This document summarizes Indonesia's fossil fuel outlook from 2013-2014. It provides data on proven oil and gas reserves in Asia Pacific countries, with China having the largest crude oil reserves and Australia and Indonesia having some of the largest natural gas reserves. The document also discusses Indonesia's LNG exports, import of crude oil, and challenges to upstream investment like land issues and uncertain regulations. Overall, it finds that while Indonesia has significant fossil fuel resources, the investment climate is challenging compared to other Asia Pacific countries like Malaysia and Australia.

1. Indonesia And its Surrounding
Fossil Energy Outlook
2013-2014
EMP New Venture Review Dec-2013
Prepared by Alfaidhul Akbar
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2. GLOBAL OUTLOOK
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3. World Proven Oil & Gas Resources
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4. Proven Crude Oil Reserves Asia Pasific
 The most biggest proven crude oil
reserves was held by China in 2012
with 25584 MMBBL.
World Proven Crude Oil Reserves by Country
60,000
Others
50,000
million barrels
Australia
40,000
Vietnam
Malaysia
30,000
Indonesia
20,000
India
10,000
0
2008
Brunei
China
India
Indonesia
Malaysia
Vietnam
Australia
Asia and Pacific
China
Brunei
2009
2008
1,200
15,493
5,651
3,990
5,357
4,700
3,428
41,030
2010
2009
1,100
18,000
5,673
3,990
5,500
4,500
4,239
44,180
2011
2010
1,100
18,000
5,673
3,990
5,500
4,400
4,061
43,943
2012
2011
1,100
20,350
5,549
3,885
5,850
4,400
3,872
46,262
 Second big proven reserves was
held by Malaysia and India.
 Brunei and Vietanme have a
constant proven reserves year by
year.
 China and Malaysia show
increasing trend of proven crude
reserves
Crude Oil Reserves (2012)
2012
1,100
25,584
5,571
4,030
5,850
4,400
3,872
51,587
Australia
8%
Brunei
2%
Vietnam
9%
Malaysia
11%
Indonesia
8%
China
51%
India
11%
OPEC Annual Statistic 2013
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5. Proven Natural Gas Reserves Asia Pasific
Proven Natural Gas Reserves
 Top 4 bigest natural gas reserves are
Australia, China, Indonesia, and Malaysia.
Others
Australia
 Both Australia and China show positive
trend, increasing proven reserves year by
year.
Vietnam
Thailand
 Indonesia shows negative trend that
natural gas reserves decreases.
Pakistan
Myanmar
Malaysia
Indonesia
India
Proven Natural Gas Reserves
China
18000
Brunei
16000
Bangladesh
Others
Australia
14000
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
(Billion standard cu m)
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
Malaysia has a positive trend both in oil
and gas proven reserves growth
3000
3500
(Billion standard cu m)
0
12000
Vietnam
4000
Thailand
Pakistan
10000
Myanmar
8000
Malaysia
Indonesia
6000
India
4000
China
Brunei
2000
Bangladesh
OPEC Annual Statistic 2013
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
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6. Crude Oil Prices
Selected Country Crude Oil Price
140
120
Crude Oil Prices ($/b)
100
80
60
40
20
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Indonesia Attaka
Indonesia Minas
Malaysia Miri
2012
China Daqing
Malaysia Tapis
2011
Australia Gippsland
 Oil price was fallen in 2009 due to economic crisis hit in Europe and US (Western Recession)
 In 2010 to 2012, oil drove up due to turmoil in Middle East, and demanded high oil supply in
China and India to support their industri growth.
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7. Crude Oil Prices
Crude Oil Prices to OPEC Reference Basket (US$/b)
12
10
US$/barrel
8
6
4
2
0
-2
2002
2003
2004
Indonesia Attaka
2005
Indonesia Minas
2006
China Daqing
2007
Malaysia Tapis
2008
Malaysia Miri
2009
2010
2011
2012
Australia Gippsland
 All crude oil price normalized to OBR (OPEC Reference Basket)
 Malaysia oil price is higher than Indonesia oil price and others. It might be the reason why Hess
Corp farmout Indonesia and Thailand’s assets and keep its assets in Malaysia.
 In 2009, China crude oil prize droped down below normalized prices. Even,China crude oil is
most lower price in vicinity country.
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8. Policy Index Rank
(Frasser Institute, 2013)
 Indonesia sit at bottom rank in Policy Perception Index. It is showed that Petroleum
Policy in Indonesia were not liked by Investor due to uncertain regulations and
policies, with nationalization of resources as the ultimate goal.
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9. Policy Index and Reserves Comparisson
(Frasser Institute, 2013)
 Lower policy index score means a better investment choice
 Bubble shows reserves size, bigger bubble means bigger reserves.
