3. Introduction
• Find your partner 1. What is your name?
• Introduce your partners to the 2. What is your place of
class employment? How long have
you been with your companies?
What are the areas of your
responsibility?
3. What is your expectations of the
course? What is one question
that you hope to get answered
during the class?
4. Tell us one fun thing that you
like to do on weekend?
4. Administrative Tasks
• Hours
• Locations
• Emergency Phone
• Parking Lot
• Smoking Policy
• Attendance List
• Name Tents
• Training Manuals
5. Training Agenda – Day 1
09:00 – 10:30 Module 1: Introduction to sales forecasting
10:30 – 10:45 Break
10:45 – 12:00 Module 2: Indicators Affecting Sales
Forecasting
12:00 – 1:15 Lunch
13:15 – 14:30 Module 3: Moving Average Forecasting
Techniques
14:30 – 14:45 Break
14:45 – 15:30 Module 4: Linear Regression Forecasting
Techniques
15:30 – 16:00 Day One Wrap Up and Preview Day Two
6. Training Agenda – Day 2
09:00 – 10:30 Module 5: Multiple Regression Forecasting
Techniques
10:30 – 10:45 Break
10:45 – 12:00 Module 6: One Way Anova Forecasting
Techniques
12:00 – 13:15 Lunch
13:15 – 14:30 Module 6: Two Way Anova Forecasting
Techniques
14:30 – 14:45 Break
14:45 – 15:30 Module 7: Forecasting as a Strategic Business
Tools
15:30 – 16:00 Course Summary and Wrap Up
7. What is Forecasting?
• Process of predicting a future event
• Underlying basis of all business decisions
– Production
– Inventory
– Personnel
– Facilities
4-7
11. Strategy and Issues During a
Product’s Life
Introduction Growth Maturity Decline
Best period to Practical to change Poor time to change Cost control
increase market price or quality image, price, or quality critical
share image
Company Strategy/Issues
Competitive costs
R&D product Strengthen niche become critical
engineering critical
Defend market position
Drive-thru Fax
restaurants machines 3 1/2”
CD- Floppy
disks
Sales ROM
Station
Internet wagons
Color copiers
HDTV
Product design and Forecasting critical Standardization Little product
development critical Product and process Less rapid product differentiation
OM Strategy/Issues
reliability changes - more minor
Frequent product and changes Cost minimization
process design Competitive product
changes improvements and Optimum capacity Over capacity in the
options Increasing stability of industry
Short production runs process
Increase capacity Prune line to
High production costs Long production runs
Shift toward product eliminate items not
Limited models focused Product improvement returning good
and cost cutting margin
Attention to quality Enhance distribution
Reduce capacity
15. Sales over 4 Years with Trend and
Seasonality
Seasonal peaks Trend component
Sales for product or service
Actual
demand line
Average demand
over four years
Random
variation
Year Year Year Year
1 2 3 4
4-15
16. Actual Demand, Moving Average,
Weighted Moving Average
Weighted moving average
Actual sales
Moving average
4-16
17. Realities of Forecasting
• Forecasts are seldom perfect
• Most forecasting methods assume that
there is some underlying stability in the
system
• Both product family and aggregated
product forecasts are more accurate than
individual product forecasts
4-17
21. Sales Force Composite
• Each salesperson projects their sales
• Combined at district & national levels
• Sales rep’s know customers’ wants
• Tends to be overly optimistic
4-21
22. Delphi Method
• Iterative group process
• 3 types of people
– Decision makers
– Staff
– Respondents
• Reduces ‘group-think’
4-22
23. Consumer Market Survey
• Ask customers about purchasing plans
• What consumers say, and what they actually
do are often different
• Sometimes difficult to answer
4-23
25. What is a Time Series?
• Set of evenly spaced numerical data
– Obtained by observing response variable at
regular time periods
• Forecast based only on past values
– Assumes that factors influencing past and
present will continue influence in future
• Example
Year: 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Sales: 78.7 63.5 89.7 93.2 92.1
4-25
27. Trend Component
• Persistent, overall upward or downward
pattern
• Due to population, technology etc.
• Several years duration
4-27
28. Seasonal Component
• Regular pattern of up & down fluctuations
• Due to weather, customs etc.
• Occurs within 1 year
4-28
29. Cyclical Component
• Repeating up & down movements
• Due to interactions of factors influencing
economy
• Usually 2-10 years duration
4-29
30. Random Component
• Erratic, unsystematic, ‘residual’ fluctuations
• Due to random variation or unforeseen
events
– Union strike
– Tornado
• Short duration &
nonrepeating
4-30
32. General Time Series Models
• Any observed value in a time series is the
product (or sum) of time series
components
• Multiplicative model
– Yi = Ti · Si · Ci · Ri (if quarterly or mo. data)
• Additive model
– Yi = Ti + Si + Ci + Ri (if quarterly or mo. data)
4-32
33. Naive Approach
• Assumes demand in next period is the same as
demand in most recent period
• e.g., If May sales were 48, then June sales will be 48
• Sometimes cost effective & efficient
4-33
36. Moving Average Method
• MA is a series of arithmetic means
• Used if little or no trend
• Used often for smoothing
– Provides overall impression of data over time
• Equation
MA = ∑ Demand in Previous n Periods
n
4-36
37. Moving Average Example
You’re manager that sells beverages. You
want to forecast sales (000) for 2011 using a
3-period moving average.
