing	
  the	
  right	
  thing	
  or	
  the	
  wrong	
  
thing	
  by	
  planning	
  to	
  withdraw	
  most	
  of	
  its	
  troops	
  from	
  Afghanistan	
  in	
  2014?	
  
HOWEVER,	
  HALF	
  OF	
  AMERICANS	
  NOW	
  THINK	
  THE	
  
SITUATION	
  IN	
  AFGHANISTAN	
  WILL	
  GET	
  WORSE	
  
38	
  
Source:	
  AP-­‐GfK	
  Poll,	
  July	
  24-­‐28,	
  2014	
  
31%	
  
19%	
  
22%	
  
16%	
   11%	
  
23%	
  
29%	
  
31%	
   32%	
  
50%	
  
44%	
  
49%	
  
46%	
  
51%	
  
37%	
  
Dec	
  2009	
   Aug	
  2010	
   Sept	
  2010	
   Dec	
  2013	
   Jul	
  2014	
  
Get	
  beSer	
  
Over	
  the	
  next	
  year,	
  do	
  you	
  expect	
  the	
  situa.on	
  in	
  Afghanistan	
  to:	
  
Get	
  worse	
  
Stay	
  about	
  
the	
  same	
  
+18	
  
*Refused/Not	
  Answered	
  not	
  shown.	
  
AND	
  ULTIMATELY,	
  MOST	
  AMERICANS	
  THINK	
  
THAT	
  IT	
  IS	
  NOT	
  LIKELY	
  THAT	
  A	
  DEMOCRATIC	
  
GOVERNMENT	
  WILL	
  BE	
  ESTABLISHED	
  
39	
  
Source:	
  AP-­‐GfK	
  Poll,	
  July	
  24-­‐28,	
  2014	
  	
  
Very	
  likely	
  
2%	
  
Somewhat	
  likely	
  
18%	
  
Not	
  too	
  likely	
  
50%	
  
Not	
  at	
  all	
  likely	
  
28%	
  
Refused/Not	
  
answered	
  
2%	
  
How	
  likely	
  is	
  it	
  that	
  a	
  stable,	
  democra.c	
  government	
  will	
  be	
  established	
  in	
  Afghanistan?	
  
78%	
  say	
  it	
  is	
  not	
  
too	
  or	
  not	
  at	
  all	
  likely	
  
that	
  a	
  stable	
  
democra.c	
  
government	
  will	
  be	
  
established	
  
40
GPG	
  Research	
  
	
  
GPG	
  has	
  a	
  full-­‐scale	
  internal	
  research	
  team	
  offering	
  the	
  full	
  complement	
  of	
  qualita.ve	
  and	
  
quan.ta.ve	
  public	
  opinion	
  research	
  services.	
  	
  We	
  use	
  research	
  to	
  inform	
  message	
  
development	
  and	
  communica.on	
  strategy,	
  as	
  well	
  as	
  to	
  help	
  clients	
  assess	
  and	
  monitor	
  
cri.cal	
  issues	
  and	
  track	
  the	
  effec.veness	
  of	
  strategic	
  communica.on	
  campaigns.	
  
	
  
GPG	
  has	
  a	
  deep	
  experience	
  conduc.ng	
  research	
  about	
  complex	
  interna.onal	
  affairs	
  topics	
  
with	
  diverse	
  audiences.	
  We	
  go	
  beyond	
  the	
  standard	
  Q&A,	
  using	
  innova.ve,	
  projec.ve	
  
techniques	
  to	
  uncover	
  key	
  insights.	
  The	
  result	
  is	
  ac.onable	
  research	
  that	
  helps	
  shape	
  our	
  
clients’	
  messaging	
  and	
  strategy.	
  
