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Regulating radiation at levels where no harmful effect is observed baldry
1.
South Australia’s Environment Protection Authority Regulating radiation at levels where no harmful effect is observed Keith Baldry Director Regulation and Compliance October 2010
2.
The standard regulatory approach DosesCompliance Good Poor Optimised Not optimised
3.
Risks and models risk dose risk dose risk dose
4.
Risks and models UNSCEAR 2008, Sources and effects of ionizing radiation Monitored Workers Average Effective dose (mSv) Mining
12000 1.9 Milling 3000 1.1 Enrichment 18000 0.1 Fuel Fabrication 20000 1.6 Reactor Operation 437000 1.0 Reprocessing 76000 0.9 Research 90000 0.4 Aircrew 900 3.0 Nuclear Fuel Cycle 660 1.0 Medical Uses 7440 0.5 Industrial Uses 869 0.3 Military Activity 331 0.1 Natural Radiation 13050 2.9 Average 0.8
5.
Risks and models risk dose risk dose risk dose Low dose = Low risk and this is where we mostly regulate
6.
What do we get in practice? Risk Low High Business impact Burdened Public concern Reassured Outraged Supported
7.
Regulatory burden • UNSCEAR data shows that in all sectors in almost all countries the majority of occupational exposures are less than 1 millisievert • How many non‐radiological hazards have entire branches devoted to regulating them? •
Every regulatory clause and guidance note written and then read by thousands; every report written and read; every dosemeter issued to every individual with an annual dose of less than a millisievert: someone pays for these things. • A nuclear power plant costs a bazillion dollars to build* * $8bn rather than $2bn [Brook, Switkowski 18/10/10]
8.
9.
What’s wrong with being conservative? Letter to the Editor
10.
Community outrage
11.
‘No-one can tell
you that this is safe’ ‘Sir William Stewart, head of the NRPB and the Health Protection Agency, recommends “a precautionary approach to the use of mobile phone technologies be adopted…” ’
12.
Community outrage • Attitudes can take a generation to change • If we do not change public attitudes now, we will be in the same place in a generation
13.
Government confidence • It doesn’t matter how technically correct the solution is • Government decisions depend on confidence •
Railing against the government for indecision is of no value
14.
It’s ALARA’s fault • We are fixated on the three principles •
It is an excuse to avoid prioritisation of risks • It drives the wrong behaviour • It sends the wrong messages • Nobody (except us) understands it or values it
15.
OK, so what • International standards are not going to change in any way that will help in the short to medium term • However: we can use LNT effectively now, by properly appreciating that a low dose = a low risk •
With that appreciation, we can look around and see what might be more worthwhile
16.
Identifying value • In any given situation, regulating ALARA is probably not the most valuable thing • Value is not determined by the seller, it is determined by the buyer •
The questions are: what are the more important things, and how does this change the regulatory approach • Also: what do we do with the unintended by‐products of dose optimisation?
17.
Identifying value Stakeholder Value Public Workers Patients Licensee Government Science community
18.
Turning values into a purpose Science Influential Ignored Workers Trusting Distrust Public Reassured Outraged Government Confident Nervous mSv Low High Patients Well Sick Business Supported Burdened
19.
Turning public outrage into reassurance • Reduce doses • More compliance •
Increase transparency • Be honest • Demonstrate control, be authoritative • If it’s safe, say so* • Address the community directly (may require expertise in being able to talk to people) * Using the word ‘safe’
20.
Turning business burden into support • Fit in with existing systems • If the dose is below regulatory interest, don’t be interested* •
Use the right tools • Aim for outcome based regulation • Mandate the minimum and encourage best practice • National uniformity *Really, don’t be interested
21.
• Sound policy work • Iconic achievements •
Public reassurance = government confidence Gaining government confidence
22.
Making the science influential • Advocacy • Relationships •
Transparency – e.g. a national dose database Gaining workers’ trust
23.
Reducing the radiation risk • Prioritise the significant risks • You can have a regulatory de facto threshold, even if you don’t have a risk threshold •
Get in at the front end
24.
Outcome based regulation • At ARPS 2006, I proposed that the outcome we sought was: maximum millisieverts measured and saved • A question that always bothered me was: if you’ve spent a lifetime regulating and saving millisieverts, what if you then found out that it’s not bad for you? •
The answer is: we need outcomes, just more important ones
25.
Measuring outcomes • Assurance • Reassurance •
Confidence • Advice • Business certainty • Fairness • Relationships • Dose optimisation
26.
Capabilities required for effective regulation • Policy • Communication •
Community engagement • Political networking • Understanding of regulatory best practice • Effective tools • …and some radiation protection
27.
A purpose in life In regulating low doses, where there is a benefit, there are often many things that are more important than a theoretical, relative risk reduction so small it can never be detected. People‐related things are more important, the things that affect people and concern them much more than compliance or radiation doses. The regulator should find out what these things are. This gives the regulator a purpose in life.
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