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CSP OCTOBER 2010
The Palmer Forecast TM
1
If you sometimes feel like this, you are not alone…
2
Recessions and Jobs
3
Temp Help Vs. Recession
4
Temp Help Vs. Non Farm Jobs
5
Accuracy of the Palmer forecast
6
1500
1700
1900
2100
2300
2500
2700
Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010
Temporary Employees in Thousands
Forecast
Actual
Recent Non Farm Trends
7
Robert W. Baird & Co.
All the growth – Health Care /ED/Govt
8
Robert W. Baird & Co.
Temp Vs. Perm Jobs
9
Robert W. Baird & Co.
10
The Future
?
11
?
What will happen in the future?
12
Jobs are
Created at
2% GDP Growth
4%
3%
2%
1%
*
* *
*
* *
*
*
4Q08
-6%
Need 2% GDP Growth to create temp jobs !
The Growth Zone
20%
10%
0% *
*
* *
*
*
*
*
4Q08
-30%
GP Temp Growth Forecast 2011
Uneven
Growth
Now What?
15
Segment Growth Projections
16
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
Home Health Care Services
Computer Systems
Colleges, Universities and Professional Schools
Limited-Service Eating Places
Offices of Physician
Local Government
Elementary and Secondary Schools
General Medical
Employment Service
Management, Scientific, Technical Consulting
BLS
Margins
17
Gross Margins Trend
Company 2006 2007 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 2Q10
Adecco SA 17.30% 18.90% 18.10% 19.30% 18.00% 18.20% 18.50% 17.80% 17.80%
Manpower Inc. 17.90% 18.80% 18.00% 19.50% 18.10% 20.80% 18.30% 18.30% 17.40%
Randstad
Holding (1) 19.90% 20.80% 20.50% 20.90% 20.90% 20.70% 20.10% 19.70% 19.0%
Kelly Services
Inc. 16.30% 17.50% 18.00% 17.70% 17.60% 17.60% 16.80% 16.70% 15.80%
Robert Half 42.20% 42.60% 41.70% 42.20% 41.70% 40.70% 35.70% 35.30% 37.70%
Spherion 23.30% 23.70% 22.20% 23.10% 21.90% 20.70% 19.50% 20.30% 20.5%
MPS Group 27.60% 28.70% 28.60% 29.00% 28.40% 28.60% 26.90% 27.20% N/A
True Blue 32.10% 31.90% 30.40% 29.80% 29.70% 29.30% 27.90% 29.50% 26.60%
AMN
Healthcare
Services 26.70% 26.00% 26.40% 26.40% 25.70% 25.70% 25.60% 27.00% 27.60%
Kforce 34.70% 35.90% 34.10% 35.80% 34.50% 33.50% 31.20% 34.40% 31.90%
Average 25.80% 26.50% 25.80% 26.40% 25.70% 25.60% 24.10% 24.60% 23.8%
Source: Staffing Industry Analysts, Inc. and company reports and GPalmer
(1)Randstad completed the acquisition of Vedior in May 2008. Randstad's gross profit margin is on a
pro forma basis.
Don’t Forget the Workforce !
18
Unemployment by Education
19
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2007 2008 2009
Umemployment Rate Less than High School College Graduates
17.1%
9.6%
4.5%
Workforce by Age
20
Growth in over 45 yrs
Decline in younger workers
A Sprint or Marathon?
21
Gears of Opportunity
Clients/Competition
/Change
Aging
workforce
Shifts in
the
Economy
Quick Tips
23
 Raise prices in Jan 2010 – SUI and WC will increase
 Stay close to Health Care Reform / ASA/CSP
 If you are thinking about selling consider an ESOP
 Consider Off Shore Recruiting solutions, i.e. PSG
www.psgglobalsolutions.com Brian
Cotter(310) 566-7436
24
25
Thank You!
www.GPalmerandAssociates.com
949 232 7101

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