This document summarizes research on the relationship between climate change and travel behavior. The researchers analyzed mobility patterns from a Dutch travel survey under current and projected 2050 climate conditions. They found that mode choices and destination choices varied based on geographical context, personal background like income and age, and season. Climate change is expected to decrease car use and increase public transit, walking and cycling in denser urban areas but have less impact in rural areas. The researchers conclude more analysis is needed on how weather influences travel decisions based on individual situational and subjective factors.
2. Contents
• Background
• Methodology
• Climate
change
and
mode
choices
• Climate
change
and
des4na4on
choices
• Conclusions
3. • Loca4on
of
studies
• Overemphasis
on
weather
extremes
• Contradic4ng
results
• Lack
of
aFen4on
to
personal
backgrounds
• Lack
of
aFen4on
to
geographical
contexts
• Böcker,
Dijst
&
Prillwitz
(forthcoming)
“Changing
recurring
clima4c
condi4ons
and
travel
behaviour:
the
role
of
personal
backgrounds
and
geographical
contexts”
Background
4. Methodology
• Selec4on
of
seasons
within
the
last
decade
represen4ng
current
climate
• Selec4on
of
seasons
within
the
last
decade
represen4ng
the
2050
projected
climate
• Analyzing
mobility
paFerns
for
different
popula4on
categories
and
geographical
contexts
• Dutch
Na4onal
Travel
Survey
Randstad
area
6. Climate
change
and
mode
choices
winter
spring
summer
autumn
winter
spring
summer
autumn
Current
climate
Future
climate
Mode
Shares
(stacked)
100%
0%
7. Climate
change
and
mode
choices
-‐10,0
-‐5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0
Winter
Spring
Summer
Autumn
-‐10,0
-‐5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0
Winter
Spring
Summer
Autumn
>3000 addresses/km2
<700 addresses/km2
Increase/decrease
in
mode
shares
for
2050
compared
to
current
Address density
8. Climate
change
and
mode
choices
-‐10,0
-‐5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0
Winter
Spring
Summer
Autumn
-‐10,0
-‐5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0
Winter
Spring
Summer
Autumn
>3000 addresses/km2
<700 addresses/km2
Address density
Increase/decrease
in
mode
shares
for
2050
compared
to
current
9. Climate
change
and
mode
choices
€15000-€30000
-‐10,0
-‐5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0
Winter
Spring
Summer
Autumn
-‐10,0
-‐5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0
Winter
Spring
Summer
Autumn
-‐10,0
-‐5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0
Winter
Spring
Summer
Autumn
<€15000
>€30000
Household income
10. Climate
change
and
mode
choices
€15000-€30000
-‐10,0
-‐5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0
Winter
Spring
Summer
Autumn
-‐10,0
-‐5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0
Winter
Spring
Summer
Autumn
-‐10,0
-‐5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0
Winter
Spring
Summer
Autumn
<€15000
>€30000
Household income
11. Climate
change
and
mode
choices
30-64 years old
18-29 years old
over 65 years old
-‐10,0
-‐5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0
Winter
Spring
Summer
Autumn
-‐10,0
-‐5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0
Winter
Spring
Summer
Autumn
-‐10,0
-‐5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0
Winter
Spring
Summer
Autumn
Age
12. Climate
change
and
mode
choices
30-64 years old
18-29 years old
over 65 years old
-‐10,0
-‐5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0
Winter
Spring
Summer
Autumn
-‐10,0
-‐5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0
Winter
Spring
Summer
Autumn
-‐10,0
-‐5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0
Winter
Spring
Summer
Autumn
Age
13. Climate
change
and
mode
choices
men
women
Gender
-‐10,0
-‐5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0
Winter
Spring
Summer
Autumn
-‐10,0
-‐5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0
Winter
Spring
Summer
Autumn
14. Climate
change
and
mode
choices
men
women
Gender
-‐10,0
-‐5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0
Winter
Spring
Summer
Autumn
-‐10,0
-‐5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0
Winter
Spring
Summer
Autumn
15. Climate
change
and
des4na4ons
errands
<30min
work/
study
social
visit
shopping
>30min
picking
up
persons
sports
cultural
&
other
touring/
walking
-‐40
-‐30
-‐20
-‐10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
winter
spring
summer
autumn
Percentual
changes
in
number
of
trips
per
person
for
different
des4na4on
ac4vi4es
(for
2050
as
compared
to
current)
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
16. Conclusion
• Insight
into
the
rela4onship
between
(changing)
recurring
weather
condi4ons
and
travel
paFerns
• Importance
of
geographical
contexts
and
personal
backgrounds
• Applica4on
of
knowledge
in
planning
support
• Next:
mul4variate
analysis
• Next:
Ac4vity
diaries
-‐situa4onal
approach
-‐subjec4ve
interpreta4ons
of
weather
-‐different
residen4al
environments
17. Thank
you!
Contact
Website/blog
(in
Dutch)
l.bocker@geo.uu.nl
hFp://cesar.nvdv.eu