TEDx Sonoma County: The Future of Wearables
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Presentation for TEDx Sonoma Country on the Future of Wearables, looking at wearables now and in the future.
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TEDx Sonoma County: The Future of Wearables
- 1. THE FUTURE OF WEARABLES LEE SHUPP
- 4. You Are Here
- 6. BILLIONS OF SENSORS COSTING PENNIES EACH GENERATING ZETTABYTES OF DATA
- 7. SENSORS ARE INCREASINGLY SMART CONNECTED AND PREDICTIVE
- 10. OURA
- 12. CUTECIRCUIT
- 13. INNOVEGA
- 15. 12 BRAIN
- 16. 11 BODY
- 17. 13 TRANSHUMAN?
- 19. 15 RISKS OF BEING TRANSHUMAN?
- 20. 16 CALL TO ACTION
- 21. THE FUTURE OF WEARABLES LEE SHUPP
- 22. LEE SHUPP Lee Shupp focuses on deeply understanding human experience and emotion to ensure that Speck designs compelling experiences for users interacting with our client’s products, services, and brands. Lee comes to Speck Design from The Futures Company and Silicon’s Valley’s seminal design consultancy Cheskin. He has done post-graduate work in Future Studies at the University of Houston, where he became a trained futurist. He has a Master’s in Communication from San Francisco State and a Bachelor’s in Communication from the University of Texas. Lee is a singer/songwriter who collects vintage guitars to feed his GarageBand addiction. Managing Director, Insights and Strategy at Speck Design
Notes de l'éditeur
- Slide 1: Introduction HI everyone, it’s a pleasure to be here. TED is one of my favorite places to be. I’m a professional futurist. But I have a confession to make: futurists don’t predict the future. Nobody can. What we do is to study macrotrends, to understand the direction that the future is headed in, knowing that there will be surprises along the way. I’m going to talk about the future of wearables today, but I have a confession to make: inside the future of wearables is a bigger story, about how we are becoming increasingly interconnected with technology, and what that means for us as human beings. I’m going to give you a quick overview of where I think we are headed, then talk about the opportunities and risks that I see coming in the future.
- Slide 2: Wearables market today I’m going to define “wearables” simply as devices with advanced processing and sensing power that are attached to the body. Quick show of hands: How many of you are wearing a health and fitness wearable, like a Fitbit or Jawbone activity tracker? (show of hands) How many of you are wearing an Apple watch? (show of hands) Do we have any Google glass users? Have they been banned here? These are all examples of current wearables. The wearables market is around $20B today (ID TechX), with around 40M units shipped. (BI 2015). Wearables are still in their infancy- expensive, and buggy. We are still seeing very high rates of return (30% or so) and product abandonment (about 50% within the first 6 months.) So there are lots of basic problems still being solved: what to measure, how to measure it accurately, and how to provide data that provides value and an engaging experience to users. These problems will begin to be solved as technology gets smaller, cheaper, and better.
- Slide 3: Growth of wearables market- S CURVE The wearables market is poised for exponential growth. Most forecasters are predicting growth around 35% a year. Some estimates are higher, assuming wearables get good fast, and some are lower, assuming the market remains similar to what it is today. Right now the focus on wearables is mainly on health and wellness monitors. While health and fitness is a promising category, I think that wearables will be much bigger than just health and fitness. I think we’ll use wearables in fashion to express identity and emotion. I think we’ll use wearables on our bodies to augment our physical and mental capabilities.
- Slide 4: Macrotrends driving the wearables market There are many macrotrends that are driving this market. Each is powerful individually, but together they combine to create rapid growth in wearables. Some of the most important macrotrends include: The growth of the cloud and increasingly easy and fast access to it Nanotechnology- the development of science and technology at the molecular level Artificial intelligence and the advance of algorithms with predictive powers Increasing computing power, as Moore’s Law continues and computers becomes faster, cheaper, and smaller Biocomputing- the merger of biology and computing, with computers embedded in or acting as biological systems Miniaturization- everything is getting smaller and smaller Big data- we are integrating data into increasingly bigger and more robust data sets Ubiquitous and cheap sensors gathering data that we’ve never had access to before They are all interconnected, and progress in any one area accelerates progress in adjacent areas.
