10 Factors Changing Our Media and Our Lives

10 Factors Changing Our Media and Our Lives Gigi Johnson Faculty Director, EMEP 2008 UCLA Anderson MBA ’88 President, Maremel Ventures, Inc. Lecturer, UCLA Anderson October 2008

Power in New Hands/Voices Founded 1994 Mkt Cap: $18 bn (was $37 bn) Founded 1998 Mkt Cap: $117 bn (was $142 bn) Launched PC 2003 Founded 2003 Sold for $580MM Founded 2005 Sold for $1.65 bn Founded 2/04 Microsoft paid $240MM for 1.6% 10/07

Times of Transformation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

More Transformation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Maximize Economic Rent by Slicing Time and Space Rights Location Time Shifting Multiple Use Multiple Media Example Venue None 1 No Theater, sporting event, concerts Venue Yes 1 No Theatrical movies Home None 1 No (Historically) Television Home None 1 No Radio Home Yes Some No Rental Home Video/DVD Home Yes 1 No Digital download services with time limits (Movielink, etc.) Home Yes Yes No DVD; books, newspapers; DVRs (digital video recorders, like Tivo) Any Yes Yes Yes Downloaded Digital Music and Video

Pipe Battles, Round One: Cable/Satellite Faceoff Maremel Ventures Page

Resulting Concentration of U.S. Distribution Pipes ,[object Object],Maremel Ventures Page Comcast Time Warner Charter Cox Cablevision Echostar Dish DirecTV 24.1 13.3 5.4 5.2 3.1 13.8 17.0 = 81.9 million = 72 % of households Source: NCTA 12/07; DirecTV and Echostar 3/08 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

10 Value Shifters ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

#1: Time and Predictability Twists ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

US: 10 Hours Per Day Consuming Media Source: Veronis Suhler Stevenson, MPAA

Share of Time: Primary Currency Source: Veronis Suhler Stevenson, MPAA

U.S. Share of Wallet: Almost $850/person/year Source: Veronis Suhler Stevenson; MPAA

Shifting Seas and Shifting Revenues

Significant Economics of Time and Money: DVD Maremel Ventures Source: MPA

DVD – 2005 – “Suddenly In Transition” ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

DVDs 2007 into 2008 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Maremel Ventures

Viewing Instead To… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Cable Channel Expansion Maremel Ventures Page Source: Screen Digest, FCC, NCTA 1994: Launch of Digital Satellite 1997: Launch of Digital Cable

… but we’re watching 15-16? Maremel Ventures Page

..and in few pockets…fewer hands facing advertisers… Maremel Ventures Page Turner ABC/ESPN MTV Networks Discovery Fox NBC Scripps 10 10 19 13 30 6 5 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Maremel Ventures Page SOURCE: NIELSEN MEDIA RESEARCH, FEB. EACH YEAR

TV Embedded Messaging to Keep Viewer Attention

#2: Scarcity & Discovery Challenges ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

US Regulation: Opening Choice; Transferring Wealth ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Recent Regulatory Drivers ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

“ Wired” 2004 Concept – The Long Tail

Explosion of Consumer Options ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

One example: migration from traditional broadcast radio Maremel Ventures

Another Example: Business “News” vs Instant Data ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Issues down the Tail ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Other Long-Tail Models? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Aggregation Gatekeepers ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Aggregation Relationships ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Sources: Companies’ Info as of 12/07 or 3/08

Alliances Around Aggregators Winter 2008

#3: Brands: Major Cues for Consumers; Risk Mitigators ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Brands => Increasing Importance In A Fragmented World ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

#4: Capital > Opportunities? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Changing Risk Profiles ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Gartner’s Hype Cycle ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Gartner’s Technology Life Cycle Models

What about Old businesses…Flow to Films…What Do They Know? Source: HLHZ 5/07

Other “Shoes” to Drop ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Maremel Ventures

#5: Consumers as Prince-makers ,[object Object]

Web 2.0: Connecting Consumers to Each Other ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Massively Multiplayer Games ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],MUSH’s MUD’s

Avatars for Kids? Stardoll 1.1MM uniques Club Penguin – 6mm monthly uniques Doppelganger’s The Lounge Gaia Online 2MM uniques/month 1MM posts/day Habbo Hotel – 200K U/M Webkinz -- 6mm uniques/month

Digital Evangelism into Old Media

UGC – Open Source for Content Like what? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Blogs, RSS, Podcasting -- “Journalism”? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Web 3.0 – Presence and Connecting as Content ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Connections as Content ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Universal McCann 4/08 Findings ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source of this and next pages: Universal McCann Next Thing Now Study, 4/08

Social Network Environment 4/07 U.S. Maremel Ventures

Global Differences in Influence

Yet We Aren’t All in the Pool Source: Pew Internet Study May 2007

Video: March ‘08 ComScore Snapshot ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

And Selling (To) Different Users

#6: Data = $$ Behavioral Targeting, SEO, Search ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

One-way Media – Cable 1980s-1990s Satellite Headend TV(s) & analog cable box Viewer(s) Project Canoe

Amazon – Knowing You ,[object Object],Hello, G. Johnson. We have recommendations for you. (If you're not G. Johnson, click here .)

Portals – Knowing You Even Better ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Buying Your Interests ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Currently, Yahoo! has relationships with the following ad networks (click to visit their site):

Buying Your Information ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

#7: Advertising Increasing Audience Segmentation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Search as Major Ad Tool ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Sources: Pew 12/05; Nielsen Net Ratings, 2/06, 3/07, 4/08; Comscore 8/08

Video Search – Meta Problem ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Re-Aggregating Eyeballs ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Platform A/AOL Family Quigo 11/07 Tacoda 7/07 Third Screen Media 5/07 Advertising.com 6/04 Lightningcast 5/06 AdTech 5/07 Relegence 11/06 Userplane 8/06 Truveo 12/05 Weblogs 10/05 Xdrive 8/05 Wildseed, Ltd 8/05

CRM & BT ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

#8: Format and Gear Wars ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Past Successful Format Adoptions Sources: Rogers (1995), Steinberg (1980) The DVD is the fastest adopted consumer technology in the history of mankind. Faster than TV’s, cell phones, VCR’s, and even the internet! Technology Introduction Take off (20%) Saturation (80%) B&W TV 1928 1950 1959 Color TV 1951 1964 1981 HDTV 1993 2008??? ??? AM Radio 1912 1920 1943 FM Radio 1934 1940 1979 VCR 1964 1980 2000 DVD 1997 1998 2006

With Each Birth, Standards Battles: Control vs Open Source ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Digital Momentum from Standards ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Who is Impacted?

The Gear Wars – Selling New Gear to Do What?

#8: Growing Internet Family Source: Universal McCann NextThingNow 4/08

Global Shift in Participation Source: Universal McCann NextThingNow 4/08

UK Media: How to Monetize This?

Medium for Social Change Source: NYT, 5/29/07

And China. Period. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

#10: Battle for the Digital Home ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Now “Quadruple Play”? Pipes, Gardens? Video Voice Mobile Data/Web

10 Factors Changing Our Media and Our Lives

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10 Factors Changing Our Media and Our Lives