1. Kingdom of Spain
Economic Policy and 2010 Funding
Strategy
Secretary of State for the Economy
February 2010
y

2. • Highlights
• The long growth cycle and the crisis
• Fi
Fiscal consolidation and structural reform
l lid ti d t t l f
• Funding Strategy of the Kingdom of Spain
g gy g p
~2009~
1

3. Highlights
• Long growth cycle previous to the international crisis
• Important challenges ahead: Unemployment and deficit,
consequence of the crisis but also symptoms of underlying
structural shortcomings
• The Spanish Government is determined to act:
p
• Fiscal consolidation: A cut of 5.7% of GDP in structural
primary deficit in 2010-2013
•SStructural reforms to boost potential GDP: Sustainable
l f b i l GDP S i bl
Economy, Bank Reorganisation, Pensions, Labour Market
• Strengths: Sound financial system, low Debt/GDP,
institutional ability for reform
2

4. • Highlights
• The long growth cycle and the crisis
• Fiscal consolidation and structural reform
• Funding Strategy of the Kingdom of Spain
3

5. 1994-2008: Convergence and Debt reduction
• GDP per capita has leapt forward, exceeding the average of EU-25
• Fiscal rigour during the good times allowed debt to GDP to be more
than halved
GDP Debt to GDP
(Year on year real growth rates) (% nominal GDP)
80%
6% Euro-area
Spain
4% 70%
2% 60%
Euro-area
0%
50%
-2% Spain
40%
-4%
-6% 30%
2000
0
2001
2002
2
2003
3
2004
4
2005
5
2006
6
2007
7
2008
8
2009
9
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: Eurostat. Source: Eurostat.
4

6. Investment binge: housing and beyond
• What has fuelled domestic demand is a soaring investment rate,
with the national savings rate staying close to Eurozone average
• The housing boom is part of the story, but not the whole story
Savings rate Investment rate vs. Savings rate
(
(% nominal GDP)
) (% nominal GDP)
o a G )
34
30
25
30
20
26
15 22
10 18
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
199
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
Belgium Germany Spain France Italy
2000 2005 2009* Savings rate Investment rate
Source: Eurostat.
Source: Eurostat.
* 2009Q3 5

7. Investment binge: housing and beyond
• The residential real estate sector grabbed a non-sustainable share
of GDP and employment…
Construction Sector: Gross Value Added and Employment
(% Total Value Added and of Total Employment)
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
995
996
997
998
999
000
001
002
003
004
005
006
007
008
009
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Full-time equivalent employees Gross Value Added
Source: National Statistics Institute, Spain.
6

8. Investment binge: housing and beyond
• …but Spain has also invested heavily in equipment, infrastructure
and Research and Development
Investment in equipment
(average growth, 1995-2008 in percent) Public Investment
5.0 (% of GDP)
10
8 4.0
40
6 3.0
4 2.0
2 1.0
0 0.0
UK
UK
UK
E U -15
E U -15
E U -15
Italy
G erm any
G erm any
G erm any
N etherlan
N etherlan
N etherlan
D enm ark
D enm ark
D enm ark
S pain
S pain
S pain
A ustria
Finland
France
France
France
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
k
k
k
y
y
y
EU-27
EU 27 GERMANY FRANCE ITALY UK SPAIN
nds
nds
nds
Source: Eurostat.
7

9. Intensive in employment
• Residential construction attracted low skilled labour, dragging
productivity lower
• Labour supply matched this demand with the help of immigration
flows
Active population Labor productivity
(Growth rates from 2005Q1 to 2009Q3)
( e at e
(Relative to EU-27, PPP)
U , )
12% 107
10% 106
8% 105
104
6%
103
4%
102
2% 101
0% 100
Germany
y
Italy
y
Spain
n
France
e
Belgium
m
m
Kingdom
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
United
Source: Eurostat. Labor Force Survey.
Source: Eurostat. Labor Force Survey. 8