- Slide 5: Sensors This is really a story of smaller and smarter sensors, and making sense of the increasing amount of data that they can gather. Think of sensors like you think of grains of sand. They will be everywhere. Sensors used to be expensive and we paid lots of money for them. We paid for GPS devices and heart rate monitors as stand alone devices. Now we carry around smartphones, which are really just a cluster of sensors that work together. The next step will be sensors becoming decentralized, distributed all over your body, gathering information all the time. The price of sensors is dropping rapidly, and soon they will cost just a few cents each. At that price point, you can put sensors in almost everything. Sensors have become so cheap that we are advising some clients to include them in product design, even if they are not sure how they will use the data yet. The ability to gather lots of data very inexpensively leads to opportunities that we can’t even see until we begin to analyze and understand the data.
- Slide 6: Sensors are smart, connnected, and predictive It’s clear that we’ll have lots of sensors gathering data, both on our bodies and in the external environment. Our wearables won’t just be interacting with us; they will also be interacting with the external environment. We are now using the term “ambient environments” to describe smart environments that are interacting with us, and with the sensors that we will we wearing. Right now we use our smartphones as our main interface with the external environment, for example programming our smart Nest thermostats. But more and more, sensors will be interacting with each other, without us having to manage the interaction. Sensors will be talking to each other, and talking to the cloud, and the power of artificial intelligence to make sense of networked information is growing by leaps and bounds. Sensors allow us to gather more data than every before, aggregate it and synthesize it, and make predictions from the data. You may have noticed that your iPhone now tells you traffic conditions and your commute time home as part of your daily routine. We are going to have incredible amounts of data. We’re going to look at previous human history as the Dark Ages of Data. We will be amazed at how little we know now. This will be especially true of our knowledge about how our bodies work.
- Slide 7: Wearables began as tech toys Wearables began as tech gadgets that we wore for fun. This is a band that Speck Design did for Minecraft, a virtual world video game. With Gameband, players can save and easily transport their Minecraft worlds on a portable USB drive. Gameband is also a watch and calendar, and a way for Gameband users to personalize their product by creating their own digital messages, images, and animations on the wristband’s LED array. This physical artifact from a virtual environment offers both kinship and validation for members of the Minecraft gaming community. We will see lots more of this- the merging of physical and virtual worlds.
- Slide 8: PixMob bracelets that create social experiences For Taylor Swift’s 1989 tour, every fan gets an LED wristband—a translucent silicone bracelet that lights up and changes color perfectly in time to the music. It’s controlled from the show’s sound and light boards. They’re designed by a company called PixMob, which uses infrared transmitters to allow the bracelets to be synced to each show’s music, lighting, and even the movement of people in the crowd (the bracelets are also motion-sensitive).* there’s no button, there’s nothing to activate—it just turns on and surprises the wearer by connecting to the music and the crowd. It seemingly has a digital life of its own.
- Slide 9: Sensors in jewelry We are seeing wearables become jewelry as well. The newest entry to the smart-ring market is Oura, a waterproof, scratch-proof ceramic ring. I’ve seen one at a Quantified Self conference, and they are beautiful. Oura uses sensors that measure your body temperature and pulse as well as an accelerometer that keeps tabs on your activity. Through monitoring these vitals the ring builds a picture of how well you sleep and is able to compare that to how much activity you have during each day. It then uses an algorithm to create suggestions for you on how to improve both sleep and actiivity.
- Slide 10: Sensors in smart clothing We are also seeing sensors in clothing. This is the OMSIGNAL smart shirt, shown here in a Ralph Lauren design in use by the ballboys at the US Open this year. Ralph Lauren claims to be the first luxury maker to incorporate smart technology in this way. You can be sure others will follow. OMSIGNAL smart shirt www.omsignal.com the OMsignal shirt is designed to track lots of data related to peak athletic performance: Heart rate Breathing rate Breathing depth Breathing balance Target heart rate zones Activity intensity Steps walked Calories burned Total push effort (the level of effort you put into your workout) HRV Heart rate and breathing recovery Smart Apparel offers all of these metrics but also offers innovative features such as post workout fitness reports, biometric training workout videos, and more.
