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Climate	
  
Mobility	
  
Lars	
  Böcker 	
  	
  	
  	
  Mar4n	
  Dijst 	
   	
  Jan	
  Prillwitz	
  
&	
  
Contents	
  
•  Background	
  
•  Methodology	
  
•  Climate	
  change	
  and	
  mode	
  choices	
  
•  Climate	
  change	
  and	
  des4na4on	
  choices	
  
•  Conclusions	
  
•  Loca4on	
  of	
  studies	
  
•  Overemphasis	
  on	
  weather	
  extremes	
  
•  Contradic4ng	
  results	
  
•  Lack	
  of	
  aFen4on	
  to	
  personal	
  backgrounds	
  
•  Lack	
  of	
  aFen4on	
  to	
  geographical	
  contexts	
  
•  Böcker,	
  Dijst	
  &	
  Prillwitz	
  (forthcoming)	
  “Changing	
  	
  
recurring	
  clima4c	
  condi4ons	
  and	
  travel	
  behaviour:	
  the	
  
role	
  of	
  personal	
  backgrounds	
  and	
  geographical	
  contexts”
Background	
  
Methodology	
  
•  Selec4on	
  of	
  seasons	
  within	
  the	
  last	
  decade	
  
represen4ng	
  current	
  climate	
  
•  Selec4on	
  of	
  seasons	
  within	
  the	
  last	
  decade	
  
represen4ng	
  the	
  2050	
  projected	
  climate	
  
•  Analyzing	
  mobility	
  paFerns	
  for	
  different	
  popula4on	
  
categories	
  and	
  geographical	
  contexts	
  
•  Dutch	
  Na4onal	
  Travel	
  Survey	
   	
   	
   	
   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
Randstad	
  area	
  
Methodology	
  
Spring	
  
-­‐Warmer	
  
-­‐Slightly	
  weFer	
  
	
  
Summer	
  
-­‐HoFer	
  
-­‐Longer	
  dry	
  periods	
  
-­‐Heavier	
  rain	
  showers	
  
Autumn	
  
-­‐Warmer	
  
Winter	
  
-­‐Milder	
  
-­‐Overall	
  weFer	
  
-­‐Heavier	
  precipita4on	
  
Climate	
  change	
  and	
  mode	
  choices	
  
winter	
   spring	
   summer	
   autumn	
   winter	
   spring	
   summer	
   autumn	
  
Current	
  climate	
   Future	
  climate	
  
Mode	
  	
  
Shares	
  
(stacked)	
  
