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Chapter 13
      Capital Budgeting
         Techniques
                     © Pearson Education Limited 2004
            Fundamentals of Financial Management, 12/e
              Created by: Gregory A. Kuhlemeyer, Ph.D.
                         Carroll College, Waukesha, WI
3-1
After studying Chapter 13,
         you should be able to:
      Understand the payback period (PBP) method of project evaluation and
      selection, including its: (a) calculation; (b) acceptance criterion; (c)
      advantages and disadvantages; and (d) focus on liquidity rather than
      profitability.
      Understand the three major discounted cash flow (DCF) methods of
      project evaluation and selection – internal rate of return (IRR), net
      present value (NPV), and profitability index (PI).
      Explain the calculation, acceptance criterion, and advantages (over the
      PBP method) for each of the three major DCF methods.
      Define, construct, and interpret a graph called an “NPV profile.”
      Understand why ranking project proposals on the basis of IRR, NPV, and
      PI methods “may” lead to conflicts in ranking.
      Describe the situations where ranking projects may be necessary and
      justify when to use either IRR, NPV, or PI rankings.
      Understand how “sensitivity analysis” allows us to challenge the single-
      point input estimates used in traditional capital budgeting analysis.
      Explain the role and process of project monitoring, including “progress
      reviews” and “post-completion audits.”
3-2
Capital Budgeting
       Techniques

      Project Evaluation and Selection
      Potential Difficulties
      Capital Rationing
      Project Monitoring
      Post-Completion Audit
3-3
Project Evaluation:
       Alternative Methods

      Payback Period (PBP)
      Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
      Net Present Value (NPV)
      Profitability Index (PI)


3-4
Proposed Project Data

      Julie Miller is evaluating a new project
        for her firm, Basket Wonders (BW).
       She has determined that the after-tax
          cash flows for the project will be
        $10,000; $12,000; $15,000; $10,000;
        and $7,000, respectively, for each of
         the Years 1 through 5. The initial
             cash outlay will be $40,000.
3-5
Independent Project
      For this project, assume that it is
      independent of any other potential
      projects that Basket Wonders may
      undertake.
      Independent -- A project whose
      acceptance (or rejection) does not
      prevent the acceptance of other
      projects under consideration.
3-6
Payback Period (PBP)

       0         1      2      3      4       5

      -40 K     10 K   12 K   15 K   10 K     7K


                 PBP is the period of time
               required for the cumulative
              expected cash flows from an
               investment project to equal
                  the initial cash outflow.
3-7
Payback Solution (#1)

        0           1       2         3 (a)     4        5

      -40 K (-b)   10 K    12 K      15 K      10 K(d)   7K
                   10 K    22 K      37 K(c)   47 K      54 K

      Cumulative
       Inflows            PBP     =a+(b-c)/d
                                  = 3 + (40 - 37) / 10
                                  = 3 + (3) / 10
                                  = 3.3 Years
3-8
Payback Solution (#2)

        0          1         2       3         4       5

      -40 K    10 K         12 K     15 K     10 K     7K
      -40 K   -30 K         -18 K    -3 K     7K      14 K


                   PBP       = 3 + ( 3K ) / 10K
      Cumulative             = 3.3 Years
      Cash Flows
                       Note: Take absolute value of last
                         negative cumulative cash flow
3-9                                 value.
PBP Acceptance Criterion
       The management of Basket Wonders
          has set a maximum PBP of 3.5
           years for projects of this type.
        Should this project be accepted?

       Yes! The firm will receive back the
        initial cash outlay in less than 3.5
        years. [3.3 Years < 3.5 Year Max.]

3-10
PBP Strengths
           and Weaknesses
        Strengths:          Weaknesses:
       Easy to use and      Does not account
        understand          for TVM
       Can be used as a     Does not consider
        measure of          cash flows beyond
        liquidity           the PBP
       Easier to forecast   Cutoff period is
3-11
        ST than LT flows    subjective
Internal Rate of Return (IRR)

       IRR is the discount rate that equates the
           present value of the future net cash
         flows from an investment project with
            the project’s initial cash outflow.


               CF1      CF2                 CFn
       ICO =          +           +...+
             (1+IRR) (1+IRR)2
                    1
                                          (1+IRR)n

3-12
IRR Solution

           $40,000 = $10,000   $12,000
                             +         +
                     (1+IRR)1 (1+IRR)2
                 $15,000   $10,000   $7,000
                         +         +
                 (1+IRR)3 (1+IRR)4 (1+IRR)5

       Find the interest rate (IRR) that causes the
         discounted cash flows to equal $40,000.
3-13
IRR Solution (Try 10%)

   $40,000 = $10,000(PVIF10%,1) + $12,000(PVIF10%,2) +
        $15,000(PVIF10%,3) + $10,000(PVIF10%,4) +        $
     7,000(PVIF10%,5)
   $40,000 = $10,000(.909) + $12,000(.826) +
             $15,000(.751) + $10,000(.683) +
             $ 7,000(.621)
   $40,000 = $9,090 + $9,912 + $11,265 +
             $6,830 + $4,347
           = $41,444    [Rate is too low!!]
3-14
IRR Solution (Try 15%)