- Slide 11: Sensors in fashion expressing emotion Senors will also be used to express identity and emotion in fashion. CuteCircuit, based in London, designs wearable technology and interactive fashion. The concept is human body as interface, a sort of second skin, that can connect us to people and places, even far away and remote ones. CuteCircuit created some of the most iconic garments in the fashion landscape. Some of their wearables include The HugShirt, honoured as one of the Best Inventions of the Year by Time Magazine The Galaxy Dress, on permanent display at the Museum of Science and industry in Chicago Nicole Scherzinger’s Twitter Dress, and interactive ready-to-wear. The delightful Katy Perry MET Gala evening gown, The tshirtOS and the iMiniSkirt controlled via the Q App, part of the CuteCircuit ready to wear collection.
- Slide 12: Sensors in contact lenses We will see sensors begin to improve and augment our senses as well. Innovega had developed a pair of sleek eyeglasses capable of overlaying digital media and transparent AR data onto the accompanying lenses shown here. By utilizing the specialized lenses to help users focus on both close and faraway objects in conjunction with the glasses to project the media and overlays, Innovega is able to do two things when most wearables do just one. First, it can project "glance-able" displays, like Google Glass does exclusively where data is pushed to the periphery. But by utilizing the contact lenses with the glasses, it can also project a full-screen HUD, in other words operate in a heads-up display mode similar to what goggle wearables like the gaming-focused Oculus Rift offer. The goal with that interface versatility is to deliver something both powerful for everyday use in activities like driving and exercising, but simultaneously absorbing for game playing, movie watching, and app using. “ The next time you see someone staring off into space at a meeting, know that they could be in a completely different virtual world.
- Slide 13: Sensors in prosthetics Wearables have also moved into prosthetics. What’s interesting here is that we’ve moved beyond the quest to re-create human capabilities, into the desire to augment and improve upon human capabilities. The South African runner Oscar Pistorus created controversy with his “blades” when human runners complained that the blades gave him an unfair advantage. They are not designed to be human legs; they are modeled on the legs of a cheetah. Aimee Mullins is an American athlete, actress, and fashion model who first became famous for her athletic accomplishments. She was the first person to be outfitted with woven carbon-fiber prostheses that were modeled after the hind legs of a cheetah, she went on to set World Records in the 100 meter, the 200 meter, and the long jump, sparking a frenzy over the radical design of her prototype sprinting legs. The essential design of those legs are now the world standard in sports prosthetics. She currently has 9 pairs of legs. She no longer worries about her legs looking human. She has a spirit of adventure and play that is wonderful, and she experiments with different designs. She has give several TED talks that are worth watching. She is inspiring.
- Slide 14: Brain computer interfaces We are now moving to brain computer interfaces. This is a crude cap that reads brain waves from the outside of your head. There are many headset devices on amazon.com now where you can do parlor tricks, like balance a ball or fly a helicopter with your thoughts. Some paraplegics are learning to control a computer mouse by directing their thoughts, because they can’t use their bodies. This is an interesting frontier of neuroscience, and worth watching. It’s still early, but the intersection of neuroscience, artificial intelligence, and sensors will create many new possibilities. We will see the development of brain computer interfaces that may allow all kinds of wild things, perhaps including enhanced memory, augmented thought capacity, etc
- Slide 15: Sensors inside our bodies Sensors will be going inside our bodies as well. We will soon be ingesting tiny sensors and biocomputers to get data from inside our bodies. This is the Proteus system, a company that Speck Design has been working with over the past year or so. The Proteus system includes an Ingestible pill that is biodegradable and safe to take. It monitors compliance right now, but it will soon be able to monitor much more. We will soon be able to put sensors in bloodstream, gut, just about anywhere in the body. Think of the data that we will be able to get. You could know the composition of your bloodstream, of your stomach, and so much more.
