EXPONENTIAL CYCLE OF ABUNDANCE
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The document discusses the concept of an "exponential cycle of abundance" and the transition from an economy based on scarcity of tangible resources to one based on abundance of intangible resources. It argues that new technologies and a focus on collaboration, creativity and culture are enabling an exponential growth model driven by infinite and renewable intangible assets. The future involves distributed, networked processes and a multidimensional concept of wealth beyond just financial measures. Creating creative and collaborative communities can harness these forces by connecting local assets and sharing knowledge through technology.
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EXPONENTIAL CYCLE OF ABUNDANCE
- 1. EXPONENTIAL CYCLE OF ABUNDANCE Praia, 30th November 2013 Lala Deheinzelin Enthusiasmo Cultural www.laladeheinzelin.com www.criefuturos.com
- 2. Futurist, Specialist in Creative Economy and Sustainability Corporations Commucation Artistical Languages Third Sector NGOs FUTURE Goverments Local Development Biology and History International Cooperation Sustainability Digital Culture Crie Futuros Moviment
- 3. What is the role of a futurist?
- 4. Why do we talk about the future ? The futures is the result of dreams from the past and choices from the present Lala Deheinzelin , 2012
- 5. 1906, Twitter and sms
- 7. Internet, skype , wireless , GPS, computers, mega cities 1921-EUA
- 9. School of the future has disciplines that foster the perception of our interdependence. For instance: knowing the consequences in order to make better choices Now you can apply for “Choices” I already have credits for “Consequences 1 and 2” Cool!
- 10. Why do we talk about the future ? The present is very different from anything that came before. How can we understand it? Lala Deheinzelin
- 11. “A problem can not be solved by the same mind that has created it” Albert Einstein We need to change our paradigms Lala Deheinzelin
- 12. New ERA The centrality of the intangible Most valuable brand Google 75% of the value of a product is in its intangibles
- 13. AIRBNB largest “hotel” in the world On line system that makes available domestic rooms No building , no personnel, no infrastructure or communication expenses. PRE-EXISTING STRUCTURES + INTELIGENCE + TECHNOLOGY + COLABORATION Lala Deheinzelin
- 14. Figura 1- PIB da China (1952-2008) Fonte “Global technological change - from hard technology to soft technology” Beijing Academy of Soft Technology(BAST) http://www.soft-technology.org
- 15. INDUSTRIAL ERA – Natural resources, infra-structure Tangible = Finite CONSUMED BY USE COMPETITION Change of Era Creative Economy, New Technologies , Collaboration Intangible = Infinite MULTIPLIED BY USE COLLABORATION Lala Deheinzelin
- 16. Industrial Era – Naturals resources, infra-structure Tangible = Finite Economy of Scarcity LINEAR Growth, 5 + 5 = 10 30 steps= 30 meters Creative Economy, New Technologies, Collaboration Intangible = Infinite Economy of Abundance EXPONENTIAL Growht , 5x5x5x5x5= 3.125 30 steps= 26 times around the planet Lala Deheinzelin
- 17. Why do we talk about the future ? From scarce to abundant Centrality of the intangibles Lala Deheinzelin
- 18. SOCIOCULTURAL Cultural Diversity INTANGIBLE “SOFTWARE” 2D “Lenses” Tangible Intangible TECHNO – NATURAL Bio Diversity TANGIBLE “HARDWARE”
- 19. Brazil: World Cup and Olympic Games And the “software” ? Management, Education, ITCs, entrepreneurship? IDB: 3% of investments 2D “Lenses” Tangible Intangible Tangible, the “hardware”: New facilities, highways, etc. IDB: 97% of investments Lala Deheinzelin
- 21. Creative Cities and Territories MEDELLÍN COLOMBIA From drugs Cartel to the most innovative city of the world HOW ? 40 % of the city budget on education and culture