2006 4
2007 6
2008 5
2009 3
2010 7
4-37
38. Moving Average Solution
Time Response Moving Moving
Yi Total Average
(n=3) (n=3)
2006 4 NA NA
2007 6 NA NA
2008 5 NA NA
2009 3 4+6+5=15 15/3 = 5
2010 7
2011 NA
4-38
39. Moving Average Solution
Time Response Moving Moving
Yi Total Average
(n=3) (n=3)
2006 4 NA NA
2007 6 NA NA
2008 5 NA NA
2009 3 4+6+5=15 15/3 = 5
2010 7 6+5+3=14 14/3=4 2/3
2011 NA
4-39
40. Moving Average Solution
Time Response Moving Moving
Yi Total Average
(n=3) (n=3)
2006 4 NA NA
2007 6 NA NA
2008 5 NA NA
2009 3 4+6+5=15 15/3=5.0
2010 7 6+5+3=14 14/3=4.7
2011 NA 5+3+7=15 15/3=5.0
4-40
42. Weighted Moving Average Method
• Used when trend is present
– Older data usually less important
• Weights based on intuition
– Often lay between 0 & 1, & sum to 1.0
• Equation
Σ(Weight for period n) (Demand in period n)
WMA =
ΣWeights
4-42
43. Actual Demand, Moving Average,
Weighted Moving Average
Weighted moving average
Actual sales
Moving average
48. Disadvantages of
Moving Average Methods
• Increasing n makes forecast less sensitive to
changes
• Do not forecast trend well
• Require much historical data
4-48
49. Exponential Smoothing Method
• Form of weighted moving average
– Weights decline exponentially
– Most recent data weighted most
• Requires smoothing constant (α)
– Ranges from 0 to 1
– Subjectively chosen
• Involves little record keeping of past data
50. Exponential Smoothing Equations
• Ft = αAt - 1 + α(1-α)At - 2 + α(1- α)2·At - 3
+ α(1- α)3At - 4 + ... + α(1- α)t-1·A0
– Ft = Forecast value
– At = Actual value
– α = Smoothing constant
• Ft = Ft-1 + α(At-1 - Ft-1)
– Use for computing forecast
4-50
58. Multiplicative Seasonal Model
• Find average historical demand for each “season” by
summing the demand for that season in each year, and
dividing by the number of years for which you have data.
• Compute the average demand over all seasons by dividing
the total average annual demand by the number of seasons.
• Compute a seasonal index by dividing that season’s historical
demand (from step 1) by the average demand over all
seasons.
• Estimate next year’s total demand
• Divide this estimate of total demand by the number of
seasons, then multiply it by the seasonal index for that
season. This provides the seasonal forecast.
60. Linear Regression Model
• Shows linear relationship between dependent
& explanatory variables
– Example: Sales & advertising (not time)
Y-intercept Slope
^
Yi = a + b Xi
Dependent Independent
(response) variable (explanatory)
variable
65. Linear Regression Model
Y Yi = a +b Xi +Error
Error
Regression line
^ =a +b X
Yi i
X
Observed
value
4-65
66. Interpretation of Coefficients
• Slope (b)
– Estimated Y changes by b for each 1 unit
increase in X
• If b = 2, then sales (Y) is expected to increase by 2
for each 1 unit increase in advertising (X)
• Y-intercept (a)
– Average value of Y when X = 0
• If a = 4, then average sales (Y) is expected to be 4
when advertising (X) is 0
4-66
67. Random Error Variation
• Variation of actual Y from predicted Y
• Measured by standard error of estimate
– Sample standard deviation of errors
– Denoted SY,X
• Affects several factors
– Parameter significance
– Prediction accuracy
4-67
68. Least Squares Assumptions
• Relationship is assumed to be linear. Plot
the data first - if curve appears to be
present, use curvilinear analysis.
• Relationship is assumed to hold only within
or slightly outside data range. Do not
attempt to predict time periods far beyond
the range of the data base.
• Deviations around least squares line are
assumed to be random.
4-68
69. Standard Error of the Estimate
n
∑ ( yi − yi ) 2
ˆ
S y,x = i =1 Text uses
n−2 symbol Yc
n 2 n n
∑ yi −a ∑ yi − b ∑ x i yi
= i =1 i =1 i =1
n−2
4-69
70. Correlation
• Answers: ‘how strong is the linear
relationship between the variables?’
• Coefficient of correlation Sample correlation
coefficient denoted r
– Values range from -1 to +1
– Measures degree of association
• Used mainly for understanding
4-70
83. Sample Coefficient of Correlation
n n n
n ∑ x i yi − ∑ x i ∑ yi
r= i =1 i =1 i =1
n 2 n 2 n 2 n 2
n ∑ x i − ∑ x i n ∑ y i − ∑ y i
i =1 i =1 i =1 i =1
4-83
84. Coefficient of Correlation Values
Perfect Perfect
Negative No Positive
Correlation Correlation Correlati
on
-1.0 -.5 0 +.5 +1.
0
Increasing degree of Increasing degree of
negative correlation positive correlation
4-84
85. Guidelines for Selecting
Forecasting Model
• You want to achieve:
– No pattern or direction in forecast error
^
• Error = (Yi - Yi) = (Actual - Forecast)
• Seen in plots of errors over time
– Smallest forecast error
• Mean square error (MSE)
• Mean absolute deviation (MAD)
4-85
86. Pattern of Forecast Error
Trend Not Fully
Accounted for
Desired Pattern
Error Error
0 0
Time (Years) Time (Years)
4-86
91. Summary Out
Anova: Single Factor
SUMMARY
Groups Count Sum Average Variance
Front 5 45 9 2.5
Back 4 56 14 3.333333
Middle 3 33 11 1
ANOVA
Source of Variation SS df MS F P-value F crit
Between Groups 55.66667 2 27.83333 11.38636 0.003426 4.256495
Within Groups 22 9 2.444444
Total 77.66667 11
96. Any Question?
• The unique challenges associated with
providing effective customer service to
phone callers.
• Identify the strengths and weaknesses of
your telephone styles and techniques.
