1. Out of Gas
The end of the age of oil
David Goodstein
Air Resources Board, November 30 , 2006

2. Energy Myths
– $3.00 a gallon is too much to pay
– Oil companies produce oil.
– We must conserve energy.
– When we run out of oil, the marketplace
will take over
– There’s enough fossil fuel in the ground to
last for hundreds of years.
– Nuclear energy is dangerous.
– The greenhouse effect and global warming
are bad.

3. A Brief History of Energy
Caloric
Count Rumford (Sir Benjamin Thompson),
1753-1814
Many others Work converted to heat
Credit
James Prescott Joule, 1818-1889 4 Lbs.
The falling weight turns
the paddle wheel in the
tank of water. As the wheel
turns, the temperature of
the water increases. Water filled tank

4. Forms of Energy
Kinetic
Organized
Random (Temperature)
Potential
Gravitational
Chemical
Nuclear
etc.

5. Thermal Radiation

6. 30% reflected
70% absorbed

7. 30% reflected
Earthrise on the Moon
70% absorbed

8. 30% reflected
70% absorbed
T = 255 K = -18 oC = 0 oF

9. Earth’s Climate
• The tilted axis

10. Earth’s Climate
• The tilted axis
• The El Niño Cycle

11. Earth’s Climate
• The tilted axis
• The El Niño Cycle
• The Thermohaline
Flow

12. Earth’s Climate
• The tilted axis
• The El Niño Cycle
• The Thermohaline
Flow
• The Greenhouse
Effect

13. The Greenhouse Effect
(Preindustrial)
From the Sun: 343 W/m2
Water vapor, methane,
Carbon dioxide, etc.
88% Greenhouse
T = 287K= 14oC = 57oF
Feedback effects
Limiting cases

15. Sources of Useful Energy
Before 1800:
Light from the
Sun
Coal
Oil seeps
Swamp gas

16. Nineteenth Century
Coal
Whale Oil
E. L. Drake, 1859, Titusville, PA.
Illumination, Lubrication
Fuel
We can no longer live on light from the Sun

18. M. King Hubbert

19. Hubbert’s analysis
Q = All the oil that’s been discovered
Q0 = All the oil that ever existed
At first, discovery grows exponentially
dQ/dt = aQ

20. But exponential growth slows down when
Q is no longer small compared to Q0:
dQ/dt = aQ(Q0 – Q)
The Logistic Equation

21. dQ/dt versus Q

22. dQ/dt versus t

23. [ a ( t0 −t )]
dQ ae
= Q0 [ a ( t0 −t )] 2
dt [1 + e ]

24. The Logistic Curve
dQ
dt
t

25. Extrapolating the declining rate of
increase
1 dQ
= a (Q0 − Q)
1 dQ Q dt
Q dt
Q0
Q
Q0 for the U.S. was 150 billion barrels

26. Fitting the data—Hubbert’s Peak
Hubbert Curves
US Onshore Oil Production
10
9
8
7
Mb/d
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025

27. Reserves and Discovery
Oil Reserve Data
Proved Oil Reserves Annual Oil Discoveries
60
1200
Production
1000 50
OPEC
800 40
bn bbls
600
bn bbls
OPEC
30
400
20
200
Non-OPEC 10
0
Non-OPEC
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2003

28. Model Calculation
Colin J. Campbell and Jean H. Laherrère Sci. Amer., 1998

29. Caution
• Used 1.8 trillion
• Technology = Discovery
• Increasing price makes more
available
• “Reserve” numbers very soft
• Basic idea is right

30. Kenneth Deffeyes:
The Texas Railroad Commission announced a
100% allowable for next month
The San Francisco Chronicle, 1971

31. The New York Times, February 24, 2004
Forecast of Rising Oil Demand Challenges Tired Saudi Fields
By JEFF GERTH
…the country's oil fields now are in decline, prompting
industry and government officials to raise serious
questions about whether the kingdom will be able to satisfy
the world's thirst for oil in coming years.
…
Some economists are …optimistic that if oil prices rise high
enough, advanced recovery techniques will be applied,
averting supply problems.
But privately, some Saudi oil officials are less sanguine.

32. Oil Users
• Petrochemicals
• Stationary power
plants
• Home heating
• Transportation
Cars
Trucks
Planes
Ships
Trains

33. Global Energy Consumption,
1998
5 4.52
4
2.96
3 2.7
TW
2
1.21
1 0.828
0.286 0.286
0
Oil Gas Coal Hydro Biomass Renew Nuclear
Total: 12.8 TW U.S.: 3.3 TW (99 Quads)

34. Fossil Fuels
Oil
Natural gas
Shale oil
Methane hydrate
Coal

35. Coal
• Hundreds, maybe thousands years at present rate
• Largest deposits in US
• Can be liquified substitute oil
But
• Dirty (mercury, arsenic, sulfur)
• Greenhouse effect
• Increase rate x5 replace oil
• Increasing population
• Higher standard of living
• Hubbert’s peak.—This century

36. What does the future hold?
• Oil crisis very soon
• Fossil fuel will run out
• Unknown consequences for climate
• Solar flux plus nuclear
• Dilemma
– Social, political
– Technical

37. Technological Fixes
Greenhouse Effect

38. Technological Fixes
Greenhouse Effect
• Parasol at L1

39. Technological Fixes
Greenhouse Effect
• Parasol at L1
• Sequester CO2

40. Solar

41. Solar
• Hydro

42. Solar
• Hydro
• Wind

43. Solar
• Hydro
• Wind
• Biomass

44. Solar
• Hydro
• Wind
• Biomass
• PV
(10 TW = 220,000 km2)

45. Solar
• Hydro
• Wind
• Biomass
• PV
(10 TW = 220,000 km2)
Total Solar Flux =
20,000 x 10 TW

46. Conservation
(Amory Lovins, Rocky Mountain Institute)
• Ultra light/strong materials
• Hybrids
• Efficient buildings, factories
• Fuel from switchgrass, poplar, sugar cane
• More efficient use electricity
• Feebates
• Etc.

47. Nuclear

48. Nuclear
• Geothermal

49. Nuclear
• Geothermal
• Fission

50. Nuclear
• Geothermal
• Fission
(10 TW = 10,000 GW
plants)

51. Nuclear
• Geothermal
• Fission
(10 TW = 10,000 GW
plants)
• Fusion

52. Nuclear
• Geothermal
• Fission
(10 TW = 10,000 GW
plants)
• Fusion
(1 gallon sea water =
300 gallons gasoline)

53. Transportation

54. Transportation
• Advanced batteries
• Hydrogen

55. Transportation
• Advanced batteries
• Hydrogen
• Other fuels

56. Transportation
• Advanced batteries
• Hydrogen
• Other fuels
We understand the
basic principles

58. Prediction
Civilization as we know it will come to an
end sometime in this century, when the
fuel runs out.

59. Stanford University
Global Climate & Energy Project
Toyota, ExxonMobil, GE, and Schlumberger
Lynn Orr

60. POWERING THE PLANET
Caltech’s Center for Sustainable Energy Research (CSER)
Harry Atwater, Harry Gray, Sossina Haile,
Nathan Lewis, Jonas Peters
Steven Koonin at BP
Powering the Planet

61. Out of Gas
The end of the age of oil
David Goodstein