With a little less than 200 days to go until Scotland goes to the polls in the independence referendum, our latest poll for STV News shows little change in public opinion compared to our last poll in December 2013. Among those certain to vote in a referendum, around a third (32%) would vote ‘Yes’ if the vote was held now (down by 2 percentage points from December) while 57% would vote ‘No’ (unchanged from December) and 11% remain undecided.

1. Paste cobrand logo
here
1
Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
February 2014
© Ipsos MORI
Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential
Version 1 | Strictly Confidential

2. Paste cobrand logo
here
2
Independence referendum
© Ipsos MORI
Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential
Version 1 | Strictly Confidential

3. Paste cobrand logo
here
Referendum voting intention
3
Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?
Certain to vote
All voters
Undecided
11%
Undecided
16%
Yes
32%
No
55%
No
57%
Base: All (1,001); all certain to vote (799). Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th– 25th February 2014
© Ipsos MORI
Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential
Version 1 | Strictly Confidential
Yes
29%

4. Paste cobrand logo
here
Referendum voting intention – recent trend
4
Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?
70%
60%
No
50%
40%
Yes
30%
20%
Undecided
10%
0%
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults
© Ipsos MORI
Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential
Version 1 | Strictly Confidential
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14

5. Paste cobrand logo
here
Voting intention excluding ‘don’t knows’
5
Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?
Certain to vote
All voters
Yes
36%
Yes
35%
No
65%
No
64%
Base: All (842); all certain to vote (691). Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th– 25th February 2014
© Ipsos MORI
Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential
Version 1 | Strictly Confidential

6. Paste cobrand logo
here
Voting intention amongst those certain to vote and
definitely decided how they will vote
6
Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?
All definitely decided and certain to vote
80%
No
70%
60%
Yes
33%
50%
40%
Yes
30%
No
67%
20%
10%
0%
Feb-13
Base: All certain to vote and definitely decided (572). Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults
© Ipsos MORI
Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential
Version 1 | Strictly Confidential
May-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Feb-14

7. Paste cobrand logo
here
7
45%
Scots who…
 may not vote (22%)
 will vote but are undecided (9%)
 will vote but may change their vote (14%)
© Ipsos MORI
Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential
Version 1 | Strictly Confidential

8. Paste cobrand logo
here
Floating voters
8
Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?
All undecided voters
Voters who may change
their mind
Undecided
33%
Which way
are you
inclined to
vote?
31%
23%
Yes
39%
No
29%
Yes voters
No voters
Base: All giving a voting intention but may change their mind (215); all undecided (159). Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th– 25th
February 2014
© Ipsos MORI
Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential
Version 1 | Strictly Confidential

9. Paste cobrand logo
here
Long-term trend
9
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
Data taken from MORI and Ipsos MORI polling (1999-07 data taken from Scottish Social Attitudes Survey)
© Ipsos MORI
Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential
Version 1 | Strictly Confidential
2003
2008
2013

10. Paste cobrand logo
here
Voting intention by gender
10
% voting Yes
Men
50%
38%
27%
40%
30%
54%
59%
20%
10%
0%
Yes
No
Base: All certain to vote (799). Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th– 25th February 2014
© Ipsos MORI
Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential
Version 1 | Strictly Confidential
Women

11. Paste cobrand logo
here
Voting intention by age group
11
% voting Yes
16-24*
45%
33%
25-34
35-54
70%
16-24
51%
12%
25-34
60%
43%
50%
40%
30%
20%
30%
28%
10%
12%
35-54
57%
9%
55+
63%
0%
Yes
No
*Jan 2012 – May 2013 this was 18-24 year olds
Base: All certain to vote (799). Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th– 25th February 2014
© Ipsos MORI
Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential
Version 1 | Strictly Confidential
55+

12. Paste cobrand logo
here
Voting intention by levels of deprivation
12
% voting Yes
Most deprived areas
70%
60%
47%
50%
71%
40%
30%
20%
41%
20%
Most deprived areas
10%
Least deprived areas
0%
Yes
No
Base: All certain to vote (799). Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th– 25th February 2014
© Ipsos MORI
Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential
Version 1 | Strictly Confidential
Least deprived areas

13. Paste cobrand logo
here
Voting intention by party support
13
% voting Yes
SNP
76%
80%
11%
76%
70%
13%
60%
14%
50%
40%
30%
20%
94%
13%
5%
10%
82%
0%
Yes
No
Base: All certain to vote (799). Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th– 25th February 2014
© Ipsos MORI
Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential
Version 1 | Strictly Confidential
Lab
Con
Lib Dem

14. Paste cobrand logo
here
14
Currency
© Ipsos MORI
Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential
Version 1 | Strictly Confidential

15. Paste cobrand logo
here
Currency
15
As you may know, the Scottish Government has proposed that an independent Scotland would continue to use the pound within a currency union with the rest
of the UK. The three main UK-wide political parties recently announced that they would not enter into a currency union with an independent Scotland. Based on
this announcement, what impact, if any will this have on how you plan to vote in the referendum? Will you be more likely to vote ‘Yes’, more likely to vote ‘No’ or
will it make no difference?
16%
13%
All
56%
30%
Undecided
44% voters
More likely to
vote Yes
More likely to
vote No
Make no
difference
Don't know
34%
14%
47%
Base: All. Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th– 25th February 2014
© Ipsos MORI
Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential
Version 1 | Strictly Confidential
May
change
mind
37%

16. Paste cobrand logo
here
Technical details
16
• This presents the topline results from Scotland
• Results are based on a survey of 1,001 respondents
(adults aged 16+) conducted by telephone
• Fieldwork dates: 20th– 25th February 2014
• Data are weight by: age, sex and working status using
census data; tenure using SHS data; and public-private
sector employment using Scottish Government Quarterly
Public Sector Employment series data
• Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to
computer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of
“don’t know” categories
• Results are based on all respondents (1,001) unless
otherwise stated
© Ipsos MORI
Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential
Version 1 | Strictly Confidential

17. Paste cobrand logo
here
17
Thank you
mark.diffley@ipsos.com | 0131 240 3269
christopher.mclean@ipsos.com | 0131 240 3264
© Ipsos MORI
Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential
Version 1 | Strictly Confidential
@IpsosMORIScot