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European Leveraged Finance Market Update
               April, 2012
        Sucheet Gupte - Director
www.LeveragedLoan.com
Market Trends
Text




       The market re-gained its confidence after Greece’s restructuring.

       Inflows and volume were positive, with a slight drop-off in the
       secondary market.

        • The primary markets remained open for both loans and bonds.

        • With the high yield markets open again, issuers executing bond
          for loan takeouts.

        • Default rates ticked higher; expected to rise further during the
          year.
European Loan Flow Name Prices
    100


     99


     97

                                               Text
      96


      94


       93


          91

            1/11     2/11     4/11     5/11     6/11   8/11   9/11   10/11 12/11   1/12   2/12 3/12
.         Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
European HY Bond Flow Name Prices

    106


    102


     98


     94
                                  Text
     89


     85


     81
          1/11      3/11   5/11    7/11   9/11   11/11   1/12   3/12
.    Source: Bloomberg
ELLI Multi-currency Loan Return (monthly)
      3.0%
                                                    March 2012:      + 0.99%
                           Text                     February 2012:   + 0.73%
                                                    Q1 2012:         + 4.36%
                                                    Q1 2011:         + 4.23%
     1.8%




     0.5%




    (0.8%)




    (2.0%)
             3/10 5/10 7/10 9/10 11/10 1/11 3/11 5/11 7/11 9/11 11/11 1/12 3/12

.       Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
New-issue: Loans vs. HY Bonds (monthly)
            12
                                                                           HY bonds
                                               Text
                                                                           Loans
            9
€billions




            6

                                                                                                               €4.7B


            3


                                                                                                               €2.8B

            0
                 3/11    4/11   5/11   6/11   7/11   8/11   9/11   10/11    11/11 12/11   1/12   2/12   3/12

 .           Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
ELLI Default Rates – European Leveraged Loans
                 Default Rate by Principal Amount                        Default Rate by Issuer Count

    13%                                                        16%



                                                               13%
    9%


                                                               10%
    6%

                                                             Text
                                                                6%


    3%
                                                                3%



    0%                                                          0%
      2/09             3/10            4/11           3/12        2/09    2/10           2/11           3/12

.         Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
Looking Ahead
out



      A-to-E activity will continue to dominate.


      Inflows into European loan accounts are still miniscule with
        high yield accounts getting most of the attention.


      With the markets open again, banks are willing to underwrite,
       however M&A activity is still muted.

      In contrast to the US where default rates are at all time lows,
         default rates in Europe are expected to move up.
Text




European Leveraged Finance Market Update
               April, 2012
        Sucheet Gupte - Director
Text
          Copyright 2012 Standard & Poor's, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any
                      Text
part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a
database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of S&P. The Content shall not be used for any unlawful or
unauthorized purposes. S&P, its affiliates, and any third party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees
or agents (collectively S&P Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of the Content. S&P
Parties are not responsible for any errors or omissions, regardless of the cause, for the results obtained from the use of the
Content, or for the security or maintenance of any data input by the user. The Content is provided on an "as is" basis. S&P
PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY
WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, FREEDOM FROM BUGS,
SOFTWARE ERRORS OR DEFECTS, THAT THE CONTENT’S FUNCTIONING WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED OR THAT THE
CONTENT WILL OPERATE WITH ANY SOFTWARE OR HARDWARE CONFIGURATION. In no event shall S&P Parties be
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any use of the Content even if advised of the possibility of such damages.

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April 2012, European Leveraged Loan Market Analysis

  • 1. Text European Leveraged Finance Market Update April, 2012 Sucheet Gupte - Director
  • 3. Market Trends Text The market re-gained its confidence after Greece’s restructuring. Inflows and volume were positive, with a slight drop-off in the secondary market. • The primary markets remained open for both loans and bonds. • With the high yield markets open again, issuers executing bond for loan takeouts. • Default rates ticked higher; expected to rise further during the year.
  • 4. European Loan Flow Name Prices 100 99 97 Text 96 94 93 91 1/11 2/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 12/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 . Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 5. European HY Bond Flow Name Prices 106 102 98 94 Text 89 85 81 1/11 3/11 5/11 7/11 9/11 11/11 1/12 3/12 . Source: Bloomberg
  • 6. ELLI Multi-currency Loan Return (monthly) 3.0% March 2012: + 0.99% Text February 2012: + 0.73% Q1 2012: + 4.36% Q1 2011: + 4.23% 1.8% 0.5% (0.8%) (2.0%) 3/10 5/10 7/10 9/10 11/10 1/11 3/11 5/11 7/11 9/11 11/11 1/12 3/12 . Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 7. New-issue: Loans vs. HY Bonds (monthly) 12 HY bonds Text Loans 9 €billions 6 €4.7B 3 €2.8B 0 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 . Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 8. ELLI Default Rates – European Leveraged Loans Default Rate by Principal Amount Default Rate by Issuer Count 13% 16% 13% 9% 10% 6% Text 6% 3% 3% 0% 0% 2/09 3/10 4/11 3/12 2/09 2/10 2/11 3/12 . Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 9. Looking Ahead out A-to-E activity will continue to dominate. Inflows into European loan accounts are still miniscule with high yield accounts getting most of the attention. With the markets open again, banks are willing to underwrite, however M&A activity is still muted. In contrast to the US where default rates are at all time lows, default rates in Europe are expected to move up.
  • 10. Text European Leveraged Finance Market Update April, 2012 Sucheet Gupte - Director
  • 11. Text Copyright 2012 Standard & Poor's, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any Text part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of S&P. The Content shall not be used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. S&P, its affiliates, and any third party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (collectively S&P Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of the Content. S&P Parties are not responsible for any errors or omissions, regardless of the cause, for the results obtained from the use of the Content, or for the security or maintenance of any data input by the user. The Content is provided on an "as is" basis. S&P PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, FREEDOM FROM BUGS, SOFTWARE ERRORS OR DEFECTS, THAT THE CONTENT’S FUNCTIONING WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED OR THAT THE CONTENT WILL OPERATE WITH ANY SOFTWARE OR HARDWARE CONFIGURATION. In no event shall S&P Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs) in connection with any use of the Content even if advised of the possibility of such damages. Credit-related analyses, including ratings, and statements in the Content are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions. S&P assumes no obligation to update the Content following publication in any form or format. The Content should not be relied on and is not a substitute for the skill, judgment and experience of the user, its management, employees, advisors and/or clients when making investment and other business decisions. S&P’s opinions and analyses do not address the suitability of any security. S&P does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor. While S&P has obtained information from sources it believes to be reliable, S&P does not perform an audit and undertakes no duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives. S&P keeps certain activities of its business units separate from each other in order to preserve the independence and objectivity of their respective activities. As a result, certain business units of S&P may have information that is not available to other S&P business units. S&P has established policies and procedures to maintain the confidentiality of certain non-public information received in connection with each analytical process. S&P may receive compensation for its ratings and certain credit-related analyses, normally from issuers or underwriters of pause securities or from obligors. S&P reserves the right to disseminate its opinions and analyses. S&P's public ratings and analyses are made available on its Web sites, www.standardandpoors.com (free of charge), and www.ratingsdirect.com and www.globalcreditportal.com (subscription), and may be distributed through other means, including via S&P publications and third party redistributors. Additional information about our ratings fees is available at www.standardandpoors.com/usratingsfees.