	
  
For	
  more	
  informaUon	
  about	
  this	
  presentaUon	
  or	
  to	
  find	
  out	
  more	
  
about	
  GPG’s	
  research	
  capabiliUes	
  contact:	
  	
  
	
  	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
Jason	
  Boxt	
  (Jboxt@gpgdc.com)	
  

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Public opinion landscape international affairs 8.12.14

  • 1. International  Affairs:   American  Public  Opinion  Landscape   August,  2014    
  • 2. 1 TABLE  OF  CONTENTS   1.  Current  Poli.cal  Landscape…………….……………………………….……2   2.  The  Gaza  Conflict….………..…………………………………………………….7   3.  Russia  and  Ukraine…………………………………………………………..…15   4.  Iraq……………………………………………………………………………………..25   5.  Afghanistan…………………………………………………………………………34   Slide  
  • 4. FOREIGN  POLICY  ISSUES  NOT  THE  MOST   IMPORTANT  PROBLEMS  FACING  THE  U.S.   3 July  7-­‐10,   2014   Immigra.on/Illegal  aliens   17%   Dissa.sfac.on  with  government   16%   Economy  in  general   15%   Unemployment  /  Jobs   14%   Healthcare   8%   Federal  budget  deficit   6%   Educa.on   5%   Ethics/Moral/Religious  decline   4%   July  7-­‐10,   2014   Foreign  aid  /  focus  overseas   3%   Lack  of  military  defense   1%   Interna.onal  issues,  problems   1%   Terrorism   1%   Wars/War  (nonspecific)/Fear  of  war   1%   Na.onal  security   1%   War/conflict  between  Middle  East   na.ons   1%   Situa.on/War  in  Afghanistan   1%   Situa.on  in  Iraq   *   Situa.on  in  Syria     *   What  do  you  think  is  the  most  important  problem  facing  this  country  today?     Source:  Gallup  Poll,  July  7  -­‐  10,  2014   *  Indicates  a  number  between  0  and  1%  
  • 5. OBAMA’S  JOB  APPROVAL  ON  FOREIGN  POLICY   CONTINUES  TO  SLIDE   4   Source:  Pollster.com  Aggregate  Data,  Latest  Poll    as  of  August  11,  2014     APPROVAL   %   Overall  approval   43%   Healthcare   41%   The  economy   39%   Foreign  policy   36%   Job  Approval  on   Foreign  Policy   worse  than   Economy    and   Healthcare   Disapprove  53.3%   Approve  35.6%   Job  Approval  on  Foreign  Policy  
  • 6. FOREIGN  POLICY  NO  LONGER  THE  PRESIDENT’S   BIGGEST  STRENGTH   5   56%   54%   48%   46%   46%   47%   48%   50%   49%   40%   40%   36%   Feb  2009   Aug  2009   Feb  2010   Aug  2010   Feb  2011   Aug  2011   Feb  2012   Aug  2012   Feb  2013   Aug  2013   Feb  2014   Aug  2014   Economy   Health  Care   Overall   Foreign  Policy   Job  Approval  on  Foreign  Policy   was  his  biggest  strength;  Now  it   is  his  lowest  ra.ng   Source:  Pollster.com  Aggregate  Data,  Latest  Poll    as  of  August  6,  2014     -­‐14%   Job  Approval  on…  
  • 7. AND  A  MAJORITY  OF  AMERICANS  DISSATISFIED   WITH  AMERICA’S  ROLE  IN  THE  WORLD   6   Very  sa.sfied,   6%   Somewhat   sa.sfied,  29%   Somewhat   dissa.sfied,  33%   Very  dissa.sfied,   29%   Not  sure,  3%   I’d  like  to  get  your  opinion  about  how  things  are  going  in  some  areas  of  our  society   today…  When  it  comes  to  America’s  role  in  the  world  are  you  very  sa.sfied,  somewhat   sa.sfied,  somewhat  dissa.sfied,  or  very  dissa.sfied  with  how  things  are  going  today?   62% are dissatisfied with America’s role in the world Source:  NBC  News/Wall  Street  Journal  Survey,  July  30  –  August  3,  2014    