   $40,000 = $10,000(PVIF15%,1) + $12,000(PVIF15%,2) +
        $15,000(PVIF15%,3) + $10,000(PVIF15%,4) +        $
     7,000(PVIF15%,5)
   $40,000 = $10,000(.870) + $12,000(.756) +
             $15,000(.658) + $10,000(.572) +
             $ 7,000(.497)
   $40,000 = $8,700 + $9,072 + $9,870 +
             $5,720 + $3,479
           = $36,841    [Rate is too high!!]
3-15
IRR Solution (Interpolate)

                 .10   $41,444
             X                   $1,444
       .05       IRR $40,000              $4,603
                 .15   $36,841


         X       $1,444
       .05   =   $4,603



3-16
IRR Solution (Interpolate)

                 .10   $41,444
             X                   $1,444
       .05       IRR $40,000              $4,603
                 .15   $36,841


         X       $1,444
       .05   =   $4,603



3-17
IRR Solution (Interpolate)

                    .10   $41,444
               X                    $1,444
         .05        IRR $40,000              $4,603
                    .15   $36,841


          X = ($1,444)(0.05)    X = .0157
                  $4,603
       IRR = .10 + .0157 = .1157 or 11.57%
3-18
IRR Acceptance Criterion
       The management of Basket Wonders
        has determined that the hurdle rate
          is 13% for projects of this type.
         Should this project be accepted?

        No! The firm will receive 11.57% for
       each dollar invested in this project at
        a cost of 13%. [ IRR < Hurdle Rate ]
3-19
IRRs on the Calculator

                   We will use the
                  cash flow registry
                   to solve the IRR
                   for this problem
                     quickly and
                      accurately!


3-20
Actual IRR Solution Using
             Your Financial Calculator

       Steps in the Process
       Step 1:     Press          CF                key
       Step 2:     Press          2nd  CLR Work     keys
       Step 3: For CF0 Press     -40000 Enter     ↓   keys
       Step 4:   For C01 Press   10000   Enter    ↓   keys
       Step 5:   For F01 Press     1     Enter    ↓   keys
       Step 6:   For C02 Press   12000   Enter    ↓   keys
       Step 7:   For F02 Press     1     Enter    ↓   keys
       Step 8: For C03 Press     15000   Enter    ↓   keys
3-21   Step 9: For F03 Press       1     Enter    ↓   keys
Actual IRR Solution Using
             Your Financial Calculator
       Steps in the Process (Part II)
       Step 10:For C04 Press   10000       Enter   ↓   keys
       Step 11:For F04 Press      1        Enter   ↓   keys
       Step 12:For C05 Press    7000       Enter   ↓   keys
       Step 13:For F05 Press      1        Enter   ↓   keys
       Step 14:   Press        ↓       ↓               keys
       Step 15:   Press        IRR                     key
       Step 16:   Press        CPT                     key


       Result:    Internal Rate of Return = 11.47%
3-22
IRR Strengths
            and Weaknesses
       Strengths:       Weaknesses:
        Accounts for    Assumes all cash
        TVM             flows reinvested at
                        the IRR
        Considers all
        cash flows      Difficulties with
                        project rankings and
        Less
        subjectivity    Multiple IRRs

3-23
Net Present Value (NPV)

          NPV is the present value of an
          investment project’s net cash
         flows minus the project’s initial
                  cash outflow.

              CF1          CF2            CFn
       NPV =          +            +...+        - ICO
             (1+k)1       (1+k)2         (1+k)n

3-24
NPV Solution
       Basket Wonders has determined that the
         appropriate discount rate (k) for this
                    project is 13%.
        NPV = $10,000 +$12,000 +$15,000 +
                (1.13)1 (1.13)2 (1.13)3
               $10,000 $7,000
                       4 +        5 - $40,000
                (1.13)     (1.13)

3-25
NPV Solution
       NPV = $10,000(PVIF13%,1) + $12,000(PVIF13%,2) +
             $15,000(PVIF13%,3) + $10,000(PVIF13%,4) +
             $ 7,000(PVIF13%,5) - $40,000
       NPV = $10,000(.885) + $12,000(.783) +
             $15,000(.693) + $10,000(.613) +
             $ 7,000(.543) - $40,000
       NPV = $8,850 + $9,396 + $10,395 +
             $6,130 + $3,801 - $40,000
            = - $1,428
3-26
NPV Acceptance Criterion
       The management of Basket Wonders
         has determined that the required
        rate is 13% for projects of this type.
         Should this project be accepted?

        No! The NPV is negative. This means
       that the project is reducing shareholder
              wealth. [Reject as NPV < 0 ]
3-27
NPV on the Calculator

                 We will use the cash
                 flow registry to solve
                    the NPV for this
                 problem quickly and
                      accurately!