100%	
  
0%	
  
Climate	
  change	
  and	
  mode	
  choices	
  
-­‐10,0	
  
-­‐5,0	
  
0,0	
  
5,0	
  
10,0	
  
Winter	
   Spring	
   Summer	
  Autumn	
  
-­‐10,0	
  
-­‐5,0	
  
0,0	
  
5,0	
  
10,0	
  
Winter	
   Spring	
   Summer	
  Autumn	
  
>3000 addresses/km2	
  <700 addresses/km2	
  
Increase/decrease	
  in	
  
mode	
  shares	
  for	
  2050	
  
compared	
  to	
  current	
  
Address density	
  
Climate	
  change	
  and	
  mode	
  choices	
  
-­‐10,0	
  
-­‐5,0	
  
0,0	
  
5,0	
  
10,0	
  
Winter	
   Spring	
   Summer	
  Autumn	
  
-­‐10,0	
  
-­‐5,0	
  
0,0	
  
5,0	
  
10,0	
  
Winter	
   Spring	
   Summer	
  Autumn	
  
>3000 addresses/km2	
  <700 addresses/km2	
  
Address density	
  
Increase/decrease	
  in	
  
mode	
  shares	
  for	
  2050	
  
compared	
  to	
  current	
  
Climate	
  change	
  and	
  mode	
  choices	
  
€15000-€30000	
  
-­‐10,0	
  
-­‐5,0	
  
0,0	
  
5,0	
  
10,0	
  
Winter	
   Spring	
   Summer	
  Autumn	
  
-­‐10,0	
  
-­‐5,0	
  
0,0	
  
5,0	
  
10,0	
  
Winter	
   Spring	
   Summer	
  Autumn	
  
-­‐10,0	
  
-­‐5,0	
  
0,0	
  
5,0	
  
10,0	
  
Winter	
   Spring	
   Summer	
  Autumn	
  
<€15000	
   >€30000	
  
Household income	
  
Climate	
  change	
  and	
  mode	
  choices	
  
€15000-€30000	
  
-­‐10,0	
  
-­‐5,0	
  
0,0	
  
5,0	
  
10,0	
  
Winter	
   Spring	
   Summer	
  Autumn	
  
-­‐10,0	
  
-­‐5,0	
  
0,0	
  
5,0	
  
10,0	
  
Winter	
   Spring	
   Summer	
  Autumn	
  
-­‐10,0	
  
-­‐5,0	
  
0,0	
  
5,0	
  
10,0	
  
Winter	
   Spring	
   Summer	
  Autumn	
  
<€15000	
   >€30000	
  
Household income	
  
Climate	
  change	
  and	
  mode	
  choices	
  
30-64 years old	
  18-29 years old	
   over 65 years old	
  
-­‐10,0	
  
-­‐5,0	
  
0,0	
  
5,0	
  
10,0	
  
Winter	
   Spring	
   Summer	
  Autumn	
  
-­‐10,0	
  
-­‐5,0	
  
0,0	
  
5,0	
  
10,0	
  
Winter	
   Spring	
   Summer	
  Autumn	
  
-­‐10,0	
  
-­‐5,0	
  
0,0	
  
5,0	
  
10,0	
  
Winter	
   Spring	
   Summer	
  Autumn	
  
Age	
  
Climate	
  change	
  and	
  mode	
  choices	
  
30-64 years old	
  18-29 years old	
   over 65 years old	
  
-­‐10,0	
  
-­‐5,0	
  
0,0	
  
5,0	
  
10,0	
  
Winter	
   Spring	
   Summer	
  Autumn	
  
-­‐10,0	
  
-­‐5,0	
  
0,0	
  
5,0	
  
10,0	
  
Winter	
   Spring	
   Summer	
  Autumn	
  
-­‐10,0	
  
-­‐5,0	
  
0,0	
  
5,0	
  
10,0	
  
Winter	
   Spring	
   Summer	
  Autumn	
  
Age	
  
Climate	
  change	
  and	
  mode	
  choices	
  
men	
   women	
  
Gender	
  
-­‐10,0	
  
-­‐5,0	
  
0,0	
  
5,0	
  
10,0	
  
Winter	
   Spring	
   Summer	
  Autumn	
  
-­‐10,0	
  
-­‐5,0	
  
0,0	
  
5,0	
  
10,0	
  
Winter	
   Spring	
   Summer	
  Autumn	
  
Climate	
  change	
  and	
  mode	
  choices	
  
men	
   women	
  
Gender	
  
-­‐10,0	
  
-­‐5,0	
  
0,0	
  
5,0	
  
10,0	
  
Winter	
   Spring	
   Summer	
  Autumn	
  
-­‐10,0	
  
-­‐5,0	
  
0,0	
  
5,0	
  
10,0	
  
Winter	
   Spring	
   Summer	
  Autumn	
  
Climate	
  change	
  and	
  des4na4ons	
  
errands	
  
<30min	
  
work/	
  
study	
  
social	
  
visit	
  
	
  
shopping	
  
>30min	
  	
  
picking	
  up	
  
persons	
  
sports	
   cultural	
  
&	
  other	
  
touring/	
  
walking	
  
	
  
-­‐40	
  
-­‐30	
  
-­‐20	
  
-­‐10	
  
0	
  
10	
  
20	
  
30	
  
40	
  
50	
  
60	
  
winter	
  
spring	
  
summer	
  
autumn	
  
Percentual	
  changes	
  in	
  number	
  of	
  trips	
  per	
  person	
  for	
  different	
  
des4na4on	
  ac4vi4es	
  (for	
  2050	
  as	
  compared	
  to	
  current)	
  
%	
  
%	
  
%	
  
%	
  
%	
  
%	
  
%	
  
%	
  
Conclusion	
  
•  Insight	
  into	
  the	
  rela4onship	
  between	
  (changing)	
  
recurring	
  weather	
  condi4ons	
  and	
  travel	
  paFerns	
  
•  Importance	
  of	
  geographical	
  contexts	
  and	
  personal	
  
backgrounds	
  
•  Applica4on	
  of	
  knowledge	
  in	
  planning	
  support	
  
•  Next:	
  mul4variate	
  analysis	
  
•  Next:	
  Ac4vity	
  diaries	
  	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   	
   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
-­‐situa4onal	
  approach 	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   	
   	
   	
  	
  	
  	
  
-­‐subjec4ve	
  interpreta4ons	
  of	
  weather	
   	
   	
   	
   	
  	
  	
  	
  
-­‐different	
  residen4al	
  environments	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
Thank	
  you!	
  
Contact 	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   	
  Website/blog	
  (in	
  Dutch)	
  
