prof Pawel Boski

1. Central-EasternorPost-Communist Europe? Alwaysbehindthe West? Paweł Boski Institute of Psychology PolishAcademy of Sciences Keynoteaddressatthe Conference on FromTotalitarianismtowardsDemocracyinCentral-Eastern Europe Warsaw, November 18-20

2. Acknowledgement I acknowledge great help from my student, Marcin Nagraba, inobtaining and processingEuroStat data, essentialinanalysespresentedinthislecture

4. Plan of my talk A briefhistoricalaccount of stunningdifferencesbetweenEastern and Western parts of Europe; East – West comparisonsinsocio-economicindicesduringthelast 10 years; East – West comparisonsinstandings on culture’spsychologicaldimensionsand a model of relations betweensocio-economic and psychologicalvariables.

5. Europe: A dividedsubcontinent Europe: A small piece of land, craddle of an important civilisation, with many languages and fluctuatingnations (their numbers not known exactly) in perpetual war conflicts, counterbalanced by unifying forces. This definition stands for the past and for the present. Often, in this context, the roots of European civilization are characterized by: Greek philosophy and science; Roman law and; Judeo-Christian religion; [French would add 18th century Lumière- theEnlightenment ideals of universalism and modernism]

6. South – North: The first historical split When we move to the ancient period of our history, a clear split in Europe becomes very noticeable: Civilized South, i.e. Greek and then Roman empire vs “Barbarian” rest. In fact, the boundaries of Europe were equivalent with the area of Roman influence. This dividing line was the most crucial axis until the end of ancient times. Later, it lost that prime importance but remains of a noticeable relevance today.

7. Early East – West Division The grains of a new split were seeded with the division of Roman Empire (Constantine, Diocletian) into its Western and Eastern (Bizantine) branches in 4th Century. With the recognition of Christianity, this split became religious, contrasting the Pope and Roman-Catholic church with Bizantine Patriarch and Orthodox church; it was sealed with the 11th century schism. Interestingly, Constantinopole and then Moscow were called 2nd and 3rd Rome, respectively. The Holy Roman Empire (of the German Nation) reached its end only after 1806 after the battle of Austerlitz, from victorious Napoleon Bonaparte. Latin language and alphabet vs. eastern cyrillic script became equally important elements of cultural heritage.

8. End of Medieval era: The West starts showing the edge During the medieval times, Constantinople was the largest city in Europe, and with the Golden Age in the Balkans (Serbia, Bulgaria), the Eastern part did not lag behind the West. Capture of Constantinopole by the Turks (1453), and the Renaissance revival in the West became the turning points in the history. Since then, Western Europe entered the path of dynamic growth, while its South-Central part entered the period of stagnation and subjugation to Ottoman and Russian empires. Since Renaissance, Western centers became the beacons or models of cultural, scientific and later, with – the onset of protestantism - of economic development.

11. Modeling after the West: Polish examples (studying abroad and early ‘brain drain’) Nicolas Copernicus (in 15th c.) and Maria Sklodowska-Curie(in 19th ) are the best known world class scientists in the span of 400 years. The former studied in Padua, while the latter in Sorbonne. To achieve any success in science, arts and humanities, it became obligatory to study in the West and to stay there or bring back the acquired knowledge and skills. There has been basic asymmetry in cultural exchange over the times, only with shifting centers- from Western cities to American – more recently. This tendency is well known in other countries of the region.

12. Central – Eastern Europe as West Bis It is amusing when we enumerate a long list of locations and names in our region coined after Western originals: Constantinopole and Moscow as 2nd and 3rdRomes; Bydgoszcz, Pultusk, Olsztyn – towns in Poland are Venice(s) of the North; Royal Palace of Wilanów (in Warsaw) isknown as PolishVersaille; Bucarest = Paris of Romania; Krynica (a small Polish mountain resort) = Polish Davos; Łódź (Polish industrial city) used to be known as Polish Manchester; A wife of a political leader, and apresidentialcontenderis called Polish Carla Bruni; Highest scientific awardsarenicknamedPolish Nobel Prize

13. West isbetterthanthe East withinthe same country orevenin capital cities! Western Germany >Eastern (former DDR); Western Poland >Eastern Poland; Czechia>Slovakia(in theformerCzecho-Slovakia); Slovenia & Croatia> Serbia and otherformerYugoslavrepublics; Western Hungary and Romania > Easternparts of bothcountries Western=Royal{Kiyiv, Warsaw, Buda, Prague, Berlin, Paris, London} > Easterndistricts of thesecities.

14. Historical Backwardness of Central and Eastern Europe? For the last 600 years there has been a well documented East European lag in technological, artistic, and economic advancement vis a vis the West; This pervading fact of backwardness can not be reduced to the 50 years of communism but goes much deeper. Ideas and capital travel East; People go West.