10. Cost competitiveness
• Loss of competitiveness has been moderate in the tradable sector
• Nominal divergence stems from non-tradables (where the bulk of
the adjustment is taking place)
Unit labour cost index Manufacturing ULC index
(Relative to eurozone 1999=100) (Relative to eurozone 1999=100)
125 140
120 130
115 120
110 110
105 100
100 90
95 80 999
000
001
002
003
004
005
006
007
008
009
999
000
001
002
003
004
005
006
007
008
009
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Spain Italy Germany France Spain Italy Germany France
Source: Eurostat.
Source: Eurostat 9

11. Exports show underlying improvement in supply
• In spite of brisk domestic demand and waning price
competitiveness…
• …Spain's market shares have outperformed most of peers
Share in world merchandise exports Share in world exports of services*
(Index 2000=100) 150 (Index 2000=100)
120
110
125
100
90 100
80
75
70
60 50
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Spain Germany France United States Spain Germany France United States
Source: International Monetary Fund. Source: World Trade Organisation.
* Services other than transportation and travel.
10

12. Services Exports’ market share has increased
significantly
• Among others, services related to architecture, construction and
engineering have more than doubled market share
Share of service exports in the OCDE, by service
10
2000
2007
8
6
4
2
0
otal
rism
ment
tion
Entertainm ent
Insurance
cial
Transportation
and
Professional
ons
services to
and engineering
al,
es
n,
To
Financ
Communicatio
construction
service
Otherr
Architectura
Royalties a
patentss
Governm
Tour
Informat
services
Source: OECD. 11

13. FDI flows have increased significantly
• Outward FDI stock per capita has grown faster in Spain than in
the Eurozone
• Remains a major destination of international investment
Outward FDI stock per capita Top receivers of FDI in 2008
relative to Eurozone (Stock in millions of US $)
2500000
0.90
2000000
0.85
0.80 1500000
0.75 1000000
0.70 500000
0.65 0
Germany
UK
US
China
Canada
Belgium
Hong Kong
France
Italy
herlands
Spain
tzerland
0.60
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Neth
G
Swit
Source: World Investment Report 2009
Source: World Investment Report 2009
12

14. The crisis prompts an abrupt adjustment
• Rapid downsizing of residential sector: output, L (mainly in
temporary contracts)
• Ripple effects on employment in other sectors
Unemployment rate
20 (In percent)
Sectoral employment
16 (total number)
july 2008 sept 2009 dif %
Total 19.382.121 17.935.095 -1.447.026 (100)
12
Construction 2.361.177 1.752.157 -609.021 (42,1)
Industry 2.731.068 2.377.211 -353.857
353.857 (24,5)
8 Services 13.150.027 12.599.061 -550.966 (38,1)
Sources: Eurostat. Labor Force Survey.
4
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Spain Euro area (16 countries)
Sources: Eurostat. Labor Force Survey.
13

15. Changes in sectoral and external balances
• Large swing in private sector balance: plummeting Investment and
soaring Savings
• Government Deficit jumps, but 2.5 points of GDP are one-off
• Current Account deficit has halved in 2009
Sectoral balances
(% of GDP)
Public Sector Balance
8 6,5
6 Private Sector
4 1,9
2
% 0
-2
-4
-6 -4,1
-5,0
-8
-10
-12 -11,0 -11,4
-14
2007 2008 2009
Source: National Statistics Institute, Spain. 14

16. • Hi hli ht
Highlights
• The long growth cycle and the crisis
• Fiscal consolidation and structural reform
• Funding Strategy of the Kingdom of Spain
15

17. Policy Strategy for Sustainable Growth
• Prudent Macroeconomic Scenario 2010-2013
• Agreement on Fiscal Consolidation to bring the deficit
g g
back to 3% in 2013
• Structural Reforms:
• Structural Reforms in the goods markets
• Public Pensions System
• Labour Market
• Banking sector Restructuring
16