                 Hint: If you have not
                 cleared the cash flows
                 from your calculator, then
                 you may skip to Step 15.
3-28
Actual NPV Solution Using
             Your Financial Calculator

       Steps in the Process
       Step 1:     Press          CF                key
       Step 2:     Press          2nd  CLR Work     keys
       Step 3: For CF0 Press     -40000 Enter     ↓   keys
       Step 4:   For C01 Press   10000   Enter    ↓   keys
       Step 5:   For F01 Press     1     Enter    ↓   keys
       Step 6:   For C02 Press   12000   Enter    ↓   keys
       Step 7:   For F02 Press     1     Enter    ↓   keys
       Step 8: For C03 Press     15000   Enter    ↓   keys
3-29   Step 9: For F03 Press       1     Enter    ↓   keys
Actual NPV Solution Using
             Your Financial Calculator
       Steps in the Process (Part II)
       Step 10:For C04 Press    10000       Enter       ↓     keys
       Step 11:For F04 Press       1        Enter       ↓     keys
       Step 12:For C05 Press     7000       Enter       ↓     keys
       Step 13:For F05 Press       1        Enter       ↓     keys
       Step 14:    Press        ↓       ↓                   keys
       Step 15:    Press        NPV                         key
       Step 16: For I=, Enter   13      Enter       ↓       keys
       Step 17:    Press        CPT                         key
       Result:     Net Present Value = -$1,424.42
3-30
NPV Strengths
           and Weaknesses
       Strengths:          Weaknesses:
       Cash flows          May not include
       assumed to be       managerial
       reinvested at the   options embedded
       hurdle rate.        in the project. See
                           Chapter 14.
       Accounts for TVM.
       Considers all
3-31
       cash flows.
Net Present Value Profile
                      $000s          Sum of CF’s                 Plot NPV for each
                       15                                          discount rate.
       Net Present Value




                                             Thre
                                                 e   of th
                           10                             e   se p
                                                                  oint
                                                                         s ar
                                                                                e ea
                                                                                    sy n
                           5                              IRR                              ow!
                                                                   NPV@13%
                           0
                           -4
                                0     3     6      9      12             15
                                           Discount Rate (%)
3-32
Creating NPV Profiles
       Using the Calculator

                 Hint: As long as you
                   do not “clear” the
                  cash flows from the
                 registry, simply start
                  at Step 15 and enter
                  a different discount
                  rate. Each resulting
                   NPV will provide a
                 “point” for your NPV
                         Profile!
3-33
Profitability Index (PI)

          PI is the ratio of the present value of
           a project’s future net cash flows to
            the project’s initial cash outflow.
   Method #1:
                 CF1          CF2           CFn
          PI =           +          +...+          ICO
               (1+k)1        (1+k)2       (1+k)n
                              << OR >>
        Method #2:
                     PI = 1 + [ NPV / ICO ]
3-34
PI Acceptance Criterion
              PI   = $38,572 / $40,000
                   = .9643 (Method #1, 13-34)

          Should this project be accepted?

         No! The PI is less than 1.00. This
       means that the project is not profitable.
                [Reject as PI < 1.00 ]
3-35
PI Strengths
           and Weaknesses

       Strengths:        Weaknesses:
       Same as NPV       Same as NPV
       Allows            Provides only
       comparison of     relative profitability
       different scale   Potential Ranking
       projects          Problems
3-36
Evaluation Summary

       Basket Wonders Independent Project
       Method Project Comparison Decision
        PBP     3.3       3.5      Accept
        IRR   11.47%     13%       Reject
        NPV   -$1,424     $0       Reject
         PI     .96      1.00      Reject
3-37
Other Project
         Relationships
       Dependent -- A project whose
       acceptance depends on the
       acceptance of one or more other
       projects.
       Mutually Exclusive -- A project
       whose acceptance precludes the
       acceptance of one or more
       alternative projects.
3-38
Potential Problems
          Under Mutual Exclusivity
       Ranking of project proposals may
         create contradictory results.

          A. Scale of Investment
          B. Cash-flow Pattern
          C. Project Life

3-39
A. Scale Differences
           Compare a small (S) and a
              large (L) project.

                         NET CASH FLOWS
       END OF YEAR     Project S Project L
           0            -$100    -$100,000
           1               0            0
           2             $400     $156,250
3-40
Scale Differences
       Calculate the PBP, IRR, NPV@10%,
                   and PI@10%.
        Which project is preferred? Why?
       Project    IRR    NPV       PI

         S       100%   $   231   3.31
         L        25%   $29,132   1.29
3-41
B. Cash Flow Pattern
         Let us compare a decreasing cash-flow (D)
       project and an increasing cash-flow (I) project.

                                 NET CASH FLOWS
        END OF YEAR            Project D Project I
            0                   -$1,200   -$1,200
            1                     1,000       100
            2                       500       600
            3                       100     1,080
3-42
Cash Flow Pattern
       Calculate the IRR, NPV@10%,
               and PI@10%.
       Which project is preferred?

