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European Leveraged Finance Market Update
               April, 2013
                     Sucheet Gupte - Director
        open pause




 Text
European Market Trends
Text




       • Loan issuance was €4.85B in March 2013; HY issuance was €8.6B.

       • Estimated inflows into European HY funds was €614M for
         March compared to an outflow of €154M in February and an
         inflow of €1.8B in January.

       • Secondary markets are mixed:
           loan markets up almost 40 bps points to finish the month at 99.86;
           high yield markets down 26 bps to finish the month at 102.57.


       • The S&P European Leveraged Loan Index (ELLI) finished March up 0.91%.


       • Default rates were mixed:
          default rates by principal amount fell;
          default rate by issuer count stayed level.
European Loan Flow Name Prices
    100


    99
                                                      Text
     97


     96


     94


     93


     91
          1/11   3/11    5/11    7/11    9/11 11/17 1/12 3/12 5/12 7/12 9/12 11/12 1/13 3/13
.         Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
European HY Bond Flow Name Prices
    106


    102

                                     Text
     98


     94


     89


     85


     81
      1/11 3/11 5/11 7/11 9/11 11/11 1/12 3/12 5/12 7/12 9/12 11/12 1/13 3/13
.         Source: Bloomberg
ELLI Multi-Currency Loan Return
    2.5%
                                               March 2013:          + 0.91%
                               Text            February 2013:       + 0.40%
                                               Q1 2013:             + 2.52%
                                               Q1 2012:             + 4.36%
    1.9%




    1.3%




    0.6%




     0%
      12/11 1/12       2/12   3/12   4/12   5/12   6/12   7/12   8/12   9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12 1/13   2/13   3/13
.          Source: S&P European Leveraged Loan Index
Volume: New-issue Loans vs. HY Bonds
            15
                                                             HY bonds
                                         Text                Loans

            11
€billions




             8




             4




             0
                 11/11 12/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12 1/13 2/13 3/13

 .               Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
ELLI Default Rates – European Leveraged Loans
                 Default Rate by Principal Amount                      Default Rate by Issuer Count

    16%                                                       16%



    13%                                                      13%



    10%                                                      10%




    6%                                                  Text
                                                           6%




    3%                                                       3%




    0%                                                       0%
      2/09        2/10         2/11        12/11      3/13     2/09   2/10       12/11        2/12    3/13

.         Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
Themes to watch for
Text




       • Further spread / yield compression is expected, as loan issuers use access to
          the high yield markets to reduce existing spreads.


       • Along with repricings, some sponsors are tabling dividend recap deals to take
          advantage of investor demand, both in loans and high yield.

       • Still strong demand for HY bonds, so far this year, net inflows stand at €2.26B.


       • Bond for loan-take-outs will continue to keep pace as issuers address their
          maturity concerns.

       • Both Apollo and Pramerica are expected to price their CLOs sometime in
          April and there are whispers that others might look at doing the same.


       • Still fear that geo political shocks could erode confidence from the markets.
Text




European Leveraged Finance Market Update
               April, 2013
        Sucheet Gupte - Director
Text
          Copyright 2013 Standard & Poor's, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any
                      Text
part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a
database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of S&P. The Content shall not be used for any unlawful or
unauthorized purposes. S&P, its affiliates, and any third party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees
or agents (collectively S&P Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of the Content. S&P
Parties are not responsible for any errors or omissions, regardless of the cause, for the results obtained from the use of the
Content, or for the security or maintenance of any data input by the user. The Content is provided on an "as is" basis. S&P
PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY
WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, FREEDOM FROM BUGS,
SOFTWARE ERRORS OR DEFECTS, THAT THE CONTENT’S FUNCTIONING WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED OR THAT THE
CONTENT WILL OPERATE WITH ANY SOFTWARE OR HARDWARE CONFIGURATION. In no event shall S&P Parties be
liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs,
expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs) in connection with
any use of the Content even if advised of the possibility of such damages.