18. The Government’s Macroeconomic scenario
• The output gap will be closed by 2013, after peaking in 2010
• External demand contribution to GDP will gradually wane as
do est c de a d gat e s stea
domestic demand gathers steam
• Potential growth will recover from a trough of 0.6% in 2010 to
1.6% in 2013
Macroeconomic scenario 2009-2013 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
(Growth rate in percent)
GDP -3.6 -0.3 1.8 2.9 3.1
Final Consumption Expenditure -2.4 0.3 1.7 2.2 2.1
Gross Fixed Capital Formation -15.7
15 7 -6.5
65 0.3
03 4.2
42 5.9
59
National Demand (contribution to GDP growth) -6.4 -1.4 1.4 2.6 3.0
Exports of Goods and Services -12.4 2.8 5.2 6.9 7.4
Imports of Goods and Services -18.7 -1.3 3.7 5.8 6.8
External demand (contribution to GDP growth) 2.8 1.1 0.4 0.3 0.1
Source: Annual update of the Stability Programme.
17

19. Fiscal consolidation strategy
• Substantial reduction in Spending and moderate increase
in Revenues
• Already in 2010 a 2.2% cut in structural deficit
Fiscal Adjustment Path 2009-2013 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
(Growth rate in percent)
GDP -3.6 -0.3 1.8 2.9 3.1
General G
G l Government Budget Balance (% of GDP)
tB d tB l f -11.4
11 4 -9.8
98 -7.5
75 -5.3
53 -3.0
30
General Government Gross Debt (% of GDP) 55.2 65.9 71.9 74.3 74.1
Source: Annual update of the Stability Programme.
18

20. Starting and final points of fiscal consolidation
• Temporary measures (changes in tax collection, one off
investment funds) account for 2.4% points of GDP in 2009’s total
deficit
• Total size of fiscal policy adjustment (structural terms): 5.7% of
GDP
Fiscal position 2009 2013
General Government Balance (1) -11,4 -3
Cyclical component (2) -1,4 0
Interest payments (3) -1 9
1,9 -3 1
3,1
Temporary measures (4) -2,5 0
Structural Primary Balance (1)-(2)-(3)-(4) -5,6 0,1
Source: Annual update of the Stability Programme.
19

21. Fiscal restraint measures
Measures adopted and announced (% of GDP)
Revenues Expenditures
VAT 0.7
Excise Taxes 0.3
400€ Tax Rebate Reform 0.4
2010 Budget
Savings Tax Reform 0.1
SME Corporate Tax Reform -0.1
Government Expenditure -0.8
Additional cut in 2010 Expenditure -0.5
New Measures* Central Government Austerity Plan 2011-2013 -2.6
Regional and local government Spending cuts
R i l dl l tS di t -0.5
05
Source: Annual update of the Stability Programme.
• Restraint in wage outlays for all public administrations through:
• 10% replacement rate
• No new temporary hiring
• Strong moderation in wages
• Sizable cuts in investment, transfers and subsidies
20

22. Can we implement this?
• We have done it in the past which proves our compromise the
past, compromise,
quality of our public finances, and the success of our fiscal
discipline.
• Shared commitment to fiscal discipline and margin to secure
further reductions in the deficit
Net Lending (+)/Borrowing (-) of General Government
4.0 (% nominal GDP EDP)
GDP,
2.0
0.0
-2.0
40
-4.0
-6.0
-8.0
-10.0
-12.0
-14.0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010*
2011*
2012*
2013*
* Annual update of the Stability Programme. 21

23. Debt dynamics
• Even after the impact of strong stabilisation policies, Spain's Debt
to GDP is significantly lower that the Eurozone average
Gross Debt-to-GDP (%) Gross Debt-to-GDP (%)
2000-2010 2010F
90 125.0
France
80 Germany
112.5
Eurozone
Spain 100.0
Average: 84.0%
70 87.5
75.0
60 65 9
65.9
62.5
62 5
50.0
50 55.2
37.5
40 25.0
39.7
12.5
30 0.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Spain Ireland France Germany Italy UK USA
Sources: European Commission, Annual update of the Stability Programme and International Monetary Fund.
22