  • 9. THE  CONFLICT  BETWEEN  ISRAEL  AND  HAMAS  IS   IMPORTANT  TO  A  MAJORITY  OF  AMERICANS  AND   THEY  DISAPPROVE  OF  HOW  THE  PRESIDENT  IS   HANDLING  IT   8   Source:  AP-­‐GfK  Poll,  July  24-­‐28,  2014   42%   28%   29%   Extremely/Very   important   Moderately   Important   Slightly/Not  at  all   important   How  important  are  each  of  the  following   issues  to  you  personally?  [The  conflict   between  Israel  and  Hamas]   Overall,  do  you  approve,  disapprove,  or   neither  approve  nor  disapprove  of  the  way   Barak  Obama  is  handling  [The  conflict   between  Israel  and  Hamas]   Approve   18%   Lean  toward   approving   19%   Don't  lean   either  way   2%   Lean  toward   disapproving   19%   Disapprove   41%  
  • 10. HALF  OF  AMERICANS  SYMPATHIZE  WITH  ISRAEL   OVER  THE  PALESTINIANS     9   Source:  Pew  Research  Center  Poll,  July  8  –  14,  2014   51%   14%   3%   15%   Israel   Pales.nians   Both   Neither   In  the  dispute  between  Israel  and  the  Pales.nians,  which  side  do  you  sympathize   with  more:  Israel  or  the  Pales.nians?   *Unsure/Refused  not  shown.  
  • 11. HOWEVER,  A  MAJORITY  OF  AMERICANS  THINK   THAT  WE  SHOULD  TREAT  BOTH  SIDES  EQUALLY   10   When  it  comes  to  the  conflict  between  the  Israelis  and  the  Pales.nians,  do  you  think   that  the  United  States  should  support  the  Israelis  more  than  the  Pales.nians,   support  the  Pales.nians  more  than  the  Israelis,  or  should  the  U.S.  treat  Israelis  and   the  Pales.nians  the  same  and  not  support  one  more  than  the  other?   Favor  Israelis   over   Pales.nians   34%   Favor   Pales.nians   over  Israelis   4%   Treat  Israelis   and  the   Pales.nians   the  same     53%   Not  sure   9%   Source:  NBC  News/Wall  Street  Journal  Survey,  July  30  –  August  3,  2014    
  • 12. THIS  YEAR,  FAVORABILITY  OF  ISRAEL  HAS  REACHED   BOTH  ITS  PEAK  AND  ITS  LOWEST  POINT  IN  5  YRS.   11   Source:  CNN/ORC  Poll,  July  18  –  20,  2014   69%   67%   65%   72%   60%   30%   32%   33%   24%   38%   Apr  2009   Jun  2010   May  2011   Jan  2014   Jul  2014   Favorable   Unfavorable   Next,  I’d  like  your  overall  opinion  of  some  foreign  countries.  Is  your  overall  opinion  of   each  of  the  following  very  favorable,  mostly  favorable,  mostly  unfavorable,  or  very   unfavorable?  [ISRAEL]   *”Unsure”  not  shown.  
  • 13. A  PLURALITY  BLAMES  HAMAS,  BUT  MORE  BLAME   ISRAEL  OR  BOTH  THAN  IN  PAST  CONFLICTS     12   Source:  Pew  Research  Center  Poll,  July  24  –  27,  2014   12%   12%   19%   42%   41%   40%   6%   5%   14%   2006   2009   2014   Israel   Hamas/Hezbollah   Both   Over  the  past  few  weeks  there  has  been  a  significant  military  conflict  between  Israel  and   Hamas  in  the  Gaza  Strip.  Who  do  you  think  is  most  responsible  for  the  current  violence?   +7   +9   *Unsure/Refused  not  shown.  
  • 14. OF  THOSE  WHO  HAVE  AN  OPINION,  MORE  ARE   DISSATISFIED  WITH  HOW  THE  U.S.  IS  DEALING   WITH  THE  CONFLICT   13   When  it  comes  to  how  the  United  States  is  dealing  with  the  conflict  between  Hamas   and  Israel  are  you  sa.sfied  or  dissa.sfied  with  our  ac.ons  or  do  you  not  know  enough   to  have  an  opinion  one  way  or  the  other?  [IF  DISSATISFIED]  And  is  this  because  the   United  States  has  gopen  too  involved  or  not  involved  enough?   Sa.sfied   17%   Don't  know   enough  to     have  an  opinion   35%   Not  sure   3%   Dissa.sfied,  too   involved   Dissa.sfied,  not   involved  enough   Dissa.sfied   45%   Source:  NBC  News/Wall  Street  Journal  Survey,  July  30  –  August  3,  2014     17%   28%  
