The Demographic Impact of Changing Lifecycles

The
Demographic
Impact
of
Changing
Lifecycles

Observa(ons
&
Predic(ons

JOEL
BEVIN

8
December
2010

 Global
popula?on
trends

 Genera?ons
and
life
phases
of
the
future

 Marke?ng
to
future
genera?ons

 Income
and
consump?on
trends
of
the
future

2
8
December
2010

Key
messages

 The
social
and
economic
success
of
each
na?on
will
be
individually

inﬂuenced
by
global
demographic
trends.

 Lifecycles
have
changed
markedly
over
the
last
half
century
and
we
must

plan
for
similar
changes
over
the
next
half
century.

 As
the
habits,
behaviours
and
spending
paLerns
of
each
genera?on
change,

so
to
will
the
marke?ng
model
used
to
reach
each
target
market.

 Combining
demographic
trends
with
the
changing
lifecycle
helps
us

understand
the
who,
how,
what,
when
and
why
ques?ons
that
form
the
basis

of
demographic
marke?ng.

3
8
December
2010

 Global
popula?on
trends

 Genera?ons
and
life
phases
of
the
future

 Marke?ng
to
future
genera?ons

 Income
and
consump?on
trends
of
the
future

4
8
December
2010

World
popula?on

1900-‐2100

War
Baby
boom
Capacity

Figh?ng
rather
than
Making
up
for
lost
?me…4
billion
Humanity
peaks…expected

reproducing...1
billion
extra
added
over
the
50
years
to
2000
to
top
8.9
billion
in
2068

people
over
the
50
years
to
1950

9

8

7

6

Billions

5

4

3

2

1

0

1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100

Source:
United
Na9ons
Popula9on
Division,
2010

5
8
December
2010

0
–
14

2010
to
2050

Rank
2010
2010
2010-‐2050
Growth

Country
Economic
and
demographic

(Rank
2050)
(million)
(million)
Posi9ve
growth
due
to
a

higher
birth
rate
of
stagna9on
throughout
Decline

1
(1)
India
375
-‐73

Mexican
migrants
much
of
Europe

2
(2)
China
265
-‐50

No
change

3
(3)
Nigeria
68
11

4
(8)
Indonesia
64
-‐12

5
(4)
United
States
63
6

6
(6)
Pakistan
59
5

7
(7)
Bangladesh
55
-‐2

8
(10)
Brazil
53
-‐8

9
(9)
Ethiopia
38
13

10
(5)
Congo
33
31

11
(12)
Philippines
32
-‐4

12
(17)
Mexico
31
-‐9

13
(14)
Egypt
25
-‐1

14
(18)
Viet
Nam
24
-‐3

15
(24)
Russia
21
-‐5

16
(22)
Turkey
20
-‐3

17
(16)
Tanzania
19
4

18
(21)
Iran
19
-‐1

19
(15)
Kenya
17
7

20
(31)
Japan
17
-‐6

High
third-‐
Top
20
1,299
-‐100
world
birth

Remainder
560
65
Economic
development
rate
remains
Chinese
one-‐child
policy

World
1,859
-‐35
in
South
America
drives
in
Africa
and
Asian
development

the
birth
rate
down
sees
birth
rate
decline

Source:
United
Na9ons
Popula9on
Division,
2010

6
8
December
2010

15
–
64

2010
to
2050

Rank
2010
2010
2010-‐2050
Growth

Country
Declining
workforce
in
China,

(Rank
2050)
(million)
(million)

A
shrinking
workforce…may
force
Japan
and
Russia…a
risk
to
Decline

1
(2)
China
973
-‐114

Europe
to
open
borders
to
future
economic
growth?

2
(1)
India
780
336

working-‐age
migrants

3
(3)
United
States
211
37

4
(6)
Indonesia
161
29

5
(10)
Brazil
132
28

6
(4)
Pakistan
107
89

7
(7)
Bangladesh
105
66

8
(15)
Russia
102
-‐36

9
(5)
Nigeria
86
107

10
(21)
Japan
82
-‐30

11
(12)
Mexico
72
10

12
(14)
Viet
Nam
62
14

13
(11)
Philippines
57
38

14
(25)
Germany
54
-‐13

15
(17)
Turkey
53
11

16
(16)
Iran
52
12

17
(13)
Egypt
50
30

18
(9)
Ethiopia
49
73

19
(27)
Thailand
46
-‐5
Workforce
expands

20
(28)
France
41
-‐1
in
Africa…the
new

Top
20
3,276
682

Expanding
workforce
in
global
labour
pool?

