Rise of Middle Class
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Presentation at Marcus evans "Introducing New Pharma Products Into Emerging BRIC Markets" conference,London,April 2012 on Rise of Middle Class
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Rise of Middle Class
- 1. The rise of middle class Satya MAHESH, India 17th April 2012, London
- 2. Disclaimer The views expressed in this message are made in an individual capacity and do not necessarily reflect those of Sanofi (the “company”) or any of its affiliates. Neither the company nor any of its affiliates assumes any responsibility or liability of any use which may be made of any views expressed here in.
- 3. Change is a Cliché 3
- 4. but ,the Speed of Change is not… 5 Million Years 250 Years 5 Mio years ago the first modern humans appeared / 500,000 years ago - Homo sapiens / 50,000 years ago agriculture started / 5,000 years ago moved into towns and cities./ 500 years ago : Industrial revolution or mass production (Printing Press) – 30 years ago Information Age Each era lasted for one tenth of previous era !!!
- 5. Future - not a linear extrapolation of the past Trends may show the path Image from FMSI web site (Financial Management solutions Inc)
- 6. Increase of population Increase of population under democracies under democracies More hands to earn.. fewer mouths to feed Money begets money Vicious to Virtuous
- 7. The Indian ‘Palmystery’ Health Wealth Happiness
- 8. A dash of stats… Health Population Wealth Gapminder
- 9. Wealth to Health or Vice Versa? Gapminder
- 10. Wealth to Health or Vice Versa? Gapminder
- 11. State of nations Gapminder
- 13. Individually poor – Collectively middle class Individually middle class – Collectively Rich Gapminder
- 14. Exercises more consumer rights than civil rights Pay cheque to pay cheque Education, family house, Manager or Professional White collar Job Who are middle class ?
- 15. Ask ten economists , get eleven answers Absolute Relative Earning Consumption Individual Household Define the purpose
- 16. Per Capita earning of $2 - $ 13 / Day Ravallion Earning Per capita earning of $10 - $ 20 / Day World Bank Per capita earning of $16 - $80 / Day Goldman sachs includes those earning more than $10 a day, but excludes those in the top 5 percent of the income distribution Birdsall (2010) $2 and $10 per person per day consumption Banerjee and Duflo (2007) Consumption 1/3 of income left for discretionary spendingn Dilip K. Das Income interval from 75% to 125% of the median Thurow (1987) $5K - $15K Disposable Income/ Yr Euromonitor who could routinely buy items sold at a typical Western-type discount store Miller-McCune ( 2008)
- 17. Is this the BRICs Decade ? Gold man Sachs Publication May ,2010
- 18. Poor Middle Class Rich Money To be used To be managed To be invested Food Quantity Quality Presentation Time Present Future Traditions and History Imp for making Education Valued and Revered Crucial connections Driving Survival, Relationships Work & Financial , Political & Forces & Entertainment Achievement Social connections Ruby Payne, A Framework for Understanding Poverty, Highlands, TX: aha! Process, Inc.,1996 pp. 42 - 43
- 19. Leapfrog the paths Can differentiate cheap.. Economical and premium Guarded…Saving Modern yet ,traditional
- 20. !ndia Shifting brahminical restraint 3Cs: Cable TV ,Cinema & Cricket More mobiles than toilets (not just mobile..FM,Calc,time) Middle Class Car Tata Nano? Time Cover Photo by Arthur Hochstein. Woman by hill street studios-getty images blend collection
- 21. Global Middle Class MC Population in Mios 2009 2020 2030 2009 2020 2030 Middle class Asia Pacific 525 1,740 3,228 28% 54% 66% Population Europe 664 703 680 36% 22% 14% North America 338 333 322 18% 10% 7% Central and South America 181 251 313 10% 8% 6% Middle east and North Africa 105 165 234 6% 5% 5% Sub -Saharan Africa 32 57 107 2% 2% 2% World 1,845 3,249 4,884 100% 100% 100% Mio of 2005 PPP $ 2009 2020 2030 2009 2020 2030 Middle class Asia Pacific 4,952 14,798 32,596 23% 42% 59% Spending Europe 8,138 10,301 11,337 38% 29% 20% North America 5,602 5,863 5,837 26% 17% 10% Central and South America 1,534 2,315 3,117 7% 7% 6% Middle east and North Africa 796 1,321 1,966 4% 4% 4% Sub -Saharan Africa 256 448 827 1% 1% 1% World 21,278 35,046 55,680 100% 100% 100%
- 22. Future : Wave of Consumption The emerging middle class in developing countries : Homi Kharas
- 23. Medicine and middle class
- 24. Disease does not discriminate Awareness and Affordability Individual Income Vs. Family Income
- 25. Near dry pipe lines Price pressures even in mature markets Few innovative mols. Vs. Essential drugs
- 27. The next 4 Billion : GEM Growing Emerging Middle
- 28. Urban - Rural divide of GEMs Middle Class GEM 74% of Urban 41% of Population Population 26% of Rural 59 % of Population Population
- 29. Strategic imperatives…. Value Volume Urban Rural Life Style Life
- 30. What organizations can do? Play across tiers and SE Strata Interdependent High Quality – Low Cost Socially sustainable Business models Ideal Admixture Many small Vs few Big brands Share Opportunities Volumes will bring Values , costs and profits
- 31. Improve Trust 2012 Edelman trust barometer
- 32. Individual and references & Image Credits My Wife, Syamala and My collegues M/S Amlesh Ranjan , Venkatesan Subramanian and Parthasarathy Marcus evans and Sponsors Bio Portfolio Gapminder Photographs from various unknown artists, CIA Fact book Profitable growth strategies for the Global Emerging Middle by PWC The emerging middle class in developing countries : Homi Kharas 2012 Edelman trust barometer Many more references books , articles from Google search
- 34. Backup
- 35. GDP BRICs CIA World Fact Book
- 36. Population Dynamics CIA World Fact Book
- 37. Healthcare in BRICs CIA World Fact Book
- 38. Middle Class Ethos : Brazil Relationships Diverse n Multi ethnic Individual Loyalty Hierarchy
- 39. Middle Class Ethos : Russia Independent Russian and Non Russian Intellect Adherence to Order Community over Individual
- 40. Middle Class Ethos : India Knowledge for Money Spirituality and Modesty Joint Families and Loyalty Hierarchy Jugad
- 41. Middle Class Ethos : China Family : Valued Society over Individual Relationships and Reciprocity Hierarchy : Patriarch Morality in life: Confucius
- 42. Brazil : Health and Wealth last 200 Years
- 43. Russia : Health and Wealth last 200 Years
- 44. India : Health and Wealth last 200 Years
- 45. China : Health and Wealth last 200 Years
- 46. End of the presentation