- 22. Why do we talk about the future ? From scarcity to abundance Netweaved distributed processes Lala Deheinzelin
- 23. CENTRALIZED DISTRIBUTED • TANGIBLE • INTANGIBLE • LINEAR • EXPONENTIAL • RESTRICTED AND SCARCE FLOW • INFINITE PATHS, FLOW • UNIDIMENSIONAL (quantitative, one currency) • REPRODUCTION • MULTIDIMENSIONAL ( qualitative, multi currency) • CREATION • BUREOCRACY • SIMPLIFICATION BASED ON TRUST • SCARCITY • ABUNDANCE
- 24. LINEAR = focus on tangibles/ infra-struture + centralized processes EXPONENTIAL = focus on intangibles/ creatives + network processes, distributed HOW TO MAKE GOOD USE OF EXPONENTIAL POSSIBILITIES? EXPONENTIAL CYCLE OF ABUNDANCE Lala Deheinzelin
- 25. PayPal founder and libertarian futurist Peter Thiel : Gave 20 bright young things $100,000 each to quit college and start a company instead. Result from 2011 and 2012 fared. They have founded over 30 companies and raised a reported $34 million thus far
- 26. Why do we talk about the future ? Exponential cycle of Abundance Lala Deheinzelin , 2012
- 27. D sociopolitical COLLABORATIVE Distributed Models of business and organization Focus on Common Wealth Intangibles + new technologies results in D techno - natural NEW TECHNOLOGIES Virtual Worlds Sharing Economy key: broaden the concept of wealth and quality life D monetary – solidary MULTIDIMENSIONAL WEALTH 4D: Social, Cultural, Financial, Environmental Assets EXPONENTIAL CYCLE OF ABUNDANCE become visible and operational thanks to D symbolic cultural INTANGIBLE ASSETS Desirable futures Cultural Diversity Experience
- 28. EXPONENTIAL CYCLE OF ABUNDANCE D socio cultural INTANGIBLE ASSETS Desirable futures Cultural Diversity Experience
- 29. CULTURA Mentalidades e Hábitos – Nossa visão e jeito de estar no mundo CREATIVE ECONOMY Economy whose value is based upon on intangibles resources Is a key for all types of activity CREATIVE CITIES AND TERRITORIES (territorial approach) CREATIVE INDUSTRY Arts + Industry + Content + Creative services ARTS Lala Deheinzelin
- 30. Assets TANGIBLE Ex: oil, gold, land Traditional Economy Assets Identified and accessible INTANGIBLE Creative Economy Cultural Diversity, Process that adds value brand, artistic language, innovation Tangível + Intangível MAIOR VALOR Wealth and life quality Wealth and life quality
- 31. Economia Criativa: chain of value genereation Possible only with the sinergy with other areas. Product $$ + Marketing Product $$$$ + Comunication + Design Product $ Creative economy is multisectorial by nature Product $$$$$$ + DIstribuition
- 32. Creative Cities and Territories MEDELLÍN COLOMBIA From drugs Cartel to the most innovative city of the world HOW ? 40 % of the budget on education and culture
- 33. Turning a problem into a solution Barbacena, was a city with a bad image because it houses the biggest lunatic asylum in Brazil… … so, they created the Fool’s Festival , where every madness is possible and welcome! As a “Hoephonic” , an orchestra where patients from the madhouse play attuned hoes …
- 34. R&D, Design Culture and Media Software Internet services Computerization of services Arts and Craftsmanship Research & Development Advertising Intellectual property Editorial Market Museums Television, Broadcasting, Films and Audiovisual, Literature and Performing Arts Architecture and City planning Consulting Fashion and lifestyle City planning Decoration Personal care services Weddings, parties and photos Indoor entertainments Leisure and recreation Tourists services Consulting Market research Conventions and Exhibitions Security consulting Insurances services Innovation services and Technology Services related to Arts and culture Creative Industries in Shanghai