• Identify effective telephone skills
98. Learning Objectives
• Identify methods for diffusing customer anger
or hostility
• Develop strategies for handling difficult
customers
• Identify which verbal and non-verbal
messages exacerbate a difficult situation and
which diffuse a difficult situation
99. Strategies to Handle Difficult
Customer Situation
1. Listen
– Use active and reflective listening
skills
2. Empathize
– Putting yourself in customer shoes
– Connect with persons feeling
• making a statement that tells the person
we understand the feeling
• paraphrasing his or her words to show
the person we understand the issue
– Stick to what Company can and
can’t do
100. Strategies to handle Difficult
Customer Situation
3. Respond professionally
– Use customer’s name
– Maintain friendly manner
– Use appropriate body
language
4. Recognize underlying
factors
– Customer act for a reason
– Negative emotion
101. Strategies to Handle Difficult
Customer Situation
5. Ask question
– Be sure to listen to everything
6. Give feedback
– Treat the public as customer
seeking service
– Play tour tone of voice
7. Summarize
– Communicate what you will
do and when you will do it
– Remember to under promise
and over deliver
102. Limited English Speaking
• Be patient and concentrate
– Remember, the customer is just as frustrated as you are
• Speak slowly and distinctly
– Don’t speak so slowly that it appears to be an insult
• Be extra courteous
– you really do care and want to help
• Avoid using slang or industry jargon
– Use plain, simple English. Don’t use terms or phrases that will only add
to the confusion
• Speak in normal tone of voice
– Don’t shout. Speaking loudly won’t help
• Don’t try to listen to every word
– Listen carefully for key words and phrases
103. Limited English Speaking
• Reiterate what has been said
– Once the customer has told you what the problem is, summarize
• Don’t ask “do you understand?”
– The customer may feel you are insulting him or her.
• Avoid humor
– Stick to the problem. Different cultures view humor in different ways.
• Write it down
– Use simple, short sentences.
• If you speak another language, try using it
– The client may understand the other language better than English
• Develop a list of employee who speak foreign languages
– Use this as a resource for helping non-English speaking customers.
• Listen to foreign language tape
104. Tips for Long-Winded Caller
• People will monopolize another’s time on the telephone
– Don’t think silent or giving short answer will work
– don’t ask questions
– Refocus the attention
• Stating a relevant point
– Using “PRC” technique
• (Paraphrase, Reflect, Close)
– Budget time to listen
• Budget what you can afford—but don’t tell the caller you are doing this
– Establish mutual time limit
• take control of the conversation before it gets too far
– Patience: Give extra minute or two
• Let the other party go gracefully with statements such as:“I know you are busy. I
appreciate your help.” .“Thanks for your time. The information you have provided is very
helpful. I’ll be back in touch as soon as. …”
105. Strategies to Handle
Argumentative Customer
• Speak softly
– the customer must be quiet in order to hear
you.
• Ask for their opinion
– If you give them some control by asking a
question, they are liable to ease up.
• Take a break, don’t get drawn in
– excuse yourself briefly, count to 10, or get a
drink of water
• Concentrate on the points of the
argument
– Deal with these points one at a time.
106. Strategies to Handle Verbally
Abusive Customer
• Remember, Customer isn’t angry with you
– but at the agency, the situation, or something
else completely unrelated
• Talk quietly
– talk quietly so that he or she has to be quieter
to hear you.
• Talk at normal pace
– If you begin to talk quickly, it will only make
matters worse
• Let the consumer know the consequences
– When you use this language, it makes it
impossible for me or anyone to assist you.
107. Strategies to Handle Threatening
Customer
• Threat can be an attempt to
intimidate you
• Keep calm and keep your
responses focused on the
issue at hand
108. Strategies to Handle Threatening
Customer
• Try to avoid getting into discussion of the threat
– Lead the conversation back to the fundamental issue in
dispute
• Evaluate customer ability to make good on threat
and decide what to do from there
– Don’t overreact
– Look for signs of drug or alcohol use
• Advice consumer of the repercussion
– Before the threats escalate, calmly advise the customer of
the repercussions of the threats,
• Terminate the interview
– document the threat, warn/alert the appropriate people
(supervisor, reception staff, etc.)
109. Strategies to Handle Hostile/Angry
Customer
1. An angry customer is most • Don’t
likely not angry with you – Take the anger personally
– Blame the customer
– Avoid blame
– Dominate the conversation
110. Strategies to Handle Hostile/Angry
Customer
2. Detach yourself from the
Customer’s Hostility
– Maintain self control
3. Hostility curve
– Let’s wait, hear him/her out
111. Strategies to Handle Hostile/Angry
• Listen Customer
– When the customer stops talking, start giving feedback to indicate you
heard his or her key points
• Empathize
– you understand the situation from the customer’s perspective. Express
empathy for the feelings expressed or demonstrated.
• Apologize
– Apologize when the agency is at fault
• Service
– S =Say you’re sorry. E = Expedite solutions. R = Respond to the customer. V = Victory to
the customer. I = Implement improvements. C = Communicate results. E = Extend the
outcome.
• Summarize
– Clearly communicate what you will do and when you will do it
112. Saying “No”
• Sometimes you have to say no, but if you do it right, you can
still get a “thank you” for your service
113. Saying “No”
• Explain why it cant be done
• Don’t quote policy
– Don’t say, “Because it’s the law.”
• Don’t be patronizing
– Don’t talk down to the customer.
• Offer alternatives when u can
– Try to help the customer find
solutions to the problem.
• Avoid making excuses
– “I’m sorry your case hasn’t been
processed yet
• Eliminate negative phrases
• Don’t mention other/similar
complaints
Introduce yourself, including your background and training experience. Tell participants how long you have been a trainer. Identify the types of training you have done. Describe any work experiences you have had that relate to this training. Relate an interesting/humorous training experience (this helps to relax participants). Refer participants to the questions listed on the next page. Ask participants to form pairs and conduct five-minute interviews with each other. Participants may write the information on the Training Notes page or on a separate piece of paper. At the end of the interviews, each participant should introduce his/her partner to the class using the information obtained in the interview. Use the flipchart to list participants’ expectations of the course. Tape flipchart pages on the walls. (If some participants state expectations that are not part of this course, refer them to other resources.) As appropriate, affirm that it sounds like they are here for all the right reasons. Display PowerPoint Slide 1-2: Introductions .
Participants will complete a warm-up exercise to become familiar with each other and the trainer. Participant introductions will be conducted as part of this exercise. Team up with an individual you do not know. Take turns asking each other the following questions. It should take approximately five minutes for each set of questions. After you have interviewed each other, you will introduce your partner to the large group. Questions: What is your name? What is your place of employment? How long you have been with Child Support Enforcement and what are your areas of responsibility? What are your expectations of the course? What is one question that you hope to get answered during this class? Tell us one fun thing that you like to do on weekends?