       Project   IRR    NPV      PI
         D       23%   $198    1.17
         I       17%   $198    1.17
3-43
600        Examine NPV Profiles
                                                                 Plot NPV for each
       Net Present Value ($)




                                                                 project at various
                                           Project I              discount rates.
                               400




                                                       NPV@10%
                               200




                                                              IRR

                                                                       Project D
                               0
                               -200




                                      0     5     10     15     20    25
                                                  Discount Rate (%)
3-44
600
           Net Present Value ($)
                                    Fisher’s Rate of Intersection


                                          At k<10%, I is best!     Fisher’s Rate of
                                                                     Intersection
       -200 0 200 400




                                                                 At k>10%, D is best!




                              0       5        10     15     20        25
                                               Discount Rate ($)
3-45
C. Project Life Differences
         Let us compare a long life (X) project
               and a short life (Y) project.

                               NET CASH FLOWS
       END OF YEAR           Project X Project Y
           0                  -$1,000   -$1,000
           1                        0     2,000
           2                        0         0
           3                    3,375         0
3-46
Project Life Differences

       Calculate the PBP, IRR, NPV@10%,
                  and PI@10%.
       Which project is preferred? Why?
         Project     IRR    NPV     PI

         X           50%   $1,536   2.54
         Y          100%   $ 818    1.82

3-47
Another Way to
                 Look at Things
       1.     Adjust cash flows to a common terminal
              year if project “Y” will NOT be replaced.
              Compound Project Y, Year 1 @10% for 2 years.

       Year            0        1          2           3
       CF        -$1,000      $0           $0      $2,420

            Results:       IRR* = 34.26%    NPV = $818
       *Lower IRR from adjusted cash-flow stream. X is still Best.
3-48
Replacing Projects
                  with Identical Projects
       2.       Use Replacement Chain Approach (Appendix B)
                when project “Y” will be replaced.
            0                1               2           3

       -$1,000             $2,000
                           -1,000         $2,000
                                          -1,000       $2,000
       -$1,000             $1,000         $1,000       $2,000
                Results:     IRR = 100%    NPV* = $2,238.17
                 *Higher NPV, but the same IRR. Y is Best.
                                                     Best
3-49
Capital Rationing
          Capital Rationing occurs when a
       constraint (or budget ceiling) is placed
       on the total size of capital expenditures
              during a particular period.
       Example: Julie Miller must determine what
       investment opportunities to undertake for
       Basket Wonders (BW). She is limited to a
       maximum expenditure of $32,500 only for
       this capital budgeting period.
3-50
Available Projects for BW
       Project       ICO   IRR        NPV      PI
          A      $  500    18%   $       50   1.10
          B       5,000    25         6,500   2.30
          C       5,000    37         5,500   2.10
          D       7,500    20         5,000   1.67
          E      12,500    26           500   1.04
          F      15,000    28        21,000   2.40
          G      17,500    19         7,500   1.43
          H      25,000    15         6,000   1.24
3-51
Choosing by IRRs for BW
       Project     ICO       IRR        NPV      PI
           C     $ 5,000    37%       $ 5,500    2.10
           F      15,000    28         21,000    2.40
           E      12,500    26            500    1.04
           B       5,000    25          6,500    2.30
                 Projects C, F, and E have the
                     three largest IRRs.
       The resulting increase in shareholder wealth
             is $27,000 with a $32,500 outlay.
3-52
Choosing by NPVs for BW
       Project     ICO     IRR        NPV      PI
           F     $15,000   28%       $21,000   2.40
           G      17,500   19          7,500   1.43
           B       5,000   25          6,500   2.30
            Projects F and G have the
                 two largest NPVs.
       The resulting increase in shareholder wealth
             is $28,500 with a $32,500 outlay.
3-53
Choosing by PIs for BW
        Project    ICO       IRR         NPV       PI
          F      $15,000      28%       $21,000   2.40
          B        5,000      25          6,500   2.30
          C        5,000      37          5,500   2.10
          D        7,500      20          5,000   1.67
          G       17,500      19          7,500   1.43
       Projects F, B, C, and D have the four largest PIs.
       The resulting increase in shareholder wealth is
               $38,000 with a $32,500 outlay.
3-54
Summary of Comparison
       Method Projects Accepted     Value Added
         PI      F, B, C, and D       $38,000
        NPV         F and G           $28,500
        IRR       C, F, and E         $27,000

         PI generates the greatest increase in
       shareholder wealth when a limited capital
           budget exists for a single period.
3-55
Single-Point Estimate
              and Sensitivity Analysis
       Sensitivity Analysis: A type of “what-if”
                   Analysis
        uncertainty analysis in which variables or
        assumptions are changed from a base case in
        order to determine their impact on a project’s
        measured results (such as NPV or IRR).
         Allows us to change from “single-point” (i.e.,
         revenue, installation cost, salvage, etc.) estimates
         to a “what if” analysis
         Utilize a “base-case” to compare the impact of
         individual variable changes
            E.g., Change forecasted sales units to see
            impact on the project’s NPV

3-56
Post-Completion Audit
                Post-completion Audit
       A formal comparison of the actual costs and
       benefits of a project with original estimates.