  • 15. ULTIMATELY,  A  MAJORITY  OF  AMERICANS   DO  NOT  THINK  THERE  WILL  BE  A  LASTING   PEACE  AGREEMENT     14   Source:  NBC  News/Wall  Street  Journal/Marist  Poll  July  28  –  31,  2014   Do  you  believe  that  the  Israelis  and  Pales.nians  will  or  will  not  be  able  to  form  a   las.ng  peace  agreement  that  will  work?   Will   23%   Wil  not   62%   Unsure   15%  
  • 16. 15   RUSSIA  AND  UKRAINE    
  • 17. THREE  IN  FOUR  AMERICANS  FEEL  THAT  WHAT   HAPPENS  BETWEEN  RUSSIA  AND  UKRAINE  IS   VERY  IMPORTANT   16   Source:  Pew  Research  Center  Poll,  July  24  –  27,  2014   31%   36%   16%   13%   48%   35%   8%   5%   Very  important   Somewhat  important   Not  too  important   Not  at  all  important   April   July   How  important  to  the  interests  of  the  United  States  is  what  happens  between   Russia  and  Ukraine?   +17   83%  of  Americans  think  that   it  is  important  to  the  interests   of  the  U.S.   *Unsure/Refused  not  shown.  
  • 18. HOWEVER,  A  PLURALITY  IS  DISSATISFIED  WITH   HOW  THE  U.S.  IS  DEALING  WITH  THE  SITUATION   17   When  it  comes  to  how  the  United  States  is  dealing  with  the  conflict  between  Russia   and  the  Ukraine  are  you  sa.sfied  or  dissa.sfied  with  our  ac.ons  or  do  you  not  know   enough  to  have  an  opinion  one  way  or  the  other?  [IF  DISSATISFIED]  And  is  that  because   the  United  States  has  gopen  too  involved  or  not  involved  enough?   Sa.sfied   23%   Don't  know   enough  to     have  an  opinion   32%   Not  sure   2%   Dissa.sfied,  too   involved   Dissa.sfied,  not   involved  enough   Dissa.sfied     43%   Source:  NBC  News/Wall  Street  Journal  Survey,  July  30  –  August  3,  2014     15%   28%  
  • 19. HALF  OF  AMERICANS  THINK  THE  SANCTIONS   ARE  NOT  STRONG  ENOUGH   18   Do  you  think  the  sanc.ons  the  United  States  has  imposed  in  response  to  Russia’s   annexa.on  of  Crimea  have  been:   Too  strong   5%   About  right   38%   Not  strong   enough   53%   Refused   5%   Source:  AP-­‐GfK  Poll,  July  24-­‐28,  2014  
  • 20. AND  HALF  OF  AMERICANS  SUPPORT   EXPANDING  ECONOMIC  SANCTIONS   19   Given  Russia’s  annexa.on  of  Crimea  and  con.nued  support  of  the  Ukrainian  separa.st   movement,  would  you  support,  oppose  or  neither  support  nor  oppose  the  U.S.  taking   each  of  the  following  ac.ons:   Support   Neither   Oppose   Expanding  sanc.ons  against  Russia  so  that   they  target  the  Russian  economy,  including   its  energy  businesses   52%   34%   11%   Providing  military  support  to  na.ons  if  they   are  targeted  by  Russia   21%   41%   35%   Providing  financial  support  to  na.ons  if  they   are  targeted  by  Russia   21%   42%   33%   *Answers  for  Refused/Not   answered  not  shown.   Source:  AP-­‐GfK  Poll,  July  24-­‐28,  2014  