the
Americas…supported

Remainder
1,241
674
Increasing
workforce

by
high
birth
rate
and
makes
south-‐east

World
4,518
1,356
liberal
immigra9on
policy

Asia
the
outsourcing

Source:
United
Na9ons
Popula9on
Division,
2010
hub
of
the
world

7
8
December
2010

65+

2010
to
2050

Rank
2010
2010
2010-‐2050

Country

(Rank
2050)
(million)
(million)
The
post-‐WWII
spike
in
births

Growth

1
(1)
China
132
304
created
the
genera9on
of

2
(2)
India
75
216
Baby
Boomers…the
ﬁrst
one

re9ring
next
year
in
2011

3
(3)
United
States
52
64

4
(6)
Japan
37
18

5
(11)
Russia
22
10

6
(10)
Germany
21
11

7
(4)
Indonesia
16
51

8
(5)
Brazil
16
47

9
(13)
Italy
16
9

10
(14)
France
14
11

11
(15)
United
13
10

Kingdom

12
(18)
Spain
10
11

13
(8)
Mexico
9
27

14
(30)
Ukraine
9
2

15
(7)
Pakistan
8
29

16
(9)
Bangladesh
7
27

17
(20)
Thailand
7
14

18
(21)
Rep.
of
Korea
6
14

19
(29)
Poland
6
6

20
(12)
Viet
Nam
6
23
Re9rees
draw
on
social
security
and

Top
20
482
904
health
care…worsening
dependency

Remainder
153
354

ra9os
(re9red
person
per
worker)
may

threaten
social
order
and
economic

World
635
1,258

growth
around
the
world

Source:
United
Na9ons
Popula9on
Division,
2010

8
8
December
2010

United
States
–
age
proﬁle

1950,
2010
and
2050

2050
19%
61%
20%
N
=
439
m

2010
20%
67%
13%
N
=
307
m

1950
27%
65%
8%
N
=
152
m

Younger
Older

0-‐14
15-‐64
65+

Source:
United
Na9ons
Popula9on
Division,
2010

9
8
December
2010

China
–
age
proﬁle

1950,
2010
and
2050

2050
15%
61%
24%
N
=
1.41
b

20%
72%
8%
N
=
1.35
b

2010

1950
34%
62%
4%
N
=
555
m

Younger
Older

0-‐14
15-‐64
65+

Source:
United
Na9ons
Popula9on
Division,
2010

10
8
December
2010

India
–
age
proﬁle

1950,
2010
and
2050

2050
18%
67%
14%
N
=
1.66
b

31%
64%
5%
N
=
1.22
b

2010

1950
37%
59%
3%
N
=
372
m

Younger
Older

0-‐14
15-‐64
65+

Source:
United
Na9ons
Popula9on
Division,
2010

11
8
December
2010

Japan
–
age
proﬁle

1950,
2010
and
2050

2050
11%
53%
36%
N
=
101
m

13%
64%
23%
N
=
128
m

2010

1950
35%
60%
5%
N
=
83
m

Younger
Older

0-‐14
15-‐64
65+

Source:
United
Na9ons
Popula9on
Division,
2010

12
8
December
2010

 Global
popula?on
trends

 Genera?ons
and
life
phases
of
the
future

 Marke?ng
to
future
genera?ons

 Income
and
consump?on
trends
of
the
future

8
December
2010

13

The
Lifecycle

1950

CHILDHOOD
RESPONSIBILITY
LIFESTYLE

0
20
21
59
60

• Large
tradi?onal
family
• Adulthood
–
begins
drinking
and
vo?ng
• Re?rement
is
planned

structure
• Chooses
a
career
and
wife
(both
for
life)
• Shorter
lifespan
and

• Limited
independence
• Income
used
to
maintain
household
reduced
consump?on

14
8
December
2010

The
Lifecycle

2010

CHILDHOOD
EXPERIENTIAL
RESPONSIBILITY
LIFESTYLE

0
14
15
29
30
59
60

• Independent
but
lives
• Begin
family
with
dual
• Oﬃcially
re?red
but

• Smaller
family
at
home
incomes
remains
working

• Focus
on
• Con?nues
educa?on
• Meaningful
career
sought
• Focus
on
health
to

educa?on
&
extra-‐ • Experiments
with
• Begins
to
plan
for
re?rement
maintain
independence

