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Chapter 18. The Common Stock
Market

• Types of markets
• Trading mechanics
• Stock market indexes
• Pricing efficiency
Common stock

• equity security
  • ownership
  • entitled to distributed earnings
  • entitled to share of assets
I. Type of Markets

•   exchanges
•   OTC trading of
     • unlisted stocks & listed stocks
•   direct trading
Exchanges

• physical location for trading
• trading by members
    • own a seat on the exchange
•   stock traded on exchange are listed
    stocks
NYSE
• the “Big Board”
• about 2800 listed U.S. companies
    • & 450 non-U.S. companies
•   $18 trillion market value (2/04)
•   1366 seats (fixed)
    • seat price $2 million 2002
    • 10/2003 $1.35 million
• stocks trade at post on the trading
    floor
     • 20 posts, trading about 100 stocks
•   each stock has one specialist
     • 10 specialist firms, 470 specialists
     • each specialist has 5-10 stocks
     • process trades from floor brokers
       (5%) and electronically (95%)
role of the specialist
•   MUST maintain a fair and orderly market
    for stock
•   act as buyer or seller as needed (10% of
    trades)
•   match buyers and sellers
•   maintain order priority
the future of the specialist

• may be phased on with next 5-10
    years
•   recent SEC fines for improper
    trading for several major firms
AMEX

• merged w/ Nasdaq 1998
• specializes in equity derivative
 securities and closed-end funds
Regional exchanges

• stocks may be listed on both NYSE
    and regional exchange
•   5 regional exchanges
•   cheaper seat prices
OTC markets

• electronic network of dealers all over
    the world
•   ECNs
     • electronic communication
       networks
•   more than one dealer per stock
     • not obligated to make a market
Nasdaq

• not the only OTC system, but the
    largest
•   over 4000 companies listed
     • mkt. value $2 trillion (2/28/03)
•   leader in daily share volume
•   over 500 dealers
•   listing requirements
II. Trading Mechanics

• types of orders
• short selling
• buying on the margin
• institutional trading
Types of orders
• instructions from investors to
    brokers
•   market order
    • buy/sell order to be executed at
      best price
      -- get lowest price for buy order
      -- get highest price for sell order
• market order (cont.)
  • market orders given priority in
    trading
  • no guarantee of execution price
    -- price could rise/fall from time
    order is placed to time it is
    executed
• limit order
  • buy/sell order where investor
    specifies price range
  • “buy at $50 or less”
  • “sell at $52 or more”
  • specialist records orders in
     limit order book
• investor sets reservation price
BUT
• no guarantee that limit order will
  be executed
• stop order
  • order lies dormant
  • turns into market order when
    certain price (“the stop”) is
    reached
  • “buy if price rises to $60”
  • “sell if price falls to $58”
    -- stop loss order
• investor does not have to watch
 market
 • but in a volatile market stop could
   be triggered prematurely
   -- end up trading unnecessarily
• stop limit order
  • turns into limit order when stop is
    reached
  • “buy if price rises to $60, but only
    is executed at $65 or less”
• market if touched order
  • turns into market order if certain
    price is reached
  • “buy if price falls to $55”
  • “sell if price rises to $62”
how long is an order good?

• fill or kill order
    • executed when reaches trading
      floor, or canceled
•   good until canceled/open order
    • is good indefinitely
order size
• round lots
    • lots of 100 shares
•   odd lots
    • less than 100 shares
    • more difficult to trade
•   block trades
    • 10,000 shares or $200,000 value
short selling
• sale of borrowed stock
• profit from belief that stock price is
    too high will fall soon
•   how?
     • borrow stock through broker
     • sell stock
     • buy and return later
• short selling could further
    destabilize falling prices
    • tick test rules on exchange
•   short sales allowed if
    • uptick or zero uptick in price for
      previous trades:
    • $20.75, $21 (uptick)
    • $20.75, $20.75 (zero upick)
    • $20.75, $20 (downtick)
• so short sellers
  • believe price will fall and SOON
  • but price not currently falling
  • face unlimited losses if price rises
Buying on the margin

