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3 q10 flash higher capacity to drive 2011 estimates higher
1.
Equity Research
Alternative Energy/Renewable Energy November 30, 2010
Refer to Important Disclosures beginning on page 3
Aaron Chew
Senior Alternative Energy Analyst
212‐898‐6301
aaron.chew@hapoalimsec.com
Company Data
Price Performance (USD)
Earnings Estimates
Sector Rating Mkt‐Underperform
Stock Rating Hold
Ticker/Exchange TSL/NYSE
52 Wk Hi‐Low $14.85 ‐ $31.89
Market Cap. (million) $1,886.03
Shares out (million) 78.95
Float (million) 78.88
Avg. Daily Vol (x000) 3,727.86
15
20
25
30
35
Nov Jan MarMay Jul Sep
EPS 2010E 2011E
Q1 $0.66A $0.96
Q2 $0.52 $0.86
Q3 $0.92 $0.96
Q4 $1.24 $0.83
FY $3.34 $3.62
Consensus
FY $2.88 $3.30
Revenue: $508.3m (vs. our $447.4m estimate and Street at $420.6m). The upside was driven
by both higher shipments of 291 MW (vs. our 261 MW estimate) and higher ASPs of an
estimated $1.75 (vs. our $1.71 forecast).
Gross Margins: 31.4% (vs. our 30.3% estimate and Street at 30.6%).
Operating Expenses: $46.4m (vs. our $43.4m estimate and Street at $37.2m).
EPS: $1.08 (vs. our $0.92 estimate and Street at $0.87).
Higher 4Q10 Shipment Guidance Outlook Offset by Lower Gross Margins from
Cell/Wafer Outsourcing: Looking ahead, TSL raised its guidance for 2010 shipments to 1 GW
(from 900‐930 MW previously) driven by the 3Q10 upside of ~35 MW and expectations for
stronger 4Q10 shipments of 300 MW. Though this exceeds our current 4Q10 shipment
estimate of 262 MW, we believe much of the upside will be offset by a lower gross margin
outlook of 30% (vs. our current 35% forecast), weighed down by higher external cell/wafer
purchases and higher 4Q10 cell/wafer spot pricing. We will review our estimates after the call.
Capacity Expansion Plans for 2011YE Raised to 1.7 GW for Cells/Modules and 1.2
GW for Ingots/Wafers: In addition, TSL boosted its capacity expansion plans by 200 MW
across the supply chain to 1.7 GW of cell and module (vs. its prior outlook for 1.5 GW) and to
1.2 GW for ingot and wafer (vs. 1 GW prior). While this is below our expectations for a 400‐500
MW increase, the new capacity expansion plan can be paid for with cash on hand, and we
expect this to lead to higher Street estimates for 2011.
Key Questions for the Conference Call: (1) Pricing trends in 1Q11; (2) Expectations for
bounce in German demand in December; (3) Outlook for German demand and comments on
Germany regulatory risk in 2011; (4) Outlook for non‐silicon processing costs to decline ~10%
in 2011 still intact?; (5) Aside from efficiency gains, what is the primary driver of lower
processing costs in 2011 and beyond. Dial‐in: 800‐884‐2382 (passcode: 2380‐9157).
Valuation and Rating: Our price target of $27.00 is based on a P/E multiple of 7.5x our 2011
EPS estimate. While we prefer TSL over its peers for exposure to the solar manufacturing
industry, our concerns that its valuation multiple could remain under pressure ahead of policy
and pricing risks in 2011 keep us from being more positive.
TRINA SOLAR [TSL]
As was largely expected, TSL delivered stellar 3Q10 results with better‐than‐expected
revenues, gross margin, and opex overcoming an unexpected FX hedging loss to drive EPS
of $1.08 ahead of our above‐consensus $0.92 estimate. While we expect a brighter outlook
for 4Q10 shipments (of 300 MW) to be largely offset by gross margin expectations of 30%
(below our current forecast for 35%), we expect 2011 Street estimates to move higher on
the heels of a 200 MW boost to its capacity expansion plans to 1.7 GW for cell/module and
1.2 GW for ingot/wafer. We will review our estimates following the conference call but
maintain our Hold rating and $27 price target.
HOLD
Price: $23.89
Price Target: $27.00
3Q10 Flash: Higher Capacity to Drive 2011 Estimates Higher
2.
Equity Research
Trina Solar November 30, 2010
Page 2 of 5
Table 1: TSL 3Q10 Variance Table
Source: Trina Solar, Thomson one, and Hapoalim Securities estimates
3Q10 3Q10 Variance Variance Street
Estimate Reported $ % Est.
MW Shipments 261.5 291.0 29.5 0.11
Revenue ($M) $447.4 $508.3 $60.9 13.6% $420.6
x Gross Margin (%) 30.3% 31.4% 1.1% 30.6%
= Gross Profit $135.6 $159.4 $23.8 17.6% $128.5
Selling Expenses $22.6 $21.7 $0.9 3.9%
+ G&A $17.5 $20.5 ($3.0) (17.2%)
+ R&D $3.3 $4.2 ($0.9) (26.4%)
= Total Operating Expenses $43.4 $46.4 ($3.0) (6.9%) $37.2
Operating Profit $92.2 $113.0 $20.8 22.5% $91.3
Operating Margin (%) 20.6% 22.2% 1.6% 21.7%
Interest Income (Expense) ($8.6) ($7.5) $1.2 (13.5%)
+ Other Income (Expense) $2.5 ($8.6) ($11.1) (444.1%)
= Pretax Income $86.1 $96.9 $10.9 12.6% $83.4
x Tax Rate 15.0% 14.5% NA 15.6%
= Income Tax Expense $12.9 $14.1 ($1.2) (9.0%) $13.0
Net Income (if Converted) $73.2 $85.2 $12.0 16.5% $70.4
Diluted EPS (if Converted) $0.92 $1.08 $0.16 17.6% $0.87
Dil. Share Count 79.7 78.8 (0.9) 81.0