Presentation given at the H2O 2012 Conference in San Diego.

1. Justin Vandever, PE, Kris May, PhD PE, Brendan Gunn, CFM
justin.vandever@aecom.com
Headwaters to Ocean 2012 Conference
May 29-31, 2012
San Diego, CA

2. Project Team
 Project Management Team
o MTC: Ashley Nguyen, Brenda Dix
o BCDC: Wendy Goodfriend, Joe LaClair, Lindy Lowe
o Caltrans: Stephen Yokoi, Richard Fahey
 Consultant Team
o AECOM: Claire Bonham-Carter, Yanna Badet, Marcia
Tobin, Sarah Heard, Jeff Chan, Ryan Park, Kris
May, Justin Vandever, Brendan Gunn, Bob Fish, Stan
Kline
o Arcadis: Peter Wijsman, Lucas Paz
o Geografika: Megan Gosch
o 3D Visions: Kate Gillespie

3. ART and FHWA Background
Adapting to Rising Tides Project
 Partnership between SF Bay Conservation and
Development Commission (BCDC) and NOAA
Coastal Services Center
 Increase preparedness and resilience of Bay Area
communities to sea level rise
 Evaluate shoreline impacts,
vulnerabilities and risks,
identify adaptation strategies
and planning tools

4. ART and FHWA Background
Federal Highway Administration Risk Assessment
Conceptual Model
 MTC, Caltrans, and BCDC collaborated on
subregional planning pilot project
 Provides a framework for conducting risk and
vulnerability assessments
 Test Federal Highway Administration (FHWA)
conceptual Risk Assessment model to assess SLR
risks to transportation infrastructure
 Portion of Alameda County shoreline selected for
study area

5. Pilot Study: Alameda County
 One of Several Pilot
Bay
Studies to test the FHWA Bridge
Conceptual Model Previous
(Vulnerability of USGS/BCDC
Alameda Maps
Transportation Assets to Island
Climate Change)
 Alameda County: Diverse Airport
Range of Shore
Protection and
Transportation Assets
 Project Extent: San Mateo
Bridge
Emeryville to Union City Salt
Ponds

6. Federal Highway
Administration
Vulnerability and
Risk Assessment
Conceptual Model
1. Data Asset Inventory
2. Asset Screening and
Prioritization
3. Climate and Shoreline
Information
4. Vulnerability Assessment
5. Risk Assessment
6. Next Steps/ Adaptation
Strategies

7. Transportation Asset Inventory
Roads
Transit
Facilities
Bike/Pedestrian
Map: Geografika

8. Shoreline Asset Inventory
 Identify the topographic feature that controls
inundation landward of shoreline (e.g., levee, road
embankment, beach, etc)
 May not be the true “shoreline” (e.g., MHW, etc)
 Shoreline Categories
1. Engineered Flood Protection Structures
2. Engineered Shoreline Protection Structures
3. Non-Engineered Berms
4. Wetlands
5. Natural Shorelines (Non-Wetland)
 Shoreline delineation will be used later to determine
vulnerability to inundation

9. Shoreline Asset Categories
Engineered Shoreline Protection
Flood Protection Levee
Natural Shoreline (non-wetland)
Non-Engineered Berm Images: Google Earth Wetland Shoreline

10. Shoreline Categorization Maps
Wetland
Berms
Engineered
Shoreline
Protection Natural
Engineered
Flood
Protection
Maps: Arcadis

11. Sea Level Rise Scenarios for
Inundation Mapping
 Sea Level Rise
o 16” (high-end 2050)
o 55” (mid-range 2100)
 Inundation Map Scenarios
o MHHW + 16”
o MHHW + 55”
o 100-yr SWL + 16”
o 100-yr SWL + 55”
o 100-yr SWL + 16” + wind/wave
o 100-yr SWL + 55” + wind/wave Map: Geografika
 Include depth of inundation and hydraulic connectivity

12. Inundation Scenarios
 MHHW – Mean Higher High Water. Typical daily high tide.
Frequent inundation.
 100-yr Stillwater Level (SWL) – Extreme high tide. Very rare
event. Also, the 1%-annual-chance tide level. No wave or local
meteorological effects.
 100-yr SWL + wind and wave effects. Includes wind setup and
wave setup at the shoreline. Includes wave height effects (but
not wave runup or overtopping). Extreme coastal flood event.
wind/wave

13. Inundation Mapping Inputs
 Topography: 2m Digital Elevation Model (DEM) using 2010 CA
Coastal LIDAR (USGS)
 Daily and extreme tide levels – USGS TRIM2D (Knowles, 2009)
 Storm wave scenarios – FEMA MIKE21 hydrodynamic model:
wind setup, wave setup, wave height (DHI, 2010)
 Hydraulic Connectivity – resolved using NOAA CSC
methodology (Marcy et al., 2011)
 Depth of Inundation grids – depth
along shoreline and at transportation
assets

14. Ocean Protection Council LIDAR
 USGS 2010
 Complete Coverage
to 10 m Contour
 2 m DEM used for
inundation
mapping
 Resolves Levees

15. USGS TRIM2D Modeling
Hydrodynamic Model
Extraction Points
100-yr Water Level Time Series
(Detrended = SLR trend removed)
Estimate MHHW and 100-yr SWL at each extraction point

16. FEMA MIKE21 Modeling
 DHI (2010) for
FEMA
 32-year
Continuous
Hindcast
 Water Levels
Swell
(MIKE21 HD)
 Wind Waves
(MIKE21 SW)
 Ocean Swell
(MIKE21 SW)

17. NOAA Methodology
 Sea Level Rise Viewer (Marcy et al, 2011)
 Hydraulic Connectivity
 Inputs:
o Water Surface
Elevation (DEM)
at Shoreline
o Transect Definition
o DEM (at a resolution
that resolves
shoreline features)

18. Mid Century (16” SLR)
MHHW 100-yr SWL
Maps: Geografika

19. Mid Century (16” SLR)
100-yr SWL Shoreline
Overtopping
Potential
Maps: Geografika

20. End of Century (55” SLR)
Maps: Geografika
MHHW 100-yr SWL

21. End of Century (55” SLR)
Shoreline
Overtopping
Potential
100-yr SWL Maps: Geografika

22. Maps Help Quantify Exposure
 Overlay Transportation
Assets with 6 Inundation
Maps
 Assess for each Asset,
for each Scenario:
o Is it Inundated?
o Max Depth of
Inundation?
 Distance from asset to
overtopped shoreline
 Percent of shoreline
overtopped

23. Risk Profiles
 Road Networks
o Interstates/Freeway
o Bridges/Tubes
o Local Streets
 Transit
o Bus Routes
o Bart Alignments
o Rail Corridors
 Facilities
 Bike & Pedestrian Paths

24. Wrap-up
 Download the report online:
http://www.mtc.ca.gov/planning/climate/
 Completed in Nov. 2011
 Briefing Book
 Full Report
 Thank you
Justin Vandever, PE
AECOM
Oakland, CA
justin.vandever@aecom.com