• buyer borrows part of purchase price
    of stock, using stock as collateral
    • borrow at call money rate
•   Fed sets initial margin requirement
    • minimum cash payment
    • 50% since 1975
• if stock price falls
  • collateral worth less
  • if collateral worth only 125% of
    loan (maintenance margin)
    -- margin call
    -- owner must put up more cash or
    sell stock
  • margin calls can worsen stock
    crash
example
• 1000 shares, $20 per share
     • $20,000 cost
     • $10,000 cash, borrow $10,000
•   leverage
     • gains/losses on $20,000 capital
     • but tied up only $10,000 capital
• if prices falls to $12,
  • value of stock $12,000
  • below 125% of $10,000 loan
  • get a margin call
Institutional trading

• vs. retail trades
  • institutional trades are larger
  • special execution
  • over 50% of NYSE share volume
block trades

• large # shares in one stock
• executed in “upstairs” market
     • other firms directly take other side
       of trade
•   remainder executed on trading floor
    or Nasdaq (downstairs)
program trades

• large # shares, different stocks
• used by mutual funds for asset
    allocation
•   want
    • low commissions
    • prevent frontrunning
what is frontrunning?

• brokers trade ahead of program
 trade
  • to benefit from anticipated price
    movements
  • due to large trade
example
• broker buys ahead of large buy order
     • broker buys first
     • large buy order pushes up price
     • broker’s holdings increase in value
•   result
     • frontrunning starts to push up
       price, so firm does not get best
       price
agency basis

• brokers bid for trade by commission
• low commission, but
• frontrunning likely
agency incentive agreement

• set benchmark value for trade
     • based on last day’s prices
•   if broker does better
     • gets commission + bonus
•   higher commission, but
•   frontrunning less likely
III. Stock market indicators

• measure average performance of a
    group of stocks
•   different indexes are highly
    correlated:
    • DJIA & S&P 500 .991 (1990s)
    • DJIA & NYSE .95
indexes differ due to

• stocks included in the index
• weighting of stocks
    • equal, price, value
•   average
    • arithmetic
    • geometric
stock exchange index

• includes all stocks listed on
    exchange
•   NYSE Composite
•   Nasdaq Composite
•   (both value weighted)
subjectively selected index

• organization picks group of stocks
    to measure
•   Dow Jones Industrial average
•   S&P 500
DJIA
• price weighted
• 30 large blue chip companies
     • cross section of industries
     • leaders
•   large movements in DJIA may halt
    trading on NYSE
S&P 500

• 500 large blue chip companies
• value weighted
• most popular benchmark for index
 funds
objectively selected index

•   inclusion of stock based on objective
    criteria
     • market value
•   Wilshire 5000
     • all publicly traded stocks
•   Russell 2000
     • largest 3000 companies, then take
       smallest 2000 of those
IV. Pricing Efficiency of the
     Stock Market

• what information is reflected in
 current stock prices?
 • what implications does this have
   for active vs. passive investment
   strategies?
3 levels of price efficiency

• what are they?
• implication?
• evidence for U.S. stock markets?
Weak form efficiency

• current stock prices reflect
  • information about past prices
  • and trading history
implication

• if markets are weak-form efficient
  • using past price/trading pattern to
    predict future stock prices will not
    work
  • so, technical analysis will fail to
    beat the market
evidence

• U.S. stock market is weak-form
    efficient
•   technical analysts do not beat the
    market
     • especially after trading costs
Semi strong form efficiency

• current stock prices reflect
  • all publicly available information
  relevant to stock
    -- economic data
    -- financial statements
implication

• using public info to predict future
 stock prices will not work
 • fundamental analysis will fail to
   beat market
evidence

• mixed
• Yes
  • most actively managed portfolios
    do not outperform randomly
    selected portfolios
• No.
  • certain pricing anomalies persist
    for long periods of time
  • January effect
  • size effect
Strong form efficiency

• current stock prices reflect all
 information
  • public and private
implication

• impossible to predict future stock
 prices
 • stock prices are a random walk
evidence

• U.S. stock market is not strong form
    efficient
•   why?
    • corporate insiders consistently
      outperform market
    • & they have access to private info
active strategy