Credit-related analyses, including ratings, and statements in the Content are statements of opinion as of the date they are
expressed and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment
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European leveraged loan market analysis - April 2013

  • 1. out Text European Leveraged Finance Market Update April, 2013 Sucheet Gupte - Director open pause Text
  • 2. European Market Trends Text • Loan issuance was €4.85B in March 2013; HY issuance was €8.6B. • Estimated inflows into European HY funds was €614M for March compared to an outflow of €154M in February and an inflow of €1.8B in January. • Secondary markets are mixed: loan markets up almost 40 bps points to finish the month at 99.86; high yield markets down 26 bps to finish the month at 102.57. • The S&P European Leveraged Loan Index (ELLI) finished March up 0.91%. • Default rates were mixed: default rates by principal amount fell; default rate by issuer count stayed level.
  • 3. European Loan Flow Name Prices 100 99 Text 97 96 94 93 91 1/11 3/11 5/11 7/11 9/11 11/17 1/12 3/12 5/12 7/12 9/12 11/12 1/13 3/13 . Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 4. European HY Bond Flow Name Prices 106 102 Text 98 94 89 85 81 1/11 3/11 5/11 7/11 9/11 11/11 1/12 3/12 5/12 7/12 9/12 11/12 1/13 3/13 . Source: Bloomberg
  • 5. ELLI Multi-Currency Loan Return 2.5% March 2013: + 0.91% Text February 2013: + 0.40% Q1 2013: + 2.52% Q1 2012: + 4.36% 1.9% 1.3% 0.6% 0% 12/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12 1/13 2/13 3/13 . Source: S&P European Leveraged Loan Index
  • 6. Volume: New-issue Loans vs. HY Bonds 15 HY bonds Text Loans 11 €billions 8 4 0 11/11 12/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12 1/13 2/13 3/13 . Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 7. ELLI Default Rates – European Leveraged Loans Default Rate by Principal Amount Default Rate by Issuer Count 16% 16% 13% 13% 10% 10% 6% Text 6% 3% 3% 0% 0% 2/09 2/10 2/11 12/11 3/13 2/09 2/10 12/11 2/12 3/13 . Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 8. Themes to watch for Text • Further spread / yield compression is expected, as loan issuers use access to the high yield markets to reduce existing spreads. • Along with repricings, some sponsors are tabling dividend recap deals to take advantage of investor demand, both in loans and high yield. • Still strong demand for HY bonds, so far this year, net inflows stand at €2.26B. • Bond for loan-take-outs will continue to keep pace as issuers address their maturity concerns. • Both Apollo and Pramerica are expected to price their CLOs sometime in April and there are whispers that others might look at doing the same. • Still fear that geo political shocks could erode confidence from the markets.
  • 9. Text European Leveraged Finance Market Update April, 2013 Sucheet Gupte - Director
  • 10. Text Copyright 2013 Standard & Poor's, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any Text part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of S&P. The Content shall not be used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. S&P, its affiliates, and any third party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (collectively S&P Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of the Content. S&P Parties are not responsible for any errors or omissions, regardless of the cause, for the results obtained from the use of the Content, or for the security or maintenance of any data input by the user. The Content is provided on an "as is" basis. S&P PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, FREEDOM FROM BUGS, SOFTWARE ERRORS OR DEFECTS, THAT THE CONTENT’S FUNCTIONING WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED OR THAT THE CONTENT WILL OPERATE WITH ANY SOFTWARE OR HARDWARE CONFIGURATION. In no event shall S&P Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs) in connection with any use of the Content even if advised of the possibility of such damages. Credit-related analyses, including ratings, and statements in the Content are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions. S&P assumes no obligation to update the Content following publication in any form or format. The Content should not be relied on and is not a substitute for the skill, judgment and experience of the user, its management, employees, advisors and/or clients when making investment and other business decisions. S&P’s opinions and analyses do not address the suitability of any security. S&P does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor. While S&P has obtained information from sources it believes to be reliable, S&P does not perform an audit and undertakes no duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives. S&P keeps certain activities of its business units separate from each other in order to preserve the independence and objectivity of their respective activities. As a result, certain business units of S&P may have information that is not available to other S&P business units. S&P has established policies and procedures to maintain the confidentiality of certain non-public information received in connection with each analytical process. S&P may receive compensation for its ratings and certain credit-related analyses, normally from issuers or underwriters of pause securities or from obligors. S&P reserves the right to disseminate its opinions and analyses. S&P's public ratings and analyses are made available on its Web sites, www.standardandpoors.com (free of charge), and www.ratingsdirect.com and www.globalcreditportal.com (subscription), and may be distributed through other means, including via S&P publications and third party redistributors. Additional information about our ratings fees is available at www.standardandpoors.com/usratingsfees.