- 35. Secretário Executivo UC Reforma do Estado - Carlos Santos 1ª categoria em liberdades ( Freedom house ) e o País mais Livre em África, política e civilmente ( Mo Ibraim e MCC) Melhor esperança de vida Africana – 73, 9 anos Melhor Democracia de lusófona, 2ª melhor democracia africana Segundo País mais bem gerido em África (Mo Ibraim) Segundo País mais Transparente em África ( Mo Ibraim e MCC) 3º melhor País africano com taxa de acesso e cobertura de internet Dez Países africanos com o melhor PIB em África Melhor crescimento regional ao nível de Turismo, Dez “Melhores destinos turísticos éticos” Lista dos dez Países africanos de futuro e com melhor ambiente Prémio “Country of the Year” (GEW – Global Entrepreneurship Week), Prémio Africano de Inovação para o Sector Público (AAPSIA 2012
- 36. Creative Economy+ Collaborative – Intangibles Resources that that renew and multiply with use Have greater activation potential, fostering the environment Financial Results + Environmental, Social, Cultural ESTRATEGIC PRIORITY AND KEY FOR SUSTAINABILITY Lala Deheinzelin
- 37. Creating Creative and Collaborative Communities Cultural Dimension INTANGIBLE ASSETS Comprehend The local intangible assets + shared community vision Communicate Story telling : share local differentials and common vision
- 38. EXPONENTIAL CYCLE OF ABUNDANCE D techno - natural NEW TECHNOLOGIES Virtual Worlds Sharing Economy become visible and operational thanks to D symbolic cultural INTANGIBLE ASSETS Desirable futures Cultural Diversity Experience
- 39. www.indiosonline.net – Tupinambás Indigineous People, Bahia Uses mobiles to record traditional activities, fight for their rights, commercialize products, interact
- 40. Sharing economy: uses ITCs to generate business as from sharing http://meshing.it/
- 41. Creating Creative and Collaborative Communities Environmental Dimension INFORMATION AND COMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES Connect Local dreams and needs + Local available spaces, equipments, materials Care Generate growth through taking care of people, environment, rights, etc
- 42. D sociopolitical COLLABORATIVE Distributed models of business and organization Focus on Common Wealth Intangibles + new technologies results in D techno - natural NEW TECHNOLOGIES Virtual Worlds Sharing Economy EXPONENTIAL CYCLE OF ABUNDANCE become visible and operational thanks to D symbolic cultural INTANGIBLE ASSETS Desirable futures Cultural Diversity Experience
- 43. Knowledge + Will + Time + ITCs COLLABORATION WIKIPEDIA = 100 million hours to make it = whatch TV adds, in one single weekend, just in USA World: 1 trillion hours /years on TV Imagine everything we could do with these time hours + knowledge + will?
- 44. Ultra fast and safe car .Runs 100 miles per liter of gaz Produced in 3 months , by 8 people living in 4 different countries Made with 3D printers and costs around U$ 20.000
- 45. SOLE – Self Organized Learning Environements http://www.ted.com/pages/sole_challenge 0,1 % of the “Diaspora de Cape Verde” as tutor 1 h/w = workload of 3.000 school year/class
- 46. Creating Creative and Collaborative Communities Social Dimension NETWORK IN ACTION COLABORATE The only way of winning it all. Integrated action: from competition to collaboration CELEBRATE Joy, creativity and a cause as a means to mobilize collective action
- 47. Collaborative Producers Instituto Intercidadania, Pedro Jatobá Complete Cycle, Capacity Building + Difusion + Exihibition + Commercialization Lala Deheinzelin
- 49. Produtora Colaborativa, Pedro Jatobá, Instituto Intercidadania http://www.iteia.org.br/videos/pedro-jatoba-explica-a-produtora-cultural-na-expoidea