• using fundamental or technical
    analysis to select stocks to buy/sell
•   growth, sector, value funds
•   trading on this info increases
     • trading costs
     • tax consequences
•   odds of working are low
passive strategy
• believe market is efficient, just
    capture long-run returns of market
•   buy-and-hold diversified portfolio
     • index funds
•   lower expenses, defer taxes
•   index funds outperform most
    actively managed funds

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342chapter18

  • 1. Chapter 18. The Common Stock Market • Types of markets • Trading mechanics • Stock market indexes • Pricing efficiency
  • 2. Common stock • equity security • ownership • entitled to distributed earnings • entitled to share of assets
  • 3. I. Type of Markets • exchanges • OTC trading of • unlisted stocks & listed stocks • direct trading
  • 4. Exchanges • physical location for trading • trading by members • own a seat on the exchange • stock traded on exchange are listed stocks
  • 5. NYSE • the “Big Board” • about 2800 listed U.S. companies • & 450 non-U.S. companies • $18 trillion market value (2/04) • 1366 seats (fixed) • seat price $2 million 2002 • 10/2003 $1.35 million
  • 6. • stocks trade at post on the trading floor • 20 posts, trading about 100 stocks • each stock has one specialist • 10 specialist firms, 470 specialists • each specialist has 5-10 stocks • process trades from floor brokers (5%) and electronically (95%)
  • 7. role of the specialist • MUST maintain a fair and orderly market for stock • act as buyer or seller as needed (10% of trades) • match buyers and sellers • maintain order priority
  • 8. the future of the specialist • may be phased on with next 5-10 years • recent SEC fines for improper trading for several major firms
  • 9. AMEX • merged w/ Nasdaq 1998 • specializes in equity derivative securities and closed-end funds
  • 10. Regional exchanges • stocks may be listed on both NYSE and regional exchange • 5 regional exchanges • cheaper seat prices
  • 11. OTC markets • electronic network of dealers all over the world • ECNs • electronic communication networks • more than one dealer per stock • not obligated to make a market
  • 12. Nasdaq • not the only OTC system, but the largest • over 4000 companies listed • mkt. value $2 trillion (2/28/03) • leader in daily share volume • over 500 dealers • listing requirements
  • 13.
  • 14. II. Trading Mechanics • types of orders • short selling • buying on the margin • institutional trading
  • 15. Types of orders • instructions from investors to brokers • market order • buy/sell order to be executed at best price -- get lowest price for buy order -- get highest price for sell order
  • 16. • market order (cont.) • market orders given priority in trading • no guarantee of execution price -- price could rise/fall from time order is placed to time it is executed
  • 17. • limit order • buy/sell order where investor specifies price range • “buy at $50 or less” • “sell at $52 or more” • specialist records orders in limit order book
  • 18. • investor sets reservation price BUT • no guarantee that limit order will be executed
  • 19. • stop order • order lies dormant • turns into market order when certain price (“the stop”) is reached • “buy if price rises to $60” • “sell if price falls to $58” -- stop loss order
  • 20. • investor does not have to watch market • but in a volatile market stop could be triggered prematurely -- end up trading unnecessarily
  • 21. • stop limit order • turns into limit order when stop is reached • “buy if price rises to $60, but only is executed at $65 or less”
  • 22. • market if touched order • turns into market order if certain price is reached • “buy if price falls to $55” • “sell if price rises to $62”
  • 23. how long is an order good? • fill or kill order • executed when reaches trading floor, or canceled • good until canceled/open order • is good indefinitely
  • 24. order size • round lots • lots of 100 shares • odd lots • less than 100 shares • more difficult to trade • block trades • 10,000 shares or $200,000 value
  • 25. short selling • sale of borrowed stock • profit from belief that stock price is too high will fall soon • how? • borrow stock through broker • sell stock • buy and return later
  • 26. • short selling could further destabilize falling prices • tick test rules on exchange • short sales allowed if • uptick or zero uptick in price for previous trades: • $20.75, $21 (uptick) • $20.75, $20.75 (zero upick) • $20.75, $20 (downtick)
  • 27. • so short sellers • believe price will fall and SOON • but price not currently falling • face unlimited losses if price rises
  • 28. Buying on the margin • buyer borrows part of purchase price of stock, using stock as collateral • borrow at call money rate • Fed sets initial margin requirement • minimum cash payment • 50% since 1975