curricular
ac?vi?es
careers
&
lifestyles

• Global
network

15
8
December
2010

The
Lifecycle

2050

CHILDHOOD
EXPERIENTIAL
RESPONSIBILITY
CONSOLIDATE
LIFESTYLE

0
9
10
29
30
59
60
79
80

• Delayed
responsibility

• Con?nues
to

• Childhood
allows
freedom
• No
expecta?on
to
begin

work
(personal
&
• Independent

shortened
• Personal
&

professional
family

ﬁnancial
reasons
• Financial
&

• Demands
purpose
merged
• Diverse
lifestyles
which

• Transient
lifestyle
poli?cal
power

independence
• Independent
but
lives
at
remain
in
a
state
of
ﬂux

&
loca?on

home

16
8
December
2010

The
Consump?on
Lifecycle

2050

CHILDHOOD
EXPERIENTIAL
RESPONSIBILITY
CONSOLIDATE
LIFESTYLE

0
9
10
29
30
59
60
79
80

• Experien?al
consump?on

• Independent
• No
obliga?on
to
save
&
• Will
not
sacriﬁce
• Invests
in
self
• Longer
life
span

consump?on
lifestyle
for
family
educa?on
and
requires
managed

spends
freely
but
with
spending

choices
purpose
health

17
8
December
2010

The
Communica?on
Lifecycle

2050

CHILDHOOD
EXPERIENTIAL
RESPONSIBILITY
CONSOLIDATE
LIFESTYLE

0
9
10
29
30
59
60
79
80

• Social
network
• Merged
social
&
• Technology

separate
to
family
• Renewed
focus
on
• Connected
to

professional
network
maintains

• Communica?on
fostering
personal
globally-‐spread

• Wide
and
varied
circle
of
connec?on
to

instantaneous
and
rela?onships
friends
&
family

friends
social
networks

unrestricted

18
8
December
2010

The
Work
Lifecycle

2050

CHILDHOOD
EXPERIENTIAL
RESPONSIBILITY
CONSOLIDATE
LIFESTYLE

0
9
10
29
30
59
60
79
80

• Remains
in

• Dual-‐income
• Early
working
age
• Career
&
country
of

workforce
on
• Con?nues
to

parents
reinforces
• Combines
travel
&
work
residence
are
transient

own
terms
work
in
casual
or

the
importance
of
• Limited
responsibility
• Iden?ty
to
be
deﬁned
by

• Demands
volunteer
role

career
allows
mul?ple
careers
our
work

ﬂexibility

19
8
December
2010

The
Health
Lifecycle

2050

CHILDHOOD
EXPERIENTIAL
RESPONSIBILITY
CONSOLIDATE
LIFESTYLE

0
9
10
29
30
59
60
79
80

• Greater
health
awareness
• Invests
for
• Physically

• Self-‐diagnose
using
social
• Health
rou?ne
part
of
healthy
old
age
independent

• Beneﬁts
from
network
lifestyle
using
tradi?onal
• Pursues
• Chooses

smaller
family
• Invest
in
health
through
and
modern
therapies
‘youth’
with
preventa?ve

natural
&
ar?ﬁcial
means
despera?on
measures

20
8
December
2010

The
Educa?on
Lifecycle

2050

CHILDHOOD
EXPERIENTIAL
RESPONSIBILITY
CONSOLIDATE
LIFESTYLE

0
9
10
29
30
59
60
79
80

• Interna?onal
curriculum

• Mul?ple
careers
and
• Pursues
further

• Na?onal
and
allows
global
mobility
• Transi?on
to

constantly
reskills

interna?onal
• Online
educa?on
re?rement
with
unoﬃcial

• Online
educa?on
crucial
educa?on

tes?ng
begins
demanded
and
accepted
educa?on

in
busy
lives

by
students
and
industry

21
8
December
2010

 Global
popula?on
trends

 Genera?ons
and
life
phases
of
the
future

 Marke?ng
to
future
genera?ons

 Income
and
consump?on
trends
of
the
future

8
December
2010

22

Era
1
–
Produc?on

PRODUCTION
Factory

• Simpliﬁed
supply
chain

• Scarcity
during
industrial

revolu9on
meant

manufacturers
could
sell

all
that
they
could
Vendor

produce.

• Focus
was
on
produc9on

and
distribu9on
at
the

lowest
cost

Consumer

23
8
December
2010

Era
2
–
Sales

SALES

Factory
Vendor

• Increased
compe99on
at

start
of
20th
century.

