Targets for Resilient Cities

Urban Transport World 2011
Targets for Resilient Cities
Approaches for integrating land use and transport planning

Presented by Kym Lennox
February 2011

Kym Lennox
Urban Transport World 2011 – Targets for Resilient Cities February 2011

Outline
Introduction
An unsustainable future
An alternative
Targets
Framework
Conclusion

Kym Lennox
NSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector November 2010

Kym Lennox

Introduction
Resilient city
• Sustainable in its political economy
• Capable of handling economic and environmental shocks
• Capable of timely response to changes in the underlying
assumptions of the sustainability

Resilience is a vision not a target

Kym Lennox

Introduction
Sustainable Political Economy
• Constantly improving productivity
• A medium-to-long term structurally balanced public
sector budget
• Institutional stability

The key is investing in the right social and
physical infrastructure at the right time
Kym Lennox

Not planning for the known is unsustainable
• Transport will remain oil dependant beyond 2050
• Development land will be progressively more expensive
• The developed world will have a median age over 50
• The price of energy will more than double in real terms
• The population will not stabilise before 2050
• The operational life of today’s planning extends past 2050

Kym Lennox


Kym Lennox

Introduction
Sydney’s last 40
year
performance in
Transport
Infrastructure
(~$18B 2010$)

Kym Lennox

Over the past 40 years less than $200 per year per head has
been invested into public transport infrastructure in Sydney.

Up to 1% of GDP will be lost every year to car
park infrastructure investment
The cost of the infrastructure to park the additional vehicle
fleet in 2050 will cost at least $400 per year per head for the
next 40 years and consume up to 100 km2 of green field land
across Greater Sydney.

Kym Lennox

An alternative
per Capita Rail passenger Km
3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0
Switzerland Japan Germany United Kingdom China Australia United States

Kym Lennox

An alternative
Land use and transport planning implications
• Existing housing stock ill suited to future needs
• Planning controls need to respond to the context of the
site not to barriers and boundaries
• Strategic opportunity and whole of government cost and
social benefit needs to inform the decision process

Hiding from the future will not stop it occurring.

Kym Lennox

If this is what
Sydney needs,
how will it be
funded, what
land use
planning must
have occurred
and what
triggers
implementation
stages.

Kym Lennox

Targets
What happens if…
• Social values for home ownership change
• Public transport demand grows twice as fast
• Carbon is priced at $100 per tonne in 2020
• The next 20 years is a second baby boom

Responding requires transparency and
consistency in policy
Kym Lennox

Framework – The 4Es
Express the targets

Establish the external benefits

Embed the role of the Stakeholders

Ensure Certainty

Kym Lennox

Framework
Express the targets
Government policy should define and express targets that
over time shift land-use to limit the resource intensity of the
transport demand.

Targets must be measurable and aspirational

Kym Lennox

Framework
Establish the external benefits
Policy and the public sector must establish the external
benefits and clearly define the roles of stakeholders in any
target.

A clear role for government provides a certainty of the
economics and defines their participation as regulator and
financial contributor.

Kym Lennox

Framework
Embed the role of the Stakeholders
Clarity is key to risk taking. Roles can not be defined by what
another stakeholder is not doing. The policy and regulatory
framework must clearly express and embed the roles and
their communication obligations.

What is: the role of each department? The role of council?
The communication to the community? The controls to
ensure achieving the strategic goal?

Kym Lennox

Framework
Ensure Certainty
Certainty connects plans with implementation. Funding will
not be maintained without certainty. Certainty is not rigidity
in the face of a changing world, it is keeping to the strategic
goal.

Transparency and participation in the decision making
process provides certainty through predictable change.

Kym Lennox

Conclusion

Sustainability is achievable only through an
institutional focus on the structure of
the urban form and transport

Kym Lennox

Questions

Kym Lennox
Australian Practice Lead
The Tipping Point Institute
Level 1, 341 George Street
Sydney NSW 2000
E: kym.lennox@ttpi.org
P: 02 9210 4642
W: www.ttpi.org

Kym Lennox

About the Tipping Point Institute
The Tipping Point Institute (TTPI) is an established consultancy that focuses on developing and
disseminating responses to the carbon constrained reality of the 21st century. TTPI provides its clients
clarity and context for their participation in a sustainable future. TTPI’s focus is to:
• define the targets through what we term ‘carbon economics’;
• deliver outcomes with best practice in infrastructure optimisation and planning;
• support public sector procurement and tender responses; and
• keep on target through programme governance.

Society and the economy are at a tipping point such that the consequences of people’s actions and
inactions will ripple through many generations to follow. TTPI seeks to be an active participant as
Australia and the world manage the next stage towards a sustainable future.

The organisation’s strategic goals are therefore to:
1. Integrate sustainability and consideration of carbon constraints into the decision processes of
Government, the private sector and every individual.
2. Lead and disseminate a structured leadership that is apolitical.
3. Promote and improve best practice methods that address the complexity of today’s challenges.

Kym Lennox

Targets for Resilient Cities

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