24. Lowest interest burden within affordable limits
Ratio of interests to GDP of General Government
(% nominal GDP, EDP)
13
11
9
7
5
3
1
*
*
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Spain Germany France Belgium Italy UK
Source: European Commission.
* European Economic Forecast Autumn 2009, European Commission.
23

25. Structural Reforms in product markets
• Improving the institutional environment for business: by
modernizing and simplifying government activities as well as
increasing general government discipline
• Fostering competitiveness: by reducing the administrative
burden of creating companies and reducing red tape
• Fostering modernization: promoting sectors that are at the base
of economic activity (R&D, innovation and training), improving
support f for their integration into the overall value chain, and
h h ll l h d
facilitating the internationalization of businesses
Estimated impact on GDP + 0.32% in Potential GDP
24

26. Residential Real Estate Sector
• Phasing out fiscal incentives for housing ownership from
2011 (deduction of mortgage payments)
• Removing barriers to the development of the rental market:
• Same fiscal treatment than ownership
• C
Creation of REITS
ti f
• Legal changes to strengthen certainty for landlords
• Tax Incentives for refurbishment provide some support
p pp
25

27. 26
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reorganisation
enhancement
Capital
and
stimulus
Credit
Liquidity enhancement
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28. The financial system remains resilient
• Main source of perceived vulnerability regards losses
stemming from lending to real estate developers
i f l di l d l
• Bank of Spain stress test: Operating income over 3
years is able to absorb losses of 40% of the portfolio
of lending to real estate developers.
• Extreme assumptions of stress test: PD of 40%(3
times th peak of 1993) and LGD of 100 % (hi hl
ti the k f d f (highly
implausible)
27

29. FROB: a tool for restructuring the banking sector
Rationale for the initiative Governance
- Overcoming fragmentation in the - Independent management.
savings and banks sector.
- Strong accountability to Parliament
Parliament.
- Achievement of economies of scale to
digest low interest margins and real - Authorized by DG Competition.
estate impact.
Asset Operations Funding
- Support to integration processes subject - Public-private mix of capital (9 bn€).
to conditions set by the banking
supervisor. - Agency-like funding programme
coordinated with the sovereign
- Instrumented through convertible programme.
preference shares with market-oriented
remuneration.
28

30. Pension System Reform
Proposed Measures:
• A progressive increase in the retirement age (to 67
years)
• Strengthening relationship between contributions and benefits
• A more flexible relationship between complementary social
p p y
security and the public system
• Possible adjustment of other parameters of the current system
Expected Results: Sustainability of the pension system
29

31. Labour Market Reform
• Five main guidelines:
• St bilit in employment, by reducing market segmentation
Stability i l t b d i k t t ti
• Reform of Collective Bargaining system
• Incentives for young workers’ employment and education
workers
• Promotion of the integration of women in the labour market
• Worker intermediation and greater control of temporary
occupational disability claims
30

32. • Highlights
• The long growth cycle and the crisis
• Fiscal consolidation and structural reform
• Funding Strategy of the Kingdom of Spain
31

33. Highlights of Funding Strategy
• Significant reduction in net funding requirements and
persistence of sound risk metrics
• Liquidity transparency and predictability will continue
Liquidity,
as guiding principles for the execution of our auction program
• As for syndications, timing is dictated by the limit size of the
line to be replaced (16.5 bn for longer tenors) and market
conditions.
• Innovations for 2010: 18 month T bills reappear Euro
18-month T-bills reappear,
inflation linker still a project
• Maintain our stable and diversified investor base
32

34. The funding strategy
Tesoro Funding in 2010
(Billion euro)
1: Funding requirement = Net Issuance 76.8
2: Redemptions bonds 2010 35.4
3: Net issuance medium long term 61.6
4 = 2 + 3 Gross Issuance Medium-Long Term 97,0
5: Net Increase T-Bills 15.2
6: Assumption of RTVE debt 1.5
7 = 3 + 5 + 6: Net change outstanding debt 78.3
8: Forecast Outstanding Central Government Debt at end 2010 553.5
Source: General State Budgets Bill 2010
33

