1. www.therussiaforum.com the russia forum 2012
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the russia
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2. Information about positions of delegates and speakers of The Russia Forum 2012 are valid as of the date of the event.
Sberbank of Russia. General license of August 30, 2010 for banking operations in the territory of the Russian Federation. Registration number 1481.
Closed Joint-Stock Company “Investment company “Troika Dialog“ (hereinafter referred to as Troika Dialog Investment Company) may provide brokerage and depository services on the
basis of the following licenses granted by FSFM of Russia and provide other related services on the securities market:
№177-06514-100000 for brokerage activities as of April 08, 2003;
№177-06518-010000 for dealer activities as of April 08, 2003;
№177-06522-001000 for securities management activities as of April 08, 2003;
№177-06527-000100 for depository activities as of April 08, 2003;
Troika Dialog Investment Company is a financial consultant on the securities market.
Troika Dialog Investment Company is also entitled to render professional services in the capacity of stock market intermediary completing deals with futures and options on the basis of
License to act as stock market intermediary completing futures and options deals in stock market trading on the territory of the Russian Federation dated October 14, 2010, №1523, issued
by the FSFM of Russia.
Informative and analytical services and data are provided by Troika Dialog Investment Company only within the framework of the abovementioned services and do not constitute a separate
kind of activity.
Troika Dialog Investment Company may refuse to provide services to persons who do not meet the requirements, imposed by Troika Dialog Investment Company for its clients, or when
legislation applicable to such persons prohibits/restricts the provision of these services to them, as well as in other cases stipulated by applicable legislation and/or internal regulations of
CJSC Troika Dialog Investment Company.
Closed joint stock company “Asset Management Company “Troika Dialog“ was registered by the Moscow Registration Chamber on April 1, 1996. FSFM of Russia license №21-000-1-
00010 dated September 12, 1996 to perform management of investment funds, mutual investment funds and non-government pension funds. FSFM of Russia license №177-06044-
001000 dated June 7, 2002, to perform management of securities. http://www.troika-am.ru
The value of investment units can increase and decrease, investment results in the past are not a guide to future returns, the government does not guarantee the profitability of unit
investment fund investments. Prior to purchasing investment units, investors should attentively read the management rules of unit investment fund. To receive detailed information about
mutual funds and to read through the management rules of unit investment fund and other documents, please inquire to: 125009 Moscow, Romanov pereulok, 4.
Closed Joint-Stock Company “3D” – distributor of CJSC Troika Dialog AM and CJSC Troika Dialog Investment Company investment products
FSFM of Russia professional security market participant’s license:
– for rendering brokerage services №077-07641-100000 dated 28.04.2004
– for rendering dealer services №077-07648-010000 dated 28.04.2004.

3. T H E R U S S I A F O R U M 2 0 1 2
Every year The Russia Forum presents us with new chances to meet and openly discuss what is going on
in Russia and the wider world. The modern world is very dynamic and in this ever-changing situation it is
important to rely on those whom you trust. Trust is a key element that is built up by years of communication,
and I am proud that we have earned such trust. Obviously we cannot reduce the risks of investing in
Russia to zero, but we can make the unpredictable predictable by giving investors as much information
as possible during The Russia Forum so that they go on to make the right decisions.
This year we were able to take our Forum to the next level in terms of scale and quality thanks to the
joint efforts of Sberbank of Russia and Troika Dialog. We are pleased to announce that on the eve of the
Forum the deal for Sberbank of Russia’s 100% acquisition of Troika’s share capital was closed. This was
a significant event for both our company and the Russian financial market on the whole, and will allow
us to merge the knowledge and expertise of teams that every day make the impossible possible.
The Russia Forum is comparatively young, yet it has already become an important
international conference that investors rightly consider to be one of the highest calibre
DEAR FRIENDS, business events in Russia. This year the format of the Forum was greatly widened and
the programme featured new events: for the first time ever we held specialised thematic
workshops, which undoubtedly enabled us to make the Forum more informative. The
Russia Forum 2012 also included a special day entitled “Cinema and Money” and
YOU HAVE IN YOUR HANDS THE RUSSIA featured over 40 panel discussions and sessions dedicated to a wide range of the most
FORUM 2012 MAGAZINE, WHICH SUMS UP varied topics – from global economic challenges to making investments in art and the
THE FIFTH ANNIVERSARY EDITION OF future of modern Russian cinema.
