Summary of key project findings from the RELU Sustainable Uplands project, presented to stakeholders in Dumfries and Galloway. Two short films accompany this presentation - for details, see www.see.leeds.ac.uk/sustainableuplands

1. Sustainable Uplands Learning to manage future change relu Rural Economy and Land Use Programme

2. Sustainable Uplands Project Working with people in uplands to better anticipate, monitor and respond to future change Protecting livelihoods and ecosystem services (the benefits society gets from nature) Facilitating knowledge exchange between local stakeholders, policy-makers and social and natural scientists

3. 5 years (ending 2010) Sites in Peak District, Yorkshire Dales and Galloway (Cairnsmore of Fleet and the Luce, Bladnoch, Cree, Dee and Ken catchments) 27 researchers: Universities of Leeds, Aberdeen, Durham, Sheffield & others with Moors for the Future & Heather Trust £800K from RELU plus £100K from ESRC Plus additional funding for 16 projects using findings e.g. Yorkshire Water, Natural England, DEFRA, Premier Waste, United Utilities, Scottish Government, Commission for Rural Communities, Government Office for Science, International Union for the Conservation of Nature Sustainable Uplands Project

4. The Sustainable Uplands team: University of Aberdeen: Dr Mark Reed University of Leeds: Prof Joe Holden Dr Klaus Hubacek Dr Nesha Beharry-Borg Ms Jan Birch Ms Sarah Buckmaster Dr Dan Chapman Dr Pippa Chapman Dr Stephen Cornell Dr Andy Dougill Dr Evan Fraser Dr Jenny Hodgson Dr Nanlin Jin Dr Brian Irvine Prof Mike Kirkby Dr Bill Kunin Mr Oliver Moore Dr Claire Quinn University of Leeds (continued): Dr Brad Parrish Dr Lindsay Stringer Dr Mette Termansen University of Durham: Prof Tim Burt Dr Fred Worrall Dr Rob Dunford University of Sheffield: Dr Christina Prell Wirtschafts University, Austria: Dr Sigrid Stagl International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria: Jan Sendzimir Moors for the Future partnership The Heather Trust (Simon Thorp)

5. Plan Why are uplands so important? How can we prepare for the future? What might the future hold? What would this mean for the ecosystem services we depend upon? What can we do?

6. 1. Why are the uplands so important?

7. Why are uplands so important?

8. 2. How can we prepare for the future?

9. Hannah Benchetrit: http://api.ning.com/files/hb2M0V1FUUQZ-wN8BpHgc*TP10HBgRkggLJkBN4PJwcGm0aNNb8CGSerP2KwNQmKUdSj7j91-kYcbwbqCd849BCd2lFWZAXH/thinking.jpg Scenarios “The best way to predict the future is to invent it” Alan Kay “The future belongs to those who prepare for it today” Malcolm X

10. A new approach to scenarios

11. 3. What might the future hold?

12. Why manage the uplands?

13. Intensification Scenario

14. What might this mean for Galloway? Further afforestation of available land with predominantly Sitka Spruce on commercial forestry rotations

16. Green = absorbing carbon

17. Red = losing carbon

18. 1 km2 grid

19. 400 km2 area mapped

20. Just looking at soil, afforestation on peat soils is bad for carbon

21. Map showing current carbon dynamics of Water of Cree peats

22. Peat soils under conifers are losing carbon (red)

23. Peat soils not under conifers are absorbing carbon (green)

25. When you include trees and soil, the Water of Cree becomes a net carbon sink of -327 ktonnes CO2 equivalents

26. Carbon absorbed by trees more than makes up for soil C loss (assuming 80 year rotation), even on peat soils

28. Link between afforestation and acidification is contested:

29. Does it only apply where there is already atmospheric pollution?

30. Can re-planting help reduce acidification?

31. Could climate change be to blame for acidification?

32. To what extent is there evidence for the “forest effect” on fish data in Galloway?

33. Are the effects seen in the 1980s still there?

39. Possible diversification to exploit expanding tourism, consolidation of holdings and redevelopment of farm dwellings for tourism and to accommodate increasing numbers of retirees

40. Natural regeneration of forest in drier moorlands over long-term

42. It would also lead to scrub/natural regeneration on drier moors, which in time would lead to a net carbon benefit

43. Other forms of extensification: peatland restoration - in purely carbon terms, it is better to maintain commercial forestry rotations than to clear and restore to blanket bog

45. In Water of Cree, if we stopped all felling today, it would become a net source of carbon by 2050

47. 4. What would this mean for the ecosystem services we depend upon?

49. Less brown water

50. Reduced fire risk

51. Protection of moorland/bog species important for conservation

52. Limit scrub/forest encroachment

54. Other forms of intensification prioritise provisioning services at the expense of most other ecosystem services

55. Extensive management will benefit biodiversity in over-grazed moorlands and carbon, but compromise provisioning services such as game and sheep production, and in drier locations where scrub/forest encroaches, lead to a loss of moorland species and current recreational benefits

56. Both scenarios are likely to compromise upland biodiversity in many locationsGolden Plover

57. 5. What can we do?

59. Reduce likelihood of exacerbating conflicts under future scenarios

61. Share good practice and innovation within and between regions, based on local and scientific knowledge

62. Plan for the long-term

63. Manage increased recreation to reduce wildfire risk whilst maximising income via diversification

65. ...In a funding framework that can facilitate adaptive management e.g. shifting priorities as climate changes

66. Rewarding land owners and managers for the provision of public goods

67. Better value for money if we target funding towards land managers and locations that can most efficiently deliver the services we need?

70. Difficult choices, in which land owners, managers – and the public? – should be involved

72. Spatially explicit information about the value people put on different ES from different locations could inform decisions re: which ES to prioritise where

74. Keep pace with climate change through dynamic priorities e.g. restoration now while net carbon and biodiversity gain but revising boundaries/locations of designated areas in future?

75. Provide incentives for farmers to group together where interventions need to be carried out at larger scales

77. CSR pilot scheme

78. Working towards VCS accreditation but need to overcome methane and legislative barriers

79. New 5 year project to investigate methane emissions but we should have data for VCS within 18 months

81. Start of longer-term conversation that can inform future work

82. IUCN policy review by our team with Philip Lowe, Andrew Moxey, Clunie Keenleyside and others

84. How could this idea be further developed to make it work more effectively in practice?2. Put sticky dots next to the ideas you like best

85. Contact www.see.leeds.ac.uk/sustainableuplands Follow us on: www.twitter.com/reluuplands Email: sustainableuplands@see.leeds.ac.uk Call or text on: 0797 428 6778