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THE STRATEGIC FORUM
                                         www.strategicforum.co.za

              Studium Ad Prosperandum

                                                    ••   BUILDING RESEARCH
                                                         BUILDING RESEARCH
                                               BMI
                                                BMI      STRATEGY CONSULTING
                                                         STRATEGY CONSULTING
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                                     
              Voluntas in Conveniendum                   Reg. No. 2002/105109/23




                            THE STRATEGIC FORUM
                               A place of assembly
                           for strategic conversations

                                             Towards
    Making sense of the Building-, Construction- and Property-Industry:
 THE ROLE OF POLITICS ON THE BUILDING INDUSTRY
                                    Dr. Llewellyn B. Lewis
                                          APRIL 2012
BMI-BRSCU
                                                                                   © BMI-BRSCU
www.strategicforum.co.za

                                              PROPERTY OWNERSHIP
      LISTED PROPERTY SECTOR                  ENGINE FOR GROWTH                         EMPLOYMENT
       MARKET CAPITALISATION                 AND WEALTH CREATION               IN BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION
           > R100 BILLION                 R3,8 TRILLION RES PROPERTY                 > 1 000 000 PEOPLE
                                        R1,3 TRILLION NON RES PROPERTY


PRIMARY AND SECONDARY PROPERTY
              MARKET                           ANNUAL HOUSING
                                                     NEED                           URBAN HOUSING
    R267 BILLION PA MORTGAGE                                                      BACKLOG > 2,3 MILLION
           ADVANCES PA                       (POP. GROWTH ONLY)
                                                                                      UNITS IN 2010
    R1000 BIO MORTGAGES O/S                         250 000
                                            INTEGRATED HOUSING

            FTHB SUBSIDIES
   (1,9% OF BUDGET = R13,8 BILLION)            RESIDENTIAL AND                       BUILDING INV.
       (500 000 HOUSING UNITS)                 NON RES BPP AND                      R108,5* BILLION
 INVESTMENT IN AFFORDABLE HOUSING          BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC)                 (20,8% OF GFCF)
       (R1,4 TRILLION 2010-2020)


     GOVERNMENT BUDGET                                                                   GFCF
                                                    GDP
        R798,9 BILLION                                                              R521,6 BILLION
                                                R2663 BILLION                        (22% OF GDP)
         (30% OF GDP)

                                                 GOVERNMENT                           CONSTR. INV.
         TRANSFER DUTY
                                            INFRASTRUCTURE SPEND                     R174,9 BILLION
        R8- R9 BILLION PA
                                            (R846 BILLION 2010-2020)                (33,5% OF GDFI)
 * When the UNRECORDED Home Improvement and Affordable Housing is taken into
 account Building Investment = 30,5% of GFCF                                                   © © BMI-BRSCU
                                                                                                 BMI-BRSCU
www.strategicforum.co.za

                                               PROPERTY OWNERSHIP
        LISTED PROPERTY SECTOR                 ENGINE FOR GROWTH                         EMPLOYMENT
         MARKET CAPITALISATION                           It is estimated that for every R1 CONSTRUCTION
                                              AND WEALTH CREATION               IN BUILDING & spent on
             > R100 BILLION                R3,8 TRILLION RES PROPERTY
“Unless the Housing Market                               infrastructure, R1.40 is added to aPEOPLE
                                         R1,3 TRILLION NON RES PROPERTY
                                                                                      > 1 000 000 country’s

recovers, the Economy will not                       gross domestic product. PPP’s are the ideal
PRIMARY AND SECONDARY PROPERTY
recover.” (Warren Buffet, CNN, 4 October
                                                     vehicle for funding the gaps in infrastructure
              MARKET                           ANNUAL HOUSING
2011)
    R267 BILLION PA MORTGAGE                       NEEDAfrica. (Deloittes research, May 2011)
                                                     in                          URBAN HOUSING
                                              (POP. GROWTH ONLY)                   BACKLOG > 1,5 MILLION
           ADVANCES PA                                                                 UNITS IN 2010
    R1000 BIO MORTGAGES O/S                          250 000
                                             INTEGRATED HOUSING

             FTHB SUBSIDIES
    (1,9% OF BUDGET = R13,8 BILLION)            RESIDENTIAL AND                       BUILDING INV.
        (500 000 HOUSING UNITS)                 NON RES BPP AND                      R108,5* BILLION
  INVESTMENT IN AFFORDABLE HOUSING          BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC)                 (20,8% OF GFCF)
        (R1,4 TRILLION 2010-2020)


    GOVERNMENT BUDGET                                                                     GFCF
                                                     GDP
       R798,9 BILLION                                                                R521,6 BILLION
The UK Government plan to promote                R2663 BILLION                        (22% OF GDP)
        (30% OF GDP)
building. “It clearly has recognised the
need to boost house building, both to GOVERNMENT
                                                                                       CONSTR. INV.
addressTRANSFER DUTY crisis and to
         the housing                           INFRASTRUCTURE SPEND                   R174,9 BILLION
       R8- R9 BILLION PA
create jobs.” (Business Day, 22 November 2011) (R846 BILLION 2010-2020)              (33,5% OF GDFI)
 * When the UNRECORDED Home Improvement and Affordable Housing is taken into
 account Building Investment = 30,5% of GFCF                                                    © © BMI-BRSCU
                                                                                                  BMI-BRSCU
MAKING SENSE OF THE FUTURE
                                                           www.strategicforum.co.za

                                           The STRATEGIC FORUM Scenarios
                                        FOR THE BUILDING INDUSTRY: 2008-2020                                     HIGH ROAD
                                                                                                           COLUMBUS SCENARIO
                                                                                                      Property a PREFERRED Investment
                                                                                                        Home Ownership PREFERRED
                                                   Trends in the Building Industry are inextricably          BUOYANT GROWTH
                                              responsive to, and influenced by INVESTMENT CLIMATE,       Backlogs eliminated by 2015
  BOUYANT GROWTH                                 INVESTOR CONFIDENCE and PROPERTY DELIVERY.
        > 5 % PA
      GDFI > 25 %                                                                                          UPPER MIDDLE ROAD
                       Investor Confidence
        OF GDP                                                                                              APOLLO SCENARIO
       SUBSIDIES
  3 - 5 % OF BUDGET
                                                                                                        Property a GOOD Investment
                                                                                                         Home Ownership DESIRED
  AVERAGE GROWTH                                                                                            AVERAGE GROWTH
        2 - 5 % PA
      GDFI 20 - 25 %
                                                                                                            Erosion of Backlogs
         OF GDP
        SUBSIDIES                                                                                          LOWER MIDDLE ROAD
   2 - 3 % OF BUDGET
                                                                                                              SOYUZ SCENARIO
     LOW GROWTH                                                                                       Property an AVERAGE Investment
        0 - 2 % PA                                                                                     Home Ownership QUESTIONED
      GDFI 15 - 20 %
         OF GDP
                                                                                                               LOW GROWTH
        SUBSIDIES                                                                                       Keeping pace with Population
   1 - 2 % OF BUDGET

  NEGATIVE GROWTH
                                                                                                                LOW ROAD
        < 0 % PA                                                                                          CHALLENGER SCENARIO
      GDFI < 15 %                                                                                       Property a POOR Investment
        OF GDP
       SUBSIDIES
                                                                                                         Home Ownership AVOIDED
   < 1 % OF BUDGET                                                                                          NEGATIVE GROWTH
                                                 Investment Climate                                        Increasing BACKLOGS


                       PROPERTY A POOR INVESTMENT / AVERAGE / GOOD / A PREFERRED INVESTMENT
BMI-BRSCU              Paradigm Regression Paradigm Paralysis Paradigm Shift Paradigm Reinvention
ANIMAL SPIRITS AND CONFIDENCE
                                  www.strategicforum.co.za

The MFA Composite Leading Indicator for the South African Building Industry (CLIBI)
recorded a peak of 69 in late 2004. The index dropped to 26 in 2009, reflecting a lower
turning point. This building indicator then moved sideways during the next eighteen
months. It rose to a level of 33 in the fourth quarter of 2011. The current reading for
the first quarter of 2012 is 37. This finding suggests that the long-awaited revival in the
South African building industry is presently underway.




