Keynote given at the C3-forum in London on 1 June 2011.

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GtCO2e per year
Abatement within Abatement from fuel
EU-27 total GHG emissions Sector Total abatement sector1, 2 shift
5,9
Power 95% to 100% >95%
5.3 5.4
5.2 75% (electric
Road 95% 20% vehicles, biofuels and
1.2 transport fuel cells)
1.2 1.2
-80% Air & sea 50% 30% 20% (biofuels)
0.9 1.0 transport
0.9
= +
0,5 0,6 0,7 Industry 40% 35% (efficiency, 5% (heat pumps)
CCS3)
1.1 1.0 1.0
1.2 Buildings 95% 45% (efficiency) 50% (heat pumps)
0,1
0.9 0.9 0.9 0,4 0,1
0.6 Waste 100% 100%
0.2 0.3 0.3
0.5 0.4 0.3 0
0.2
-0.3
0,1 Agriculture 20% 20%
1990 2010 2030 2050 2050
Forestry -0.25 GtCO2e Carbon sinks
abated
1 Abatement estimates within sector based on the McKinsey Global GHG Cost Curve
2 Large efficiency improvements are already included in the baseline based on the IEA WEO 2009, especially for industry
3 CCS applied to 50% of large industry (cement, chemistry, iron and steel, petroleum and gas, not applied to other industries)
SOURCE: McKinsey Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve; IEA WEO 2009; US EPA; EEA; Team analysis

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EU-27 plus Norway and Switzerland power demand, TWh per year
4.900
4,800
200
950 500
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Power Baseline Buildings Industry Power EVs in Buil- Industry3 Power demand
demand power genera- transport1 dings2 in decarbonized
2005 demand tion pathways 2050
2050 including
Efficiency energy Fuel shift
efficiency
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3 10% of remaining primary energy demand for combustion converted to electricity (heating from heat pumps); assumed 2.5 times as efficient as primary fuel

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