35. Funding programme in perspective
• Cut in Net Issuance: lower cash deficit and no exceptional
increase in net financial assets
Funding Programme. 2010 vs. 2009
140 (Net issuance in billion Euro)
120 116.7
2009 2010
100
82.3
76.8
80
61.6
60
40 34.4
34 4
20 15.2
0
Total N t I
T t l Net Issuance Letras del Tesoro net M di
L t d lT t Medium & long term
l t
issues net issues*
(*) Includes foreign currency issues.
Source: Dirección General del Tesoro y Política Financiera. 34

36. Short-term funding
• Net issuance in 2009 in line with initial announcement: 34.4 bn€.
Gross issuance breakdown:
• 3-month Letras: 19.7 bn€
• 6-month Letras: 31.6 bn€
• 12-month Letras: 58.0 bn€
12 month
• Innovations in 2010:
• Calendar change: 3- and 6-month Letras auction 4th Tuesday
• 18-month T-bills relaunched: auction 3rd Tuesday
35

37. Medium- and long-term funding
• Gross issuance: 2009 overshooting (ca. 25 bn €) due to higher than
expected impact of the crisis
• Auction procedures unchanged: Quarterly calendar + potential off-
the-run lines announced Friday prior to the auction
• Limit size per line: increased to 16.5 bn € for longer lines
• Bonos del Estado:
• New 5-year benchmark in March
• Current 3-year benchmark B 2.30% 04/2013 issued until 15 bn €
• Obli
Obligaciones d l E t d
i del Estado:
• New 10 year O 4.00% 04/2020 (5 bn €) successfully syndicated in
January
• Next syndication a 15 year line, to replace the matured O 4.80% Jan-
2024), expected for February depending on market conditions
36

38. Diversification of funding sources
• Recent foreign currency issuance:
• Eurobond 2.75% March 2012 ($ 1.0 billion)
• Eurobond 2 00% October 2012 ($ 2 5 billion)
2.00% 2.5
• Tesoro Público is open to additional foreign currency issuance
• Floating Rate Note 3-Month EURIBOR-10 bps, October 2012
3 Month EURIBOR 10
(€ 3.0 billion). Possible retapping in 2010
• Projects:
• European inflation-linked issues (HICP-ex tobacco)
• Schuldschein loans
37

39. Main features of Treasury funding strategy
600 Spanish debt portfolio 554
(€ billion)
500 475
400 358
319 312 307
300
229
200
100
0
995
996
997
998
999
000
001
002
003
004
005
006
007
008
009
2010 (f)
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
0
Foreign Currency Other Letras Bonos y Obligaciones
Source: Dirección General del Tesoro y Política Financiera. 38

40. -75
-50
-25
25
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
Sep-0
07
Oct-0
07
Nov-0
07
Dec-0
07
Jan-0
08
Source: Bloomberg.
Feb-0
08
Mar-0
08
Apr-08
Germany
08
May-0
Jun-008
Jul-0
08
Italy
Aug-08
Sep-008
Oct-008
Nov-0
08
France
Dec-0
08
(in bps)
Jan-0
09
Feb-0
09
Mar-0
09
Apr-09
Belgium
May-009
Jun-009
Jul-0
09
Aug-09
09
Sep-0
Netherlands
Oct-0
09
Nov-0
09
Dec-0
09
Jan-10
Spread of the Spanish 10-year bond vs. main European peers
Recent widening might be an opportunity
Feb-10
39

41. -75
-50
-25
25
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
S
Sep-0
07
Oct-0
07
Nov-0
07
Dec-0
07
Jan-008
Source: Bloomberg.
Feb-008
Mar-008
Spread of th S
Apr-008
Germany
May-008
Jun-008
Jul-0
08
d f the Spanish 5
Italy
Aug-0
08
Sep-0
08
Oct-0
08
Nov-0
08
Dec-0
08
France
(in bps)
b d
Jan-0
09
Feb-0
09
Mar-0
09
Apr-0
09
Belgium
May-0
09
Jun-009
i E
Jul-0
09
Aug-0
09
Sep-0
09
Netherlands
Oct-0
09
Nov-0
09
Dec-0
09
Jan-1
10
i h 5-year bond vs. main European peers
Cheapening concentrated in the front end
Feb-1
10
40