THE RUSSIA FORUM. I WOULD LIKE TO ONCE
AGAIN THANK EVERYONE WHO SPENT THOSE Over 3,000 delegates attended the Forum, and the event was covered by 345
FEW BUSY WINTER DAYS WITH US DESPITE journalists representing 133 media outlets from Russia and 12 foreign countries. In
THE RUSSIAN FROST AND THE MOSCOW connection with this, for the first time we held our event at a larger venue: the Moscow
TRAFFIC JAMS . THOSE WHO WEREN ’T ABLE International House of Music. We sincerely thank Vladimir Spivakov for the modern
TO VISIT OUR LANDMARK EVENT THIS YEAR infrastructure and high-quality service provided to the organisers and participants of
CAN FIND WHAT I HOPE WILL BE EXHAUSTIVE the Forum.
INFORMATION ABOUT THE RUSSIA FORUM
2012 ON THE PAGES OF OUR MAGAZINE. In conclusion I would like to thank the outstanding speakers whose addresses bring
The Russia Forum unquestionable success. I would like to express especial gratitude to
Vladimir Putin for his participation in the plenary session entitled “Russian Economic
Policy in a Time of Global Change”.
I hope that you found each and every part of The Russia Forum 2012 interesting, dear friends.
I also hope that your faith that Russia can and should be invested in has grown, and that
Russian investors were once again able to see that they have made the right choice.
YOURS SINCERELY,
RUBEN VARDANIAN
PRESIDENT OF TROIKA DIALOG, CO-HEAD OF THE
CORPORATE INVESTMENT UNIT, HEAD OF THE WEALTH
MANAGEMENT UNIT OF SBERBANK OF RUSSIA
I N T R O D U C T I O N 1

4. T H E R U S S I A F O R U M 2 0 1 2
СОNTENTS
04 DOSSIER 72 HERMAN GREF
Sberbank and Troika Dialog Today PANEL DISCUSSIONS, FEBRUARY 3
74 GORDON BROWN
08 STATISTICS 36 OPENING SPEECH: SERGEY SOBYANIN
Forum in Numbers 76 KENNETH ROGOFF
38 The Future of the Global Economy and Financial System
10 WORKDAYS 78 QUOTATION 103 Is There a Future for Cinemas and Distribution?
Program of The Russia Forum 2012 40 Risk Management: Myth or Reality? Straight from the Top
104 What do the Figures Mean? Cinema, Television and Advertising
12 SPEECH OF VLADIMIR PUTIN, PRIME MINISTER 42 A New Era in Mobile – Opportunity Knocks 80 SURVEY
OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION Forum Survey Results 105 Breakthrough Hit Creation: A Gift of Foresight or Calculation?
44 Where Does the Big Money Go?
PANEL DISCUSSIONS, FEBRUARY 2 82 RESEARCH CENTER 106 How to Finance Projects Through Special Funds
46 Interest Rates, Exchange Rate and Liquidity: are there Research Materials: An Investor’s Guide from Troika Dialog
14 Russia 2018: at Vital Crossroads and Challenges Resources for Investment? 107 How Will New Technology Change the Content Distribution Market?
that Will Determine the Country’s Future 84 CHARITY
48 Which Emerging Technologies will Kill the Traditional Bank? Cinema Auction 108 Ukraine: This Applies to Everyone. State Policy for Supporting
16 The Present and Future of Russian Oil: CEO Challenges Cinema and Co-Production
50 Developed and Emerging Banks: A Case of Irreversible 86 TELETYPE
18 Global Economic Ills and their Impact on the Social Framework Decline vs. Irrepressible Rise? The Press on the Forum 109 Transmedia: A New Language for a New Audience
20 Agriculture & Food: What Will the Future Bring? 52 Retail: Stabilization Period SPECIAL DAY “INVESTMENTS IN CINEMA, TELEVISION 110 Will Russia be able to Transform from the World’s Largest TV Format
AND NEW MEDIA” Importer into the Largest Exporter, and What Will it Take?