What you need to say/do 1. Display PowerPoint Slide 1-4: Administrative Tasks . 2. Review the training schedule, facility layout, and administrative tasks with participants. 3. Advise participants to be considerate of others and turn off beepers and cell phones. 4. Tell participants that the training manual format in most modules is similar. Ensuring the same “look and feel” from module to module helps the participants to become more familiar and comfortable with the training material. 5. Demonstrate the use of the manual by telling participants to turn to specific page numbers as you describe those sections, modules, and pages.
What you need to say/do Discuss the Training Agenda (on the next page) with participants. Tell participants that the times on the schedule are approximate and intended as a guide. Provide participants with an overview of the objectives for each module as you go over the Training Agenda: Module 1: Introduction : Participants will become familiar with each other and learn course goals and objectives. Module 2: Concepts of High-Quality Customer Service: Participants will identify Child Support Enforcement customers, define effective customer service within the Child Support Enforcement community, identify the most common barriers to providing high-quality customer service and identify and describe the benefits of delivering effective customer service. Module 3: Communication Skills: Participants will identify characteristics of effective listening skills, identify the barriers to active listening, and explain the importance of effective listening in providing high-quality customer service. Module 4: Winning Telephone Techniques : Participants will describe the unique challenges associated with providing effective customer service to telephone callers, and identify the strengths and weaknesses of their telephone styles and techniques. Module 5: Strategies For Handling Difficult Customers: Participants will identify methods for diffusing customer anger or hostility, develop strategies for handling difficult customers, and identify which verbal and nonverbal messages exacerbate a difficult situation and which diffuse a difficult situation. Participants will identify effective barriers, both physical and psychological, which can increase the safety and security of the worker. Module 6: Summary and Wrap–Up: Participants will demonstrate what they have learned in this course.
Module 3: Communication Skills : Identify characteristic of effective Listening skill Identify barrier to active listening Explain the importance of effective listening in providing good cs Module 4: Winning Telephone Techniques Describe the unique challenge for effective cs to callers Identify strength and weaknesses of telephone styles and techniques Module 5: Difficult Customers and Situations Method to diffuse customer anger Develop strategies for handling difficult customer Identify verbal and non verbal massages Identify effective barriers Module 6 : Course Summary and Wrap Up 1. Participants will demonstrate what they have learned in this course
At this point, it may be useful to point out the “time horizons” considered by different industries. For example, some colleges and universities look 30 to fifty years ahead, industries engaged in long distance transportation (steam ship, railroad) or provision of basic power (electrical and gas utilities, etc.) also look far ahead (20 to 100 years). Ask them to give examples of industries having much shorter long-range horizons.
At this point it may be helpful to discuss the actual variables one might wish to forecast in the various time periods.
This slide introduces the impact of product life cycle on forecasting The following slide, reproduced from chapter 2, summarizes the changing issues over the product’s lifetime for those faculty who wish to treat the issue in greater depth.
Introduce yourself, including your background and training experience. Tell participants how long you have been a trainer. Identify the types of training you have done. Describe any work experiences you have had that relate to this training. Relate an interesting/humorous training experience (this helps to relax participants). Refer participants to the questions listed on the next page. Ask participants to form pairs and conduct five-minute interviews with each other. Participants may write the information on the Training Notes page or on a separate piece of paper. At the end of the interviews, each participant should introduce his/her partner to the class using the information obtained in the interview. Use the flipchart to list participants’ expectations of the course. Tape flipchart pages on the walls. (If some participants state expectations that are not part of this course, refer them to other resources.) As appropriate, affirm that it sounds like they are here for all the right reasons. Display PowerPoint Slide 1-2: Introductions .
One can use an example based upon one’s college or university. Students can be asked why each of these forecast types is important to the college. Once they begin to appreciate the importance, one can then begin to discuss the problems. For example, is predicting “demand” merely as simple as predicting the number of students who will graduate from high school next year (i.e., a simple counting exercise)?
A point to be made here is that one requires a forecasting “plan,” not merely the selection of a particular forecasting methodology.
This slide illustrates a typical demand curve. You might ask students why it is important to know more than simply the actual demand over time. Why, for example, would one wish to be able to break out a “seasonality” factor?
This slide illustrates one of the simplest forecasting techniques - the moving average. It may be useful to point out the lag introduced by exponential smoothing - and ask how one can actually make use of the forecast.
This slide provides a framework for discussing some of the inherent difficulties in developing reliable forecasts. You may wish to include in this discussion the difficulties posed by attempting forecast in a continuously, and rapidly changing environment where product life-times are measured less often in years and more often in months than ever before. One might wish to emphasize the inherent difficulties in developing reliable forecasts.
This slide outlines several qualitative methods of forecasting. Ask students to give examples of occasions when each might be appropriate. The next several slides elaborate on these qualitative methods.
Ask your students to consider other potential disadvantages. (Politics?)
You might ask your students to consider what problems might occur when trying to use this method to predict sales of a potential new product.
You might ask your students to consider whether there are special examples where this technique is required. ( Questions of technology transfer or assessment, for example; or other questions where information from many different disciplines is required.)
You might discuss some of the difficulties with this technique. Certainly there is the issue that what consumers say is often not what they do. There are other problems such as that consumers sometime wish to please the surveyor; and for unusual, future, products, consumers may have a very imperfect frame of reference within which to consider the question.
This and subsequent slide frame a discussion on time series - and introduce the various components.
What you need to say/do Remind participants that in Module 1 we talked briefly about how perception, rather than facts and events, shapes a customer’s opinion of the quality of customer service he or she has received. In this module, we will explore the true meaning of high-quality customer service. Display PowerPoint Slide 2-1: Concepts of High-Quality Customer Service .
This slide introduces two general forms of time series model. You might provide examples of when one or the other is most appropriate.
This slide introduces the naïve approach. Subsequent slides introduce other methodologies.
At this point, you might discuss the impact of the number of periods included in the calculation. The more periods you include, the closer you come to the overall average; the fewer, the closer you come to the value in the previous period. What is the tradeoff?