              Identify any project weaknesses
        Develop a possible set of corrective actions
                Provide appropriate feedback
       Result: Making better future decisions!
3-57
Multiple IRR Problem*
       Let us assume the following cash flow
        pattern for a project for Years 0 to 4:
            -$100 +$100 +$900 -$1,000
        How many potential IRRs could this
                   project have?
        Two!! There are as many potential
         IRRs as there are sign changes.
                             * Refer to Appendix A
3-58
NPV Profile -- Multiple IRRs

                           75                              Multiple IRRs at
       Net Present Value




                                                       k = 12.95% and 191.15%
                           50
            ($000s)




                           25

                           0

                  -100
                                0     40     80    120    160   200
                                           Discount Rate (%)
3-59
NPV Profile -- Multiple IRRs

                  Hint: Your calculator
                     will only find ONE
                    IRR – even if there
                   are multiple IRRs. It
                      will give you the
                    lowest IRR. In this
                       case, 12.95%.



3-60

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CAPITAL BUDGETING TECHNIQUES

  • 1. Chapter 13 Capital Budgeting Techniques © Pearson Education Limited 2004 Fundamentals of Financial Management, 12/e Created by: Gregory A. Kuhlemeyer, Ph.D. Carroll College, Waukesha, WI 3-1
  • 2. After studying Chapter 13, you should be able to: Understand the payback period (PBP) method of project evaluation and selection, including its: (a) calculation; (b) acceptance criterion; (c) advantages and disadvantages; and (d) focus on liquidity rather than profitability. Understand the three major discounted cash flow (DCF) methods of project evaluation and selection – internal rate of return (IRR), net present value (NPV), and profitability index (PI). Explain the calculation, acceptance criterion, and advantages (over the PBP method) for each of the three major DCF methods. Define, construct, and interpret a graph called an “NPV profile.” Understand why ranking project proposals on the basis of IRR, NPV, and PI methods “may” lead to conflicts in ranking. Describe the situations where ranking projects may be necessary and justify when to use either IRR, NPV, or PI rankings. Understand how “sensitivity analysis” allows us to challenge the single- point input estimates used in traditional capital budgeting analysis. Explain the role and process of project monitoring, including “progress reviews” and “post-completion audits.” 3-2
  • 3. Capital Budgeting Techniques Project Evaluation and Selection Potential Difficulties Capital Rationing Project Monitoring Post-Completion Audit 3-3
  • 4. Project Evaluation: Alternative Methods Payback Period (PBP) Internal Rate of Return (IRR) Net Present Value (NPV) Profitability Index (PI) 3-4
  • 5. Proposed Project Data Julie Miller is evaluating a new project for her firm, Basket Wonders (BW). She has determined that the after-tax cash flows for the project will be $10,000; $12,000; $15,000; $10,000; and $7,000, respectively, for each of the Years 1 through 5. The initial cash outlay will be $40,000. 3-5
  • 6. Independent Project For this project, assume that it is independent of any other potential projects that Basket Wonders may undertake. Independent -- A project whose acceptance (or rejection) does not prevent the acceptance of other projects under consideration. 3-6
  • 7. Payback Period (PBP) 0 1 2 3 4 5 -40 K 10 K 12 K 15 K 10 K 7K PBP is the period of time required for the cumulative expected cash flows from an investment project to equal the initial cash outflow. 3-7
  • 8. Payback Solution (#1) 0 1 2 3 (a) 4 5 -40 K (-b) 10 K 12 K 15 K 10 K(d) 7K 10 K 22 K 37 K(c) 47 K 54 K Cumulative Inflows PBP =a+(b-c)/d = 3 + (40 - 37) / 10 = 3 + (3) / 10 = 3.3 Years 3-8
  • 9. Payback Solution (#2) 0 1 2 3 4 5 -40 K 10 K 12 K 15 K 10 K 7K -40 K -30 K -18 K -3 K 7K 14 K PBP = 3 + ( 3K ) / 10K Cumulative = 3.3 Years Cash Flows Note: Take absolute value of last negative cumulative cash flow 3-9 value.
