Global solar radiation forecasting with non lineal statistical techniques and qualitative predictions from spanish national weather service
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Global solar radiation forecasting with non lineal statistical techniques and qualitative predictions from spanish national weather service
- 1. Global solar radiation forecasting with non-lineal statistical techniques and qualitative predictions from Spanish National Weather Service L. Martín, J. Polo, L.F.Zarzalejo, A. Navarro Energy department CIEMAT R. Marchante Investigaciones y Recursos Solares Avanzados IRSOLAV (www.irsolav.com)
- 2. EUROSUN2008, October 7-10, Lisbon (Portugal) TIME SERIES GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION HALF DAILY PROPERTIES Global solar irradiance half daily time series : Non Stationary Non Gaussian Data Data Preprocessing Non Linear Removing stationarity from time series: Using clearness index. Using lost component variable. Subtracting each value mean value of 2d+1 days. Removing from time series anual armonic (first armonic from fourier analysis). 2
- 3. EUROSUN2008, October 7-10, Lisbon (Portugal) LOST COMPONENT PREDICTIONS 6000 5000 4000 Wm-2 3000 2000 1000 0 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Half Day 3 Differencing day by day
- 4. EUROSUN2008, October 7-10, Lisbon (Portugal) LOST COMPONENT PREDICTIONS 3000 2000 Diff Lost Component Wm-2 1000 0 -3 -1000 1.5 x 10 1 -2000 N u m b e r o f S am p les 0.5 -3000 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Half Day 0 -4 000 -3000 4 -20 00 -1 000 0 10 00 D iff L ost C om ponent 2000 300 0 4 000
- 5. LOST COMPONENT PREDICTIONS MADRID RRN AEMet 0.3 0.28 40 0.26 38 0.24 N N /PE R 36 0.22 Im p ro v e m e n t % R M S E 34 0.2 %RMSD 32 0.18 30 0.16 0.14 28 0.12 26 0.1 24 0.08 22 0.06 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 Prediction Horizon Half Daily Pre dic tion Horizon 5
- 6. EUROSUN2008, October 7-10, Lisbon (Portugal) AEMet Synoptic Predictions by Site Total Cloud Cover ECMWF HIRLAM/AEMet PROMETEO WRF/MM5…. Energy Values 6
- 7. EUROSUN2008, October 7-10, Lisbon (Portugal) LOST COMPONENT + QUALITATIVE PREDICTIONS MADRID RRN AEMet 0 .7 40 0 .6 8 N N (1 0 )/P E R 35 Im p ro v e m e n t % R M S D 30 0 .6 6 25 %RMSD 0 .6 4 20 15 0 .6 2 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 .6 Prediction Horizon Half Daily 1 2 3 4 5 6 H o rizo n P re d7 tio n (H a lf D a ily) ic
- 8. EUROSUN2008, October 7-10, Lisbon (Portugal) LOST COMPONENT + QUALITATIVE PREDICTIONS MADRID RRN AEMet 40 40 35 35 30 30 %RMSD 25 25 20 %RMSD 20 15 15 10 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 Prediction Horizon Half Daily Prediction Horizon Half Daily 8
Notes de l'éditeur
- Buenas días, mi nombre es Luis Martín y voy a presentar el trabajo realizado hasta la fecha en el ámbito de la predicción de la radiación solar diaria.
- The result is a time series nonstationary with a probability density function similar to a delta function. This signal is the random part of solar irradiance and is isolated from the deterministic part of solar irradiance