This slide shows the resulting forecast. Students might be asked to comment on the useful ness of this forecast.
This slide introduces the “weighted moving average” method. It is probably most important to discuss choice of the weights.
This slide illustrates one of the simplest forecasting techniques - the moving average. It may be useful to point out the lag introduced by exponential smoothing - and ask how one can actually make use of the forecast.
The learning objectives for this module are: Given a participative lecture, participants will 1. identify characteristics of effective listening skills. 2. Through a group activity and a large group discussion, participants will identify barriers to active listening. 3. Through a group activity and given a participative lecture, participants will explain the importance of effective listening in providing high-quality customer service. 4. Through an individual activity and participative lecture, participants will identify the strengths and weaknesses in their listening styles.
These points should have been brought out in the example, but can be summarized here.
This slide introduces the exponential smoothing method of time series forecasting. The following slide contains the equations, and an example follows.
You may wish to discuss several points: - this is just a moving average wherein every point in included in the forecast, but the weights of the points continuously decrease as they extend further back in time. - the equation actually used to calculate the forecast is convenient for programming on the computer since it requires as data only the actual and forecast values from the previous time point. - we need a formal process and criteria for choosing the “best” smoothing constant.
This slide begins an exponential smoothing example.
This slide illustrates the result of the steps used to make the forecast desired in the example. In the PowerPoint presentation, there are additional slides to illustrate the individual steps.
This slide illustrates graphically the results of the example forecast.
This slide provides a quick view of the development of a multiplicative seasonal model.
What you need to say/do Remind participants that in Module 1 we talked briefly about how perception, rather than facts and events, shapes a customer’s opinion of the quality of customer service he or she has received. In this module, we will explore the true meaning of high-quality customer service. Display PowerPoint Slide 2-1: Concepts of High-Quality Customer Service .
This slide introduces the linear regression model. This can be approached as simply a generalization of the linear trend model where the variable is something other than time and the values do not necessarily occur a t equal intervals.
This slide probably merits discussion - additional to that for the linear trend model. You might make the point here that the dependent and independent variable are not necessarily of the same nature - they need not both be dollars, for example. You might also wish to note that setting x = 0 may not have a useful physical interpretation.
Here you may wish to at least begin the discussion of the distinction between explainable and unexplainable, and random and non-random error variation. There are also slides which come later in the presentation that will refer to this topic.
This slide raises several points: - What does it mean to be “linear”? How does one tell if something is linear or not? Or perhaps, how does one tell if something is sufficiently linear that a linear regression model is appropriate? - If the relationship is assumed to hold only within or slightly outside the data range, how do we use this model to make projections into the future (for which we don’t have data)? - What does it mean for data to be random? How can we tell? You might discuss making scatter plots not only of the original data, but also of the resulting deviations. (Obviously there are more rigorous methods of determining if the deviations are random, but a scatter plot is a good start.)
Again, it is probably useful to point out which elements in the equations represent the actual data values and which the averages of these values.
This slide can frame the start of a discussion of correlation.. You should probably expect to add to this a discussion of cause and effect, emphasizing in particular that correlation does not imply a cause and effect relationship. Ask student to suggest examples of significant correlation of unrelated phenomenon.
What you need to say/do Remind participants that in Module 1 we talked briefly about how perception, rather than facts and events, shapes a customer’s opinion of the quality of customer service he or she has received. In this module, we will explore the true meaning of high-quality customer service. Display PowerPoint Slide 2-1: Concepts of High-Quality Customer Service .
Here again an explanation of each variable is probably useful.
While this slide introduces the implications of negative and positive correlation, it is probably also a good point to re-emphasis the difference between correlation and cause and effect.
This slide introduces overall guideline for selecting a forecasting model. You may also wish to re-emphasize the role of scatter plots, and discuss the role of “understanding what is going on” (especially in limiting one’s choice of model).
This slide illustrates both possible patterns in forecast error, and the merit of making a scatter plot of forecast error.
What you need to say/do Remind participants that in Module 1 we talked briefly about how perception, rather than facts and events, shapes a customer’s opinion of the quality of customer service he or she has received. In this module, we will explore the true meaning of high-quality customer service. Display PowerPoint Slide 2-1: Concepts of High-Quality Customer Service .
What you need to say/do Tell participants to take a few minutes and complete the Assessment Tool. Advise them that this will not be collected. This is purely a tool to determine their strengths and weaknesses in the customer service area. Once participants are done with the tool, let them know that each item is addressed in the various modules we will be covering throughout this course. It is critical to your work to have a self-awareness of the areas on which you need to work as we go through this course. Briefly highlight the following in the Handout 2-1, Customer Service Self-Assessment Tool: Job knowledge. We will talk more about how critical this is in Module 2. Follow-up. If you promise to call within a certain timeframe, do it. We will talk about a concept called “Under-promise, over-deliver” later in this module. A prevalent complaint about the company product is not following through, or not following through, or not following through in the timeframe promised. Customer sensitivity. We will talk about how important it is to focus on what the customer is feeling, and what he may not be saying. Decisiveness. Never, never say, “That’s not my job.” Impact. We will talk in this module, Module 2, and in Module 3 about how much of an impact body language plays in communication. Initiative. “Go the extra mile.” We will talk more about this concept later in this module. Strive to take action beyond what is being called for by the customer.
What you need to say/do In Module 3: Communication Skills , we talked about good communication skills and how to work with barriers to effective communication in person. Now, we will explore the most effective ways to communicate by phone. Tell participants that we will explore how each of us has the ability to make positive—or negative—impressions on the people we talk to on the telephone. In most cases, the impression you give callers influences how they feel about your agency as a whole. To anyone who contacts your agency—in person or by phone— you are the agency . (Write this on a flipchart.) Remind participants that every person they communicate with is a customer and every communication makes an impression. What kind of impression will you make today and every day? Remind participants that if you create a good first impression, the relationship grows from there. Create a bad first impression and your relationship with that customer can be an uphill battle. Many customers will call before ever visiting the company, and what they encounter over the phone is critical to creating a positive image. Display PowerPoint Slide 4-1: Winning Telephone Techniques .