22 Privatization: Interim Results 54 Creating a Domestic Capital Base
92 Program of the Special Day 111 The Israeli Phenomenon: From Creative Desert
24 Russia’s Economic Policy in a Time of Global Change 56 Russia’s Gas Exports to Europe: New Challenges and Opportunities to Creative World Centre
94 List of Special Day Speakers
26 Metals and Mining in the CIS: Development Prospects 58 Transport and Infrastructure: Reform at a Crossroads? 112 Independent Cinema: How Not to Pass by a New Wave
amid Great Volatility 98 Cinema, Television and New Media in 2012: Key Topics
60 Troika Dialog: Investments in Art. Art Banking and Art Finance SPECIAL DAY ROUND TABLES
28 Russia in Transition 99 Media Pirates: Is It Worth Dealing With Them?
62 The Role of Innovation Policy in Modernisation 113 Institute of Stars: Why isn’t the Hollywood Strategy Used in Russia?
30 What’s Moving the Real Estate Market? 100 State Support of the Production and Distribution
64 WORKSHOPS (JANUARY 31 – FEBRUARY 1) of National Cinema – What is Going to Change? 114 Film Studios: Who Will Win the Competition?
32 New Industrialization in Russia ON THE AGENDA: THE MAIN ECONOMIC ISSUES
101 How to Finance Cinema and TV Projects 115 Where and How to Look for Talent?
34 CLOSING SPEECH: GORDON BROWN 66 FORUM IN FORMAT 1:1 at the Expense of Advertisers
List of company participants in meetings 116 BEST OF
102 Co-Production: How to Find a Common Language Forum Entertainment Program
68 PODIUM
Complete List of Forum Speakers 126 ART
Forum Guests Receive Inspiration from the Works of Wassily Kandinsky
INTERVIEWS THAT MATTER
128 FORUM PARTNERS
132 CONCLUSIONS
Alexander Bazarov Sums up the Forum
C O N T E N T S C O N T E N T S 3

5. T H E R U S S I A F O R U M 2 0 1 2
SBERBANK
The bank has the most extensive
branch network in Russia, consisting of
17 territorial banks, around 19,000 branches
TODAY
and internal structural subdivisions as well as
subsidiary banks in Kazakhstan, Ukraine and
Belarus, a branch in India and representative
offices in Germany and China.
Sberbank continuously develops its Recently the bank has accomplished
trade and export financing, and by a large amount of work aimed at
2014 it plans to increase the share of net increasing its focus on clients: the number
Founded in 1841, Sberbank of Russia is the largest bank in Russia and profit generated abroad to 5%. The key of ATMs and payment terminals has been
terms and conditions of a deal to acquire increased and internet bank functionality
the CIS. Its assets and shares account for over a quarter of the capital Volksbank International – with branches has been enhanced. Clients can now use the
in nine Central and Eastern European internet bank to independently manage their
of the country’s banking system. Sberbank is the biggest taker of countries – have been signed. At the end of accounts at home or via a smartphone. Since
2011, Sberbank signed an agreement on the October 2008 the share of remotely-executed
deposits on the market and the key lender to the national economy. creation of a joint loan market bank at points transactions has increased from 37% to 70%.
of sale with Cetelem (BNP Paribas Group) New contact centres have been created and New products and services
Approximately half of the population’s savings held in Russian banks and concluded a deal to acquire shares of SLB on average it takes 30 seconds for a caller to have been implemented,
Commercial Bank AG. In January 2012 the be put in touch with a contact centre specialist. for example the “Youth
are entrusted to Sberbank. Sberbank’s lending portfolio includes deal to merge leading investment company Offer”. For the purposes of
Troika Dialog into Sberbank was finalised. Client service models are being reducing loan application review
approximately a third of all the loans issued in Russia. The founder successively changed, taking into account time, Sberbank has implemented
the needs of similar client groups (VIP clients, the “Loan Factory” technology
and principle shareholder of Sberbank of Russia is the Central Bank large high-income segment). In 2011, 800 and now issues people all loans,
offices were refurbished. Up to 2015 the except mortgages, practically
of the Russian Federation, which holds over 60% of voting shares. reformatting programme envisages that the within one day. Sberbank also
7,700 points of sale will be reformatted.. launched a brand new product No less extensive work is being carried out
Over 245,000 individuals and legal entities are the bank’s other for those opening businesses, inside the bank; above all this concerns
New CRM-systems are being actively the “Business Start” loan and centralisation of operations and IT
shareholders. implemented at Sberbank’s corporate has started up the “Serviceman modernisation. In 2011 Sberbank opened the largest
and retail units (the corporate unit’s CRM- Mortgage”, a product aimed at data processing centre in Europe and the first automated
system already covers over 250,000 clients). providing Russian servicemen archiving and logistics centre in Russia. Currently there
These are information systems designed to with affordable and comfortable are 9 CTAs (Client Transaction Accompany Centre) in
record the history of interaction between accommodation. operation and a programme for creating interregional
client and bank, establish and improve service centres has been approved. This programme of
business procedures and carry out subsequent transformations is closely related to the new corporate
analysis of work results. ideology and technology, the SPS (Sberbank Production
System). Using SPS methods, 27 billion roubles have
already been saved. Of course, all this is grounded on
changes to the work with bank personnel. In terms of
personnel, a wide-reaching personnel evaluation and
training system has been implemented. In addition a
corporate training system is being developed with the
assistance of the world’s leading business schools and
unique social programmes have been launched.