                                                                                     ?
ANIMAL SPIRITS AND CONFIDENCE
                   www.strategicforum.co.za




                                George A. Akerlof is the Daniel E. Koshland
                                Sr. Distinguished Professor of Economics at
                                the University of California, Berkeley. He
                                was awarded the 2001 Nobel
                                Prize in Economics.
                                Robert Shiller is the best-selling Author of
                                Irrational Exuberance and The Subprime
                                Solution (both Princeton). He is the Arthur
                                M. Okun Professor of       Economics at
                                Yale University.




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ANIMAL SPIRITS AND CONFIDENCE
                                     www.strategicforum.co.za


                         How the Macro Economy behaves
    Rational



                 Economic theory incorporating
                                                       Conventional Economic Theory
                 “Animal Spirits”.



                                             Akerlof & Shiller believe that the answers to
                                             the most important questions regarding how
                                             the macro economy behaves and what we
                                             ought to do when it misbehaves lie largely
                 Economic theory incorporating     Economic theory incorporating
                                             (though not exclusively) within the three white
                 “Animal Spirits”.           boxes)“Animal Spirits”.
RESPONS
Irrational




               Non Economic                                              Economic
               MOTIVES                                                                © BMI-BRSCU
ANIMAL SPIRITS AND CONFIDENCE
                                  www.strategicforum.co.za


                     How the Macro Economy behaves

•   The current model fills only the top right hand box; it answers the question:
    How does the economy behave if people only have economic
    motives and if they respond to them rationally?
•   But that leads immediately to three more questions, corresponding to the
    three blank boxes: How does the economy behave with non-
    economic motives and rational responses? With economic motives
    and irrational responses? With non-economic motives and irrational
    responses?
•   Akerlof & Shiller believe that the answers to the most important questions
    regarding how the macro economy behaves and what we ought to do when
    it misbehaves lie largely (though not exclusively) within those three
    blank boxes)
•   Their description of the economy fits the qualitative as well as the
    quantitative facts, better than a macro-economics that leaves out
    irrational behaviour and non-economic motives.
• Thus, they occasionally use statistics but for the most part, rely on
  history and on stories. (Akerlof & Shiller: 2009: 168)
ANIMAL SPIRITS AND CONFIDENCE
                                     www.strategicforum.co.za




                                               We are facing the same problem today as in the
                                                  later years of the Great Depression – business
                                                  today is inhibited by uncertainty about
Animal Spirits drive almost everything.
                                                  the future, about the tolerance of an
Animal Spirits are more
                  than                              angry public, about a disaffected labour
just confidence as                                  force, and about what further
                                                    government actions may be coming.
measured by confidence
indicators.                                    Animal Spirits are the forces that drives all of
                                                   this.
                                               Five psychological factors are of particular
Declining Animal Spirits are the principal         importance;
reason for the recent severe economic
crisis.
                                               1. Confidence;
                                               2. Fairness;
(Akerlof and Shiller: 2009: vii)
                                               3. Corruption and bad faith;
                                               4. Money illusion; and
                                               5. Stories. (Akerlof and Shiller: 2009: ix)


                                                                                              © BMI-BRSCU
ANIMAL SPIRITS AND CONFIDENCE
                                     www.strategicforum.co.za

                                                        If this is what we mean by confidence, then we see
                                                              immediately why, if it varies over time, it
A confident prediction is one that projects                   should play a major role in the business cycle.
the future to be rosy; an unconfident                         Why?
prediction projects the future as bleak.
                                                        In good times, people trust. They make decisions
                                                             spontaneously. They know instinctively that
But if we look up confidence in the                          they will be successful. They suspend their
dictionary, we see that it is more than a                    suspicions.
prediction. The dictionary says that it means
                                                        Asset values will be high and perhaps also
“trust” or “full belief”.                                   increasing. As long as people remain
                                                            trusting, their impulsiveness will not be
The word comes from the Latin                               evident.
“fido”, meaning “I trust”.
                                                        But then, when the confidence disappears, the tide
                                                             goes out. The nakedness of their decisions
The confidence crisis that we are in at the                  stand revealed.
moment is also called a “credit crisis”. The
                                                        When people are confident, they go out and buy;
word “credit” derives from the Latin                       when they are unconfident they
“credo”, meaning “I believe”. (Akerlof and                 withdraw, and they sell.
Shiller: 2009: 12)
                                                        Economic history is full of such cycles of
                                                           confidence followed by withdrawal
                                                                (Akerlof and Shiller: 2009: 12,13)

                                                                                                     © BMI-BRSCU
ANIMAL SPIRITS AND CONFIDENCE
                                      www.strategicforum.co.za

                                                         The real problem is the conventional wisdom that
                                                              underlies so much of current economic theory.
The theory of animal spirits provides an                      So many members of the macro economics and
answer to a conundrum:                                        finance profession have gone so far in the
                                                              direction of rational expectations and efficient
                                                              markets, that they fail to consider the most
1.          Why did most of us utterly fail to                important dynamics underlying economic
foresee the current economic crisis?                          crises. Failing to incorporate animal spirits into
2.          How can we understand this                        the model, can blind us to the real sources of
                                                              trouble. (Akerlof & Shiller : 2009 : 167)
crisis, when it seems to have come out of the
blue with no cause?                                      What has happened in the current financial
3.          Why have the measures to forestall              crisis, corresponds to what causes most of our
it falling short, while the economic authorities            economic ups and downs: over-confidence
                                                            followed by under-confidence. The story in
publically express surprise at their                        this case was that the price of housing had
ineffectiveness?                                            never declined (that is only a story, and it is
                                                            actually untrue) and therefore, that it would
                                                            just continue to go up and up. There was
We need to answer these questions if we are                 nothing to lose. This is the story of our time; it
to feel any confidence in economic policy in                is the story of the business cycle that began in
the (future). (Akerlof and Shiller: 2009: 167)              2001. (Akerlof & Shiller, 2009 : 170)




                                                                                                   © BMI-BRSCU
ANIMAL SPIRITS AND CONFIDENCE
                                    www.strategicforum.co.za


For some reason in the late 1990s and early 2000s, the idea that homes and
apartments were spectacular investments, gained a stronghold on the public
imagination in the United States and many other countries as well.

Not only did prices escalate, but there was palpable excitement about real estate
investments; one     could see the animal spirits in action
everywhere.
It was the biggest home price boom in U.S. history. It extended over nearly a
decade, beginning in the late 1990s.

Prices nearly doubled before the bust began in 2006. While it lasted, this spectacular
boom mirrored in other countries as well, helped               drive the entire world
economy and its stock markets.
In its wake, it has left the biggest real estate crisis since the 1930s. The so-called
sub-prime crisis, as well as a global financial crisis, the full dimensions of which still
have to be grasped. (Akerlof and Shiller: 2009: 149)                             © BMI-BRSCU
COURAGEOUS LEADERSHIP
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It is hoped that business leaders will also find their voices to speak out boldly. In
this regard, the recent comments by Dr Johann Rupert to the Anton Rupert
memorial lecture, was enlightening.

