4. MAKING SENSE OF THE FUTURE
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The STRATEGIC FORUM Scenarios
FOR THE BUILDING INDUSTRY: 2008-2020 HIGH ROAD
COLUMBUS SCENARIO
Property a PREFERRED Investment
Home Ownership PREFERRED
Trends in the Building Industry are inextricably BUOYANT GROWTH
responsive to, and influenced by INVESTMENT CLIMATE, Backlogs eliminated by 2015
BOUYANT GROWTH INVESTOR CONFIDENCE and PROPERTY DELIVERY.
> 5 % PA
GDFI > 25 % UPPER MIDDLE ROAD
Investor Confidence
OF GDP APOLLO SCENARIO
SUBSIDIES
3 - 5 % OF BUDGET
Property a GOOD Investment
Home Ownership DESIRED
AVERAGE GROWTH AVERAGE GROWTH
2 - 5 % PA
GDFI 20 - 25 %
Erosion of Backlogs
OF GDP
SUBSIDIES LOWER MIDDLE ROAD
2 - 3 % OF BUDGET
SOYUZ SCENARIO
LOW GROWTH Property an AVERAGE Investment
0 - 2 % PA Home Ownership QUESTIONED
GDFI 15 - 20 %
OF GDP
LOW GROWTH
SUBSIDIES Keeping pace with Population
1 - 2 % OF BUDGET
NEGATIVE GROWTH
LOW ROAD
< 0 % PA CHALLENGER SCENARIO
GDFI < 15 % Property a POOR Investment
OF GDP
SUBSIDIES
Home Ownership AVOIDED
< 1 % OF BUDGET NEGATIVE GROWTH
Investment Climate Increasing BACKLOGS
PROPERTY A POOR INVESTMENT / AVERAGE / GOOD / A PREFERRED INVESTMENT
BMI-BRSCU Paradigm Regression Paradigm Paralysis Paradigm Shift Paradigm Reinvention
5. ANIMAL SPIRITS AND CONFIDENCE
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The MFA Composite Leading Indicator for the South African Building Industry (CLIBI)
recorded a peak of 69 in late 2004. The index dropped to 26 in 2009, reflecting a lower
turning point. This building indicator then moved sideways during the next eighteen
months. It rose to a level of 33 in the fourth quarter of 2011. The current reading for
the first quarter of 2012 is 37. This finding suggests that the long-awaited revival in the
South African building industry is presently underway.
?
6. ANIMAL SPIRITS AND CONFIDENCE
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George A. Akerlof is the Daniel E. Koshland
Sr. Distinguished Professor of Economics at
the University of California, Berkeley. He
was awarded the 2001 Nobel
Prize in Economics.
Robert Shiller is the best-selling Author of
Irrational Exuberance and The Subprime
Solution (both Princeton). He is the Arthur
M. Okun Professor of Economics at
Yale University.
BMI-BRSCU
8. ANIMAL SPIRITS AND CONFIDENCE
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How the Macro Economy behaves
• The current model fills only the top right hand box; it answers the question:
How does the economy behave if people only have economic
motives and if they respond to them rationally?
• But that leads immediately to three more questions, corresponding to the
three blank boxes: How does the economy behave with non-
economic motives and rational responses? With economic motives
and irrational responses? With non-economic motives and irrational
responses?
• Akerlof & Shiller believe that the answers to the most important questions
regarding how the macro economy behaves and what we ought to do when
it misbehaves lie largely (though not exclusively) within those three
blank boxes)
• Their description of the economy fits the qualitative as well as the
quantitative facts, better than a macro-economics that leaves out
irrational behaviour and non-economic motives.
• Thus, they occasionally use statistics but for the most part, rely on
history and on stories. (Akerlof & Shiller: 2009: 168)
13. COURAGEOUS LEADERSHIP
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It is hoped that business leaders will also find their voices to speak out boldly. In
this regard, the recent comments by Dr Johann Rupert to the Anton Rupert
memorial lecture, was enlightening.
“I’ve kept my word to Mamphela Ramphele, who
said that whites should start speaking out a little bit
without having the fear of being branded racists.”
Quoting from his own experience he went on to say that even “Big Business with
Government” meetings were orchestrated “powerpoint exchanges”. It was not
frank dialogue.
“And whenever any of us wanted to speak out our
fellow businessmen made sure that we were kept
quiet. So even the business leaders were very
reluctant to criticise, preferring the lobbying route.”
(Business Times, 26 October 2008).
BMI-BRSCU
14. COURAGEOUS LEADERSHIP
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Ramphele said it was astounding that SA’s business
sector had remained largely silent, even on
failures that directly affected it.
This included the system of 23 sectoral education and
training authorities (Setas), funded by a levy of 1% of
payroll for businesses with an annual turnover of more than
R500 000, that was “clearly not working”. (Business Day, 3
December 2008)
The Setas, the labour department’s near-destruction of SA’s working
apprenticeship system and SA’s further education and training (FET)
colleges were producing “unemployable” graduates. This was
because there was not enough synergy between the college
curricula and industry needs.