D O S S I E R 5

6. T H E R U S S I A F O R U M 2 0 1 2
TROIKA
DIALOG
Troika Dialog is part of the Sberbank Group and is one of the leading investment
companies operating in the CIS. The key business areas of Troika Dialog, founded in
1991, are securities sales and trading, investment banking, private wealth and asset
management, private equity and venture investments, as well as personal investment and
finance. Troika Dialog’s operations are located in 21 cities across Russia plus offices in
New York, London, Nicosia, Kyiv and Almaty.
SECURITIES TRADING COMPLETE MARKET INVESTMENT
ANALYSIS BANKING
Troika Dialog is a participant on the main
exchanges trading in Russian assets. We The broad scope of Troika Dialog’s Troika Dialog provides its clients with a
provide a wide range of investors the research product offering reflects wide range of advisory services on deals
opportunity to carry out operations using a comprehensive and independent with shareholder and debt capital. Our aim
financial instruments and we support view of the CIS markets. Our analysts is to find the most effective solutions for
firm quotes for the most liquid equities of closely keep track of operations at our clients in the framework of applicable ASSET MANAGEMENT
Russian issuers beginning well before the 278 companies and conduct detailed legislation and to guarantee flawless
opening of trading in Moscow and ending analysis of the 129 most important execution no matter the market conditions. Since its founding in 1996, Troika
at midnight Moscow time when trading listed companies in Russia, Ukraine and In 2011, with the support of the Sberbank of Dialog AM has occupied the
closes in New York. Our company was Kazakhstan. In 2011 members of our Russia team, Troika Dialog took first place in leading positions in the mutual
recognised as the best brokerage house in research team took 12 key positions terms of M&A deals in Russia (Mergermarket investment fund industry and on OPERATIONS WITH
2008-2010 and our traders were deemed in the Institutional Investor All Russia data) and first place in the ranking of the asset management services PRIVATE CLIENTS
the best in Russia from 2008-2011, Analyst rankings. Our analysts took first organisers of bond issues on the domestic market. We offer our clients 20
according to Thomson Extel ratings. place in seven of the ten categories in market (Cbonds data). We also are among open-ended mutual investment Retail investors may obtain and make use of
the prestigious Thomson Reuters Extel the top 10 global coordinators/bookrunners funds and 1 closed-ended products and services such as mutual funds,
Pan-Europe 2011 Survey. operating in Russia (Dealogic data). commercial real estate investment internet trading, asset management, individual
fund. Troika Dialog’s mutual funds brokerage service, and pension savings
are some of the largest in Russia advisory via Troika Dialog’s own sales offices
and our company is the leader or 1,200 agent sales points throughout Russia. ALTERNATIVE
on the collective investments In addition, as part of its private banking INVESTMENTS
market, holding a 19.8% share service, Troika Dialog provides a wide range of
(according to Investfunds data as investment products to affluent individuals – Troika Dialog invests funds in the leading
of December 30, 2012; among from conservative investment strategies to companies of fast growing sectors: retail,
companies managing open-ended investments in structured products, real estate, financial sector, the media, healthcare,
mutual investment funds). innovation, commodities markets, individual foodstuffs production and packaging.
brokerage services, as well as advisory services. Besides this we manage four venture
funds with investment totalling $100 mln.
This money is invested in 9 companies of
the IT, new media and life science spheres.