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10. Policy Index Summary
• Strong:
• Single national regulator
• clear, transparent, and efficient
legal and administrative
• Weakness:
• A lot of regulations and operation
controls
• Strong:
• favorable fiscal terms,
• Good regulations
• Good labour issues
• Weakness:
• Underexplored
• Natural gas resources
Malaysia
Phillipine
• Strong:
• Rich natural resources
• First PSC sytem in the world
• Weakness:
• Nationalization issues
• Land acces
• High fiscal intake
• Uncertain regulatory
• Official corrupted
• Strong:
• favorable fiscal terms,
exploration is incentivized,
regulations transparent
• ease of access to authorities and
technical data
• Weakness:
• High labour cost
• Anti-fossil fuel paradigm
Indonesia
Australia
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11. Global Investment Climate Map
(Frasser Institute, 2013)
 Actractiveness measuring is not only based hydrocarbon richness, but weighted by
several factor such as policies, geopolitic, and financial support
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12. INDONESIA INSIGHT
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13. Oil Refinery Map
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14. Importing Crude Oil
 In 2011, Indonesia imported
around 460 thousand bbl/d of
crude oil and lease condensate,
according to Lloyd's List
Intelligence tanker tracking
service.
 More than a quarter of imports
came from Saudi Arabia.
 Other significant suppliers
included Malaysia (13 percent),
Nigeria (11 percent), and
Australia (7 percent).
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15. Indonesia LNG
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16. Indonesia LNG Export
 Initially, gas production oriented
towards export, but declining oil
production shits gas towards
domestic comsumption.
 In 2011, Indonesia consumed 1.3
Tcf of natural gas, or just under
half of its total dry gas production.
 Although the industrial sector
accounts for the largest portion of
domestic consumption, industry
analysts expect the power sector
to be the most significant driver of
future consumption growth.
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17. Indonesia Basin Map
 Future petroleum development in Indonesia depend on producing from drilled with discovery
basin, new exploration concept to explore drilled without discovery basin, and drill undrilled
basin.
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18. Indonesia Discovery Map
(IHS 2008 op cit Satyana, 2013)
 Dominantly, number of discoveries was held by West Indonesia with highest discovery in South
Sumatra Basin.
 In size of discovery, East Indonesia is much bigger than West Indonesia.
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19. Indonesia Petroleum Working Area
Indonesia Working Area
200
120%
No. Of WA
80%
100
60%
40%
50
Prod./Exp. (%)
100%
150
20%
0
0%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Production Working Area
Exploration Working Area
CBM Working Area
Ratio Prod/Exp
(SKK MIGAS, 2012)
 In 2012, total working area in Indonesia is 309 working area, cosists of:
- Conventional: Production area: 75, Exploration area: 180
- CBM area: 54
 In average 2002-2012, ratio production to exploration block averaging 59%. So it means probability of
exploration succes is about 59%.
- trendline of Prod./Expl. shows declined, Rosing of exploration blocks were not followed by production block
rose.
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20. Seismic Survey
Seismic Survey Length
40000
140000
35000
120000
30000
100000
25000
80000
20000
60000
15000
10000
40000
5000
 2D seismic survey was peak in 2010 and
then fallen below 30% in 2011. sligthly,
it shows positive trend during 20112012.
20000
0
0
2007
2008
2009
2D Seismic
2010
2011
2012
2D Seismic Cum.
3D Seismic Survey Coverage
16000
140000
14000
120000
12000
100000
10000
80000
8000
60000
6000
4000
40000
2000
 3D seismic survey was peak in 2008,
followed by a 50% declining in 2009.
After positive trend during 2009-2010,
it came to fall again during 2010-2012.
20000
0
0
2007
2008
2009
3D Seismic
2010
2011
2012
3D Seismic Cum.
(SKK MIGAS, 2012)
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21. Exploration Well
Wildcat Well
Exploration Well Drilled
0.7
100
60
0.6
50
0.5
40
0.4
30
0.3
20
0.2
20
10
0.1
0
0
80
60
40
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Onshore
0
2008
2009
Wildcat
Offshore
2010
Discovery
2011
2012
Succes Ratio
Well Discovery and Resources Bubble
 High onshore to offshore ratio, it suggest
that exploration was strongly in onshore
area.
154
 Succes ratio averaged 59%, and showing
decline trend.
35
30
25
20
361
235
15
987
508
10
5
0
2007
Succes Ratio
70
No. of wells
120
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
 Both of number of well discoveries and
resources were rosed in 2012 with 27
discoveries and 987 mmboe.
Well Discovery
(SKK MIGAS, 2012)
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22. Upstream Activity Obstacles
Obstacles Doing Upstream Business 2012
Subsurface Complexity
Internal Company
Equipments and Facilities
External Factor
(SKK MIGAS, 2012)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
 The biggest issue doing business in Indonesia is External Factor such as land
usage, overlapping area, work permit, and social relation.
 Internal company is second issue, it is about holding priority/focuss, financial,
and operatorship.
 Equipments and facilities is about rig, pipelines, etc.
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23. Conclussion
 Largest proven oil & gas reserve in the world:
- Oil: Venezuela, Suadi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, and Kuwait. As for Indonesia rank
28 in the world.
- Gas: Rusia, Iran, qatar, Turkmenistan, and USA. As for Indonesia rank 15 in
the world.
 In Asia Pacific, China has the biggest proven reserve both crude oil (1st rank)
and natural gas (2nd rank).
 Based on policy factor in Asia Pacific, Indonesia has poor rank and not
suggested to do investment. It is caused by uncertain regulatory,
nationalization issue.
 Major obstacles doing investment in Indonesia are land clearances, social
issue, overlapping area, uncertain regulatory.
 Future development in Indonesia will be East Indonesia which is
underexplored now, and high risk.
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24. Thank You
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“ To become the leading Independent Oil and Gas Exploration and Production Company in Asia”
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