    “I’ve kept my word to Mamphela Ramphele, who
    said that whites should start speaking out a little bit
    without having the fear of being branded racists.”
Quoting from his own experience he went on to say that even “Big Business with
Government” meetings were orchestrated “powerpoint exchanges”. It was not
frank dialogue.

    “And whenever any of us wanted to speak out our
    fellow businessmen made sure that we were kept
    quiet. So even the business leaders were very
    reluctant to criticise, preferring the lobbying route.”
    (Business Times, 26 October 2008).
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                      Ramphele said it was astounding that SA’s business
                      sector had remained largely silent, even on
                      failures that directly affected it.

                      This included the system of 23 sectoral education and
                      training authorities (Setas), funded by a levy of 1% of
                      payroll for businesses with an annual turnover of more than
                      R500 000, that was “clearly not working”. (Business Day, 3
                      December 2008)




            The Setas, the labour department’s near-destruction of SA’s working
            apprenticeship system and SA’s further education and training (FET)
            colleges were producing “unemployable” graduates. This was
            because there was not enough synergy between the college
            curricula and industry needs.

            “The private sector is too scared to upset (the
            government) ... but its silence is creating the seeds of social
            instability. Our people can’t read, write, or be usefully engaged,” she
            said. (Business Day, 3 December 2008)
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“We need more civil society mobilisation. We can’t let people
lie to us about what they are going to do with our taxes, and
keep on voting for them.”

What SA required was strong leadership of the enabling kind, instead
of the traditional authoritarian kind, Ramphele said. The country’s leadership
needed to create a milieu in which South Africans could commit to tackling the
country’s dilemmas collaboratively. (Business Day, 3 December 2008)



  (Other) conundrums included how to develop a professional, performance-
  based, civil service; how to create an inclusive society while redressing
  lingering historical imbalances; and how to deal with the “huge” unintended
  consequences of some of the government’s “very good” policies.

  These policies included black economic empowerment
  (BEE), and the mass dismissal of white professionals from the
  civil service, particularly the country’s engineers. (Business Day, 3
  December 2008)

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COURAGEOUS LEADERSHIP
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Khoza, writing in Nedbank's latest annual
report . . . , said the country's “strange
breed” of leadership needed to adhere to the
institutions that underpinned democracy.
The political climate was not a picture of an
accountable democracy, he said.
“Our political leadership’s moral quotient is
degenerating and we are fast losing the
checks and balances that are necessary to
prevent a recurrence of the past.”
Khoza said South Africans had a duty to build
and develop the nation, but also to hold their
leaders accountable.
“We have a duty to build and develop this
nation and to call to book the putative
leaders who, due to sheer incapacity, cannot
deal with the complexity of 21st century
governance and leadership, cannot lead,”
said Khoza. (Busreo.co.za Newsletter, 6 April 2012)
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COURAGEOUS LEADERSHIP
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Business . . . challenged as wrong a suggestion
by the ANC that business must leave politics to
politicians.

“We disagree in the strongest possible terms
with the idea that business leaders should not
participate in our nation’s political discourse,”
said director for Business Leadership of South
Africa Friede Dowe in a statement.

“Businesses are corporate citizens. They and
the individuals who lead particular businesses
have not only a constitutional right of equal
importance but also a patriotic duty to join the
debate about a post transition South Africa.

“To suggest that politics should be left to
politicians is just wrong.” (Busrep.co.za, 6 April
2012)
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              “. . . the Board is there to understand
              the big picture, to understand the
              relationship of the business with the
              society, particularly with the
              environmental issues, particularly with
              the political issues, but to think in 30
              year terms, not to think in three-year
              terms.” (Bobby Godsell in Gleason:
              2011: 149)


              “I see myself as a person with vision in
              our industry about building things and
              innovating things and that is not a CEO
              function necessarily” (Adrian Gore in
              Gleason: 2011; 164)
www.strategicforum.co.za




              “A mission statement in a
              corporate sense is a
              definition of purpose: it
              circumscribes and defines
              what you do. In a personal
              sense a mission
              statement, as opposed to
              goals, is not what you want
              to have, it’s not even what
              you want to do, it’s who you
              want to be, and that takes
              some thinking.” (Mark
              Lamberti in Gleason: 2011:
              149)
COURAGEOUS LEADERSHIP
                         www.strategicforum.co.za


                                                           Building: The Engine for
                                                             Growth and Wealth
   Modeling                                                 Creation. Property a
  cooperative                                               preferred investment
   behaviour
 REINVENTION
                                                                       Skills Training
                                                                             and
                                  INDUSTRY                             Development


                   Government                      Labour
Leadership,                                                             Enterprise
 Lobbying,                                                             Development,
 Advocacy                                                                  BEE



          Management
                                                                Cross
          Training and
                                    Productive                functional
          Development
                                     capacity                Networking
                                    Alliances,
                                  Joint Ventures


              The Hot Spot Scenario: mapping emergence
                           (Based on Gratton: 2007: 145)
COURAGEOUS LEADERSHIP
                                       www.strategicforum.co.za

The more peers we can bring online for
the business of saving the world, the                                    Building: The Engine for
easier the effort will be, and in a                                        Growth and Wealth
                   Modeling
sense, the stronger we will each be.                                      Creation. Property a
                  cooperative                                             preferred investment
(Ramo: 2009: 240)behaviour
               REINVENTION
                                                                                       Skills Training
                                                                                             and
                                                INDUSTRY                               Development


                                 Government                    Labour
              Leadership,                                                               Enterprise
               Lobbying,                                                              Development,
               Advocacy                        Research has indicated that we can create jobs in six priority
                                                                                           BEE
                                               areas. These are infrastructure
                                               development, agriculture, mining and
                        Management             beneficiation, manufacturing, the green economy and
                                                                              Cross
                        Training and           tourism.
                                                  Productive                functional
                        Development            We cannot create these jobs alone. We have to work
                                                   capacity                Networking
                                               with business, labour and the community
                                                  Alliances,
                                                Joint Ventures
                                               constituencies. (Pres Jacob Zuma: SONA: 2011)
                            The Hot Spot Scenario: mapping emergence
                                         (Based on Gratton: 2007: 145)
DEVELOPING A NATIONAL VISION
                                www.npconline.co.za



Based on extensive research, engagement and consultation, the National Planning
   commission (NPC) has identified nine challenges that constitute obstacles in
   meeting our objectives.
The challenges are:
1. Too few South Africans are employed;
2. the quality of education for most black people remains poor;
3. Poorly located, inadequate and poorly maintained infrastructure;
4. Spatial challenges continue to marginalise the poor;
5. South Africa's growth path is highly resource-intensive and hence unsustainable;
6. The ailing public health system confronts a massive disease burden;
7. The performance of the public service is uneven;
8. Corruption undermines state legitimacy and service delivery;
9. South Africa remains a divided society.


                                                                             © BMI-BRSCU
DEVELOPING A NATIONAL VISION
                                          www.npconline.co.za




1.   A democratic state, rooted in the values of the Constitution, working with all sectors of
     society to improve the quality of life.
2. People are united in diversity, recognising the common interest that binds us as a nation, and we have
    achieved greater equality for women in all aspects of life.
3.   High-quality education and health care, and adequate provision of
     housing, water, sanitation, energy and transport, give impetus to human development.
4.   Natural wealth is harnessed sustainably, in a way that protects our environment, using science and
     modern technology to ensure a growing economy that benefits all.
5.   People who are able to work have access to jobs, workers’ rights are protected and the workforce is
     skilled.
6.   Business is afforded an environment to invest and profit while promoting the common interests of the
     nation, including decent work.

7.   An efficient state protects citizens, provides quality services and infrastructure, and gives
     leadership to national development.
8.   Individuals and communities, at work and at play, embrace mutual respect and human solidarity.
9.   Government, business and civil society work to build a better Africa and a better world.