D O S S I E R 7

7. 6 345
T H E R U S S I A F O R U M 2 0 1 2
DAYS THE FORUM WEB SITE:
51372 VISITORS, 226156 HITS
JOURNALISTS
278 41
35
SPEAKERS PEOPLE IN TOTAL COUNTRIES
DURING TWO DAYS FROM JANUARY, 31
TO FEBRUARY,1, 2469 1:1 MEETINGS WERE
ORGANIZED FOR REPRESENTATIVES OF 104 COMPANIES AUTOMOBILES*
42 AND 221 INVESTMENT FUNDS
3097
PANEL
DISCUSSIONS
DELEGATES
MEDIA PARTNERS
*35 MERCEDES-BENZ EXECUTIVE-CLASS AUTOMOBILES
WERE USED TO ORGANIZE VIP-TRANSFERS
S T A T I S T I C S S T A T I S T I C S 9

8. T H E R U S S I A F O R U M 2 0 1 2
WORKDAYS PROGRAM PANEL
THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 2ND DISCUSSIONS
TUESDAY, JANUARY 31ST WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 1ST VENUE:
MOSCOW INTERNATIONAL HOUSE OF MUSIC |
KOSMODAMIANSKAYA EMB., 52-8
VENUE: VENUE:
THE RITZ-CARLTON HOTEL THE RITZ-CARLTON HOTEL 07:30–09:00 REGISTRATION. WELCOME COFFEE FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 3RD
TVERSKAYA STR., 3 TVERSKAYA STR., 3 09:00–09:15 WHITE HALL.
Opening speech:
VENUE:
FULL DAY OF 1:1 MEETINGS FULL DAY OF 1:1 MEETINGS Herman Gref and Ruben
Vardanian MOSCOW INTERNATIONAL
PRIVATE THEMED CLIENT EVENTS PRIVATE THEMED CLIENT EVENTS
09:15–10:30 WHITE HALL. HOUSE OF MUSIC |
Plenary Session: Russia 2018: KOSMODAMIANSKAYA EMB., 52-8
at Vital Crossroads and
Challenges that Will Determine 08:00–09:50 WELCOME COFFEE
the Country’s Future
09:50–10:00 WHITE HALL. Opening speech:
08:00–14:00 WASHINGTON 1-2. 08:30–13:30 BALLROOM 1. 10:30–10:45 COFFEE BREAK Sergey Sobyanin
The Agenda for CEOs in a Time of Global A Look at Forex and Interest Rates: 10:45–12:00 WHITE HALL. 10:00–11:30 WHITE HALL. The Future of the Global
Risks and the Elections in Russia How to Reduce Financial Risks The Present and Future of Russian Oil: Economy and Financial System
CEO Challenges
GREEN HALL. Risk Management:
GREEN HALL. Myth or Reality?
08:45–12:30 MOSCOW 1-3. 09:00–15:00 MOSCOW 1-3.
Global Economic Ills and their Impact
Group meeting with management of Venture Capital: On the Crossroads BLUE HALL.A New Era in Mobile –
on the Social Framework
Sberbank: “Insights into Sberbank's Opportunity Knocks
BLUE HALL.
Business” 09:30–12:20 WASHINGTON 1-2. RED HALL. Where Does the Big Money Go?
Agriculture & Food: What Will the Future Bring?
The government’s objectives, regulatory 11:50–12:10 COFFEE BREAK
RED HALL.
10:00–13:30 BALLROOM 1. changes and tariff growth. Guarantees Privatization: Interim Results 12:10–13:30 WHITE HALL. Interest Rates, Exchange Rate and
Operational Excellence to investors ahead of privatisation in Liquidity: are there Resources for Investment?
12:00–13:00 LUNCH
the electricity sector GREEN HALL Which Emerging Technologies will
13:00–14:30 WHITE HALL.
Kill the Traditional Bank? Crowdsourcing, Big
14:30–17:00 ISTANBUL 1. Plenary Session: Russia’s
Data, Social Commerce, Artificial Intelligence?
Sberbank’s International Business: 09:30–12:30 ISTANBUL 1. Economic Policy
in a Time of Global Change BLUE HALL. Developed and Emerging Banks:
Opportunities on Markets of the Fundraising Possibilities on the Russian Market for
A Case of Irreversible Decline vs. Irrepressible Rise?
CIS and EAEC Foreign Issuers 14:30–15:00 COFFEE BREAK
RED HALL.
15:00–16:30 WHITE HALL.