  • 21. NEARLY  HALF  OF  AMERICANS  SEE  RUSSIA  AS  A   SERIOUS  PROBLEM;  ONE  QUARTER  SEES   RUSSIA  AS  AN  ADVERSARY   20   Source:  Pew  Research  Center  Poll,  July  24  –  27,  2014   All  things  considered,  which  of  these  descrip.ons  comes  closest  to  your  view   of  Russia  today.  Do  you  think  Russia  is:   18%   15%   18%   26%   26%   48%   32%   36%   43%   49%   28%   42%   40%   22%   15%   Sept  2008    Oct  2009   Oct  2013   Mar  2014   Jul  2014   An  adversary   A  serious  problem   but  not  an   adversary     Not  much  of  a   problem   *Unsure/Refused  not  shown.  
  • 22. MOST  AMERICANS  THINK  THE  CRASH  WAS  LIKELY   CAUSED  BY  A  SEPARATIST  GROUP  IN  UKRAINE   21   Based  on  what  you  have  read  or  heard,  do  you  think  it  is  very  likely,  somewhat  likely,   somewhat  unlikely  or  very  unlikely  that  the  missile  that  caused  the  airplane  crash  was   launched  by  a  separa.st  group  in  Ukraine?   Very  likely   56%   Somewhat   likely   24%   Somewhat   unlikely   6%   Very  unlikely   8%   No     Opinion   7%   80%  think  that  it   was  likely  caused  by  a   separa.st  group   Source:  CNN/ORC  Poll,  July  18-­‐20,  2014  
  • 23. AND  HALF  OF  AMERICANS  THINK  THAT  RUSSIA  IS   INDIRECTLY  RESPONSIBLE  FOR  THE  CRASH     22   Just  your  best  guess  –  based  on  what  you  have  read  or  heard,  do  you  think  Russia  is   directly  responsible  for  the  crash  of  the  airplane,  indirectly  responsible,  or  not   responsible  at  all?   34%   51%   11%   Directly  responsible   Indirectly  responsible   Not  responsible  at  all   Source:  CNN/ORC  Poll,  July  18-­‐20,  2014   *No  opinion  not  shown  
  • 24. A  PLURALITY  OF  AMERICANS  ARE   DISSATISFIED  WITH  THE  U.S.’S  ACTIONS  IN   DEALING  WITH  THE  CRASH   23   When  it  comes  to  how  the  United  States  is  dealing  with  the  commercial  airline  shot   down  in  Ukraine  are  you  sa.sfied  or  dissa.sfied  with  our  ac.ons  or  do  you  not  know   enough  to  have  an  opinion  one  way  or  the  other?  [IF  DISSATISFIED]  And  is  that  because   the  United  States  has  gopen  too  involved  or  not  involved  enough?   Sa.sfied   26%   Don't  know   enough  to     have  an  opinion   33%   Not  sure   4%   Dissa.sfied,  too   involved   Dissa.sfied,  not   involved  enough   Dissa.sfied     37%   Source:  NBC  News/Wall  Street  Journal  Survey,  July  30  –  August  3,  2014     7%   30%  
  • 25. IF  RUSSIA  IS  SHOWN  TO  BE  RESPONSIBLE  -­‐   MOST  AMERICANS  THINK  THAT  THE  U.S.   SHOULD  RESPOND  WITH  SANCTIONS     24   If  there  is  clear  evidence  that  Russia  is  responsible  for  the  airplane  crash,  what  do  you   think  the  United  States  should  do  in  response:   19%   71%   9%   No  ac.on   Sanc.ons   Military  Ac.on   Source:  CNN/ORC  Poll,  July  18-­‐20,  2014   *No  opinion  not  shown.  
  • 26. 25   IRAQ     25  
  • 27. A  MAJORITY  OF  AMERICANS  CONTINUES  TO   BELIEVE  THAT  THE  WAR  IN  IRAQ  WAS  A  MISTAKE   26   Source:  Quinnipiac  University  Poll,  June  24-­‐30,  2014   39%   37%   35%   38%   33%   36%   36%   36%   32%   55%   57%   59%   55%   62%   58%   60%   60%   61%   Apr  2007   Jun  2007   Aug  2007   Oct  2007   May  2008   Nov  2008   Feb  2009   Oct  2011   Jun  2014   Wrong  thing   Right  thing   Do  you  think  going  to  war  with  Iraq  in  2003  was  the  right  thing  for  the  United   States  to  do  or  the  wrong  thing?   *Unsure/No  Answer  not  shown.  