15. What was the impact of Communism? Freezing socio – economic development in the region during the time of unprecedented growth period in the West after WWII; Increasing the preexisting differences on the continent; Creating perpetual shortages of all goods and services Devastating non-economic factors ofpsychologicalnature, such as: fear, vengeance, low social capital (mistrust), cynicism vis-a-vis official propaganda, conformity, and low life satisfaction.

16. East vs West in XXI century:EmpiricalComparisons (Part I)

17. Databases and Analyses Our analyses will be based on EuroStat data for the last 10 years; These are macroeconomic and socio-political indices (all standardized before running analyses); I will first compare two categories of EU countries: those which belonged to the Soviet block, and the these without communist past. [Analyses performed separately for year 2000 and ≈10 years later gave the same results, thus the two scores were averaged across measures.] Later, results of cluster analyses and of multidimensional scaling will be presented.

18. Economy & Productivity [Among 20 non-communist countries are Norway, Switzerland and Iceland which do not belong to EU] Post-communist countries are less affluent but they have been growing much faster – in the last decade - than the rich West, though with ups and downs. They are less productive with lower employment rates, and cheaper alimentation; governmental debt is lower too.

19. Quality of Social Life A s measured by HDI, practices of political democracy, non-corruption practices, educational and social protection expenditures (and their consequences in number of university students and fertility rates), quality of life is much lower in Post-Communist countries.

20. Life and death [Here Russia and Ukraine are included.] In the post-communist countries human life is considerably shorter (starting from higher infant mortality); death takes its toll by higher suicide and homicide rates, and traffic accidents. Russia is an outlier in these statistics.

21. The differences are not everywhere we look Although substantial in some vital aspects of socio-economic and political life, the differences between the two categories are not perennial. Post-communist and other countries do not differ in: Rates of marriages and divorces; Number of prisoners; GINI index; Degree of economic freedom; Government investments; Patent applications; Practicing physicians; Computer skills and internet users; Gender distribution at educational levels; Population parameters; Early school dropouts are lower in post-communist countries .

22. Cluster analysis on socio-economic indices (set 1): Dendrogram of linkages between EU countries Post-communist region is separate from the rest of Europe; but also, geographical-historical sub-regions are reflected by our empirical data Post- Communist West - North South

23. Cluster analysis on socio-economic indices (set #2): Dendrogram of linkages between European countries Another sets of indices renders a similar solution. This time Russia and Ukraine are included but Russia as an ‘outlier’ does not appear on the dendrogram. The two economically most prosperous countries of this cluster: Czechia and Slovenia are out from the post-communist camp. Post- communist South- Central Northern

24. Multi-dimensional scaling on socio-economic indices (set 1): A map of Europe spread on two dimensions P-Comm. <~Comm. F(1,28)=58.06***, η² =.675 Latitude, r(30)=.568** D_2: Growth rate, lowpop_density Longitude, r(30)=.455* Dimension_1: Prosperity & Life Quality

25. Multi-dimensional scaling on socio-economic indices (set 2): A two dimensional map of Europe (with Russia and Ukraine included) P-Comm. < ~Comm. F(1,30)=39.62***, η² =.569 Latitude, r(32)=.699*** D_2: Violent Death (?) Longitude, r(32)=.614*** Dimension_1: Econ.Prosperity & Life Quality

26. East vs West in XXI century:EmpiricalComparisons (Part II)

27. Non-Economic Macro-level indices and comparisons Though introduced by economists and demographers, macro-level indices, are no more a monopoly of these disciplines among social sciences; Obviously, sociologists have their share too (e.g. indices of social structure, mobility, etc); Finally, cross-cultural psychology has moved in the field, studying values, beliefs, practices, attitudes, life-styles, and life-satisfaction world-wide and for comparative purposes.

28. Culture’s Psychological Dimensions: Beginnings For historical purposes, GeertHofstede should be mentioned. His Culture’s Conseguences(1980-2001) was the first large project proposing dimensions of subjective culture; Yet, Hofstede’s data-base is 40 years old, and his dimensions plagued with theoretical confusion and empirical errors, rendering the project unsuitable for mapping the world today.

29. World according to cross-cultural psychologists For East – West (Non vs. Post-Communist) comparisons, I will use data from some of the best known contemporary projects: GLOBE (2004; a 62 country study on cultural values and practices); Schwartz Value Project (an ongoing study with available data from 78 countries); Big Five Personality Project (5 traits measured by NEO-PI-R in 51 countries); 4. Subjective Well-Being (measured by Diener’s SWLS, Veenhoven’s LS and Inglehart’s Survival – Self-expression).