Retail: Stabilization Period
Metals and Mining in the CIS:
15:00–17:45 WASHINGTON 1-2. 14:00–16:30 BALLROOM 1. 13:30–14:30 LUNCH
Development Prospects Amid
Modernization of the Cement Industry: The Russian Stock Market in 2012: Great Volatility 14:30–16:00 WHITE HALL.
How to Maintain a Balance of Interests Reset. New Opportunities for Investors Creating a Domestic Capital Base
GREEN HALL. Russia in Transition
BLUE HALL. What’s Moving the Real GREEN HALL Russia’s Gas Exports to Europe:
18:30–20:30 MOSCOW 1-3. Estate Market? New Challenges and Opportunities
Private Finance. Asset Allocation RED HALL. New Industrialization in Russia BLUE HALL. Transport and Infrastructure:
Reform at a Crossroads?
16:30–17:00 COFFEE BREAK
RED HALL. Troika Dialog: Investments in Art.
17:00–17:30 WHITE HALL.
Art Banking and Art Finance
Closing Speech: Gordon Brown
16:00–16:30 COFFEE BREAK
18:30–19:30 GREEN HALL. Round table:
“The Global Economy. Political Risks 16:30–18:00 WHITE HALL. The Role of Innovation Policy
and Choice of Capital” in Modernization
W O R K D A Y S W O R K D A Y S 1 1

9. T H E R U S S I A F O R U M 2 0 1 2
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
CHALLENGE THAT
RUSSIA WILL HAVE
TO CONFRONT IS THE
CHALLENGE OF LOW
EFFECTIVENESS .
civilisation, Russia will have to business environment. The deadlines for
encounter the same problems hooking up to power supply grids must
as other countries, noted be decreased by a factor of four. An
Vladimir Putin. accountant must complete tax returns
three times faster. The time required
None of the reasons for the for trucks to go through customs will
continued financial upheavals be reduced by six-sevenths. Obtaining
have been addressed. Moreover, a construction permit will be five times
the 2008 crisis has obviously faster than it is now, and there will be
entered a new stage, revealing three times less paperwork involved in
such large-scale in-depth problems the process.
as the debt crisis of corporations
and entire governments, and the The Prime Minister also touched on
imbalances of the financial sector, issues concerning the improvement
which has swelled out of proportion of the country’s investment climate.
and has become largely speculative There will be a businessmen’s rights
and far removed from economic commissioner in Russia and he/
realities. The upcoming decades will she will protect the rights of all
be a time of great challenges, risks and businesspeople, not just foreign
transformations. Russia, which is finally investors. The procedure for
joining the WTO in 2012, has all it takes reviewing cases in arbitration courts
to become a top five global economy in involving entrepreneurs must be
the near future. as fast as possible and the time it
takes to appeal court decisions by
Last year the Russian economy grew businessmen should be extended.
by over 4% (the best rate among G8 All rudimentary Soviet legal thinking
members and the best result among large should be removed from criminal law.
European economies). Russia’s inflation All the loopholes creating criminal
rate (6%) is the lowest in the last 20 years liability in economic disputes should
and is comparable to countries like Great be closed.
Britain. According to government forecasts,
in the next few years, inflation will lower The philosophy of oversight over
to 4%. businesses must be changed, and a
transition from various government
Russia, unlike the world’s major developed permits to liability insurance must
economies, has a budget surplus (approxi- take place. Public associations of
mately 1% of GDP). Sovereign debt is extremely businessmen should be entitled
low (only 10.4% of GDP) and external debt is to file legal claims to protect
as low as 2.5%. the interests of entrepreneurs.
Corporate legislation needs to
Vladimir Putin’s speech was devoted to the In addition to the current balanced economy and be harmonised with that of our
SPEECH OF issues of Russia’s development as part of the
global economy. The Prime Minister talked
solid macroeconomic indicators, the country also
enjoys basic, long-term and powerful advantages.
key partners, primarily in Europe,
across all positions.
VLADIMIR PUTIN, about plans for shaping and implementing
the country’s economic policy. At the same
time as trying to resolve its own problems
In the Prime Minister’s opinion, Russia’s core
resource consists of a talented, creative, well
trained and educated people.
That is what the first set of
measures proposed by Vladimir
PRIME MINISTER OF THE amid global transformation and against Putin, intended to increase the
the backdrop of new trends in the Russia needs to move up 100 spots in order to Russian economy's transparency,
RUSSIAN FEDERATION global economy, technology and go from 120th place to 20th place in terms of the looks like.
