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Kenny Laskowski
Basics of Interdependence
       EU imports from         Russia exports to EU
       Russia (as % of total   (as % of total
       resource imported)      resource exported)
Gas                      36%                    70%

Oil                      31%                    80%

Coal                     30%                    50%
Importance of the Ukraine

80% of Russian natural gas passes
  through Ukrainian pipelines!
History of Ukrainian-Russian Gas
              Problems
 Russian Gazprom placed vital
  assets in Ukraine under USSR
 Grazprom lost direct control
  over assets to Ukraine after
  the collapse of the USSR
 Ukraine control of pipelines
  and Russian control of gas
  creates massive ties between
  the two in the gas industry
 At collapse of USSR, 90% of
  gas to Europe went through
  Ukraine
History of Ukrainian-Russian Gas
            Problems (con’t)
                                1999: Ukraine agrees
1992: Russia                                                  2009 Gas Crisis
                                to relieve debt by
halts gas      1994 Gas                                       shuts off gas to
                                selling equipment
allocations    Agreement                                      Europe for 22 days
to Ukraine     balancing interests                            until agreement
                                             2004: Orange     was reached
               of two countries
                                             Revolution



1990                                                                           2009
                 1998: Dispute over                2006: Russia cuts off
                 Ukrainian siphoning gas           gas to Ukraine; reach
                 intended for Europe               2006 Gas Agreement
1992: Russia
reduces gas flow to                  2001: Russia and
Ukraine                              Ukraine reach 2001
                                     Transit Agreement
Better Understanding Ukraine-
      Russian Gas Problems


 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ka7S0R9dhGg
Future Pipeline Possibilities
        Nord Stream Pipeline
                               •Connects
                               Russian gas w/EU
                               more directly
                               •“European
                               interest”
                               •Line 1 is already
                               operational
                               •Financing for
                               Line 2 secured in
                               March 2011
                               •Set to be
                               complete later
                               this year (2012)
Future Pipeline Possibilities
          South Stream

                         •Construction to
                         begin 2013
                         •Important for
                         Russian influence
                         and European
                         energy security
                         •Cost: 12-15
                         billion euros
                         •First gas supplies
                         to flow late 2015
Future Pipeline Possibilities
         Nabucco Pipeline
                            •Construction set to
                            begin 2013
                            •Costs roughly 8
                            billion euros
                            •Gas will be supplied
                            from Caspain region
                            and Middle East
                            •Significant because
                            it is free from
                            Russian interest and
                            supply
                            •Set to be completed
                            in 2017
Possibilities for the future of the
                 Ukraine
 Possible transportation
  of Iranian gas
 Turning inward to own
  natural resources
 Must first deal with
  internal problems
  before such a scenario
  is possible
Addressing Ukraine’s Internal
         Problems
 Corruption in politics and gas supply to Ukraine
 Legislation difficulties relating to the bureaucratic
  nature of the Ukrainian political system
 Energy management or lack thereof; inefficient
  use by populace and inability of government to
  make change
 Lack of resource use; the potential and lack of
  progress towards this potential

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Gas problems with russian and ukrainian indigestion

  • 2. Basics of Interdependence EU imports from Russia exports to EU Russia (as % of total (as % of total resource imported) resource exported) Gas 36% 70% Oil 31% 80% Coal 30% 50%
  • 3. Importance of the Ukraine 80% of Russian natural gas passes through Ukrainian pipelines!
  • 4. History of Ukrainian-Russian Gas Problems  Russian Gazprom placed vital assets in Ukraine under USSR  Grazprom lost direct control over assets to Ukraine after the collapse of the USSR  Ukraine control of pipelines and Russian control of gas creates massive ties between the two in the gas industry  At collapse of USSR, 90% of gas to Europe went through Ukraine
  • 5. History of Ukrainian-Russian Gas Problems (con’t) 1999: Ukraine agrees 1992: Russia 2009 Gas Crisis to relieve debt by halts gas 1994 Gas shuts off gas to selling equipment allocations Agreement Europe for 22 days to Ukraine balancing interests until agreement 2004: Orange was reached of two countries Revolution 1990 2009 1998: Dispute over 2006: Russia cuts off Ukrainian siphoning gas gas to Ukraine; reach intended for Europe 2006 Gas Agreement 1992: Russia reduces gas flow to 2001: Russia and Ukraine Ukraine reach 2001 Transit Agreement
  • 6. Better Understanding Ukraine- Russian Gas Problems  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ka7S0R9dhGg
  • 7. Future Pipeline Possibilities Nord Stream Pipeline •Connects Russian gas w/EU more directly •“European interest” •Line 1 is already operational •Financing for Line 2 secured in March 2011 •Set to be complete later this year (2012)
  • 8. Future Pipeline Possibilities South Stream •Construction to begin 2013 •Important for Russian influence and European energy security •Cost: 12-15 billion euros •First gas supplies to flow late 2015
  • 9. Future Pipeline Possibilities Nabucco Pipeline •Construction set to begin 2013 •Costs roughly 8 billion euros •Gas will be supplied from Caspain region and Middle East •Significant because it is free from Russian interest and supply •Set to be completed in 2017
  • 10. Possibilities for the future of the Ukraine  Possible transportation of Iranian gas  Turning inward to own natural resources  Must first deal with internal problems before such a scenario is possible
  • 11. Addressing Ukraine’s Internal Problems  Corruption in politics and gas supply to Ukraine  Legislation difficulties relating to the bureaucratic nature of the Ukrainian political system  Energy management or lack thereof; inefficient use by populace and inability of government to make change  Lack of resource use; the potential and lack of progress towards this potential