• Greater
dialogue

between
factory
and

vendor

• Focus
on
selling
using

communica9ons,

adver9sing
and
branding.

Consumer

24
8
December
2010

Era
3
–
Segmenta?on

SEGMENTATION

Factory
Vendor

• Market
becomes

saturated
from
1960

onwards.
Marke9ng

• Intense
compe99on
for

consumers
leads
to

introduc9on
of
‘marke9ng’

Focus
on
communica9on

and
branding
with

segmented
consumers.
Consumer

Consumer
Consumer

Consumer

25
8
December
2010

The
next
era
–
Consumer-‐defined

Consumer

CONSUMER-‐DEFINED
Consumer

Consumer

• Consumers
define
Consumer

the
product.

• Vendor,
marke9ng

department
and

factory
work

together
to
sa9sfy

consumer.

• Focus
on

differen9a9on
and

collabora9on.

Vendor
Marke9ng
Factory

26
8
December
2010

 Global
popula?on
trends

 Genera?ons
and
life
phases
of
the
future

 Marke?ng
to
future
genera?ons

 Income
and
consump?on
trends
of
the
future

8
December
2010

27

Income
aner
tax

2008

80,000

70,000

Average
annual
income
by
age
of
household

60,000

reference
person
($US)

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

-‐

<25
25-‐34
35-‐44
45-‐54
55-‐64
65+

Source:
US
Consumer
Expenditure
Survey,
2007-‐08

28
8
December
2010

Food
spend

2008

8,000

7,000

Average
annual
spend
by
age
of
household

6,000

reference
person
($US)

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

-‐

<25
25-‐34
35-‐44
45-‐54
55-‐64
65+

Source:
US
Consumer
Expenditure
Survey,
2007-‐08

29
8
December
2010

Housing
spend

2008

25,000

Average
annual
spend
by
age
of
household

20,000

reference
person
($US)

15,000

10,000

5,000

-‐

<25
25-‐34
35-‐44
45-‐54
55-‐64
65+

Source:
US
Consumer
Expenditure
Survey,
2007-‐08

30
8
December
2010

Apparel
spend

2008

2,500

Average
annual
spend
by
age
of
household

2,000

reference
person
($US)

1,500

1,000

500

-‐

<25
25-‐34
35-‐44
45-‐54
55-‐64
65+

Source:
US
Consumer
Expenditure
Survey,
2007-‐08

31
8
December
2010

Health
spend

2008

5,000

4,500

Average
annual
spend
by
age
of
household

4,000

3,500

reference
person
($US)

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

-‐

<25
25-‐34
35-‐44
45-‐54
55-‐64
65+

Source:
US
Consumer
Expenditure
Survey,
2007-‐08

32
8
December
2010

Educa?on
spend

2008

2,000

1,800

Average
annual
spend
by
age
of
household

1,600

1,400

reference
person
($US)

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

-‐

<25
25-‐34
35-‐44
45-‐54
55-‐64
65+

Source:
US
Consumer
Expenditure
Survey,
2007-‐08

33
8
December
2010

Social
security
spend

2008

25,000

Average
annual
spend
by
age
of
household

20,000

reference
person
($US)

15,000

10,000

5,000

-‐

<25
25-‐34
35-‐44
45-‐54
55-‐64
65+

Source:
US
Consumer
Expenditure
Survey,
2007-‐08

34
8
December
2010

Concluding
messages

 Future
demographic
marke?ng
techniques
must
balance
quan?ta?ve

demographic
forecasts
with
qualita?ve
forecasts

 New

global
demographics
will
challenge
na?onal
&
interna?onal

management
of
an
ageing
popula?on
and
a
shrinking
workforce

 Changing
lifecycles
require
micro-‐segmenta?on
in
order
to
reach
and

service
the
demands
of
new
genera?ons

 New
era
of
collabora?on
between
companies
and
consumer
who
are

increasingly
able
to
sa?sfy
themselves

 As
lifecycles
change
so
does
the
?meline
of
purchasing
decisions
–
earlier

in
some
cases
and
delayed
in
others

35
8
December
2010

Arigato
gozaimasu!

Ques?ons?

JOEL
BEVIN

joelfsb@gmail.com

UNIVERSITY
OF
POMPEU
FABRA
(BARCELONA)

8
December
2010

The Demographic Impact of Changing Lifecycles

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