                                                                                                   © BMI-BRSCU
DEVELOPING A NATIONAL VISION
                                          www.npconline.co.za




1.   A democratic state, rooted in the values of the Constitution, working with all sectors of
     society to improve the quality of life.
2. People are united in diversity, recognising the common interest that binds us as a nation, and we have
    achieved greater equality for women in all aspects of life.
3.   High-quality education and health care, and adequate provision of
     housing, water, sanitation, energy and transport, give impetus to human development.
4.   Natural wealth is harnessed sustainably, in a way that protects our environment, using science and
     modern technology to ensure a growing economy that benefits all.
5.   People who are able to work have access to jobs, workers’ rights are protected and the workforce is
     skilled.
6.   Business is afforded an environment to invest and profit while promoting the common interests of the
     nation, including decent work.

7.   An efficient state protects citizens, provides quality services and infrastructure, and gives
     leadership to national development.
8.   Individuals and communities, at work and at play, embrace mutual respect and human solidarity.
9.   Government, business and civil society work to build a better Africa and a better world.




                                                                                                   © BMI-BRSCU
DEVELOPING A NATIONAL VISION
                                          www.npconline.co.za




1.   A democratic state, rooted in the values of the Constitution, working with all sectors of
     society to improve the quality of life.
                             The Vision must be a dream and must be made much
2. People are united in diversity, recognising the common interest that binds us as a nation, and we have
                             more compelling than what the NPC is trying to do in
    achieved greater equality for women in all aspects of life.
3.   High-quality education and health care, plan (perhaps it is rather a mission?). Why
                             its 10 point and adequate provision of
     housing, water, sanitation, energy liketransport, givewe increase sustainable
                             not something and “together impetus to human development.
4.   Natural wealth is harnessed sustainably, in a way that life of people” ? (Prof Stef
                             welfare and quality of protects our environment, using science and
                             Coetzee, Sakebeeld, 22 June 2011)
     modern technology to ensure a growing economy that benefits all.
5.   People who are able to work have access to jobs, workers’ rights are protected and the workforce is
     skilled.
6.   Business is afforded an environment to invest and profit while promoting the common interests of the
     nation, including decent work.
                                This is a well considered document that deserves the
7.   An efficient state protectsattention of all thinking South and infrastructure, the gives
                                 citizens, provides quality services Africans. We need and
     leadership to national development.
                                political will to implement this and the plan which
8.   Individuals and communities, at work and in play, embrace mutual respect and human solidarity.
                                follows later at the year. (Prof Stef
9.                              Coetzee, Sakebeeld, 22 June 2011)
     Government, business and civil society work to build a better Africa and a better world.




                                                                                                   © BMI-BRSCU
DEVELOPING A NATIONAL VISION
                                           www.npconline.co.za



                                                  VISION

         A democratic state, rooted in the values of the Constitution, working with all
          sectors of society to improve the quality of life, build a better Africa and a better World.


                                                MISSSION


This is achieved through:
1.   High-quality education and health care, and adequate provision of
     housing, water, sanitation, energy and transport, give impetus to human development.
2.   Natural wealth is harnessed sustainably, in a way that protects our environment, using science and
     modern technology to ensure a growing economy that benefits all.
3.   People who are able to work have access to jobs,
4.   Business is afforded an environment to invest and profit while promoting the common interests of the
     nation, including decent work.

5.   An efficient state protects citizens, provides quality services and infrastructure, and gives
     leadership to national development.
6.   Government, business and civil society work to build a better Africa and a better world.


                                                                                                         © BMI-BRSCU
DEVELOPING A NATIONAL VISION
                                           www.npconline.co.za



                                                  VALUES

1.   People are united in diversity through Ubuntu;

2. An efficient state protects citizens;
3. Individuals and communities, at work and at play, embrace mutual respect and
   human solidarity;
4.   Equality for women in all aspects of life;

5.   Workers’ rights are protected, including access to decent work;
6.   The workforce is skilled;

7. Promoting the common interests of the nation through
     Openness, transparency, collaboration and accountabilty.


                                                  SLOGAN

                A democratic state, rooted in the values of the constitution


                                                                               © BMI-BRSCU
DEVELOPING A NATIONAL VISION
                               www.npconline.co.za




The NPC plays a role mobilising society around a vision and a development
   plan. It does this through active engagement with the public, ensuring
   that experts’ views are canvassed on its proposals, and through a wide
   range of interactions. The commission has to carry out its functions
   representing all South Africans, taking into account their views
   irrespective of political outlook.


The NPC invites all South Africans to participate in this process to define a
   shared vision for our collective future.
The Building Industry leadership needs to engage with the NPC in order to
   contribute to the development of the National Vision for the Country
   and for the Building Industry.




                                                                         © BMI-BRSCU
STRATEGIC RESPONSE OF THE BUILDING INDUSTRY
               www.strategicforum.co.za

                          Summarised MBSA Summit Decisions
                           To investigate the establishment of a multi-
                          representative Industry Forum that would meet 2 to 3
                          times per annum
                           To promote building as the Engine for Growth, nation
                          building and wealth creation (through home ownership) by
                          way of effective communication with leaders in all the
                          economic sectors
                           To establish a Task Force to unpack the R846 billion
                          infrastructure budgets and investment for all public sector
                          work, including affordable housing; to determine the
                          impediments to the delivery thereof; to ensure a constant
                          work flow and uphold quality standards, measured against
                          annually assessed programmes, and to explore and
                          prioritise the effective implementation of national
                          infrastructure maintenance strategies.
                           The formation of an inclusive forum to analyse the 8 000
                          projects within the Department of Human Settlements.
                           To maximise employment opportunities by correct retro-
                          fitting of existing buildings; maximise reduction of carbon
                          emissions, and pursue green best practice approaches for
                          engineering services in line with” green building”. (February
                          2011)


                                                                         © BMI-BRSCU
STRATEGIC RESPONSE OF THE BUILDING INDUSTRY
                                  www.strategicforum.co.za

                                             Summarised MBSA Summit Decisions


           ?                                  To investigate the establishment of a multi-
                                             representative Industry Forum that would meet 2 to 3
                                             times per annum
                                              To promote building as the Engine for Growth, nation
                                             building and wealth creation (through home ownership) by
                                             way of effective communication with leaders in all the
Towards developing a Co-                     economic sectors
operative mindset and cross                   To establish a Task Force to unpack the R846 billion
boundary networking for the                  infrastructure budgets and investment for all public sector
Industry?                                    work, including affordable housing; to determine the
                                             impediments to the delivery thereof; to ensure a constant
                                             work flow and uphold quality standards, measured against
                                             annually assessed programmes, and to explore and
First step towards developing a              prioritise the effective implementation of national
Vision for the Industry?                     infrastructure maintenance strategies.
                                              The formation of an inclusive forum to analyse the 8 000
                                             projects within the Department of Human Settlements.
Asking the right questions.
Turning known unknowns into                   To maximise employment opportunities by correct retro-
                                             fitting of existing buildings; maximise reduction of carbon
known knowns.                                emissions, and pursue green best practice approaches for
                                             engineering services in line with” green building”. (February
                                             2011)


                                                                                            © BMI-BRSCU
STRATEGIC RESPONSE
                                            www.strategicforum.co.za


