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My Journey to
Purchase Solar
Panels


                 1
Agenda

1.   How to pick a system

2.   How to calculate your payback

3.   How to choose a qualified integrator




                                            2
Here’s very little about me
• I’m an Economist*
• I like key lime pie




                        * Masters of Science in Economics from
                                  Florida State University, 1983

                                                               3
I don’t worry about my carbon
           footprint




                   * Unless it pays to be “green.”


                                                4
Important entities recognizes my
 reluctance to “save the planet”*

 30%           Federal Government tax credit
 35%           North Carolina State tax credit

$4,700         Progress Energy utility rebate



       * So they provide incentives to install a Photovoltaic Solar Energy System.

                                                                                5
My selfish priorities
• An extraordinarily high return on investment
• A short payback period




                                  * Show me the money


                                                    6
Step 1

PICK A SYSTEM


                7
Important Questions
• How many Kilowatt-Hours do you want to
  generate a year?
• Where will the unit be installed?
• Do you want to leave surface area on your
  roof for future panel expansion?*



                     * If so, then you may need higher efficiency
                               panels depending on your roof area
                                                                8
Some things won’t matter to you
• Panel aesthetics is a lower
  priority purchase criteria
  for me.
• This should be obvious by
  looking at my dog Andy.




                                    9
Some things will matter a lot
• Warranty is important to me.
• However, the financial stability of the
  company must also be considered.
• What good is a warranty if the company goes
  out of business?*



                      * My recommendation: Pick a tier 1 solar
                                               panel vendor
                                                             10
Line up the options side-by-side
                              SunPower 230            LG 255       REC 240
Price                                  $$$$               $$$             $$
Panel Conversion efficiency           18.5%            15.8%          14.5%
Number of Panels*                         22               24             22
kilowatts                               5.10             6.12           5.28
Kilowatt-Hours                         6,224            6,925          5,975
Dimensions                    Length x Width   Length x Width Length x Width
Warranty                             10 year          10 year         5 year
Inverter                          SunPower     SMA SunnyBoy SB SunnyBoy
                                                        7000           7000




                                 * This is the number of panels my installation
                                          requires to achieve my energy goals.
                                                                              11
Does panel size matter?
• A low conversion factor likely means a larger /
  heavier panel.
• Impact:
  – Larger panels limit the total Kilowatt-Hours you
    can produce with a fixed amount of space on your
    roof
  – Larger panels leave less real estate on your roof
    for future expansion


                                                    12
Step 2

SHOW ME THE MONEY


                    13
Total Savings

+ Lower Monthly Energy Bill
+ Solar Renewable Energy Credits (SRECS)
+ Lower Off Peak hour utility charges*
= Total Savings


                        * If you change your behavior



                                                    14
What’s an SREC?
• Your Photovoltaic Solar System will be creating
  Solar Renewable Energy Certificates (SRECS)
  that your utility company will purchase back
  from you.




               * Our Federal Government mandates that a percentage
                    of their energy portfolio be from renewable energy.


                                                                    15
Progress Energy hates SRECS




     * Utility companies paying you for your energy credits must
               be like biting into a habanera with no water chaser.
                                                                16
Then why do they pay you for your
             SRECs?
• Answer: Because the government forces them to balance
  their energy portfolio with renewable energy sources.
• North Carolina has a Renewable Energy & Efficiency Portfolio
  Standard (REPS) that requires Progress Energy Carolinas to
  have 0.02 percent of its 2010 retail sales come from solar
  power.



                                                 .02%




                                                                 17
You almost feel bad for Progress
              Energy
• Utility companies build plants to satisfy peak energy demand
• They produce an “always on” current of electricity to each
  outlet in your house whether you need it or not
• Your PV system will not change the amount of energy that the
  utility company must produce and have available to your
  house, i.e. they don’t benefit directly by your PV energy
  production.*



                     * However, if enough people install PV Systems, then
                        Progress energy won’t have to build another plant.