What you need to say/do Display PowerPoint Slides 2-19: Summary & Conclusions . Summarize the key points made in this module. Ask participants if they believe that the goal and objectives of this module have been met. Tell participants that we have now completed Module 2, Concepts of High-Quality Customer Service . Ask if there are any questions. After answering the participants’ questions, transition to Module 3: Communication Skills . What you need to know These were the learning goals and objectives of this module: Given a participative lecture, participants will identify Child Support Enforcement community customers. Through a group activity and in a large group discussion, participants will define effective customer service within the Child Support Enforcement community. Given a participative lecture, participants will identify the most common barriers to providing high-quality customer service. Given a participative lecture, participants will define “self-talk” and provide both positive and negative examples. Through a large group discussion, participants will identify and describe the benefits of delivering effective customer service.
What you need to say/do Display PowerPoint Slide 5-4: Difficult Customer Situations . Tell participants that first we will cover some strategies to use overall with difficult customers and/or situations, and then we will look at some specific examples. Tell participants that in dealing with difficult customers and/or situations, we need to incorporate all that we have discussed in Modules 1 through 4. We will now look at some more specific strategies. Remind participants of our earlier discussions about listening. It is important to take the time to use active listening skills. Discuss the fine line between being empathetic and being a therapist. You cannot solve all problems. Remind participants that we discussed what empathy means earlier: It means putting yourself in the customer’s shoes, letting him or her know that you understand the situation and how the customer feels. Remind participants that it is important not to stray from their area of professional expertise by offering ways to deal with the emotional or other problems that are not directly related to child support. Example : It would not be appropriate to address how to relieve depression, stress, or anxiety that the customer may tell you about or display. Understanding the customer’s concerns is important, but “treating” that feeling or giving advice may be crossing a fine line. Example: Should I sue for custody? Should I keep the kids longer? Should I ask for an increase in support? The agency should stick with what they can do, not with what a customer “should” do. Discuss the issues regarding giving “advice” and emphasize that participants should not offer legal advice. Workers can get into real trouble if the client gets the impression that they have an attorney-client relationship. This is one very good reason to treat the public as customers seeking service, rather than as clients seeking advice and direction. Tell participants that empathetic phrases are simple and easy ways to convey that you understand your customer’s situation. Remember empathy. See the world from your customer’s side of the desk/phone. On a flip chart using the title “Examples of Empathetic Phrases,” list the examples below. What you need to know Some examples of empathetic phrases participants can use: I can see why you feel that way. I see what you mean. That must be very upsetting. I understand how frustrating this must be. I’m sorry about this.
To provide effective customer service—especially in difficult situations—we need to deal with the customer’s emotions first, then the problem. When dealing with difficult customers and situations, it is important to use the following strategies. Listen Use active and reflective listening skills. Empathize Empathy means putting yourself in the customer’s shoes, letting him or her know that you understand not only the situation, but also how the situation makes the customer feel. When we empathize, we connect with the person’s feelings in two ways: (1) by making a statement that tells the person we understand the feeling, and (2) by paraphrasing his or her words to show the person we understand the issue, while not necessarily agreeing with him or her. You can get into trouble if it seems to the client that you are offering legal advice. Stick to what the agency can and can’t do—and let the client seek an attorney if he or she is not sure what he or she should do.
What you need to say/do Display PowerPoint Slide 5-5: Difficult Customer Situations . It is important to be professional when using someone’s name. Never use the customer’s first name, unless advised to do so. In “How to Win Friends and Influence People,” Dale Carnegie wrote, “A man’s name is to him the sweetest and most important sound in any language.” Remembering anyone’s name, for man or woman, is a compliment. This can go a long way toward diffusing anger. Remind participants of our earlier discussions regarding body language. Body language can be a critical factor when one is involved in a difficult situation. It can either exacerbate that situation or create a calming influence. Ask participants if they can name any other negative emotions. Remind participants of the feelings that were evoked when we did the exercise with the Talker, Listener, and Critiquer. One of the feelings evoked may have been hurt at not being listened to. Many people don’t show that they are hurt, but mask it with other emotions such as anger or hostility. Tell participants that the most effective way to handle a negative conflict situation is to listen. Only when people feel that they have been heard will they be ready to hear what we have to say. Tell participants that we need to remember: Customers are not always saints, nor are they always right. But they are always customers and it’s our job to provide courteous and professional service. Remind participants of the listening exercise we completed in Module 3 and how using good listening skills may help with negative emotions. Respond Professionally Don’t take the anger personally. As a professional, recognize that customers may have legitimate concerns buried somewhere in their anger and venting. They may be overreacting, but you need to remain objective, assess the problem, and focus on solutions. Whenever possible, use the customer’s name . This personalizes the conversation and makes it difficult for the customer to attack you. Maintain a friendly manner . Show the customer respect, even in the face of disrespect. Demonstrate no reaction in the face of difficult behavior. Use appropriate body language . Move closer to the customer and maintain eye contact. Listen for the unspoken message. Focus on subtleties in a caller’s voice—inflection, pacing, and the overall tension level. Recognize Underlying Factors Customers may act angry, upset, demanding, impatient, abusive, and threatening for any number of reasons. These behaviors occur as a result of one or more negative feelings that have been aroused in the situation. Negative emotions, such as: I’m frustrated I’m powerless and a victim I’m not important I’m stupid I’m incompetent I’m guilty
Ask questions As you ask the customer questions, be sure to listen to everything he or she says and don’t jump to conclusions. You might miss details that are specific to this customer’s situation. Give feedback Treat the public as customers seeking service, rather than as clients seeking advice and direction. The tone of your voice goes a long way toward helping you convey empathy. If you say all the right words, but deliver them with coldness in your voice, you will sound insincere. Summarize Clearly communicate what you will do and when you will do it. Reach a full understanding of what you will do and what the customer needs to do. Discuss any reasonable future contingencies and what can be done about them. Determine to follow up! Remember to under-promise and over-deliver.
