While there is no new regulatory data available this quarter, BMI has updated our forecasts for the mobile, mobile ARPU and fixed-line markets based on fresh data sourced from Denmark's fixed-line, mobile and broadband operators, supplementing earlier data from the National IT and Telecom Agency (NITA).

1. Denmark Telecommunications Report Q4 2011
Published:November 2011
No.Of Pages:105
Price:US $ 530
While there is no new regulatory data available this quarter, BMI has updated our forecasts
for the mobile, mobile ARPU and fixed-line markets based on fresh data sourced from
Denmark's fixed-line, mobile and broadband operators, supplementing earlier data from the
National IT and Telecom Agency (NITA). In addition to updated Denmark
Telecommunications Market forecasts and data analysis, we have included operator tables
for converged service provision for the first time, detailing the recent performance of the
incumbent, TDC’s and TeliaSonera’s wireline performance.
Following four quarters of successive subscriber losses from Q210 to Q111, losing a total of
a quarter of a million subscribers, the mobile market returned to growth in Q211. There
were 173,00 net additions, taking the total to 6.836mn. However, with penetration
remaining above 120% we do not believe this quarter of net additions signals a return to
growth in the market. Instead we expect the market to continue to experience subscriber
losses over the medium term, punctuated by quarters of net additions. It is not possible to
forecast when inactive subscriber discounting will occur, and we therefore forecast slow
steady declines in subscriptions However, in reality we expect quarterly growth to
demonstrate considerably more volatility.
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Meanwhile, the market for traditional fixed-line services based on PSTN and ISDN
technology has been shrinking, due to the growing use of substitute services such as mobile
broadband. During the next five years, we forecast that Denmark’s fixed-line market will
shrink at annual average growth of 5.8%.Within fixed-line we expect VoIP to account for an
increasing share of total subscriptions as customers are attracted to the service through
bundled service packages including pay-TV and broadband services. By the end of 2015 we
expect penetration to fall to 33.2% (new population forecasts resulted in higher penetration
rates despite reining in of our fixed-line usage forecasts even further). Denmark's fixed
broadband market appears to heading for a downtrend with TDC and Telenor reporting
subscriber net losses despite efforts to offer a wider range of attractively-priced bundles.
BMI believes the decline in fixed broadband subscriptions is the result of increased use of
wireless broadband access technologies.
The use of xDSL fixed broadband services is not yet in decline. However, growth has slowed
considerably to about 1.5% a year and it is mobile broadband that now accounts for the
majority of net additions. Fibre, which is now the third-largest form of fixed broadband
access, is growing steadily, as is WIMAX. However, the latter is starting from a much
smaller user base and is likely to fall from favour as UMTS/LTE technologies become more
widely used. In the long term, although we expect slow growth in fixed broadband, we do
not expect growth to turn negative because we believe it will be supported by the
proliferation of converged services that bundle broadband with pay-TV and fixed voice
services. We forecast the overall broadband market will serve almost 4mn subscribers by
2015, with mobile connections likely to be accounting for more than half of those
subscribers.

2. Table Of Contents
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Denmark Mobile SWOT Analysis 6
Denmark Wireline SWOT Analysis . 7
Denmark Political SWOT . 8
Denmark Economic SWOT ... 8
Business Environment Analysis 9
Western Europe Business Environment Ratings, Q411: Little Change As Economic Woes
Weigh Heavily ... 9
Western Europe Risk Reward Ratings, Q411 .. 9
Denmark 12
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 14
Mobile 14
Table: Denmark Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data & Forecasts 14
Mobile ARPU .. 16
Table: Denmark Telecoms Sector – Monthly Blended Mobile ARPU (DKK) – Historical Data &
Forecasts ... 16
Fixed Line .. 18
Table: Denmark Telecoms Sector – Fixed Line – Historical Data & Forecasts .. 18
Internet .. 20
Table: Denmark Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data & Forecasts ... 20
Market Data Analysis .. 22
Mobile 22
Table: Denmark Mobile Market, Q211 ... 23
Table: Denmark Mobile Net Additions (‘000), H111 .. 25
Customer Divisions ... 26
ARPU 28
3G . 30
LTE (4G) . 33
Mobile Contract Wins . 34
Table: Mobile Contract Wins 34
Mobile Operator Tables . 36
Table: Market . 36
Table: TDC . 36
Table: Telenor Denmark . 37
Table: TeliaSonera ... 38
Table: 3 Denmark . 40
Mobile Content 41
Regional Outlook .. 41
Table: Smart Meter Race Is On 44
Country Outlook ... 45
Value-Added Services Timeline. 49
Table: Selected VAS Services 49
Fixed Line .. 50
Broadband . 54
Table: Fixed Broadband Accesses By Technology Type, 2008-2010 . 56
Table: Broadband Subscribers By Service Provider, 2009-2010 . 57
Cable TV . 58
FTTH 59
WiMAX . 60

3. Mobile Broadband 60
Wireline Contract Wins .. 61
Table: Wireline Contract Wins . 61
Table: TDC . 62
Table: TeliaSonera ... 63
Regulatory Environment. 64
Overview . 64
Denmark: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities . 64
Legislation .. 65
Recent Developments 66
Competitive Landscape .. 69
Market Overview . 69
Table: Key Players – Denmark Telecoms Sector 69
Table: Selected Operator Financial Parameters 69
Company Monitor .. 70
In Europe, Fibre's The Thing For Nexans 70
Operator Profiles ... 74
TDC .. 74
Telenor Denmark .. 80
Telia Denmark 87
Hi3G Denmark . 93
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview ... 95
Fixed Line .. 95
Table: Regional Fixed-line Penetration Overview .. 95
Internet .. 96
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview 97
Mobile 98
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview . 99
Glossary Of Terms 100
Table: Glossary Of Terms ..100
BMI Methodology 101
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .101
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts .101
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings 103
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 103
Table: Ratings Indicators ..104
Weighting ...105
Table: Weighting Of Indicators ...105
Sources 105
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