The Impact of Social Media on the 2010 US Elections
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An overview of the potential impact of social media on the 2010 US midterm elections presented to the American Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong, in August 2010.
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The Impact of Social Media on the 2010 US Elections
- 1. The Impact of Social Media on the 2010 US Elec8ons Jonathan Kopp Partner & Global Director, Ketchum Digital 31 August 2010
- 2. 2 In the last two cycles, Dems added 55 House seats & gained a majority. The question isn’t whether GOPs will pick up seats in 2010, but how many. Latest Horserace Polls
- 3. 3 1948
- 4. campaigns or commerce: it’s all COMMUNICATIONS
- 5. PAST IS 5 Produced by Roy Disney PROLOGUE Ike, 1952. The “Living Room Candidate” Eisenhower Answers America
- 6. PENDULUM 6 swings BACK LBJ, 1964. “Daisy” (Change = Risk) Produced by Doyle, Dane Birnbach
- 7. 40 years later, the world awoke to SOCIAL MEDIA 7 In Q3 2003, Dean raised about $15 million (mostly small dona8ons), a record for a Democra8c presiden8al candidate. By mid-‐November, the Howard Dean Meetup group boasted more than 140,000 members.
- 8. 8 Were it not for the Internet, Barack Obama would not be president. -‐Arianna Huffington The tools changed between 2004 & 2008. Obama won… every single caucus state that maFers… because he was able to move thousands of people to organize. -‐Joe Trippi
- 9. 9
- 10. 10
- 11. 11 I am learning to get online myself, and I will have that down fairly soon, getting on myself…. I don’t e-mail. I’ve never felt the particular need to e-mail. John McCain, as quoted in the New York Times, 13 July 2008
- 12. 12 “MyBO” “The campaign’s official stuff they created for YouTube was watched for 14.5 million hours. To buy 14.5 million hours on broadcast TV is $47 million.” Joe Trippi
- 14. 2008 2009 14 The SINCEREST form of FLATTERY
- 15. 15 GOPs now HILL TWEETS Dominate the • 60% of Couse, GHill eslected lose to 5users many tOPs. as Dems. • In the H apitol OPs end c Twi3er X as are G weets Major SoMe • Senate GOPS out tweet Dems by 35%. Media Pladorms HILL VIDEO • 89% of congressional GOPs have YouTube channels (only 74% of all Hill Dems). • GOPs own 8 of the top 10 most viewed and subscribed congressional YouTube channels.” HILL FACEBOOK • House Minority Leader John Boehner has 75,443 FB fans; • Majority Leader Pelosi has a mere 20,445. • The "Impeach Pelosi” page has 80,000+.
- 16. 16 The 2010 US Tool Kit Facebook TwiTer Hidden Party AffiliaUon Blogs YouTube Share E-‐mail sign up Text sign up Video The 2010 Flickr Social Media Less Commonly Google Buzz FourSquare Toolkit Used MulUlingual Campaign Site
- 17. Spanish Language 17 TwiTer Obscured Facebook Party YouTube AffiliaUon Flickr RSS Blog & Toolbar Email & SMS Sign-‐up Rapid Response Donate Act 2010 Video Embedded Social Media Toolkit Share
- 18. NEVADA 18 Will WASHINGTON Harry Sharron PaTy Dino COLARADO Ken Michael SOCIAL MEDIA Reid Angle Murray Rossi Buck Bennet Facebook x x x x x x be the TwiTer x x x x x x DIFFERENCE Campaign Site x x x x x x Spanish Site x x MAKER Blog x x x x in 2010 YouTube x x x x x x Flickr x x x x Google Buzz x Share x x x x x x E-‐mail sign up x x x x x x Text sign up x x x x x Video x x x x x x FourSquare x Hidden Party x x x x x AffiliaUon
- 19. 19 Scof Brown (R-‐MA), Special Elec8on & Social Media BROWN BEAT COAKLEY ACROSS SOCIAL MEDIA 10:1 In Web traffic 3:1 in TwiTer followers 10:1 YouTube views 4:1 in Facebook followers in SOCIAL MEDIA AS PREDICTOR? The 1st poll to correctly predict Brown’s January 19 win was a social media poll on January 14, when tradiUonal polls were sUll showing a close race.
- 20. Gordon David Nick 20 UK Conserva8ves Facebook Brown x Cameron x Clegg x Dominate Social Media TwiTer Site Campaign x x x x x x Cameron Bounces Brown Blogs x x YouTube x x Flickr x Share x x E-‐mail sign up x x x Text sign up x x x Video x x Download x Incumbent ignores YouTube & Flickr (10 Downing page censored viewer comments)
- 21. Juan Manuel Santos Antanas Mockus Facebook x x 21 Turning the Tide TwiTer x x in Colombia Campaign Site My Space x x x YouTube x x Santos: Flickr Share x x x x From 12% down to a win E-‐mail sign up x Text sign up X in final 50 days Video x x Mockus: Loss afributed to social media presence that lacked authenHc engagement http://www.networkworld.com/news/2010/080510-social-media-aids-the-election.html
- 22. 22 Have We Learned Anything
- 23. the POWER of • Obama outspent McCain 10-‐1 online. digital + social media: – esUmated $8 million MICROTARGETING, – ≥ 50% of all 2008 online poliUcal ad EMPOWERMENT & spending MOBILIZATION
- 24. but OLD MEDIA s8ll RULES • Obama spent $250MM+ on general elecUon ads, versus $130MM by McCain. • Secret weapon: Radio – Obama outspent McCain 5-‐1.
- 25. • 24mm youth (18-‐29) voted in 2008 • 2.2mm more youth than in 2004 In hindsight, • Highest youth turnout ever (est. 49-‐55%) • About 66% of them voted for Obama it seems inevitable…
- 26. • 24mm youth (18-‐29) voted in 2008 • 2.2mm more youth than in 2004 In hindsight, • Highest youth turnout ever (est. 49-‐55%) • About 66% of them voted for Obama it seems inevitable… DIFFERENCE MAKERS: VISION STRATEGY MESSAGE DISCIPLINE AUTHENTIC ENGAGEMENT INNOVATION & INTEGRATION
- 27. • Did one side’s consistent usage of 27 social media have an electoral impact? • Did it increase youth turn out? • Did it maTer in the midterms, where the tradiUonal turnout is small numbers of seniors? • Did it help less funded candidates? Some Ques8ons • Did it widen the gap for well-‐heeled for Amer the candidates? Polls Close • What’s next?
- 28. The Impact of Social Media on the 2010 US Elec8ons Jonathan Kopp Partner & Global Director, Ketchum Digital 31 August 2010