“The private sector is too scared to upset (the
government) ... but its silence is creating the seeds of social
instability. Our people can’t read, write, or be usefully engaged,” she
said. (Business Day, 3 December 2008)
BMI-BRSCU
15. COURAGEOUS LEADERSHIP
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“We need more civil society mobilisation. We can’t let people
lie to us about what they are going to do with our taxes, and
keep on voting for them.”
What SA required was strong leadership of the enabling kind, instead
of the traditional authoritarian kind, Ramphele said. The country’s leadership
needed to create a milieu in which South Africans could commit to tackling the
country’s dilemmas collaboratively. (Business Day, 3 December 2008)
(Other) conundrums included how to develop a professional, performance-
based, civil service; how to create an inclusive society while redressing
lingering historical imbalances; and how to deal with the “huge” unintended
consequences of some of the government’s “very good” policies.
These policies included black economic empowerment
(BEE), and the mass dismissal of white professionals from the
civil service, particularly the country’s engineers. (Business Day, 3
December 2008)
BMI-BRSCU
16. COURAGEOUS LEADERSHIP
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Khoza, writing in Nedbank's latest annual
report . . . , said the country's “strange
breed” of leadership needed to adhere to the
institutions that underpinned democracy.
The political climate was not a picture of an
accountable democracy, he said.
“Our political leadership’s moral quotient is
degenerating and we are fast losing the
checks and balances that are necessary to
prevent a recurrence of the past.”
Khoza said South Africans had a duty to build
and develop the nation, but also to hold their
leaders accountable.
“We have a duty to build and develop this
nation and to call to book the putative
leaders who, due to sheer incapacity, cannot
deal with the complexity of 21st century
governance and leadership, cannot lead,”
said Khoza. (Busreo.co.za Newsletter, 6 April 2012)
BMI-BRSCU
17. COURAGEOUS LEADERSHIP
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Business . . . challenged as wrong a suggestion
by the ANC that business must leave politics to
politicians.
“We disagree in the strongest possible terms
with the idea that business leaders should not
participate in our nation’s political discourse,”
said director for Business Leadership of South
Africa Friede Dowe in a statement.
“Businesses are corporate citizens. They and
the individuals who lead particular businesses
have not only a constitutional right of equal
importance but also a patriotic duty to join the
debate about a post transition South Africa.
“To suggest that politics should be left to
politicians is just wrong.” (Busrep.co.za, 6 April
2012)
BMI-BRSCU
18. www.strategicforum.co.za
“. . . the Board is there to understand
the big picture, to understand the
relationship of the business with the
society, particularly with the
environmental issues, particularly with
the political issues, but to think in 30
year terms, not to think in three-year
terms.” (Bobby Godsell in Gleason:
2011: 149)
“I see myself as a person with vision in
our industry about building things and
innovating things and that is not a CEO
function necessarily” (Adrian Gore in
Gleason: 2011; 164)
19. www.strategicforum.co.za
“A mission statement in a
corporate sense is a
definition of purpose: it
circumscribes and defines
what you do. In a personal
sense a mission
statement, as opposed to
goals, is not what you want
to have, it’s not even what
you want to do, it’s who you
want to be, and that takes
some thinking.” (Mark
Lamberti in Gleason: 2011:
149)
20. COURAGEOUS LEADERSHIP
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Building: The Engine for
Growth and Wealth
Modeling Creation. Property a
cooperative preferred investment
behaviour
REINVENTION
Skills Training
and
INDUSTRY Development
Government Labour
Leadership, Enterprise
Lobbying, Development,
Advocacy BEE
Management
Cross
Training and
Productive functional
Development
capacity Networking
Alliances,
Joint Ventures
The Hot Spot Scenario: mapping emergence
(Based on Gratton: 2007: 145)
21. COURAGEOUS LEADERSHIP
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The more peers we can bring online for
the business of saving the world, the Building: The Engine for
easier the effort will be, and in a Growth and Wealth
Modeling
sense, the stronger we will each be. Creation. Property a
cooperative preferred investment
(Ramo: 2009: 240)behaviour
REINVENTION
Skills Training
and
INDUSTRY Development
Government Labour
Leadership, Enterprise
Lobbying, Development,
Advocacy Research has indicated that we can create jobs in six priority
BEE
areas. These are infrastructure
development, agriculture, mining and
Management beneficiation, manufacturing, the green economy and
Cross
Training and tourism.
Productive functional
Development We cannot create these jobs alone. We have to work
capacity Networking
with business, labour and the community
Alliances,
Joint Ventures
constituencies. (Pres Jacob Zuma: SONA: 2011)
The Hot Spot Scenario: mapping emergence
(Based on Gratton: 2007: 145)