  • 10. PBP Acceptance Criterion The management of Basket Wonders has set a maximum PBP of 3.5 years for projects of this type. Should this project be accepted? Yes! The firm will receive back the initial cash outlay in less than 3.5 years. [3.3 Years < 3.5 Year Max.] 3-10
  • 11. PBP Strengths and Weaknesses Strengths: Weaknesses: Easy to use and Does not account understand for TVM Can be used as a Does not consider measure of cash flows beyond liquidity the PBP Easier to forecast Cutoff period is 3-11 ST than LT flows subjective
  • 12. Internal Rate of Return (IRR) IRR is the discount rate that equates the present value of the future net cash flows from an investment project with the project’s initial cash outflow. CF1 CF2 CFn ICO = + +...+ (1+IRR) (1+IRR)2 1 (1+IRR)n 3-12
  • 13. IRR Solution $40,000 = $10,000 $12,000 + + (1+IRR)1 (1+IRR)2 $15,000 $10,000 $7,000 + + (1+IRR)3 (1+IRR)4 (1+IRR)5 Find the interest rate (IRR) that causes the discounted cash flows to equal $40,000. 3-13
  • 14. IRR Solution (Try 10%) $40,000 = $10,000(PVIF10%,1) + $12,000(PVIF10%,2) + $15,000(PVIF10%,3) + $10,000(PVIF10%,4) + $ 7,000(PVIF10%,5) $40,000 = $10,000(.909) + $12,000(.826) + $15,000(.751) + $10,000(.683) + $ 7,000(.621) $40,000 = $9,090 + $9,912 + $11,265 + $6,830 + $4,347 = $41,444 [Rate is too low!!] 3-14
  • 15. IRR Solution (Try 15%) $40,000 = $10,000(PVIF15%,1) + $12,000(PVIF15%,2) + $15,000(PVIF15%,3) + $10,000(PVIF15%,4) + $ 7,000(PVIF15%,5) $40,000 = $10,000(.870) + $12,000(.756) + $15,000(.658) + $10,000(.572) + $ 7,000(.497) $40,000 = $8,700 + $9,072 + $9,870 + $5,720 + $3,479 = $36,841 [Rate is too high!!] 3-15
  • 16. IRR Solution (Interpolate) .10 $41,444 X $1,444 .05 IRR $40,000 $4,603 .15 $36,841 X $1,444 .05 = $4,603 3-16
  • 17. IRR Solution (Interpolate) .10 $41,444 X $1,444 .05 IRR $40,000 $4,603 .15 $36,841 X $1,444 .05 = $4,603 3-17
  • 18. IRR Solution (Interpolate) .10 $41,444 X $1,444 .05 IRR $40,000 $4,603 .15 $36,841 X = ($1,444)(0.05) X = .0157 $4,603 IRR = .10 + .0157 = .1157 or 11.57% 3-18
  • 19. IRR Acceptance Criterion The management of Basket Wonders has determined that the hurdle rate is 13% for projects of this type. Should this project be accepted? No! The firm will receive 11.57% for each dollar invested in this project at a cost of 13%. [ IRR < Hurdle Rate ] 3-19
  • 20. IRRs on the Calculator We will use the cash flow registry to solve the IRR for this problem quickly and accurately! 3-20
  • 21. Actual IRR Solution Using Your Financial Calculator Steps in the Process Step 1: Press CF key Step 2: Press 2nd CLR Work keys Step 3: For CF0 Press -40000 Enter ↓ keys Step 4: For C01 Press 10000 Enter ↓ keys Step 5: For F01 Press 1 Enter ↓ keys Step 6: For C02 Press 12000 Enter ↓ keys Step 7: For F02 Press 1 Enter ↓ keys Step 8: For C03 Press 15000 Enter ↓ keys 3-21 Step 9: For F03 Press 1 Enter ↓ keys
  • 22. Actual IRR Solution Using Your Financial Calculator Steps in the Process (Part II) Step 10:For C04 Press 10000 Enter ↓ keys Step 11:For F04 Press 1 Enter ↓ keys Step 12:For C05 Press 7000 Enter ↓ keys Step 13:For F05 Press 1 Enter ↓ keys Step 14: Press ↓ ↓ keys Step 15: Press IRR key Step 16: Press CPT key Result: Internal Rate of Return = 11.47% 3-22
  • 23. IRR Strengths and Weaknesses Strengths: Weaknesses: Accounts for Assumes all cash TVM flows reinvested at the IRR Considers all cash flows Difficulties with project rankings and Less subjectivity Multiple IRRs 3-23
  • 24. Net Present Value (NPV) NPV is the present value of an investment project’s net cash flows minus the project’s initial cash outflow. CF1 CF2 CFn NPV = + +...+ - ICO (1+k)1 (1+k)2 (1+k)n 3-24
  • 25. NPV Solution Basket Wonders has determined that the appropriate discount rate (k) for this project is 13%. NPV = $10,000 +$12,000 +$15,000 + (1.13)1 (1.13)2 (1.13)3 $10,000 $7,000 4 + 5 - $40,000 (1.13) (1.13) 3-25
  • 26. NPV Solution NPV = $10,000(PVIF13%,1) + $12,000(PVIF13%,2) + $15,000(PVIF13%,3) + $10,000(PVIF13%,4) + $ 7,000(PVIF13%,5) - $40,000 NPV = $10,000(.885) + $12,000(.783) + $15,000(.693) + $10,000(.613) + $ 7,000(.543) - $40,000 NPV = $8,850 + $9,396 + $10,395 + $6,130 + $3,801 - $40,000 = - $1,428 3-26