                                                                       18
Plug in your numbers
                          2012     2013        2014       2015       2016       2017      2018       2019       2020
Initial Cash Outlay       $
Utility Company Rebate:
  Rebate                  $
  Tax                     $
Net Rebate                [Calc]

Fed Tax Credit                     [ 30% ]
State Tax Credit                   [ 35% ]
Fed Tax on State Credit            $       -
Maintenance                        $       -   $      -   $      -   $      -   $ (100)   $      -   $      -   $      -
Yearly SREC revenue                $ 254       $ 254      $ 254      $ 254      $ 254     $ 949      $ 992      $ 1,037
Yearly Production Savings          $ 413       $ 427      $ 442      $ 458      $ 474     $ 491      $ 508      $ 525
Total Cash Flow           [Calc]   [Calc]      [Calc]     [Calc]     [Calc]     [Calc]    [Calc]     [Calc]     [Calc]
Accumulated Cash Flow              [Calc]      [Calc]     [Calc]     [Calc]     [Calc]    [Calc]     [Calc]     [Calc]




                                                                                                                19
My numbers met my goals
• Payback period in years
• Return on investment %
• Internal Rate of Return




                               20
Other benefits of the system had little
value to me, but might be important to you
Tons of CO2 Offset per             What am I going to do,
year                               brag to my friends about
                                   how I’m saving the
                                   planet?

Added Value to Property            I intend to die in the
                                   house*

               * If you don’t intend to die “under the panels,” than the US
             Appraisal Journal indicates that you can add $20,000 to your
                      home’s value for every $1,000 saved in utility costs.
                                                                         21
One more side benefit from this assessment is
   that it teaches you to change your behavior
Month                                 Off Peak Utility Rates
March – September         Before 10:00 am            After 9:00 pm

October – February        1:00 pm – 4:00 pm          After 9:00 pm


• Progress Energy requires that you “voluntarily” subscribe to their
  residential service time of use program
• The utility specifies different rates for electricity usage throughout
  the day, i.e. Peak and Off Peak Rates
• So you should perform your high electricity usage activities during off
  peak hours since this will lower your electric bill!*

                                     * You can enjoy this benefit today even if
                                                   you don’t install PV panels
                                                                             22
To benefit from off peak rates, you need to
            change your behavior

• Identify high electricity usage appliances, e.g.
  Laundry Washer/Dryer and Dishwasher
• Do your laundry on the weekends or on off peak
  hours
• Set you dishwasher for 4 hour delay after you eat
  dinner so that it runs after 9:00 pm.




                                                      23
Step 3

CAREFULLY CHOOSE A QUALIFIED
PV INTEGRATOR

                               24
Look for “signals” that the company is
                              reputable *
S i g n a l s




                 • I posted a comment to a company’s blog post and
                   received a response the same day.
                 • The company I choose has 120 employees
                 • The company I choose has installed 11,000 + panels in
                   both commercial and residential environments




                                 * These guys are going to be putting holes in my roof.


                                                                                      25
No Jacklegs allowed
                • The employees arrived in company branded vehicles and
S i g n a l s



                  were wearing company branded shirts.
                • Their savings worksheet puts the rebates in the proper year,
                  e.g. you don’t get the Federal Rebate until after your file
                  your taxes in the following year.
                • The Company quotes multiple brands of panels.
                • Some of the quotes include recognized brands that have no
                  history of financial distress.


                               * Jackleg: Southern expression for “Jack of all trades and
                                                                       master of none.”
                                                                                        26
More Signals
                • Can they describe how they will protect your roof tiles?
S i g n a l s




                • Will the installer be around to service their work in 10 years,
                  i.e. are they financially stable?
                • Will they assign a project manager?
                • Will they handle all of the paperwork with Progress Energy?
                • Do they have many commercial and residential references?




                                                                                27
Contract Signed

If you get the right signals, you
       can sign a contract




                                       28
A Happy Economist
Presentation Author
           The contents of the presentation are sole
intellectual property of John Langlois and are not to
       be distributed without prior written approval.