P A N E L D I S C U S S I O N S 1 3

10. T H E R U S S I A F O R U M 2 0 1 2
RUSSIA 2018 – AT VITAL businesses and prevents them from
properly developing. There is not
enough transparency in the work
LARS THUNELL COMMENTED that WTO entry
will help the evolutionary process continue,
but added that the state needs to involve the
The panel also reviewed the
changes now taking place in the
global economy and the serious
CROSSROADS AND CHALLENGES THAT of the state and state officials. This
needs to change so that the division
between state and private enterprises
private sector much more. He said the state
is now trying to drive too much, which keeps
the system overly bureaucratic and focused
challenges it faces. Against that
backdrop, the panelists reviewed
the particular challenges facing
WILL DETERMINE THE can be made and the work of the
bureaucrats can be forced to be more
efficient.
too much on the older, mainly commodity-
based, industries.
the Russian economy, especially
given the uncertainty over the
trend in oil revenues. The panelists
COUNTRY’S FUTURE FEBRUARY 2ND, THURSDAY
EAST OR WEST? Panelists generally
agreed that the clearest economic
ALEKSEI KUDRIN REFERRED to the fact
that the current political system is obsolete
and needs to change as part of the process
were asked if they consider it
possible, under such conditions,
to support economic growth in
growth opportunities lie to the east of building a new economy. He referred the country and, specifically, to
but that Russia should look much to current political changes as a very review what policy instruments
OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES ARE EQUALLY CLEAR . THE more to Europe for examples when positive development that will force faster the government has, and needs, to
PANEL CONCLUDED THAT RUSSIA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO building institutions and regulatory changes. He highlighted what he called achieve this goal.
GROW THE ECONOMY MORE STRONGLY AND WITH GREATER frameworks. the positive response from the prime
DIVERSIFICATION , AND THAT IT CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD minister.
THAT GOAL , ALBEIT FOLLOWING A SLOW EVOLUTIONARY PATH . SERGEI GURIEV SAID that the state
ONE OF THE MAIN CONCLUSIONS IS THAT THE STATE STILL ALEKSEI KUDRIN needs to speed up the privatization
HAS A ROLE IN CREATING A BETTER BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC process to reduce its dominant role in
ENVIRONMENT , BUT THEN SHOULD GET OUT OF THE WAY AND
HELP RATHER THAN HINDER OR COMPETE AGAINST PRIVATE
SERGEI GURIEV
ENTERPRISES .
THE PANELISTS IDENTIFIED A NUMBER
OF KEY CHALLENGES THAT THE
МОDERATOR: COUNTRY NEEDS TO ADDRESS IF THAT
RUBEN VARDANIAN
RUBEN VARDANIAN UNFULFILLED POTENTIAL IS TO BE KENNETH ROGOFF
President, Troika Dialog REALIZED. Regarding business startups,
Russia needs to make it much easier for THE LOSS OF HUMAN CAPITAL the economy. He said that Russia also needs
SERGEI GURIEV new businesses to start and grow. Right ALSO NEEDS TO BE REVERSED. to demonstrate very clearly that it is dealing
LARS H. THUNELL
Rector, New Economic School now this is too difficult and has resulted Russia continues to lose too many with issues such as corruption by speeding
in the economy remaining skewed of its most talented people every up the adoption of Article 20 of the UN
ALEKSEI KUDRIN toward large enterprises in extractive year, people who are starting up convention against corruption. He said there
Russian statesman industries. The SME segment is far too new businesses in other countries are some very public corruption scandals in
small and yet this is exactly the area that but should be doing so in Russia. Russia today where the state could act more
KENNETH ROGOFF needs to receive state help to grow. The panelists did, however, highlight decisively. He called for the release of ex-
Thomas D. Cabot Professor the fact that this is a normal trend in YUKOS chief Mikhail Khodorkovsky and the
of Public Policy and Professor CORRUPTION AND OVERLY BUREAU- developing economies where people firing of everybody involved in the case of
of Economics, Harvard University CRATIC PROCEDURES REMAIN MAJOR leave for better lives elsewhere but Hermitage lawyer Sergei Magnitsky.
