Techtalk on the importance of (speed) estimates

1. The importance of
speed (rough)
estimates
Techtalk, 23.10.2012
Jonas Vonlanthen, BizDev/PO @ Liip
Liip SA

2. Remember your latest
project failure

3. Project start (Sprint 0)
Everyone’s happy :)
Workshops - everyone’s cheerful and happy
“Scope workshop is awesome, we find new cool
ideas and write them down as user stories”
Liip SA Oct 22, 2012 | Page 3

4. Sprint 1
Client’s happiness index : 5
Discovery of the methodology
Learning new stuff
Writing stories is cool
Liip SA Oct 22, 2012 | Page 4

5. Sprint 2
Client’s happiness index : 4
Still cool but a bit worried about the speed :-S
“I thought the team would go faster”
Liip SA Oct 22, 2012 | Page 5

6. Sprint 3
Client’s happiness index : 5
“Yeah the team starts to pick up speed, I have a
good feeling”.
Liip SA Oct 22, 2012 | Page 6

7. Sprint 4
Client’s happiness index : 4
“Woohoo, I start to see cool stuff!”
“Woahou, the budget has passed 50%
already?”
Liip SA Oct 22, 2012 | Page 7

8. Sprint 5
Client’s happiness index : 3
“Wait... we have 2 remaining sprints????”
“Let’s try to see what will fit in there!”
Liip SA Oct 22, 2012 | Page 8

9. Sprint 6
Client’s happiness index : 2
“F***, we will never manage to do all the
remaining features! My boss will kill me.”
“Ok, you told us we couldn’t do the whole
scope, but didn’t warn us it was so far off!”
Liip SA Oct 22, 2012 | Page 9

10. Sprint 7
Client’s happiness index : 2
“We initially send you a “brief” by email, you
knew what we wanted, blablalba”
“What? Golive and last tweaks will take half a
sprint?”
The boss of the client comes into play (and
doesn’t understand shit) : “Who is paying
now?”
Liip SA Oct 22, 2012 | Page 10

11. Does that sound
familiar?

12. Findings

13. Regard of budget and deadlines are the very
important into customer’s eyes.
Often, regard of the initial scope is also very
important.
However, nobody’s dumb, lots of projects go
wrong (Chaos Report, Standish group).
Liip SA Oct 22, 2012 | Page 13

14. In all this, what I identified as being the most
important are early warnings.
==> we need metrics to track progress
==> we need projection in order to better
manage expectations
And this from Sprint 0 on!
Liip SA Oct 22, 2012 | Page 14

15. Solution:
Estimate everything!

16. Even an epic that has a one sentence
description!
Even when we do not know how we will do it!
Even when we have tons of stories/epics.
Liip SA Oct 22, 2012 | Page 16

17. Cone of uncertainty
Liip SA Oct 22, 2012 | Page 17

18. Problems with estimating
“The story is not defined well enough”
“The meeting is way too long”
“We spend too much time discussing small
stuff”
etc.
Liip SA Oct 22, 2012 | Page 18

19. Let’s just do it “rough”.
Let your gut speak!

20. Accuracy / Time
Liip SA Oct 22, 2012 | Page 20

21. A new technique :
Speed Estimates Sessions

22. 1) Write Epics
Be fast
Don’t be exhaustive
Details will be discussed later
If needed, Epics will split later
Liip SA Oct 22, 2012 | Page 22

23. 2) Get together
At least 2 devs are needed
1 hour meeting maximum
All stories/epics must be treated
The fibonnacci sequence from 0 to
50 is represented on the wall
(column entries)
Liip SA Oct 22, 2012 | Page 23

24. 3) Read and
paste
In silence!
10-15 minutes max
Each team member pastes each
card of his deck in the complexity
column of his choice.
Comprehension questions can be
asked to the POa/Bizdev.
“I don’t know” is ok as an answer,
if uncertain, estimate higher.
Liip SA Oct 22, 2012 | Page 24

25. 4) Disturb the
order
In silence!
10-15 minutes max
All team members are allowed to
move a story from one column to
another. When they do so, they
add a tick or dot on the card.
Liip SA Oct 22, 2012 | Page 25

26. 5) Discuss only
the relevant
In the remaining time (~30 min),
only the stories with maximum
ticks/dots will be discussed.
If needed, a standard planning
poker is done on these stories.
Liip SA Oct 22, 2012 | Page 26

27. Done! Thanks to this...
Bizdevs can estimate rough costs of project
parts
POs/POas can draw a plan with a macro view
(and never loose the “global picture” again)
POs can prioritize using the right metrics
right from the beginning
This leads to better expectation’s
management and therefore better client
satisfaction.
Liip SA Oct 22, 2012 | Page 27

28. Advices
Estimate a story / epic asap! Even if unfinished
Re-estimate as proper stories are created
Try estimating “a story a day” after the daily
Try integrating a measure of impacts an issue
has on dev work and user experience (L, M, H),
this will help the PO for priorization.
Be fast and listen to your gut!
Liip SA Oct 22, 2012 | Page 28

30. Thanks :)
And let’s Lean Forward