  • 27. NPV Acceptance Criterion The management of Basket Wonders has determined that the required rate is 13% for projects of this type. Should this project be accepted? No! The NPV is negative. This means that the project is reducing shareholder wealth. [Reject as NPV < 0 ] 3-27
  • 28. NPV on the Calculator We will use the cash flow registry to solve the NPV for this problem quickly and accurately! Hint: If you have not cleared the cash flows from your calculator, then you may skip to Step 15. 3-28
  • 29. Actual NPV Solution Using Your Financial Calculator Steps in the Process Step 1: Press CF key Step 2: Press 2nd CLR Work keys Step 3: For CF0 Press -40000 Enter ↓ keys Step 4: For C01 Press 10000 Enter ↓ keys Step 5: For F01 Press 1 Enter ↓ keys Step 6: For C02 Press 12000 Enter ↓ keys Step 7: For F02 Press 1 Enter ↓ keys Step 8: For C03 Press 15000 Enter ↓ keys 3-29 Step 9: For F03 Press 1 Enter ↓ keys
  • 30. Actual NPV Solution Using Your Financial Calculator Steps in the Process (Part II) Step 10:For C04 Press 10000 Enter ↓ keys Step 11:For F04 Press 1 Enter ↓ keys Step 12:For C05 Press 7000 Enter ↓ keys Step 13:For F05 Press 1 Enter ↓ keys Step 14: Press ↓ ↓ keys Step 15: Press NPV key Step 16: For I=, Enter 13 Enter ↓ keys Step 17: Press CPT key Result: Net Present Value = -$1,424.42 3-30
  • 31. NPV Strengths and Weaknesses Strengths: Weaknesses: Cash flows May not include assumed to be managerial reinvested at the options embedded hurdle rate. in the project. See Chapter 14. Accounts for TVM. Considers all 3-31 cash flows.
  • 32. Net Present Value Profile $000s Sum of CF’s Plot NPV for each 15 discount rate. Net Present Value Thre e of th 10 e se p oint s ar e ea sy n 5 IRR ow! NPV@13% 0 -4 0 3 6 9 12 15 Discount Rate (%) 3-32
  • 33. Creating NPV Profiles Using the Calculator Hint: As long as you do not “clear” the cash flows from the registry, simply start at Step 15 and enter a different discount rate. Each resulting NPV will provide a “point” for your NPV Profile! 3-33
  • 34. Profitability Index (PI) PI is the ratio of the present value of a project’s future net cash flows to the project’s initial cash outflow. Method #1: CF1 CF2 CFn PI = + +...+ ICO (1+k)1 (1+k)2 (1+k)n << OR >> Method #2: PI = 1 + [ NPV / ICO ] 3-34
  • 35. PI Acceptance Criterion PI = $38,572 / $40,000 = .9643 (Method #1, 13-34) Should this project be accepted? No! The PI is less than 1.00. This means that the project is not profitable. [Reject as PI < 1.00 ] 3-35
  • 36. PI Strengths and Weaknesses Strengths: Weaknesses: Same as NPV Same as NPV Allows Provides only comparison of relative profitability different scale Potential Ranking projects Problems 3-36
  • 37. Evaluation Summary Basket Wonders Independent Project Method Project Comparison Decision PBP 3.3 3.5 Accept IRR 11.47% 13% Reject NPV -$1,424 $0 Reject PI .96 1.00 Reject 3-37
  • 38. Other Project Relationships Dependent -- A project whose acceptance depends on the acceptance of one or more other projects. Mutually Exclusive -- A project whose acceptance precludes the acceptance of one or more alternative projects. 3-38
  • 39. Potential Problems Under Mutual Exclusivity Ranking of project proposals may create contradictory results. A. Scale of Investment B. Cash-flow Pattern C. Project Life 3-39
  • 40. A. Scale Differences Compare a small (S) and a large (L) project. NET CASH FLOWS END OF YEAR Project S Project L 0 -$100 -$100,000 1 0 0 2 $400 $156,250 3-40
  • 41. Scale Differences Calculate the PBP, IRR, NPV@10%, and PI@10%. Which project is preferred? Why? Project IRR NPV PI S 100% $ 231 3.31 L 25% $29,132 1.29 3-41
  • 42. B. Cash Flow Pattern Let us compare a decreasing cash-flow (D) project and an increasing cash-flow (I) project. NET CASH FLOWS END OF YEAR Project D Project I 0 -$1,200 -$1,200 1 1,000 100 2 500 600 3 100 1,080 3-42
  • 43. Cash Flow Pattern Calculate the IRR, NPV@10%, and PI@10%. Which project is preferred? Project IRR NPV PI D 23% $198 1.17 I 17% $198 1.17 3-43
  • 44. 600 Examine NPV Profiles Plot NPV for each Net Present Value ($) project at various Project I discount rates. 400 NPV@10% 200 IRR Project D 0 -200 0 5 10 15 20 25 Discount Rate (%) 3-44
