1. The Application of Austrian Business Cycle Theory by Gregory B. Christainsen Las Vegas, April 7, 2003 The Great Depression and Recent Cycles in the US and Japan

3. A Metaphor: Pour in Honey P K P C

8. Stock Prices Before and During the Great Depression 1922 1929 1933 S & P Composite Index CPI S & P

9. Share Prices: Japan vs. US CPI-Japan

10. Capital Goods vs. Consumption Goods (US)

11. Money and Prices: Broad Measures

13. Jerry Jordan’s Dissent, May 1998 “ Mr. Jordan...noted that the monetary and credit aggregates had accelerated further from already rapid growth rates in 1997. In his view, these high growth rates were fueling unsustainably rapid increases of real estate and other asset prices ... the Committee would face a choice between smaller increases in interest rates sooner versus larger increases later.”

14. November Dissent “ Mr. Jordan dissented because he believed that the two recent reductions in the Federal funds rate were sufficient responses to the stresses in financial markets that had emerged suddenly in late August. An additional rate reduction risked fueling an unsustainably strong growth rate of domestic demand. ”

15. 1999: A Tiger by the Tail [Despite 3 Rate Hikes; Note Y2K]

17. 2001-2002: Go-Stop-Go Amidst Deflationary Pressures

19. Housing Price Bubble? 1975 1995 2002 HOUSING CONSUMER GOODS