                                Sources for pictures
                             http://www.projectez.com
                           http://www.istockphoto.com




                                                        30
Useful Links
• Sunsense Solar PV Program
  https://www.progress-energy.com/florida/home/save-energy-money/energy-efficiency-
  improvements/sunsense/solar-pv.page

• The PVWatts Solar Calculator
  www.pvwatts.org
• DSIRE State Renewable Tax incentives
• DSIRE Federal Renewable Energy Tax Incentives
• Consumer Guide to Energy Efficiency and Renewable
  Energy


                                                                                      31

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The economics of solar panels

  • 1. My Journey to Purchase Solar Panels 1
  • 2. Agenda 1. How to pick a system 2. How to calculate your payback 3. How to choose a qualified integrator 2
  • 3. Here’s very little about me • I’m an Economist* • I like key lime pie * Masters of Science in Economics from Florida State University, 1983 3
  • 4. I don’t worry about my carbon footprint * Unless it pays to be “green.” 4
  • 5. Important entities recognizes my reluctance to “save the planet”* 30% Federal Government tax credit 35% North Carolina State tax credit $4,700 Progress Energy utility rebate * So they provide incentives to install a Photovoltaic Solar Energy System. 5
  • 6. My selfish priorities • An extraordinarily high return on investment • A short payback period * Show me the money 6
  • 7. Step 1 PICK A SYSTEM 7
  • 8. Important Questions • How many Kilowatt-Hours do you want to generate a year? • Where will the unit be installed? • Do you want to leave surface area on your roof for future panel expansion?* * If so, then you may need higher efficiency panels depending on your roof area 8
  • 9. Some things won’t matter to you • Panel aesthetics is a lower priority purchase criteria for me. • This should be obvious by looking at my dog Andy. 9
  • 10. Some things will matter a lot • Warranty is important to me. • However, the financial stability of the company must also be considered. • What good is a warranty if the company goes out of business?* * My recommendation: Pick a tier 1 solar panel vendor 10
  • 11. Line up the options side-by-side SunPower 230 LG 255 REC 240 Price $$$$ $$$ $$ Panel Conversion efficiency 18.5% 15.8% 14.5% Number of Panels* 22 24 22 kilowatts 5.10 6.12 5.28 Kilowatt-Hours 6,224 6,925 5,975 Dimensions Length x Width Length x Width Length x Width Warranty 10 year 10 year 5 year Inverter SunPower SMA SunnyBoy SB SunnyBoy 7000 7000 * This is the number of panels my installation requires to achieve my energy goals. 11
  • 12. Does panel size matter? • A low conversion factor likely means a larger / heavier panel. • Impact: – Larger panels limit the total Kilowatt-Hours you can produce with a fixed amount of space on your roof – Larger panels leave less real estate on your roof for future expansion 12
  • 13. Step 2 SHOW ME THE MONEY 13
  • 14. Total Savings + Lower Monthly Energy Bill + Solar Renewable Energy Credits (SRECS) + Lower Off Peak hour utility charges* = Total Savings * If you change your behavior 14
  • 15. What’s an SREC? • Your Photovoltaic Solar System will be creating Solar Renewable Energy Certificates (SRECS) that your utility company will purchase back from you. * Our Federal Government mandates that a percentage of their energy portfolio be from renewable energy. 15
  • 16. Progress Energy hates SRECS * Utility companies paying you for your energy credits must be like biting into a habanera with no water chaser. 16
  • 17. Then why do they pay you for your SRECs? • Answer: Because the government forces them to balance their energy portfolio with renewable energy sources. • North Carolina has a Renewable Energy & Efficiency Portfolio Standard (REPS) that requires Progress Energy Carolinas to have 0.02 percent of its 2010 retail sales come from solar power. .02% 17
  • 18. You almost feel bad for Progress Energy • Utility companies build plants to satisfy peak energy demand • They produce an “always on” current of electricity to each outlet in your house whether you need it or not • Your PV system will not change the amount of energy that the utility company must produce and have available to your house, i.e. they don’t benefit directly by your PV energy production.* * However, if enough people install PV Systems, then Progress energy won’t have to build another plant. 18