  • 45. 600 Net Present Value ($) Fisher’s Rate of Intersection At k<10%, I is best! Fisher’s Rate of Intersection -200 0 200 400 At k>10%, D is best! 0 5 10 15 20 25 Discount Rate ($) 3-45
  • 46. C. Project Life Differences Let us compare a long life (X) project and a short life (Y) project. NET CASH FLOWS END OF YEAR Project X Project Y 0 -$1,000 -$1,000 1 0 2,000 2 0 0 3 3,375 0 3-46
  • 47. Project Life Differences Calculate the PBP, IRR, NPV@10%, and PI@10%. Which project is preferred? Why? Project IRR NPV PI X 50% $1,536 2.54 Y 100% $ 818 1.82 3-47
  • 48. Another Way to Look at Things 1. Adjust cash flows to a common terminal year if project “Y” will NOT be replaced. Compound Project Y, Year 1 @10% for 2 years. Year 0 1 2 3 CF -$1,000 $0 $0 $2,420 Results: IRR* = 34.26% NPV = $818 *Lower IRR from adjusted cash-flow stream. X is still Best. 3-48
  • 49. Replacing Projects with Identical Projects 2. Use Replacement Chain Approach (Appendix B) when project “Y” will be replaced. 0 1 2 3 -$1,000 $2,000 -1,000 $2,000 -1,000 $2,000 -$1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $2,000 Results: IRR = 100% NPV* = $2,238.17 *Higher NPV, but the same IRR. Y is Best. Best 3-49
  • 50. Capital Rationing Capital Rationing occurs when a constraint (or budget ceiling) is placed on the total size of capital expenditures during a particular period. Example: Julie Miller must determine what investment opportunities to undertake for Basket Wonders (BW). She is limited to a maximum expenditure of $32,500 only for this capital budgeting period. 3-50
  • 51. Available Projects for BW Project ICO IRR NPV PI A $ 500 18% $ 50 1.10 B 5,000 25 6,500 2.30 C 5,000 37 5,500 2.10 D 7,500 20 5,000 1.67 E 12,500 26 500 1.04 F 15,000 28 21,000 2.40 G 17,500 19 7,500 1.43 H 25,000 15 6,000 1.24 3-51
  • 52. Choosing by IRRs for BW Project ICO IRR NPV PI C $ 5,000 37% $ 5,500 2.10 F 15,000 28 21,000 2.40 E 12,500 26 500 1.04 B 5,000 25 6,500 2.30 Projects C, F, and E have the three largest IRRs. The resulting increase in shareholder wealth is $27,000 with a $32,500 outlay. 3-52
  • 53. Choosing by NPVs for BW Project ICO IRR NPV PI F $15,000 28% $21,000 2.40 G 17,500 19 7,500 1.43 B 5,000 25 6,500 2.30 Projects F and G have the two largest NPVs. The resulting increase in shareholder wealth is $28,500 with a $32,500 outlay. 3-53
  • 54. Choosing by PIs for BW Project ICO IRR NPV PI F $15,000 28% $21,000 2.40 B 5,000 25 6,500 2.30 C 5,000 37 5,500 2.10 D 7,500 20 5,000 1.67 G 17,500 19 7,500 1.43 Projects F, B, C, and D have the four largest PIs. The resulting increase in shareholder wealth is $38,000 with a $32,500 outlay. 3-54
  • 55. Summary of Comparison Method Projects Accepted Value Added PI F, B, C, and D $38,000 NPV F and G $28,500 IRR C, F, and E $27,000 PI generates the greatest increase in shareholder wealth when a limited capital budget exists for a single period. 3-55
  • 56. Single-Point Estimate and Sensitivity Analysis Sensitivity Analysis: A type of “what-if” Analysis uncertainty analysis in which variables or assumptions are changed from a base case in order to determine their impact on a project’s measured results (such as NPV or IRR). Allows us to change from “single-point” (i.e., revenue, installation cost, salvage, etc.) estimates to a “what if” analysis Utilize a “base-case” to compare the impact of individual variable changes E.g., Change forecasted sales units to see impact on the project’s NPV 3-56
  • 57. Post-Completion Audit Post-completion Audit A formal comparison of the actual costs and benefits of a project with original estimates. Identify any project weaknesses Develop a possible set of corrective actions Provide appropriate feedback Result: Making better future decisions! 3-57
  • 58. Multiple IRR Problem* Let us assume the following cash flow pattern for a project for Years 0 to 4: -$100 +$100 +$900 -$1,000 How many potential IRRs could this project have? Two!! There are as many potential IRRs as there are sign changes. * Refer to Appendix A 3-58
  • 59. NPV Profile -- Multiple IRRs 75 Multiple IRRs at Net Present Value k = 12.95% and 191.15% 50 ($000s) 25 0 -100 0 40 80 120 160 200 Discount Rate (%) 3-59
  • 60. NPV Profile -- Multiple IRRs Hint: Your calculator will only find ONE IRR – even if there are multiple IRRs. It will give you the lowest IRR. In this case, 12.95%. 3-60