- Slide 16: transhuman? What does that mean for us? Wild stuff, yes? What does it mean for human beings to be so closely connected to sensors and computer chips? What happens when smart sensors become part of our bodies, part of our minds? Are we still in the driver’s seat, using increasingly sophisticated tools? Or are we becoming something more, a mashup of human and machine intelligence?
- Slide 17: Benefits We would all like to be superhuman, right? Wouldn’t we all like to have augmented abilities? To be a little more than just human? There are lots of benefits to the world that I’ve just described. We should have more and better data about our own health than ever before, and we should see a significant expansion of average lifespan. Not only our length of life, but our quality of life should improve. Humans will be capable of things that we can only imagine now. Think of an Augmented Olympics, where body modification is the norm, and is encouraged. We will have knowledge that we’ve never had before, both small data about ourselves and Big Data that reveals norms, trends, and predicts behavior.
- Slide 18: Risks There are also some significant risks. I don’t worry about what machines will do as much as I worry about what humans will do in this emerging world. We don’t know the health implications of having human computer interfaces on and within our bodies. We don’t know how our brains will process much higher amounts of data, and how data from our senses will integrate with data from our sensors. There is significant risk of information overload. We will have to prioritize the information that is important, and ignore the information that is not. What is important will likely change from moment to moment, so we will need really good predictive intelligence to let us know what we need to know next. Our best sensors, like our best friends, will know when to speak up and when to shut up. Privacy will become a bigger and more personal issue. Right now Americans are promiscuous with their privacy. We can’t afford to be loose with our privacy any longer. The data from wearables will be up close and personal, and the risks of the wrong people knowing your data will be too great. We’ll have to rewrite the rules of privacy, to be something along the lines of you own your own data, and you have the right to benefit from your data being aggregated with others anonymously. Security will also be a concern. You’ll be generating much more personal data, and protecting it will become increasingly important. A security breach may be able to kill you by adversely impacting technology that you depend on to live.
- Slide 19: what should you be thinking about? Every new device that we adopt is a decision we make about our relationship with technology. Privacy Paradox- who controls our personal data? How can we benefit from cloud intelligence (the data of everyone) while keeping our own data private? Security Paradox- Given the increasingly personal nature of data in the personal area network, how do we protect ourselves from being hacked? Could our data be stolen and held for ransom? Our relationship to technology. We have traditionally thought of technology as tools that we use, and we can take them or leave them. What happens to our relationship with technology when technology literally becomes part of us, in our bodies, in our blood, in our brains? How does that change our relationship with technology? What will it mean to be human? There are three camps within the futures community now: The humanist camp: we remain human, just using better tech tools, still firmly in control, since we make the tech we use. The Singularity camp: those who believe machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, leading smart machines to become dominant. The Trans Humanist camp: those who believe that humans will combine with machines to become a new superspecies, something post human. Which do you belong to?
- Slide 1: Introduction HI everyone, it’s a pleasure to be here, and I hope I get to meet each of you. I’m going to talk about the future of wearables, but I have a confession to make: inside the future of wearables is a bigger story, about how we are becoming increasingly interconnected with technology, and what that means for us in the future. I’m going to give you a quick overview of where I think we are headed, then talk about the opportunities and risks that I see coming in the near future, around the year 2020- just five years from now. Let me start by talking abou the state of the wearables market today. I’m going to define “wearables” very simply as devices with advanced processing and sensing power that are worn on the body. That’s basically just a computer chip with a sensor embedded in something we wear. You are already caring around a bunch of smart sensors interconnected in one device- your smartphone. Now we are starting to carry sensors around in a variety of different form factors. How many of you are wearing an Apple watch? (show of hands) How many of you are wearing a health and fitness wearable, like a Fitbit or Jawbone activity tracker? (show of hands) Do we have any Google glass users? Or have they been banned?