                                                             NATIONAL ISSUES

                          INVESTMENT        GROWTH        EMPLOYMENT                 WEALTH             PROPERTY    ENVIRONMENT


Overarching vision aligned
with National Issues and                                     ORGANISATION’S ROLE                                     TOMORROW’S
                                                                                                                       ECONOMY
Vision, adapted and                              MARKETING              LOGISTICS          MANUFACTURING

customised by Industry and
                                                 VISION                           MISSION
organisations for their own                      The Building Industry is an      The elimination of social
                                                 engine for growth and            backlogs and inequities is
vision and values.                               wealth creation through          achieved through the              ENVIRONMENTAL
                                                 redistribution, property         provision of sustainable          SUSTAINABILITY
                              YESTERDAY’S        development, ownership           integrated developments,
                               ECONOMY           and investment.                  and providing skills,
                                                                                  employment and                    BROAD FOCUS ON
                                                                                  entrepreneurial                   CONTRIBUTION TO
                                                                                  opportunities for growth.         NATIONAL ISSUES

                              BORROW                                                                                   SOCIAL
                                BUY                                                                                 SUSTAINABILITY
                                                 VALUES
                               BURN              The Industry has an igniting vision, a culture, or mind set of
                                                 co-operation, collaboration and cross-boundary networking;            REINVENTION
                                                 and the productive capability to deliver SUSTAINABLE              Doing well while doing
                                                 Environmental, Social and Economic solutions and based on                 good.
                                                 the unashamedly           ethical values and code of
                                                 conduct of:
                          NARROW FOCUS           • Ubuntu                                                             ECONOMIC
                           ON COMPANY            • Integrity                                                        SUSTAINABILITY
                                                 • Respect
                                                 • Accountability
                                                 • Law abiding


                                                                           SLOGAN
                                                 Building: An engine of growth & wealth creation                            © BMI-BRSCU
THE STRATEGIC FORUM
                                            www.strategicforum.co.za

                 Studium Ad Prosperandum

                                                       ••   BUILDING RESEARCH
                                                            BUILDING RESEARCH
                                                  BMI
                                                   BMI      STRATEGY CONSULTING
                                                            STRATEGY CONSULTING
                                                            UNIT cc
                                                            UNIT cc




                                        
                 Voluntas in Conveniendum                   Reg. No. 2002/105109/23




                               THE STRATEGIC FORUM
                                  A place of assembly
                              for strategic conversations

                                                Towards
                Building: An Engine for growth and wealth creation in
  A democratic state, rooted in the values of the Constitution, working with all
sectors of society to improve the quality of life, build a better Africa and a better
                                       World.
                               Dr. Llewellyn B. Lewis
                                     April 2012                              © © BMI-BRSCU
                                                                               BMI-BRSCU

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The building industry and social transformation (april 2012)