30. Cross-cultural GLOBE project: From 9 dimensions of cultural practices a simpler model of two MD scales Effectiveness Performance orientation Future orientation Uncertainty avoidance Institutional collectivism Traditional Communality Humane orientation Familism Non-Assertiveness Low Gender Equality

31. World according to GLOBE project: Two dimensions grouping 61 countries H D_2: Traditional communality L D_1: Effectiveness High Low

32. Culture level effectiveness: Non–past_Communist Post_communist- Poland F(1,17)=6.81**; η²=.206 West-European (non-pastCommunist) cultures score significantly higher on Effectiveness scale than the post-Communist cultures. That is, West is higher on practices of future planning, nonambivalent rules, achievement standards, and institutional collectivism.

33. Schwartz’s cross-cultural research project on values : Two culture-level dimensions (out of 7 types) (-) Embeddednessvs. Autonomy (+) Embeddedness (low) Autonomy (high) Harmony Egalitarianism Dynamism - Passivity Mastery

34. Mapping the world (77 countries) with two value dimensions from Schwartz’s project D_2: Dynamism Passivity D_1: Embeddedness- Individualautonomy

35. Embeddedness– Individual Autonomy: Non-communist Europe – Post_communist - Poland F(1,26)=20.29***; η²=.438 Kultura Europy zachodniaejcharakteryzuje się znacznie wyższą autonomi jednostki niż świat post-komunistyczny a Polska zajmuje pozycję poniżej średniej dla swego regionu.

36. Citizens’ Personality: Two dimensions of modal personality based on Big Five model in 51 countries Social maturity Agreeableness Conscientiousness Extraversion Creativity Openness to experience Emotional stability

37. Big Five: Two dimensions of citizen’s personality in 51 countries H D_2: Creativity L L H D_1: Social maturity (Agree.+ Conscient.)

38. Citizens’ social maturity: No-Past_Communist– Post_Communist- Poland t(18)=4.47*** Kultura Europy zachodniej charakteryzuje się znacznie wyższą dojrzałością społeczną obywateli niż świat post-komunistyczny a Polska zajmuje pozycję poniżej średniej dla swego regionu.

39. Cluster analysis of European countries on psychological dimensions of cultures. Dendrogram of linkages between 12 countries with complete data Roman - South Post - communist West – North

40. Subjective Well-Being (combined: Diener’sSWLS, Veenhoven’s LS, andInglehart’s post-materialist): ~Comm. Past – Post_commun. - Poland F(1,32)=70.79***;η²=.702 Western European nations highly exceed post-communist countries in SWB. This is a very strong effect, and not fully accountable for by economic factors.

41. Post-CommunismEconomic Prosperity & Life Quality  Culture’s Psychological Dimensions -.821***

42. PROSPERITY & LIFE QUALITY EFFECTIVENESS AUTONOMY POST- COMMUNISM SOCIAL MATURITY SUBJECTIVE WELL - BEING

43. Model fit Chi-square = 6,385 Degrees of freedom = 14 Probability level = ,956 NFI= .982 CFI= 1.00 RMSEA= .000

44. The World Map of Happinessin 177 countries (Happy Planet Index, 2006) SWB: 1 ( green) = highest;2 (blue)= second best; 3 (violet)= moderate;4 (orange) = low; 5(red) = lowest

45. 1. Scandinavia (n=5); 2. Anglo-world (6); 3. Germanic (6, Benelux); 4. LatinEurope (7, Cyprus, Malta); 5. Far Eastern Asia (5, Hong-Kong, Singapore); 6. Europeanpost-communist (21, Caucasian republics); 7. South America (11, onlycontinent); 8. Arab peninsula (8, emirates, ‘oil countries’); 9. Antilles-Karraibeans (14); 10. Central America (8, from Mexicoto Panama); 11. North Africa/Middle-East (11, Israel); 12. Central Asia (8, post USSR republics, Mongolia, Iran); 13. Oceania (6, Pacific islands and archipelagos); 14. South-Eastern Asia (17, from Pakistan to Indochina, and Indonesia); 15. South Africa. (15, south from Congo); 16. Eastern Africa (6, fromDjibuti to Tanzania); 17. Western and Central Africa (26, fromCapo Verte Islandsto Sudan andCongo).

46. Conclusions The findings presented in this talk come from many different sources and from leading international projects. This is the best what social sciences can offer today. My role in the whole enterprise was modest: limited to secondary analysis and interpretation. 2. The results which came from these activities are strong, clear and pessimistic in their message. 20 years after, the post-communist countries trail after the ‘Old EU’. These differences are stable even that considerable leaps have been done in economic growth.

47. Conclusions – contd. Subjective well-being became nowadays one of the crucial indices to worry about. It has been documented beyond reasonable doubt that the post communist countries suffer in this area irrespective of their level of objective prosperity , and indirectly through such consequences of objective life quality as lower autonomy, lower effectiveness, and social maturity. Prospects for hope? – Well nothing is eternal in human history. Bulgaria, Serbia, Poland, Czechia and others had their Golden Ages in the past, perhaps they will return. The problem is that no clear regional strengths have been discovered to become the vehicle of change.