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US Leveraged Finance Market Update
November, 2013
Steve Miller - Managing Director
Leveraged Loan Volume
Total Volume

M&A Loan Volume

$600B

$600B

$525B

$525B

$450B

$450B

$375B

$375B

$300B

$300B

$225B

$225B

$150B

$150B

$75B

$75B

Source: S&P Capital IQ/LCD

Institutional

Pro Rata

11
/6
/1
YT
2
11
/6
/1
3

$0B
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

YT

Pro Rata

YT

Institutional

11
/6
/1
2
YT
11
/6
/1
3

$0B
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Average Bid of S&P/LSTA Loan 100 Index
99

98

97

95

94

9/12

10/12

11/12

Source: S&P Capital IQ/LCD

12/12

1/13

2/13

3/13

4/13

5/13

6/13

7/13

8/13

9/13

10/13
S&P/LSTA Index Loans Outstanding
$650B

$620B

$590B

$560B

$530B

$500B

9/12

10/12

11/12

Source: S&P Capital IQ/LCD

12/12

1/13

2/13

3/13

4/13

5/13

6/13

7/13

8/13

9/13

10/13
Visible Inflows
$20B

Mutual Funds Inflows
CLO Issuance
$15B

$10B

$5B

$0B
9/12

10/12

11/12

12/12

Source: S&P Capital IQ/LCD, Lipper

1/13

2/13

3/13

4/13

5/13

6/13

7/13

8/13

9/13

10/13
Average New-Issue Clearing Yield of First Lien Loans
7%

All-BB
All-B
6%

5%

5%

4%

3%
9/12

10/12

11/12

Source: S&P Capital IQ/LCD

12/12

1/13

2/13

3/13

4/13

5/13

6/13

7/13

8/13

9/13

10/13
Loan Default Rate
12%

10%

7%

5%

2%

0%
12/98

8/00

Source: S&P Capital IQ/LCD

4/02

12/03

8/05

4/07

12/08

8/10

10/13
M&A Institutional Loan Forward Calendar
$35B

$28B

$21B

$14B

$7B

$0B

2/10

4/10

6/10

8/10 10/10 12/10 2/11

Source: S&P Capital IQ/LCD

4/11

6/11

8/11 10/11 12/11 2/12 4/12

6/12 8/12 10/12 12/12 2/13 4/13 6/13 8/13 10/13
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www.linkedin.com/groups/LCD-Leveraged-Loan-Group-2092432
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November 2013, US Leveraged Loan Market Analysis

  • 1. Text US Leveraged Finance Market Update November, 2013 Steve Miller - Managing Director
  • 2. Leveraged Loan Volume Total Volume M&A Loan Volume $600B $600B $525B $525B $450B $450B $375B $375B $300B $300B $225B $225B $150B $150B $75B $75B Source: S&P Capital IQ/LCD Institutional Pro Rata 11 /6 /1 YT 2 11 /6 /1 3 $0B 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 YT Pro Rata YT Institutional 11 /6 /1 2 YT 11 /6 /1 3 $0B 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
  • 3. Average Bid of S&P/LSTA Loan 100 Index 99 98 97 95 94 9/12 10/12 11/12 Source: S&P Capital IQ/LCD 12/12 1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13
  • 4. S&P/LSTA Index Loans Outstanding $650B $620B $590B $560B $530B $500B 9/12 10/12 11/12 Source: S&P Capital IQ/LCD 12/12 1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13
  • 5. Visible Inflows $20B Mutual Funds Inflows CLO Issuance $15B $10B $5B $0B 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12 Source: S&P Capital IQ/LCD, Lipper 1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13
  • 6. Average New-Issue Clearing Yield of First Lien Loans 7% All-BB All-B 6% 5% 5% 4% 3% 9/12 10/12 11/12 Source: S&P Capital IQ/LCD 12/12 1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13
  • 7. Loan Default Rate 12% 10% 7% 5% 2% 0% 12/98 8/00 Source: S&P Capital IQ/LCD 4/02 12/03 8/05 4/07 12/08 8/10 10/13
  • 8. M&A Institutional Loan Forward Calendar $35B $28B $21B $14B $7B $0B 2/10 4/10 6/10 8/10 10/10 12/10 2/11 Source: S&P Capital IQ/LCD 4/11 6/11 8/11 10/11 12/11 2/12 4/12 6/12 8/12 10/12 12/12 2/13 4/13 6/13 8/13 10/13
  • 9. Follow LCD www.lcdcomps.com News, analysis, research, archives www.linkedin.com/groups/LCD-Leveraged-Loan-Group-2092432 LCD Leveraged Loan Group ... 11,000+ contacts www.twitter.com/lcdnews Headlines, market chatter www.facebook.com/lcdcomps/ Daily Playbook, headlines, video analysis www.leveragedloan.com Free website covering the leveraged loan market www.highyieldbond.com Free website covering the HY market
  • 10. Copyright 2013 Standard & Poor's, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of S&P. The Content shall not be used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. S&P, its affiliates, and any third party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (collectively S&P Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of the Content. S&P Parties are not responsible for any errors or omissions, regardless of the cause, for the results obtained from the use of the Content, or for the security or maintenance of any data input by the user. The Content is provided on an "as is" basis. S&P PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, FREEDOM FROM BUGS, SOFTWARE ERRORS OR DEFECTS, THAT THE CONTENT’S FUNCTIONING WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED OR THAT THE CONTENT WILL OPERATE WITH ANY SOFTWARE OR HARDWARE CONFIGURATION. In no event shall S&P Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs) in connection with any use of the Content even if advised of the possibility of such damages. Credit-related analyses, including ratings, and statements in the Content are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions. S&P assumes no obligation to update the Content following publication in any form or format. The Content should not be relied on and is not a substitute for the skill, judgment and experience of the user, its management, employees, advisors and/or clients when making investment and other business decisions. S&P’s opinions and analyses do not address the suitability of any security. S&P does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor. While S&P has obtained information from sources it believes to be reliable, S&P does not perform an audit and undertakes no duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives. S&P keeps certain activities of its business units separate from each other in order to preserve the independence and objectivity of their respective activities. As a result, certain business units of S&P may have information that is not available to other S&P business units. S&P has established policies and procedures to maintain the confidentiality of certain non-public information received in connection with each analytical process. S&P may receive compensation for its ratings and certain credit-related analyses, normally from issuers or underwriters of securities or from obligors. S&P reserves the right to disseminate its opinions and analyses. S&P's public ratings and analyses are made available on its Web sites, www.standardandpoors.com (free of charge), and www.ratingsdirect.com and www.globalcreditportal.com (subscription), and may be distributed through other means, including via S&P publications and third party redistributors. Additional information about our ratings fees is available at www.standardandpoors.com/usratingsfees.