Prior to the GFC, Australia was experiencing its most rapid population growth since 1972. This presentation suggests that the GFC will lead to a reduction in population growth in Australia due to a fall in both fertility and international migration. However, it also argues that regardless of global and Australian economic trends there are fundamental demographic factors which necessitate the maintenance of significant population growth into the future. Some of the implications of these trends for business are explored.

5. “ Over the next couple of decades nothing will impact OECD economies more profoundly than demographic trends and, chief among them, ageing” Jean-Philippe Cotis Chief Economist, OECD March 2005

10. Higher Degree Qualification by Australia- and Overseas-Born, 1981-2006 Source: 1981 to 2001 Census One Percent files, ABS 2006 Census

12. Australia: Migration Program Outcomes by Stream, 1989-90 to 2008-09 Source: DIAC Population Flows: Immigration Aspects , various issues

15. Projections of the Population of Australia Source: ABS Estimated Resident Population data and Projections 2008

16. Contemporary Population Growth Rates (% pa) Source: ESCAP 2008; Population Reference Bureau 2007 and 2008; ABS 2008

18. Australia: Total Population Growth Showing the Natural Increase and Net Migration Components, 1901-2008 Source: ABS 1986 and ABS Australian Demographic Statistics , various issues

20. Australia: Expectation of Life at Age 50, 1901-1910, 1970-1972 and 2007 Source: ABS Year Males Females 1901-1910 21.2 23.7 1970-1972 23.0 28.3 2007 31.4 35.2

21. Persons Aged 65 Years and Over with Disabilities Source: ABS 2005

22. Percent of Australians Overweight or Obese by Age and Sex, 2004 Source: ABS 2008

23. Fertility Australia: Total Fertility Rate, 1901 to 2007 Source: CBCS Demography and ABS Births Australia , various issues

24. International Total Fertility Rates, 2005-10 Source: ABS 2008 and United Nations 2009

25. Total Fertility Rate (a) Source: ABS 2007, Australian Social Trends

28. Permanent Additions Source: ABS 2007, Australian Social Trends ; DIAC 2008

29. Permanent Additions by Eligibility Category Source: ABS 2007, Australian Social Trends ; DIAC 2008

31. Australia: Permanent Arrivals and Departures, 1959-60 to 2007-08 Source: DIMIA Australian Immigration: Consolidated Statistics and DIAC Immigration Update , various issues

32. Australia: 457s Present, Asia-born and Other, 1998 to 2008 Source: Khoo et al 2009 and DIAC Immigration Update, various issues

33. Overseas Students in Australian Universities, 1983-2007 Source: DEST, Students: Selected Higher Education Statistics, various issues

34. South Australia: Age-Sex Structure, 2001 and 2006 Source: ABS 2006 Census Time Series Profile

36. Australia: Age-Sex Structure of the Population, June 2006 Source: ABS Estimated Resident Population data Baby Boomers

37. Wittert, 2006

38. Baby Boomers 2006 Source: ABS

40. Structural Ageing: Australia: Change by Age: 2006 – 2011; 2031 (Series B) Source: ABS 2008 Projections

41. Labour Force Age Groups and Dependency Rates Source: World Bank, 2006

43. Changing Population Distribution Shifts in the Australian Proportion Centroid, 1911-2006 Source: Australian Censuses, ABS 2003, 2004 and 2007

45. Australia: Distribution of Population Between States and Territories, Actual 1881-2006 and Projected 2051 Source: Rowland 1982, 25; ABS 2005 and 2007

46. Australia: Changing Distribution of the Population Between Urban and Rural Sectors, 1921 to 2006 Source: Australian Censuses, 1921-2006

47. Australia: Population Change in Country Towns, 2001-2006 Source: Australian Censuses of 2001 and 2006

51. At times of economic downturn there is a tendency for countries to adopt protectionist policies both with respect to trade and migration. While the response is understandable, the global experience has not been that making substantial reductions in migration has not had the desired consequences for improving the economic prospects for local workers.

53. Need to Recognise Long Term Structural Causes of Migration – Increasing global differentials in economy and demography and the forces of globalisation

55. Average Household Net Worth by Age of the Household reference Person, 1994-2007, Australia Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Newsletters - Age Matters - Issue Number 1, December 2002 and ABS 2007, p.37

56. Australia: Changes in Participation Rates of the Older Population in the Workforce, 1970-2009 Source: ABS Labour Force Surveys Percent Participation May 1970 June 1999 May 2009 Age Group Males Females Males Females Males Females 55-59 91.5 28.7 72.9 44.1 77.7 63.2 60-64 79.2 14.9 46.9 17.6 58.7 42.7 65+ 23.2 3.6 9.7 3.2 14.7 5.6

57. Australia: Persons with No Superannuation Coverage, 2007 Source: ABS 2009, 18

58. Australia: Persons with Superannuation in the Accumulation Phase, Total Superannuation Balance, 2007 Source: ABS 2009a, 19