Strategy Be patient and concentrate . Remember, the customer is just as frustrated as you are. If you are patient and concentrate on the conversation, you will be better able to understand what the customer is saying. Speak slowly and distinctly . Don’t speak so slowly that it appears to be an insult, but speak slowly enough that the customer can follow what you are saying. Also, if you speak slowly, the customer will do the same. Be extra courteous . This shows that you really do care and want to help. It allows customers to relax and eases their frustrations. Avoid using slang or industry jargon . Use plain, simple English. Don’t use terms or phrases that will only add to the confusion. Speak in a normal tone of voice . Don’t shout. Speaking loudly won’t help—it will probably only cause more anxiety. And if you speak loudly, the customer will speak loudly. Don’t try to listen to every word . Listen carefully for key words and phrases.
Everyone loves an audience, and, because it’s rare to find someone who will listen, some people will monopolize another’s time on the telephone as a break from their hectic day or just to combat loneliness. Most of these people don’t realize how they inconvenience others. You need strategies to deal effectively with the “rambling” caller. Strategy Don’t think silence or giving short answers will work , under the assumption the caller will “get the hint.” On the phone, silence is like a vacuum—it demands to be filled. If you don’t respond, he or she will keep talking. Do ask questions . Don’t be afraid to interrupt the rambler with a question. They won’t be offended as long as you appear interested in their response. Use their responses to begin moving toward a conclusion. Set the course of the conversation , using statements such as: “ Mr. Smith, I need to ask you three questions concerning. …” “ I understand you are having trouble understanding your billing statement. Let me take a few minutes to explain it.” Refocus the attention by stating a relevant point Use the “PRC” technique : P araphrase, R eflect, C lose Paraphrase: “I need to make sure I understand what you’ve said.” Emphasize the key points and then shift to addressing just these points. Reflect: Allow the caller to argue, disagree, or add to what you just said. Close: Express appreciation for the caller’s time, mention any action you agreed on, and then end the call. Budget time to listen . Callers often ramble because they are lonely and need someone to talk to. When you talk to customers, you have two conflicting desires: To create a positive image of your agency and to get off the phone in a reasonable time frame. You can do both by investing a specific amount of time listening. Budget what you can afford—but don’t tell the caller you are doing this! As the end of the budgeted time approaches, segue to the subject at hand, interrupt with a question, or give the caller feedback to show that you heard him or her, and then get on to business, or wrap up the call. Establish mutual time limits . When you pick up the phone and realize you have a rambler, take control of the conversation before it gets too far. “Mr. Brown, I need to be in a meeting in 5 minutes. Can we cover what you need now, or can I call you back?” Patience: Give the extra minute or two . To protect your agency’s reputation and image, use a good technique for closure, rather than being abrupt or rude. Seek a smooth transition. Summarize the conversation. Repeat action steps on which you agreed so both parties know what they are responsible for, and what comes next. Let the other party go gracefully with statements such as: “ I know you are busy. I appreciate your help.” “ Thanks for your time. The information you have provided is very helpful. I’ll be back in touch as soon as. …”
Some people thrive on arguments. They are aggressive and probably will disagree with or question everything you say or propose. Your first instinct may be to argue back. Don’t fall into this trap. Strategy Speak softly . If you speak loudly, then the customer needs to speak loudly to be heard over you, and then you speak louder—and before you know it, you’ll be shouting at each other. Speak softly so the customer must be quiet in order to hear you. Ask for their opinions . Argumentative people like to feel they are in control. If you try to rob them of their control, they become more argumentative. If you give them some control by asking a question, they are liable to ease up. Take a break . If you allow yourself to be drawn into the argument and become angry, excuse yourself briefly, count to 10, or get a drink of water. Allow yourself a minute or two to regain your composure. Concentrate on the points of the argument and list them for both of you to see. Deal with these points one at a time. Take notes on the points of the argument. Number each problem so that it can be addressed.
Strategy Remember, the customer isn’t angry at you . The customer isn’t angry with you personally, but at the agency, the situation, or something else completely unrelated. Talk quietly . If the customer is yelling, talk quietly so that he or she has to be quieter to hear you. Talk at a normal pace . If you begin to talk quickly, it will only make matters worse. Be direct . If the customer uses abusive language or makes threats, be direct. Address the client by name and say, for example, “Mr. Smith, I understand that you are upset, but do not use that language/threaten me.” Let the customer know the consequences, calmly and objectively . “When you use this language, it makes it impossible for me or anyone to assist you. We’ll have to reschedule your appointment/postpone the resolution of this problem until we can talk about it rationally.”
Strategy Try to avoid getting into a discussion of the threat . Lead the conversation back to the fundamental issue in dispute. Remind the customer that you are equally interested in finding an equitable solution. Offer to get a third party involved who can evaluate the problem and options. Admit that someone else might have another option that the two of you haven’t come up with. Evaluate the customer’s ability to make good on the threat and decide what to do from there . Don’t overreact; however, there may be occasions when you fear, deep down, for your safety. Look for signs of drug or alcohol use—they may impair the customer’s ability to be rational, and may necessitate taking steps to ensure your personal safety. Advise the customer of the repercussions . Before the threats escalate, calmly advise the customer of the repercussions of the threats, of the fact that threats are taken seriously and treated seriously, and suggest that the customer may want to reconsider. Terminate the interview . If the customer continues the threats, terminate the interview, document the threat, warn/alert the appropriate people (supervisor, reception staff, etc.), and, if necessary, contact the police.
Strategy Detach Yourself from the Customer’s Hostility . Remain professional. Don’t be defensive. Maintain control of yourself and the situation by viewing it objectively. Don’t listen to the personal attacks, untruths, etc. Hostility Curve Let the customer vent. The fastest way to diffuse a customer’s anger is to let him or her blow off steam. Don’t interrupt. Remember, it takes two to sustain a conflict. If you begin responding to the customer’s points while he or she is venting, the customer has engaged you in the argument. If you respond, it will be seen as a rebuttal. The customer will think you disagree, and the situation will escalate. Wait. Hear him or her out. Sometimes it seems that letting the customer vent takes too much time. What is your alternative? Until the customer gets through his or her anger, he or she won’t be able to listen or work toward solutions. Try to listen for and focus on the real problem. Don’t say anything during the customer’s “venting” -- except maybe “I see,” or “I understand”-- to let him know you are attentive. Let the customer vent until you hear silence.