  • 1. THE STRATEGIC FORUM www.strategicforum.co.za Studium Ad Prosperandum •• BUILDING RESEARCH BUILDING RESEARCH BMI BMI STRATEGY CONSULTING STRATEGY CONSULTING UNIT cc UNIT cc  Voluntas in Conveniendum Reg. No. 2002/105109/23 THE STRATEGIC FORUM A place of assembly for strategic conversations Towards Making sense of the Building-, Construction- and Property-Industry: THE ROLE OF POLITICS ON THE BUILDING INDUSTRY Dr. Llewellyn B. Lewis APRIL 2012 BMI-BRSCU © BMI-BRSCU
  • 2. www.strategicforum.co.za PROPERTY OWNERSHIP LISTED PROPERTY SECTOR ENGINE FOR GROWTH EMPLOYMENT MARKET CAPITALISATION AND WEALTH CREATION IN BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION > R100 BILLION R3,8 TRILLION RES PROPERTY > 1 000 000 PEOPLE R1,3 TRILLION NON RES PROPERTY PRIMARY AND SECONDARY PROPERTY MARKET ANNUAL HOUSING NEED URBAN HOUSING R267 BILLION PA MORTGAGE BACKLOG > 2,3 MILLION ADVANCES PA (POP. GROWTH ONLY) UNITS IN 2010 R1000 BIO MORTGAGES O/S 250 000 INTEGRATED HOUSING FTHB SUBSIDIES (1,9% OF BUDGET = R13,8 BILLION) RESIDENTIAL AND BUILDING INV. (500 000 HOUSING UNITS) NON RES BPP AND R108,5* BILLION INVESTMENT IN AFFORDABLE HOUSING BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC) (20,8% OF GFCF) (R1,4 TRILLION 2010-2020) GOVERNMENT BUDGET GFCF GDP R798,9 BILLION R521,6 BILLION R2663 BILLION (22% OF GDP) (30% OF GDP) GOVERNMENT CONSTR. INV. TRANSFER DUTY INFRASTRUCTURE SPEND R174,9 BILLION R8- R9 BILLION PA (R846 BILLION 2010-2020) (33,5% OF GDFI) * When the UNRECORDED Home Improvement and Affordable Housing is taken into account Building Investment = 30,5% of GFCF © © BMI-BRSCU BMI-BRSCU
  • 3. www.strategicforum.co.za PROPERTY OWNERSHIP LISTED PROPERTY SECTOR ENGINE FOR GROWTH EMPLOYMENT MARKET CAPITALISATION It is estimated that for every R1 CONSTRUCTION AND WEALTH CREATION IN BUILDING & spent on > R100 BILLION R3,8 TRILLION RES PROPERTY “Unless the Housing Market infrastructure, R1.40 is added to aPEOPLE R1,3 TRILLION NON RES PROPERTY > 1 000 000 country’s recovers, the Economy will not gross domestic product. PPP’s are the ideal PRIMARY AND SECONDARY PROPERTY recover.” (Warren Buffet, CNN, 4 October vehicle for funding the gaps in infrastructure MARKET ANNUAL HOUSING 2011) R267 BILLION PA MORTGAGE NEEDAfrica. (Deloittes research, May 2011) in URBAN HOUSING (POP. GROWTH ONLY) BACKLOG > 1,5 MILLION ADVANCES PA UNITS IN 2010 R1000 BIO MORTGAGES O/S 250 000 INTEGRATED HOUSING FTHB SUBSIDIES (1,9% OF BUDGET = R13,8 BILLION) RESIDENTIAL AND BUILDING INV. (500 000 HOUSING UNITS) NON RES BPP AND R108,5* BILLION INVESTMENT IN AFFORDABLE HOUSING BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC) (20,8% OF GFCF) (R1,4 TRILLION 2010-2020) GOVERNMENT BUDGET GFCF GDP R798,9 BILLION R521,6 BILLION The UK Government plan to promote R2663 BILLION (22% OF GDP) (30% OF GDP) building. “It clearly has recognised the need to boost house building, both to GOVERNMENT CONSTR. INV. addressTRANSFER DUTY crisis and to the housing INFRASTRUCTURE SPEND R174,9 BILLION R8- R9 BILLION PA create jobs.” (Business Day, 22 November 2011) (R846 BILLION 2010-2020) (33,5% OF GDFI) * When the UNRECORDED Home Improvement and Affordable Housing is taken into account Building Investment = 30,5% of GFCF © © BMI-BRSCU BMI-BRSCU
  • 4. MAKING SENSE OF THE FUTURE www.strategicforum.co.za The STRATEGIC FORUM Scenarios FOR THE BUILDING INDUSTRY: 2008-2020 HIGH ROAD COLUMBUS SCENARIO Property a PREFERRED Investment Home Ownership PREFERRED Trends in the Building Industry are inextricably BUOYANT GROWTH responsive to, and influenced by INVESTMENT CLIMATE, Backlogs eliminated by 2015 BOUYANT GROWTH INVESTOR CONFIDENCE and PROPERTY DELIVERY. > 5 % PA GDFI > 25 % UPPER MIDDLE ROAD Investor Confidence OF GDP APOLLO SCENARIO SUBSIDIES 3 - 5 % OF BUDGET Property a GOOD Investment Home Ownership DESIRED AVERAGE GROWTH AVERAGE GROWTH 2 - 5 % PA GDFI 20 - 25 % Erosion of Backlogs OF GDP SUBSIDIES LOWER MIDDLE ROAD 2 - 3 % OF BUDGET SOYUZ SCENARIO LOW GROWTH Property an AVERAGE Investment 0 - 2 % PA Home Ownership QUESTIONED GDFI 15 - 20 % OF GDP LOW GROWTH SUBSIDIES Keeping pace with Population 1 - 2 % OF BUDGET NEGATIVE GROWTH LOW ROAD < 0 % PA CHALLENGER SCENARIO GDFI < 15 % Property a POOR Investment OF GDP SUBSIDIES Home Ownership AVOIDED < 1 % OF BUDGET NEGATIVE GROWTH Investment Climate Increasing BACKLOGS PROPERTY A POOR INVESTMENT / AVERAGE / GOOD / A PREFERRED INVESTMENT BMI-BRSCU Paradigm Regression Paradigm Paralysis Paradigm Shift Paradigm Reinvention
  • 5. ANIMAL SPIRITS AND CONFIDENCE www.strategicforum.co.za The MFA Composite Leading Indicator for the South African Building Industry (CLIBI) recorded a peak of 69 in late 2004. The index dropped to 26 in 2009, reflecting a lower turning point. This building indicator then moved sideways during the next eighteen months. It rose to a level of 33 in the fourth quarter of 2011. The current reading for the first quarter of 2012 is 37. This finding suggests that the long-awaited revival in the South African building industry is presently underway. ?
  • 6. ANIMAL SPIRITS AND CONFIDENCE www.strategicforum.co.za George A. Akerlof is the Daniel E. Koshland Sr. Distinguished Professor of Economics at the University of California, Berkeley. He was awarded the 2001 Nobel Prize in Economics. Robert Shiller is the best-selling Author of Irrational Exuberance and The Subprime Solution (both Princeton). He is the Arthur M. Okun Professor of Economics at Yale University. BMI-BRSCU
  • 7. ANIMAL SPIRITS AND CONFIDENCE www.strategicforum.co.za How the Macro Economy behaves Rational Economic theory incorporating Conventional Economic Theory “Animal Spirits”. Akerlof & Shiller believe that the answers to the most important questions regarding how the macro economy behaves and what we ought to do when it misbehaves lie largely Economic theory incorporating Economic theory incorporating (though not exclusively) within the three white “Animal Spirits”. boxes)“Animal Spirits”. RESPONS Irrational Non Economic Economic MOTIVES © BMI-BRSCU
  • 8. ANIMAL SPIRITS AND CONFIDENCE www.strategicforum.co.za How the Macro Economy behaves • The current model fills only the top right hand box; it answers the question: How does the economy behave if people only have economic motives and if they respond to them rationally? • But that leads immediately to three more questions, corresponding to the three blank boxes: How does the economy behave with non- economic motives and rational responses? With economic motives and irrational responses? With non-economic motives and irrational responses? • Akerlof & Shiller believe that the answers to the most important questions regarding how the macro economy behaves and what we ought to do when it misbehaves lie largely (though not exclusively) within those three blank boxes) • Their description of the economy fits the qualitative as well as the quantitative facts, better than a macro-economics that leaves out irrational behaviour and non-economic motives. • Thus, they occasionally use statistics but for the most part, rely on history and on stories. (Akerlof & Shiller: 2009: 168)
  • 9. ANIMAL SPIRITS AND CONFIDENCE www.strategicforum.co.za We are facing the same problem today as in the later years of the Great Depression – business today is inhibited by uncertainty about Animal Spirits drive almost everything. the future, about the tolerance of an Animal Spirits are more than angry public, about a disaffected labour just confidence as force, and about what further government actions may be coming. measured by confidence indicators. Animal Spirits are the forces that drives all of this. Five psychological factors are of particular Declining Animal Spirits are the principal importance; reason for the recent severe economic crisis. 1. Confidence; 2. Fairness; (Akerlof and Shiller: 2009: vii) 3. Corruption and bad faith; 4. Money illusion; and 5. Stories. (Akerlof and Shiller: 2009: ix) © BMI-BRSCU
  • 10. ANIMAL SPIRITS AND CONFIDENCE www.strategicforum.co.za If this is what we mean by confidence, then we see immediately why, if it varies over time, it A confident prediction is one that projects should play a major role in the business cycle. the future to be rosy; an unconfident Why? prediction projects the future as bleak. In good times, people trust. They make decisions spontaneously. They know instinctively that But if we look up confidence in the they will be successful. They suspend their dictionary, we see that it is more than a suspicions. prediction. The dictionary says that it means Asset values will be high and perhaps also “trust” or “full belief”. increasing. As long as people remain trusting, their impulsiveness will not be The word comes from the Latin evident. “fido”, meaning “I trust”. But then, when the confidence disappears, the tide goes out. The nakedness of their decisions The confidence crisis that we are in at the stand revealed. moment is also called a “credit crisis”. The When people are confident, they go out and buy; word “credit” derives from the Latin when they are unconfident they “credo”, meaning “I believe”. (Akerlof and withdraw, and they sell. Shiller: 2009: 12) Economic history is full of such cycles of confidence followed by withdrawal (Akerlof and Shiller: 2009: 12,13) © BMI-BRSCU
  • 11. ANIMAL SPIRITS AND CONFIDENCE www.strategicforum.co.za The real problem is the conventional wisdom that underlies so much of current economic theory. The theory of animal spirits provides an So many members of the macro economics and answer to a conundrum: finance profession have gone so far in the direction of rational expectations and efficient markets, that they fail to consider the most 1. Why did most of us utterly fail to important dynamics underlying economic foresee the current economic crisis? crises. Failing to incorporate animal spirits into 2. How can we understand this the model, can blind us to the real sources of trouble. (Akerlof & Shiller : 2009 : 167) crisis, when it seems to have come out of the blue with no cause? What has happened in the current financial 3. Why have the measures to forestall crisis, corresponds to what causes most of our it falling short, while the economic authorities economic ups and downs: over-confidence followed by under-confidence. The story in publically express surprise at their this case was that the price of housing had ineffectiveness? never declined (that is only a story, and it is actually untrue) and therefore, that it would just continue to go up and up. There was We need to answer these questions if we are nothing to lose. This is the story of our time; it to feel any confidence in economic policy in is the story of the business cycle that began in the (future). (Akerlof and Shiller: 2009: 167) 2001. (Akerlof & Shiller, 2009 : 170) © BMI-BRSCU