OBSTACLES TO BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT. then, after 20–30 years, start to come
LARS H. THUNELL Panelists also identified the unpredictability back. The faster the state helps make it KENNETH ROGOFF HIGHLIGHTED the fact
Executive Vice President & CEO, factor in Russia, stating that the lack of clear easier to do business in Russia, especially that while Russia’s annualized growth (4.0%
International Finance Corporation rules and fair arbitration too often puts off to start a business, the sooner the trend expected in 2012) is very good compared
foreign investors. Panelists identified the will reverse here also. with developed markets and most other
lack of clearer guidance from the state and developing economies, Russia is capable of
sometimes poor behavior, arguing that this THERE IS TOO OFTEN A LACK OF A CLEAR much more. He said that Russia should have,
fosters equally bad behavior across the DIVISION BETWEEN STATE AND PRIVATE and needs to develop, new export-led growth
economy. ENTERPRISE. This usually hurts private in such areas as hi-tech.
P A N E L D I S C U S S I O N S 1 5

11. T H E R U S S I A F O R U M 2 0 1 2
THE PRESENT AND
FEBRUARY 2ND, THURSDAY
FUTURE OF ALEXANDER KORSIK
RUSSIAN OIL:
CEO CHALLENGES
ARSEN IDRISOV
SERGEY
GORKOV LEONID FEDUN
THE PANEL HIGHLIGHTED
SEVERAL DISAGREEMENTS
AMONG A VERY DISPARATE
GROUP OF PEOPLE – FROM
A CHIEF ECONOMIST AT A
GLOBAL OIL MAJOR TO A
GOVERNMENT OFFICIAL TO
CEOS OF BOTH STATE -
OWNED AND PRIVATE RUSSIAN
MAJORS .
DMITRY KONOV
MIKHAIL GUTSERIEV
MODERATOR: Gazprom Neft, added that the system should
SERGEY GORKOV evolve toward profit-based (not revenue-
Deputy Chairman of the Board, based) taxes.
Sberbank
SERGEY KUDRYASHOV FINALLY, THERE WAS NO SINGLE VIEW ON
ALEXANDER DYUKOV THE FUTURE FOR RUSSIAN OIL. Kudryashov
CEO, Gazprom Neft insisted that the era of easy oil is still with
LEONID FEDUN us – the country has got the reserves, the
Vice President, LUKOIL technology, the people and the experience,
MIKHAIL GUTSERIEV CHRISTOF RUEHL, CHIEF ECONOMIST demand in the emerging world would he said. Not so, countered RussNeft
President, RussNeft AT BP, KICKED OFF THE SESSION by be balanced by slowing consumption in President Mikhail Gutseriev: the education
ARSEN IDRISOV projecting that global oil consumption developed countries. of industry managers in the country is
ALEXANDER DYUKOV
Managing Director, Alliance Oil Company will grow at a compound rate of 0.6% at a “fetal stage,” he said. And Ruehl CHRISTOF RUEHL
DMITRY KONOV per year to 2030, and that 90% of NOR DID THE PANELISTS SEE EYE TO EYE pointed out that all of the breakthrough
General Director, SIBUR LLC additional demand will come from ON RUSSIAN-SPECIFIC TAX POLICIES. technological solutions of recent years –
ALEXANDER KORSIK India and China. However, Dmitry Sergey Kudryashov, the deputy energy from multistage fracking and horizontal
President, Bashneft Konov, the CEO of SIBUR, pointed minister, claimed that the targeted tax drilling that allowed the unlocking of the
SERGEY KUDRYASHOV out that consumption is likely to reductions on the Vankor, Verkhnechonsk shale deposits, to deepwater production –
Deputy Energy Minister moderate as it runs into capacity and Talakan fields have worked their magic, were originally developed in the most
CHRISTOF RUEHL constraints. Some of the estimates boosting overall output after a decline in competitive upstream markets, such as
Group Chief Economist and for growth in Indian car demand 2008. But Bashneft CEO Alexander Korsik the US or Canada. The Russian tax system
Vice President, BP that he has seen would imply said the targeted solutions do not ultimately should be tilted toward stimulating such
that there are not enough roads work because the state cannot do a better competition, he said.
in India today to even park – job of picking the winning fields than could
much less convey – half the the oil companies themselves. He would
expected number of vehicles. prefer a universal system of lower brownfield
He also expects that higher taxation. His colleague, Alexander Dyukov of
P A N E L D I S C U S S I O N S 1 7