  • 19. Plug in your numbers 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Initial Cash Outlay $ Utility Company Rebate: Rebate $ Tax $ Net Rebate [Calc] Fed Tax Credit [ 30% ] State Tax Credit [ 35% ] Fed Tax on State Credit $ - Maintenance $ - $ - $ - $ - $ (100) $ - $ - $ - Yearly SREC revenue $ 254 $ 254 $ 254 $ 254 $ 254 $ 949 $ 992 $ 1,037 Yearly Production Savings $ 413 $ 427 $ 442 $ 458 $ 474 $ 491 $ 508 $ 525 Total Cash Flow [Calc] [Calc] [Calc] [Calc] [Calc] [Calc] [Calc] [Calc] [Calc] Accumulated Cash Flow [Calc] [Calc] [Calc] [Calc] [Calc] [Calc] [Calc] [Calc] 19
  • 20. My numbers met my goals • Payback period in years • Return on investment % • Internal Rate of Return 20
  • 21. Other benefits of the system had little value to me, but might be important to you Tons of CO2 Offset per What am I going to do, year brag to my friends about how I’m saving the planet? Added Value to Property I intend to die in the house* * If you don’t intend to die “under the panels,” than the US Appraisal Journal indicates that you can add $20,000 to your home’s value for every $1,000 saved in utility costs. 21
  • 22. One more side benefit from this assessment is that it teaches you to change your behavior Month Off Peak Utility Rates March – September Before 10:00 am After 9:00 pm October – February 1:00 pm – 4:00 pm After 9:00 pm • Progress Energy requires that you “voluntarily” subscribe to their residential service time of use program • The utility specifies different rates for electricity usage throughout the day, i.e. Peak and Off Peak Rates • So you should perform your high electricity usage activities during off peak hours since this will lower your electric bill!* * You can enjoy this benefit today even if you don’t install PV panels 22
  • 23. To benefit from off peak rates, you need to change your behavior • Identify high electricity usage appliances, e.g. Laundry Washer/Dryer and Dishwasher • Do your laundry on the weekends or on off peak hours • Set you dishwasher for 4 hour delay after you eat dinner so that it runs after 9:00 pm. 23
  • 24. Step 3 CAREFULLY CHOOSE A QUALIFIED PV INTEGRATOR 24
  • 25. Look for “signals” that the company is reputable * S i g n a l s • I posted a comment to a company’s blog post and received a response the same day. • The company I choose has 120 employees • The company I choose has installed 11,000 + panels in both commercial and residential environments * These guys are going to be putting holes in my roof. 25
  • 26. No Jacklegs allowed • The employees arrived in company branded vehicles and S i g n a l s were wearing company branded shirts. • Their savings worksheet puts the rebates in the proper year, e.g. you don’t get the Federal Rebate until after your file your taxes in the following year. • The Company quotes multiple brands of panels. • Some of the quotes include recognized brands that have no history of financial distress. * Jackleg: Southern expression for “Jack of all trades and master of none.” 26
  • 27. More Signals • Can they describe how they will protect your roof tiles? S i g n a l s • Will the installer be around to service their work in 10 years, i.e. are they financially stable? • Will they assign a project manager? • Will they handle all of the paperwork with Progress Energy? • Do they have many commercial and residential references? 27
  • 28. Contract Signed If you get the right signals, you can sign a contract 28
  • 30. Presentation Author The contents of the presentation are sole intellectual property of John Langlois and are not to be distributed without prior written approval. Sources for pictures http://www.projectez.com http://www.istockphoto.com 30
  • 31. Useful Links • Sunsense Solar PV Program https://www.progress-energy.com/florida/home/save-energy-money/energy-efficiency- improvements/sunsense/solar-pv.page • The PVWatts Solar Calculator www.pvwatts.org • DSIRE State Renewable Tax incentives • DSIRE Federal Renewable Energy Tax Incentives • Consumer Guide to Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy 31