  • 12. ANIMAL SPIRITS AND CONFIDENCE www.strategicforum.co.za For some reason in the late 1990s and early 2000s, the idea that homes and apartments were spectacular investments, gained a stronghold on the public imagination in the United States and many other countries as well. Not only did prices escalate, but there was palpable excitement about real estate investments; one could see the animal spirits in action everywhere. It was the biggest home price boom in U.S. history. It extended over nearly a decade, beginning in the late 1990s. Prices nearly doubled before the bust began in 2006. While it lasted, this spectacular boom mirrored in other countries as well, helped drive the entire world economy and its stock markets. In its wake, it has left the biggest real estate crisis since the 1930s. The so-called sub-prime crisis, as well as a global financial crisis, the full dimensions of which still have to be grasped. (Akerlof and Shiller: 2009: 149) © BMI-BRSCU
  • 13. COURAGEOUS LEADERSHIP www.strategicforum.co.za It is hoped that business leaders will also find their voices to speak out boldly. In this regard, the recent comments by Dr Johann Rupert to the Anton Rupert memorial lecture, was enlightening. “I’ve kept my word to Mamphela Ramphele, who said that whites should start speaking out a little bit without having the fear of being branded racists.” Quoting from his own experience he went on to say that even “Big Business with Government” meetings were orchestrated “powerpoint exchanges”. It was not frank dialogue. “And whenever any of us wanted to speak out our fellow businessmen made sure that we were kept quiet. So even the business leaders were very reluctant to criticise, preferring the lobbying route.” (Business Times, 26 October 2008). BMI-BRSCU
  • 14. COURAGEOUS LEADERSHIP www.strategicforum.co.za Ramphele said it was astounding that SA’s business sector had remained largely silent, even on failures that directly affected it. This included the system of 23 sectoral education and training authorities (Setas), funded by a levy of 1% of payroll for businesses with an annual turnover of more than R500 000, that was “clearly not working”. (Business Day, 3 December 2008) The Setas, the labour department’s near-destruction of SA’s working apprenticeship system and SA’s further education and training (FET) colleges were producing “unemployable” graduates. This was because there was not enough synergy between the college curricula and industry needs. “The private sector is too scared to upset (the government) ... but its silence is creating the seeds of social instability. Our people can’t read, write, or be usefully engaged,” she said. (Business Day, 3 December 2008) BMI-BRSCU
  • 15. COURAGEOUS LEADERSHIP www.strategicforum.co.za “We need more civil society mobilisation. We can’t let people lie to us about what they are going to do with our taxes, and keep on voting for them.” What SA required was strong leadership of the enabling kind, instead of the traditional authoritarian kind, Ramphele said. The country’s leadership needed to create a milieu in which South Africans could commit to tackling the country’s dilemmas collaboratively. (Business Day, 3 December 2008) (Other) conundrums included how to develop a professional, performance- based, civil service; how to create an inclusive society while redressing lingering historical imbalances; and how to deal with the “huge” unintended consequences of some of the government’s “very good” policies. These policies included black economic empowerment (BEE), and the mass dismissal of white professionals from the civil service, particularly the country’s engineers. (Business Day, 3 December 2008) BMI-BRSCU
  • 16. COURAGEOUS LEADERSHIP www.strategicforum.co.za Khoza, writing in Nedbank's latest annual report . . . , said the country's “strange breed” of leadership needed to adhere to the institutions that underpinned democracy. The political climate was not a picture of an accountable democracy, he said. “Our political leadership’s moral quotient is degenerating and we are fast losing the checks and balances that are necessary to prevent a recurrence of the past.” Khoza said South Africans had a duty to build and develop the nation, but also to hold their leaders accountable. “We have a duty to build and develop this nation and to call to book the putative leaders who, due to sheer incapacity, cannot deal with the complexity of 21st century governance and leadership, cannot lead,” said Khoza. (Busreo.co.za Newsletter, 6 April 2012) BMI-BRSCU
  • 17. COURAGEOUS LEADERSHIP www.strategicforum.co.za Business . . . challenged as wrong a suggestion by the ANC that business must leave politics to politicians. “We disagree in the strongest possible terms with the idea that business leaders should not participate in our nation’s political discourse,” said director for Business Leadership of South Africa Friede Dowe in a statement. “Businesses are corporate citizens. They and the individuals who lead particular businesses have not only a constitutional right of equal importance but also a patriotic duty to join the debate about a post transition South Africa. “To suggest that politics should be left to politicians is just wrong.” (Busrep.co.za, 6 April 2012) BMI-BRSCU
  • 18. www.strategicforum.co.za “. . . the Board is there to understand the big picture, to understand the relationship of the business with the society, particularly with the environmental issues, particularly with the political issues, but to think in 30 year terms, not to think in three-year terms.” (Bobby Godsell in Gleason: 2011: 149) “I see myself as a person with vision in our industry about building things and innovating things and that is not a CEO function necessarily” (Adrian Gore in Gleason: 2011; 164)
  • 19. www.strategicforum.co.za “A mission statement in a corporate sense is a definition of purpose: it circumscribes and defines what you do. In a personal sense a mission statement, as opposed to goals, is not what you want to have, it’s not even what you want to do, it’s who you want to be, and that takes some thinking.” (Mark Lamberti in Gleason: 2011: 149)
  • 20. COURAGEOUS LEADERSHIP www.strategicforum.co.za Building: The Engine for Growth and Wealth Modeling Creation. Property a cooperative preferred investment behaviour REINVENTION Skills Training and INDUSTRY Development Government Labour Leadership, Enterprise Lobbying, Development, Advocacy BEE Management Cross Training and Productive functional Development capacity Networking Alliances, Joint Ventures The Hot Spot Scenario: mapping emergence (Based on Gratton: 2007: 145)
  • 21. COURAGEOUS LEADERSHIP www.strategicforum.co.za The more peers we can bring online for the business of saving the world, the Building: The Engine for easier the effort will be, and in a Growth and Wealth Modeling sense, the stronger we will each be. Creation. Property a cooperative preferred investment (Ramo: 2009: 240)behaviour REINVENTION Skills Training and INDUSTRY Development Government Labour Leadership, Enterprise Lobbying, Development, Advocacy Research has indicated that we can create jobs in six priority BEE areas. These are infrastructure development, agriculture, mining and Management beneficiation, manufacturing, the green economy and Cross Training and tourism. Productive functional Development We cannot create these jobs alone. We have to work capacity Networking with business, labour and the community Alliances, Joint Ventures constituencies. (Pres Jacob Zuma: SONA: 2011) The Hot Spot Scenario: mapping emergence (Based on Gratton: 2007: 145)
  • 22. DEVELOPING A NATIONAL VISION www.npconline.co.za Based on extensive research, engagement and consultation, the National Planning commission (NPC) has identified nine challenges that constitute obstacles in meeting our objectives. The challenges are: 1. Too few South Africans are employed; 2. the quality of education for most black people remains poor; 3. Poorly located, inadequate and poorly maintained infrastructure; 4. Spatial challenges continue to marginalise the poor; 5. South Africa's growth path is highly resource-intensive and hence unsustainable; 6. The ailing public health system confronts a massive disease burden; 7. The performance of the public service is uneven; 8. Corruption undermines state legitimacy and service delivery; 9. South Africa remains a divided society. © BMI-BRSCU
  • 23. DEVELOPING A NATIONAL VISION www.npconline.co.za 1. A democratic state, rooted in the values of the Constitution, working with all sectors of society to improve the quality of life. 2. People are united in diversity, recognising the common interest that binds us as a nation, and we have achieved greater equality for women in all aspects of life. 3. High-quality education and health care, and adequate provision of housing, water, sanitation, energy and transport, give impetus to human development. 4. Natural wealth is harnessed sustainably, in a way that protects our environment, using science and modern technology to ensure a growing economy that benefits all. 5. People who are able to work have access to jobs, workers’ rights are protected and the workforce is skilled. 6. Business is afforded an environment to invest and profit while promoting the common interests of the nation, including decent work. 7. An efficient state protects citizens, provides quality services and infrastructure, and gives leadership to national development. 8. Individuals and communities, at work and at play, embrace mutual respect and human solidarity. 9. Government, business and civil society work to build a better Africa and a better world. © BMI-BRSCU