Strategy Detach Yourself from the Customer’s Hostility . Remain professional. Don’t be defensive. Maintain control of yourself and the situation by viewing it objectively. Don’t listen to the personal attacks, untruths, etc. Hostility Curve Let the customer vent. The fastest way to diffuse a customer’s anger is to let him or her blow off steam. Don’t interrupt. Remember, it takes two to sustain a conflict. If you begin responding to the customer’s points while he or she is venting, the customer has engaged you in the argument. If you respond, it will be seen as a rebuttal. The customer will think you disagree, and the situation will escalate. Wait. Hear him or her out. Sometimes it seems that letting the customer vent takes too much time. What is your alternative? Until the customer gets through his or her anger, he or she won’t be able to listen or work toward solutions. Try to listen for and focus on the real problem. Don’t say anything during the customer’s “venting” -- except maybe “I see,” or “I understand”-- to let him know you are attentive. Let the customer vent until you hear silence. Listen – Give Feedback When the customer stops talking, start giving feedback to indicate you heard his or her key points. Don’t agree or disagree, just summarize. Ask questions to verify the facts. Empathize Communicate that you understand the situation from the customer’s perspective. Express empathy for the feelings expressed or demonstrated. Apologize Apologize when the agency is at fault. Express regret when something happened over which your agency has no control. Apology: “I’m sorry we neglected to mail you your statement.” Regret: “It’s unfortunate that the weather conditions resulted in our office closing yesterday, which is why we needed to reschedule your appointment.” SERVICE S =Say you’re sorry. E = Expedite solutions. R = Respond to the customer. V = Victory to the customer. I = Implement improvements. C = Communicate results. E = Extend the outcome. Summarize . Clearly communicate what you will do and when you will do it. Reach a full understanding of what you will do and what the customer needs to do. Talk about any reasonable future contingencies, and what can be done about them. Determine to follow up! Close positively . Express confidence in a positive resolution. Thank the customer for working with you to resolve the problem. Don’t let the angry customer ruin the rest of your day . If you do, it will make it more difficult to deal with subsequent customers and it may affect your overall attitude toward the public, your job, your boss, your agency, your co-workers, etc. Hanging onto the anger also reduces your efficiency. When you hang up the phone after an angry call or leave an unpleasant face-to-face interview, remember the saying “out of sight, out of mind.” When a customer says goodbye (or hangs up on you in anger) he or she is gone. You can go on to the next caller or next task and leave the previous caller’s anger behind.
Work for a “thank you.” Sometimes—often—you have to say no, but if you do it right, you can still get a “thank you” for your service. Strategy Explain why it can’t be done . Give details, but concentrate on the positive and don’t dwell on the negative. Instead of saying “I can’t help you,” say, “We can’t do that, but we can do this.” Don’t quote policy . Don’t say, “Because it’s the law.” Give the customer some background and some explanation. Don’t be patronizing . Don’t talk down to the customer. Keep comments on a professional, adult level. Don’t use the phrase “of course.” (Example: “Of course you don’t understand. You didn’t read my letter.” ) It sounds patronizing and sarcastic. Offer alternatives when you can . Don’t just say no, or “You have to.” Try to help the customer find solutions to the problem. “I apologize for not being able to find the form and having to ask you to fill it out again. Would it be easier for you to come in and do it, or should I drop it into the mail for you?” Avoid making excuses . Instead of saying “I’m sorry your case hasn’t been processed yet, but everyone has been on vacation and we’re pretty backlogged,” say, “I’m sorry your case hasn’t been processed yet. Let’s see how we can expedite the matter, and what you can expect in the future.” Eliminate negative phrases such as “You have to.” Instead of “I can’t do that. You have to talk to Bob,” say, “Let me see if I can transfer you to Bob, who is the one who can make that decision.” Don’t mention other/similar complaints . “You know, a lot of people don’t like that law,” or “You know, our computer has been doing that a lot lately.”
What you need to say/do Display PowerPoint Slide 5-18: Summary & Conclusions . Summarize the material that we have covered in this module. Solicit feedback from participants for each bullet on the participant page. Ask if there are any further questions about this module. After answering the participants’ questions, you can transition to the final module, Module 6: Summary and Wrap-Up . Allow a few minutes for participants to look at Handout 1-1, the Customer Service Training Evaluation Form and evaluate Module 5 at this time (or remind them to do so at the end of the course). What you need to know The learning objectives for this module are: Given a participative lecture, participants will identify methods for diffusing customer anger or hostility. Given a participative lecture and small group activity, participants will develop strategies for handling difficult customers. Given a participative lecture, participants will identify which verbal and nonverbal messages exacerbate a difficult situation and which diffuse a difficult situation. Throughout this module, or at the end, the trainer should go to the flipchart and check off any sticky notes that have been addressed.
Remind participants of our discussion in Module 2 on what effective customer service is within the Child Support Enforcement Program community. Refer back to the Effective C/S flipchart displayed on the wall. Ask participants for feedback to see if these definitions need revisiting or revising. We have identified who our customers are and those we serve, and have emphasized the importance of maintaining high quality customer service. Keep in mind that certain strategies will help you in providing positive customer experience, such as: staying professional, unemotional; practicing positive self-talk; limiting the use of jargon or legal terms; helping the customer focus on the problem; and empathizing with the person. Questions: Who are our customers? Name 3 (CPs, NCPs, Dependents, Employers, Courts, other agencies, IV-A, Sheriff Dept., etc.) Name 2 effective customer service techniques (ask two different people). Which is not a benefit of Effective Customer Service; a) decrease in calls/walk-ins; b) increase in productivity; c) increase in complaints; d) improved reputation. What you need to know Give prizes, candy and one toy for harder questions. Throughout this module, or at the end, the trainer should go to the flipchart and make