42. An atractive market to invest in
Attractive prices Liquid instruments
Solid and efficient Diversified investor
infrastructure base
41

43. Increase in market liquidity
Average outstanding size: 13 5 b €
A t t di i 13.5 bn
Target for average outstanding <10 years: 15 bn €
20
Target for average outstanding >10 years: 15 bn €
18 On-the-run bonds 4.10%
6.00%
3.25% 5.40% 4.40%
16 4.10%
4 10% 3.90%
3 90% 4.20%
4 20% 3.30% 3.15%
3 15% 5.50%
5 50% 4.30%
4 30% 4.20%
5.35% 6.15% 4.75% 4.60% 4.80%
14 5.00% 3.80% 5.75%
4.25% 4.90%
2.75%
12 2.30%
10
8
6 4.00% 4.70%
4
2
0
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jul-19
Jul-32
Jul-40
Jul-41
-13
-14
-15
-16
-17
-24
-29
-37
-11
-11
-12
-12
-13
-14
-19
-20
Jan-
Jan-
Jan-
Jan-
Jan-
Jan-
Jan-
Jan-
Apr-
Oct-
Apr-
Oct-
Apr-
Oct-
Oct-
Apr-
Source: Dirección General del Tesoro y Política Financiera.
42

44. Low Debt Refinancing Risk…
Redemption profile of Bonos & Obligaciones
(Million Euros)
50.000
45.000
40.000
35.000
30.000
30 000
25.000
20.000
15.000
10.000
5.000
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020- 2024 2029 2032 2037 2040 2041
2023
Source: Dirección General del Tesoro y Política Financiera. 43

45. Low Debt Refinancing Risk…
Central Government Debt refinancing risk
(in % of the total portfolio)
50
42
40
30
(%)
24
20 21 22 21
20 18 18
10 7
0
1 year or less 1 to 3 years 3 to 5 years
31.12.1995 31.12.1999 31.01.2010
Source: Dirección General del Tesoro y Política Financiera.
44

46. …Thanks to relatively high duration and average life
to maturity…
Duration & Average Life to Maturity of the Portfolio
(Letras, Bonos and Obligaciones)
8.0
(in years)
6.69
6 69 6.78
6 78
5.52
6.0
4.79
4.77
4.0
4.16
Average life
France 6,24
2.0 Netherlands 6,88
Belgium 5,94
Italy 7,07
0.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Duration Average life
Source: Dirección General del Tesoro y Política Financiera. 45

47. …while achieving lower Funding Costs
Average Funding Costs
(in percent)
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5 4.32
4.0
3.5 3.81 3.49
3.0
2.5
2.27
2.0
1.5
1.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Average cost of Debt outstanding Average cost at issuance
Source: Dirección General del Tesoro y Política Financiera.
46

48. Reliance on foreign funding relatively moderate
External public sector debt in 2009
100 (% of GDP)
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Italy
Argentina
Germany
Greece
Austria
France
Ireland
Finland
Spain
United
Belgium
Kingdom
States
herlands
United
G
K
Neth
A
Source: OECD.
47

49. Banks financing of government debt in line with
Eurozone average
Holdings of government debt November 2009
(% of bank assets)
25
20
15
10
5
0
ermany
ortugal
Belgium
lovakia
Greece
France
Eur area
Ireland
Finland
Italy
erlands
Spain
Austria
ro
Po
F
F
G
A
Nethe
Ge
B
Sl
Source: Citi.
48

50. Spanish Banks’ funding from ECB around
Eurozone average
Recourse to ECB funding
(% of total bank assets)
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
IRL
IT
FI
NL
GR
AU
FR
PO
GE
ESP
BE
jul-08
jul 08 oct-09
oct 09
Source: Deutsche Bank.
49