- 51. D sociopolitical COLLABORATIVE key: broaden the concept of Distributed models of wealth and business and organization quality life Focus on Common Wealth Intangibles + new technologies results in D techno - natural NEW TECHNOLOGIES Virtual Worlds Sharing Economy D monetary – solidary MULTIDIMENSIONAL WEALTH 4D: Social, Cultural, Financial, Environmental Assets EXPONENTIAL CYCLE OF ABUNDANCE become visible and operational thanks to D symbolic cultural INTANGIBLE ASSETS Desirable futures Cultural Diversity Experience
- 52. Wealth of nations Intangible, “software” GHP “Lenses” 2D Tangible Intangible Tangible, “hardware”: GDP Lala Deheinzelin ,
- 53. Measurement Tangible, “hardware”: Intangible, “software” “Lenses” 2D Tangible Intangible Processes Qualitative Dynamics Life quality Products Quantitative Numbers money Lala Deheinzelin ,
- 54. SOCIAL AMBIENTAL ECONÔMICO FINANCEIRO ECONÔMICO Mas, hardwares não funcionam sem “software”... Cadê a inteligência e a criatividade? E os valores humanos, os atributos? O mundo interior ? SIMBÓLICO-CULTURAL Lala Deheinzelin
- 55. SOCIOPOLITICAL rights + Governance Intangible Environmental 4 dimensions 4D ECONOMY Financial MONETARY + SOLIDARY ECONOMY TECHNO - NATURAL Tangible SYMBOLIC - CULTURAL Knowledge + Culture Lala Deheinzelin
- 56. SOCIAL Collective activities Community and family relationships Policies/ Laws / standards Reputation / Visibility/ Media/ Press/ Dissemination Connections /Alliances/Contacts Networks/Clubs/ Collectives ENVIRONMENTAL Equipment Available spaces, totally or in part Special places, nature and monuments Biodiversity, nature Raw material and reusable residues Body and health 4D RESOURCES FINANCIAL Funding/Tenders/Funds Investments Markets/ Products for Distribution Working hours/ Voluntary works Complementary currencies CULTURAL Artistic Languages Traditional knowledge and doings Formal Knowledge/ Research History/ Myths/ Curiosities/ Traditions Values/ Attributes/ Differentials Social cultural technologies Events/ festivities/calendar Unique experiences / leisure/ hobbies/
- 57. SOCIAL Does it generate more connections, joint action and things made in a “co” way ? ENVIRONMENTAL Does it optimize and generate techno – natural resources ? 4D RESULTS FINANTIAL Does it generate flows, wealth and wellbeing in the 4Ds ? CULTURAL Does it generate knowledge, criativity, experiences ?
- 58. SOCIOPOLITICAL RIGHTS + GOVERNANCE REPUTATION –6 ENVIRONMENTAL TECHNO - NATURAL POOR USE OF NATURAL RESOURCES -5 4D RESULTS FINANTIAL MONETARY + SOLIDARY 8-4-5+2= -1 SYMBOLIC - CULTURAL KNOWLEDGE + CULTURE KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT +2 SALLES +8
- 59. 4D Matrix 4D VALUE 4D GOALS 4D PROCESSES 4D RESOURCES 4D RESULTS
- 60. “Fora do Eixo”: 2009 – 30% in currency , 70% in Collaborative 2010 – 15% in currency, 85% in Collaborative More than 88 millions circulated
- 61. Creating Creative and Collaborative Communities Financial Dimension MULTIDIMENSIONAL WEALTH CIRCULATE Generate fair flows of 4D resources and results CREDIT Systematization: indicators and measures for wealth beyond finance
- 62. Social Dimension NETWORK SOCIETY Financial Dimension 4D PROSPERITY COLLABORATE CELEBRATE CREDIT CIRCULATE Creating Creative and Collaborative Communities Environmental Dimension INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES CONNECT CARE Cultural Dimension INTANGIBLE ASSETS COMPREHEND COMMUNICATE
- 64. Enable adequate environment Systemic, non sectorial policies
- 65. SCALE UP Solve macro socioeconomics problems through the connection of many, small and diverse
- 67. The future desired by all is the fabric that suport. The colours are the diversity, Integration of the diverse segments create the design. And with trust and networks, everyone sustains everybody.
- 68. YEahh !!! Another world is possible ! We have resources, knowledge and people !! Lala Deheinzelin
- 69. THANK YOU ! My “nourishment”: is your statement! www.laladeheinzelin.com video articles publications Lala Deheinzelin lala@enthusiasmo.com.br