  • 24. DEVELOPING A NATIONAL VISION www.npconline.co.za 1. A democratic state, rooted in the values of the Constitution, working with all sectors of society to improve the quality of life. 2. People are united in diversity, recognising the common interest that binds us as a nation, and we have achieved greater equality for women in all aspects of life. 3. High-quality education and health care, and adequate provision of housing, water, sanitation, energy and transport, give impetus to human development. 4. Natural wealth is harnessed sustainably, in a way that protects our environment, using science and modern technology to ensure a growing economy that benefits all. 5. People who are able to work have access to jobs, workers’ rights are protected and the workforce is skilled. 6. Business is afforded an environment to invest and profit while promoting the common interests of the nation, including decent work. 7. An efficient state protects citizens, provides quality services and infrastructure, and gives leadership to national development. 8. Individuals and communities, at work and at play, embrace mutual respect and human solidarity. 9. Government, business and civil society work to build a better Africa and a better world. © BMI-BRSCU
  • 25. DEVELOPING A NATIONAL VISION www.npconline.co.za 1. A democratic state, rooted in the values of the Constitution, working with all sectors of society to improve the quality of life. The Vision must be a dream and must be made much 2. People are united in diversity, recognising the common interest that binds us as a nation, and we have more compelling than what the NPC is trying to do in achieved greater equality for women in all aspects of life. 3. High-quality education and health care, plan (perhaps it is rather a mission?). Why its 10 point and adequate provision of housing, water, sanitation, energy liketransport, givewe increase sustainable not something and “together impetus to human development. 4. Natural wealth is harnessed sustainably, in a way that life of people” ? (Prof Stef welfare and quality of protects our environment, using science and Coetzee, Sakebeeld, 22 June 2011) modern technology to ensure a growing economy that benefits all. 5. People who are able to work have access to jobs, workers’ rights are protected and the workforce is skilled. 6. Business is afforded an environment to invest and profit while promoting the common interests of the nation, including decent work. This is a well considered document that deserves the 7. An efficient state protectsattention of all thinking South and infrastructure, the gives citizens, provides quality services Africans. We need and leadership to national development. political will to implement this and the plan which 8. Individuals and communities, at work and in play, embrace mutual respect and human solidarity. follows later at the year. (Prof Stef 9. Coetzee, Sakebeeld, 22 June 2011) Government, business and civil society work to build a better Africa and a better world. © BMI-BRSCU
  • 26. DEVELOPING A NATIONAL VISION www.npconline.co.za VISION A democratic state, rooted in the values of the Constitution, working with all sectors of society to improve the quality of life, build a better Africa and a better World. MISSSION This is achieved through: 1. High-quality education and health care, and adequate provision of housing, water, sanitation, energy and transport, give impetus to human development. 2. Natural wealth is harnessed sustainably, in a way that protects our environment, using science and modern technology to ensure a growing economy that benefits all. 3. People who are able to work have access to jobs, 4. Business is afforded an environment to invest and profit while promoting the common interests of the nation, including decent work. 5. An efficient state protects citizens, provides quality services and infrastructure, and gives leadership to national development. 6. Government, business and civil society work to build a better Africa and a better world. © BMI-BRSCU
  • 27. DEVELOPING A NATIONAL VISION www.npconline.co.za VALUES 1. People are united in diversity through Ubuntu; 2. An efficient state protects citizens; 3. Individuals and communities, at work and at play, embrace mutual respect and human solidarity; 4. Equality for women in all aspects of life; 5. Workers’ rights are protected, including access to decent work; 6. The workforce is skilled; 7. Promoting the common interests of the nation through Openness, transparency, collaboration and accountabilty. SLOGAN A democratic state, rooted in the values of the constitution © BMI-BRSCU
  • 28. DEVELOPING A NATIONAL VISION www.npconline.co.za The NPC plays a role mobilising society around a vision and a development plan. It does this through active engagement with the public, ensuring that experts’ views are canvassed on its proposals, and through a wide range of interactions. The commission has to carry out its functions representing all South Africans, taking into account their views irrespective of political outlook. The NPC invites all South Africans to participate in this process to define a shared vision for our collective future. The Building Industry leadership needs to engage with the NPC in order to contribute to the development of the National Vision for the Country and for the Building Industry. © BMI-BRSCU
  • 29. STRATEGIC RESPONSE OF THE BUILDING INDUSTRY www.strategicforum.co.za Summarised MBSA Summit Decisions  To investigate the establishment of a multi- representative Industry Forum that would meet 2 to 3 times per annum  To promote building as the Engine for Growth, nation building and wealth creation (through home ownership) by way of effective communication with leaders in all the economic sectors  To establish a Task Force to unpack the R846 billion infrastructure budgets and investment for all public sector work, including affordable housing; to determine the impediments to the delivery thereof; to ensure a constant work flow and uphold quality standards, measured against annually assessed programmes, and to explore and prioritise the effective implementation of national infrastructure maintenance strategies.  The formation of an inclusive forum to analyse the 8 000 projects within the Department of Human Settlements.  To maximise employment opportunities by correct retro- fitting of existing buildings; maximise reduction of carbon emissions, and pursue green best practice approaches for engineering services in line with” green building”. (February 2011) © BMI-BRSCU
  • 30. STRATEGIC RESPONSE OF THE BUILDING INDUSTRY www.strategicforum.co.za Summarised MBSA Summit Decisions ?  To investigate the establishment of a multi- representative Industry Forum that would meet 2 to 3 times per annum  To promote building as the Engine for Growth, nation building and wealth creation (through home ownership) by way of effective communication with leaders in all the Towards developing a Co- economic sectors operative mindset and cross  To establish a Task Force to unpack the R846 billion boundary networking for the infrastructure budgets and investment for all public sector Industry? work, including affordable housing; to determine the impediments to the delivery thereof; to ensure a constant work flow and uphold quality standards, measured against annually assessed programmes, and to explore and First step towards developing a prioritise the effective implementation of national Vision for the Industry? infrastructure maintenance strategies.  The formation of an inclusive forum to analyse the 8 000 projects within the Department of Human Settlements. Asking the right questions. Turning known unknowns into  To maximise employment opportunities by correct retro- fitting of existing buildings; maximise reduction of carbon known knowns. emissions, and pursue green best practice approaches for engineering services in line with” green building”. (February 2011) © BMI-BRSCU
  • 31. STRATEGIC RESPONSE www.strategicforum.co.za NATIONAL ISSUES INVESTMENT GROWTH EMPLOYMENT WEALTH PROPERTY ENVIRONMENT Overarching vision aligned with National Issues and ORGANISATION’S ROLE TOMORROW’S ECONOMY Vision, adapted and MARKETING LOGISTICS MANUFACTURING customised by Industry and VISION MISSION organisations for their own The Building Industry is an The elimination of social engine for growth and backlogs and inequities is vision and values. wealth creation through achieved through the ENVIRONMENTAL redistribution, property provision of sustainable SUSTAINABILITY YESTERDAY’S development, ownership integrated developments, ECONOMY and investment. and providing skills, employment and BROAD FOCUS ON entrepreneurial CONTRIBUTION TO opportunities for growth. NATIONAL ISSUES BORROW SOCIAL BUY SUSTAINABILITY VALUES BURN The Industry has an igniting vision, a culture, or mind set of co-operation, collaboration and cross-boundary networking; REINVENTION and the productive capability to deliver SUSTAINABLE Doing well while doing Environmental, Social and Economic solutions and based on good. the unashamedly ethical values and code of conduct of: NARROW FOCUS • Ubuntu ECONOMIC ON COMPANY • Integrity SUSTAINABILITY • Respect • Accountability • Law abiding SLOGAN Building: An engine of growth & wealth creation © BMI-BRSCU
  • 32. THE STRATEGIC FORUM www.strategicforum.co.za Studium Ad Prosperandum •• BUILDING RESEARCH BUILDING RESEARCH BMI BMI STRATEGY CONSULTING STRATEGY CONSULTING UNIT cc UNIT cc  Voluntas in Conveniendum Reg. No. 2002/105109/23 THE STRATEGIC FORUM A place of assembly for strategic conversations Towards Building: An Engine for growth and wealth creation in A democratic state, rooted in the values of the Constitution, working with all sectors of society to improve the quality of life, build a better Africa and a better World. Dr. Llewellyn B. Lewis April 2012 © © BMI-BRSCU BMI-BRSCU