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European Leveraged Finance Market Update
              January, 2013
        Sucheet Gupte - Director
European Market Trends
Text



       • December loan issuance was nil, HY issuance was €1.5B.

       • 2012 loan issuance was €28.5B, HY issuance was €36.4B.

       • Estimated inflows into HY funds were €245M for December,
         bringing estimated 2012 year-end number to €7.2B.

       • Secondary markets were up:
         Loan markets went up 51 bps to finish the month at 97.34
         HY markets were up 223 bps to finish the month at 103.04.

       • In 2012, secondary loan markets were up 330 bps for the year,
         HY markets were up 13 points for the year.

       • The S&P European Leveraged Loan Index (ELLI) finished the
         month up at 0.72% and the year at 9.48%.

       • However, default rates climbed higher during the month.
European Loan Flow Name Prices
    100


     99
                                                      Text
     97


      96


      94


          93


          91

               1/11   3/11   5/11    7/11     9/11 11/17 1/12   3/12   5/12   7/12   9/12   12/12
.         Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
European HY Bond Flow Name Prices

    106


    102

                                           Text
     98


      94


      89


          85


          81

               1/11 3/11 5/11 7/11 9/11 11/11 1/12 3/12 5/12 7/12 9/12   12/12
.     Source: Bloomberg
ELLI Multi-Currency Loan Return
    2.5%
                                        December 2012:   + 0.72%
                          Text          November 2012:   + 0.66%
                                        Jan-Dec 2012:    + 9.48%
                                        Jan-Dec 2011:    - 0.02%
    1.9%




    1.2%




    0.6%




    -0.1%
         12/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12

.     Source: S&P European Leveraged Loan Index
Volume: New-issue Loans vs. HY Bonds
            10
                                                         HY bonds
                                     Text                Loans

            8
€billions




            5




            3


                                                                                     €1.5B

            0                                                                          €0B
            11/11 12/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12

 .           Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
ELLI Default Rates – European Leveraged Loans
                 Default Rate by Principal Amount                       Default Rate by Issuer Count


    16%                                                       16%


    13%                                                       13%


    10%                                                       10%



    6%                                                    Text
                                                             6%



    3%                                                        3%



    0%                                                        0%
      2/09        2/10         2/11        12/11      12/12     2/09   2/10       12/11                12/12

.         Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
Themes to watch for
Text




 • Strong inflows into HY funds, resulting in strong demand for HY issuers.



• Bond for loan-take-outs will continue to keep apace.


• Issuers from the Eurozone peripheral countries continue to access HY markets.
   Some have made their tax regimes far more amenable for issuers than before.



• Sell-side bankers and sponsors are optimistic about M&A provided there are no
   unexpected shocks to the system.
Text
          Copyright 2012 Standard & Poor's, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any
                      Text
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January 2013, European Leveraged Loan Market Analysis

  • 1. Text European Leveraged Finance Market Update January, 2013 Sucheet Gupte - Director
  • 2. European Market Trends Text • December loan issuance was nil, HY issuance was €1.5B. • 2012 loan issuance was €28.5B, HY issuance was €36.4B. • Estimated inflows into HY funds were €245M for December, bringing estimated 2012 year-end number to €7.2B. • Secondary markets were up: Loan markets went up 51 bps to finish the month at 97.34 HY markets were up 223 bps to finish the month at 103.04. • In 2012, secondary loan markets were up 330 bps for the year, HY markets were up 13 points for the year. • The S&P European Leveraged Loan Index (ELLI) finished the month up at 0.72% and the year at 9.48%. • However, default rates climbed higher during the month.
  • 3. European Loan Flow Name Prices 100 99 Text 97 96 94 93 91 1/11 3/11 5/11 7/11 9/11 11/17 1/12 3/12 5/12 7/12 9/12 12/12 . Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 4. European HY Bond Flow Name Prices 106 102 Text 98 94 89 85 81 1/11 3/11 5/11 7/11 9/11 11/11 1/12 3/12 5/12 7/12 9/12 12/12 . Source: Bloomberg
  • 5. ELLI Multi-Currency Loan Return 2.5% December 2012: + 0.72% Text November 2012: + 0.66% Jan-Dec 2012: + 9.48% Jan-Dec 2011: - 0.02% 1.9% 1.2% 0.6% -0.1% 12/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12 . Source: S&P European Leveraged Loan Index
  • 6. Volume: New-issue Loans vs. HY Bonds 10 HY bonds Text Loans 8 €billions 5 3 €1.5B 0 €0B 11/11 12/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12 . Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 7. ELLI Default Rates – European Leveraged Loans Default Rate by Principal Amount Default Rate by Issuer Count 16% 16% 13% 13% 10% 10% 6% Text 6% 3% 3% 0% 0% 2/09 2/10 2/11 12/11 12/12 2/09 2/10 12/11 12/12 . Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 8. Themes to watch for Text • Strong inflows into HY funds, resulting in strong demand for HY issuers. • Bond for loan-take-outs will continue to keep apace. • Issuers from the Eurozone peripheral countries continue to access HY markets. Some have made their tax regimes far more amenable for issuers than before. • Sell-side bankers and sponsors are optimistic about M&A provided there are no unexpected shocks to the system.
  • 9. Text Copyright 2012 Standard & Poor's, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any Text part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of S&P. The Content shall not be used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. S&P, its affiliates, and any third party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (collectively S&P Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of the Content. S&P Parties are not responsible for any errors or omissions, regardless of the cause, for the results obtained from the use of the Content, or for the security or maintenance of any data input by the user. The Content is provided on an "as is" basis. S&P PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, FREEDOM FROM BUGS, SOFTWARE ERRORS OR DEFECTS, THAT THE CONTENT’S FUNCTIONING WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED OR THAT THE CONTENT WILL OPERATE WITH ANY SOFTWARE OR HARDWARE CONFIGURATION. In no event shall S&P Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs) in connection with any use of the Content even if advised of the possibility of such damages. Credit-related analyses, including ratings, and statements in the Content are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions. S&P assumes no obligation to update the Content following publication in any form or format. The Content should not be relied on and is not a substitute for the skill, judgment and experience of the user, its management, employees, advisors and/or clients when making investment and other business decisions. S&P’s opinions and analyses do not address the suitability of any security. S&P does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor. While S&P has obtained information from sources it believes to be reliable, S&P does not perform an audit and undertakes no duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives. S&P keeps certain activities of its business units separate from each other in order to preserve the independence and objectivity of their respective activities. As a result, certain business units of S&P may have information that is not available to other S&P business units. S&P has established policies and procedures to maintain the confidentiality of certain non-public information received in connection with each analytical process. S&P may receive compensation for its ratings and certain credit-related analyses, normally from issuers or underwriters of pause securities or from obligors. S&P reserves the right to disseminate its opinions and analyses. S&P's public ratings and analyses are made available on its Web sites, www.standardandpoors.com (free of charge), and www.ratingsdirect.com and www.globalcreditportal.com (subscription), and may be distributed through other means, including via S&P publications and third party redistributors. Additional information about our ratings fees is available at www.standardandpoors.com/usratingsfees.