Bednets And Bureaucrats
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The costs and complexities of climate change, from South Africa to Capitol Hill. Presented to Southern Model UN Conference in November 2010.
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Bednets And Bureaucrats
- 1. The costs and complexities of climate change, from South Africa to Capitol Hill Joe Indvik ICF International joe.indvik@gmail.com Bednets and Bureaucrats 1
- 3. 3 Malaria is a threat to half of the global population, mostly developing countries. is preventable and treatable if you have the resources. Climate Change is spread by… Mosquitos breed in hot, wet locations. increase malaria incidence as their population grows. will be bolstered by...
- 5. 5 Temperature Malaria Transmission Temperature and Malaria Faster metabolism Shorter larvae stage Shorter incubation More mosquito deaths
- 6. 6 Malaria can hit vulnerable communities hard… Vendaland, South Africa
- 7. 7 …but is preventable with simple technologies like bednets.
- 9. 9 Low-Income Communities Malaria Incidence Climate Change Tend to live in regions that will be hardest-hit by… Increases the prevalence of… Is dangerous primarily in…
- 10. 10 Malaria is one example of damages caused by climate change. Malaria is preventable but already kills hundreds of thousands of people per year. Emissions from the developed world hit the developing world hardest. The prevention of climate change is equally complex.
- 11. How? How much? Is it worth it? Why haven’t we done it? Reducing Emissions The four big questions: 11
- 12. 12 How?
- 13. Quantity of fossil fuels produced Price The Economics of Climate Change External Costs Private Cost Demand 13
- 14. Quantity of fossil fuels produced Price The Economics of Climate Change External Costs Private Cost Demand Public Cost 14 ActualOptimal Putting a price on carbon aligns the private cost of climate change with the costs to society.
- 15. 15 How much?
- 16. Climate Damage Pathways 16 Carbon Emissions More Solar Energy Trapped Global Warming Biological Disruption Geographical Disruption Economic Disruption Political Upheaval Social Conflict Demographic Change Health Impacts Net Cost Economic Activity Effect on Atmosphere Effect on Earth Systems Effect on Social Systems The relationship between carbon emissions and net social cost The relationship is complicated! This makes it hard to determine the best carbon price. It is made even more complex by…
- 18. 18 Is it worth it?
- 19. 19 The Economics of Climate Change The Damage Function Atmospheric CO2 Damage 19 If we could perfectly predict climate change, the solution would be simple.
- 20. 20 The Economics of Climate Change The Damage Function Atmospheric CO2 Damage 20 ?But there is a range of uncertainty around potential damages And a chance of low-probability, high-impact events resulting from feedback loops i.e. the end of civilization as we know it
- 21. 21 Why haven’t we done it?
- 22. Why haven’t we done it? NIMBY “Not in my back yard” NIMTO “Not in my term of office” Tragedy of the Commons Concentrated pain, diffuse pleasure Uncertainty 22
- 23. How? Put a price on carbon How much? Substantially Under 450 ppm Is it worth it? The better question is: Can we risk it? Why haven’t we done it? Human Nature Reducing Emissions My answers to the big questions: 23
- 25. 25 For the first time in history Both the actions of bureaucrats on the other side of the world and the availability of simple technologies like bednets will dictate the well- being of half the world’s population. Policy, politics, wealth, and health interact on the global stage like never before. Can we find a solution?