  • 29. • if stock price falls • collateral worth less • if collateral worth only 125% of loan (maintenance margin) -- margin call -- owner must put up more cash or sell stock • margin calls can worsen stock crash
  • 30. example • 1000 shares, $20 per share • $20,000 cost • $10,000 cash, borrow $10,000 • leverage • gains/losses on $20,000 capital • but tied up only $10,000 capital
  • 31. • if prices falls to $12, • value of stock $12,000 • below 125% of $10,000 loan • get a margin call
  • 32. Institutional trading • vs. retail trades • institutional trades are larger • special execution • over 50% of NYSE share volume
  • 33. block trades • large # shares in one stock • executed in “upstairs” market • other firms directly take other side of trade • remainder executed on trading floor or Nasdaq (downstairs)
  • 34. program trades • large # shares, different stocks • used by mutual funds for asset allocation • want • low commissions • prevent frontrunning
  • 35. what is frontrunning? • brokers trade ahead of program trade • to benefit from anticipated price movements • due to large trade
  • 36. example • broker buys ahead of large buy order • broker buys first • large buy order pushes up price • broker’s holdings increase in value • result • frontrunning starts to push up price, so firm does not get best price
  • 37. agency basis • brokers bid for trade by commission • low commission, but • frontrunning likely
  • 38. agency incentive agreement • set benchmark value for trade • based on last day’s prices • if broker does better • gets commission + bonus • higher commission, but • frontrunning less likely
  • 39. III. Stock market indicators • measure average performance of a group of stocks • different indexes are highly correlated: • DJIA & S&P 500 .991 (1990s) • DJIA & NYSE .95
  • 40. indexes differ due to • stocks included in the index • weighting of stocks • equal, price, value • average • arithmetic • geometric
  • 41. stock exchange index • includes all stocks listed on exchange • NYSE Composite • Nasdaq Composite • (both value weighted)
  • 42. subjectively selected index • organization picks group of stocks to measure • Dow Jones Industrial average • S&P 500
  • 43. DJIA • price weighted • 30 large blue chip companies • cross section of industries • leaders • large movements in DJIA may halt trading on NYSE
  • 44. S&P 500 • 500 large blue chip companies • value weighted • most popular benchmark for index funds
  • 45. objectively selected index • inclusion of stock based on objective criteria • market value • Wilshire 5000 • all publicly traded stocks • Russell 2000 • largest 3000 companies, then take smallest 2000 of those
  • 46. IV. Pricing Efficiency of the Stock Market • what information is reflected in current stock prices? • what implications does this have for active vs. passive investment strategies?
  • 47. 3 levels of price efficiency • what are they? • implication? • evidence for U.S. stock markets?
  • 48. Weak form efficiency • current stock prices reflect • information about past prices • and trading history
  • 49. implication • if markets are weak-form efficient • using past price/trading pattern to predict future stock prices will not work • so, technical analysis will fail to beat the market
  • 50. evidence • U.S. stock market is weak-form efficient • technical analysts do not beat the market • especially after trading costs
  • 51. Semi strong form efficiency • current stock prices reflect • all publicly available information relevant to stock -- economic data -- financial statements
  • 52. implication • using public info to predict future stock prices will not work • fundamental analysis will fail to beat market
  • 53. evidence • mixed • Yes • most actively managed portfolios do not outperform randomly selected portfolios
  • 54. • No. • certain pricing anomalies persist for long periods of time • January effect • size effect
  • 55. Strong form efficiency • current stock prices reflect all information • public and private
  • 56. implication • impossible to predict future stock prices • stock prices are a random walk
  • 57. evidence • U.S. stock market is not strong form efficient • why? • corporate insiders consistently outperform market • & they have access to private info
  • 58. active strategy • using fundamental or technical analysis to select stocks to buy/sell • growth, sector, value funds • trading on this info increases • trading costs • tax consequences • odds of working are low
  • 59. passive strategy • believe market is efficient, just capture long-run returns of market • buy-and-hold diversified portfolio • index funds • lower expenses, defer taxes • index funds outperform most actively managed funds