  • 28. AND  A  MAJORITY  THINKS  HISTORY  WILL   JUDGE  THE  WAR  IN  IRAQ  AS  A  FAILURE   27   Source:  AP-­‐GfK  Poll,  July  24-­‐28,  2014     Just  your  best  guess,  how  do  you  think   history  will  judge  the  war  in  Iraq?   78%  think  it  will  be  judged  a  failure   1%   18%   55%   23%   Complete  Success   More  of  a  success   than  a  failure   More  of  a  failure  than   a  success   Complete  failure   *Refused/Not  Answered  not  shown.  
  • 29. MOST  AMERICANS  THINK  IT  WAS  THE  RIGHT   DECISION  TO  WITHDRAW  TROOPS  FROM  IRAQ   28   Source:  AP-­‐GfK  Poll,  July  24-­‐28,  2014     Overall,  do  you  think  the  United  States  did  the  right  thing  or  the  wrong  thing  by   withdrawing  most  of  its  troops  from  Iraq  in  2011?   Right  thing   70%   Wrong   thing   27%   Refused   3%  
  • 30. A  MAJORITY  OF  AMERICANS  THINK  THAT   GETTING  INVOLVED  IN  THE  CURRENT  CONFLICT   IS  NOT  IN  THE  NATIONAL  INTEREST   29   Source:  Quinnipiac  University  Poll,  June  24-­‐30,  2014   56%   39%   Not  in  the  na.onal  interest   In  the  na.onal  interest   Do  you  think  it  is  in  the  na.onal  interest  of  the  United  States  to  be  involved  in   the  conflict  in  Iraq,  or  not?   *Unsure/No  answer  not  shown.  
  • 31. THEREFORE,  A  MAJORITY  OF  AMERICANS  OPPOSE   SENDING  GROUND  TROOPS  BACK  INTO  IRAQ   30   Source:  Quinnipiac  University  Poll,  June  24-­‐30,  2014   Support   29%   Oppose   63%   Unsure   8%   Do  you  support  or  oppose  the  U.S.  sending  ground  troops  back  into  Iraq  to   help  the  Iraqi  government  defeat  Islamic  militants?    
  • 32. HOWEVER,  A  PLURALITY  OF  AMERICANS  ARE   DISSATISFIED  WITH  HOW  THE  U.S.  IS  HANDLING   THE  RISE  OF  ISIS   31   When  it  comes  to  how  the  United  States  is  dealing  with  the  rise  of  the  terrorists  group  Isis   in  Iraq  are  you  sa.sfied  or  dissa.sfied  with  our  ac.ons  or  do  you  not  know  enough  to  have   an  opinion  one  way  or  the  other?  [IF  DISSATISFIED]  And  is  this  because  the  United  States   has  gopen  too  involved  or  not  involved  enough?   Sa.sfied   14%   Don't  know   enough  to  have    an  opinion   40%   Not  sure   4%   Dissa.sfied,  too   involved   Dissa.sfied,  not   involved  enough   Dissa.sfied     42%   Source:  NBC  News/WallStreet  Journal  Survey,  July  30  –  August  3,  2014     12%   30%  
  • 33. AND  AMERICANS  ARE  DIVIDED  ON  AIR  STRIKES   AGAINST  THE  SUNNI  INSURGENTS   32   45%   46%   8%   Support   Oppose   No  opinion   Overall,  do  you  support  or  oppose  U.S.  airstrikes  against  the  Sunni  insurgents  in  Iraq?   Source:  ABC  News/Washington  Post  Poll,  June  18-­‐22,  2014    
  • 34. MOST  AMERICANS  DO  NOT  THINK  THAT  A   DEMOCRATIC  GOVERNMENT  WILL  BE  ESTABLISHED   33   Source:  AP-­‐GfK  Poll,  July  24-­‐28,  2014     Very/ somewhat   likely     16%   Not  too/not  at   all  likely   80%   Refused/Not   Answered   3%   How  likely  is  it  that  a  stable,  democra.c  government  will  be  established  in  Iraq?  
  • 36. A  MAJORITY  THINKS  THE  SITUATION  IN  AFGHANISTAN   IS  IMPORTANT  AND  DISAPPROVES  OF  HOW  THE   PRESIDENT  IS  HANDLING  IT   35   Source:  AP-­‐GfK  Poll,  July  24-­‐28,  2014   40%   31%   28%   Extremely/Very   Important   Moderately   Important   Slightly/Not   Important   How  important  are  each  of  the  following   issues  to  you  personally?  [The  Situa.on  in   Afghanistan]   Approve   22%   Lean  toward   approving   15%   Don't  lean   either  way   2%   Lean   towards   disapproving   15%   Disapprove   45%   Overall,  do  you  approve,  disapprove,  or   neither  approve  nor  disapprove  of  the  way   Barak  Obama  is  handling  [The  Situa.on  in   Afghanistan]  
  • 37. MOST  AMERICANS  THINK  HISTORY  WILL     REMEMBER  THE  AFGHAN  WAR  AS  A  FAILURE   36   Source:  AP-­‐GfK  Poll,  July  24-­‐28,  2014   2%   21%   51%   23%   Complete  success   More  of  a  successs   than  failure   More  of  a  failure   than  success   Complete  failure   Just  your  best  guess,  how  do  you  think  history  will  judge  the  war  in  Afghanistan?   74%   *Refused/Not  Answered  not  shown.  
  • 38. AND  MOST  AMERICANS  SAY  THE  U.S.  DID  THE   RIGHT  THING  BY  PLANNING  TO  WITHDRAW   37   Source:  AP-­‐GfK  Poll,  July  24-­‐28,  2014   Right  thing   70%   Wrong   thing   26%   Refused   4%   Overall,  do  you  think  the  United  States  is  doing  the  right  thing  or  the  wrong   thing  by  planning  to  withdraw  most  of  its  troops  from  Afghanistan  in  2014?  
  • 39. HOWEVER,  HALF  OF  AMERICANS  NOW  THINK  THE   SITUATION  IN  AFGHANISTAN  WILL  GET  WORSE   38   Source:  AP-­‐GfK  Poll,  July  24-­‐28,  2014   31%   19%   22%   16%   11%   23%   29%   31%   32%   50%   44%   49%   46%   51%   37%   Dec  2009   Aug  2010   Sept  2010   Dec  2013   Jul  2014   Get  beSer   Over  the  next  year,  do  you  expect  the  situa.on  in  Afghanistan  to:   Get  worse   Stay  about   the  same   +18   *Refused/Not  Answered  not  shown.  
  • 40. AND  ULTIMATELY,  MOST  AMERICANS  THINK   THAT  IT  IS  NOT  LIKELY  THAT  A  DEMOCRATIC   GOVERNMENT  WILL  BE  ESTABLISHED   39   Source:  AP-­‐GfK  Poll,  July  24-­‐28,  2014     Very  likely   2%   Somewhat  likely   18%   Not  too  likely   50%   Not  at  all  likely   28%   Refused/Not   answered   2%   How  likely  is  it  that  a  stable,  democra.c  government  will  be  established  in  Afghanistan?   78%  say  it  is  not   too  or  not  at  all  likely   that  a  stable   democra.c   government  will  be   established  
  • 41. 40 GPG  Research     GPG  has  a  full-­‐scale  internal  research  team  offering  the  full  complement  of  qualita.ve  and   quan.ta.ve  public  opinion  research  services.    We  use  research  to  inform  message   development  and  communica.on  strategy,  as  well  as  to  help  clients  assess  and  monitor   cri.cal  issues  and  track  the  effec.veness  of  strategic  communica.on  campaigns.     GPG  has  a  deep  experience  conduc.ng  research  about  complex  interna.onal  affairs  topics   with  diverse  audiences.  We  go  beyond  the  standard  Q&A,  using  innova.ve,  projec.ve   techniques  to  uncover  key  insights.  The  result  is  ac.onable  research  that  helps  shape  our   clients’  messaging  and  strategy.     For  more  informaUon  about  this  presentaUon  or  to  find  out  more   about  GPG’s  research  capabiliUes  contact:               Jason  Boxt  (Jboxt@gpgdc.com)