l.bocker@geo.uu.nl 	
   	
  hFp://cesar.nvdv.eu	
  

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Aag 2011 seattle

  • 1. Climate   Mobility   Lars  Böcker        Mar4n  Dijst    Jan  Prillwitz   &  
  • 2. Contents   •  Background   •  Methodology   •  Climate  change  and  mode  choices   •  Climate  change  and  des4na4on  choices   •  Conclusions  
  • 3. •  Loca4on  of  studies   •  Overemphasis  on  weather  extremes   •  Contradic4ng  results   •  Lack  of  aFen4on  to  personal  backgrounds   •  Lack  of  aFen4on  to  geographical  contexts   •  Böcker,  Dijst  &  Prillwitz  (forthcoming)  “Changing     recurring  clima4c  condi4ons  and  travel  behaviour:  the   role  of  personal  backgrounds  and  geographical  contexts” Background  
  • 4. Methodology   •  Selec4on  of  seasons  within  the  last  decade   represen4ng  current  climate   •  Selec4on  of  seasons  within  the  last  decade   represen4ng  the  2050  projected  climate   •  Analyzing  mobility  paFerns  for  different  popula4on   categories  and  geographical  contexts   •  Dutch  Na4onal  Travel  Survey                                     Randstad  area  
  • 5. Methodology   Spring   -­‐Warmer   -­‐Slightly  weFer     Summer   -­‐HoFer   -­‐Longer  dry  periods   -­‐Heavier  rain  showers   Autumn   -­‐Warmer   Winter   -­‐Milder   -­‐Overall  weFer   -­‐Heavier  precipita4on  
  • 6. Climate  change  and  mode  choices   winter   spring   summer   autumn   winter   spring   summer   autumn   Current  climate   Future  climate   Mode     Shares   (stacked)   100%   0%  
  • 7. Climate  change  and  mode  choices   -­‐10,0   -­‐5,0   0,0   5,0   10,0   Winter   Spring   Summer  Autumn   -­‐10,0   -­‐5,0   0,0   5,0   10,0   Winter   Spring   Summer  Autumn   >3000 addresses/km2  <700 addresses/km2   Increase/decrease  in   mode  shares  for  2050   compared  to  current   Address density  
  • 8. Climate  change  and  mode  choices   -­‐10,0   -­‐5,0   0,0   5,0   10,0   Winter   Spring   Summer  Autumn   -­‐10,0   -­‐5,0   0,0   5,0   10,0   Winter   Spring   Summer  Autumn   >3000 addresses/km2  <700 addresses/km2   Address density   Increase/decrease  in   mode  shares  for  2050   compared  to  current  
  • 9. Climate  change  and  mode  choices   €15000-€30000   -­‐10,0   -­‐5,0   0,0   5,0   10,0   Winter   Spring   Summer  Autumn   -­‐10,0   -­‐5,0   0,0   5,0   10,0   Winter   Spring   Summer  Autumn   -­‐10,0   -­‐5,0   0,0   5,0   10,0   Winter   Spring   Summer  Autumn   <€15000   >€30000   Household income  
  • 10. Climate  change  and  mode  choices   €15000-€30000   -­‐10,0   -­‐5,0   0,0   5,0   10,0   Winter   Spring   Summer  Autumn   -­‐10,0   -­‐5,0   0,0   5,0   10,0   Winter   Spring   Summer  Autumn   -­‐10,0   -­‐5,0   0,0   5,0   10,0   Winter   Spring   Summer  Autumn   <€15000   >€30000   Household income  
  • 11. Climate  change  and  mode  choices   30-64 years old  18-29 years old   over 65 years old   -­‐10,0   -­‐5,0   0,0   5,0   10,0   Winter   Spring   Summer  Autumn   -­‐10,0   -­‐5,0   0,0   5,0   10,0   Winter   Spring   Summer  Autumn   -­‐10,0   -­‐5,0   0,0   5,0   10,0   Winter   Spring   Summer  Autumn   Age  
  • 12. Climate  change  and  mode  choices   30-64 years old  18-29 years old   over 65 years old   -­‐10,0   -­‐5,0   0,0   5,0   10,0   Winter   Spring   Summer  Autumn   -­‐10,0   -­‐5,0   0,0   5,0   10,0   Winter   Spring   Summer  Autumn   -­‐10,0   -­‐5,0   0,0   5,0   10,0   Winter   Spring   Summer  Autumn   Age  
  • 13. Climate  change  and  mode  choices   men   women   Gender   -­‐10,0   -­‐5,0   0,0   5,0   10,0   Winter   Spring   Summer  Autumn   -­‐10,0   -­‐5,0   0,0   5,0   10,0   Winter   Spring   Summer  Autumn  
  • 14. Climate  change  and  mode  choices   men   women   Gender   -­‐10,0   -­‐5,0   0,0   5,0   10,0   Winter   Spring   Summer  Autumn   -­‐10,0   -­‐5,0   0,0   5,0   10,0   Winter   Spring   Summer  Autumn  
  • 15. Climate  change  and  des4na4ons   errands   <30min   work/   study   social   visit     shopping   >30min     picking  up   persons   sports   cultural   &  other   touring/   walking     -­‐40   -­‐30   -­‐20   -­‐10   0   10   20   30   40   50   60   winter   spring   summer   autumn   Percentual  changes  in  number  of  trips  per  person  for  different   des4na4on  ac4vi4es  (for  2050  as  compared  to  current)   %   %   %   %   %   %   %   %  
  • 16. Conclusion   •  Insight  into  the  rela4onship  between  (changing)   recurring  weather  condi4ons  and  travel  paFerns   •  Importance  of  geographical  contexts  and  personal   backgrounds   •  Applica4on  of  knowledge  in  planning  support   •  Next:  mul4variate  analysis   •  Next:  Ac4vity  diaries                                                   -­‐situa4onal  approach                                       -­‐subjec4ve  interpreta4ons  of  weather                 -­‐different  residen4al  environments                    
  • 17. Thank  you!   Contact            Website/blog  (in  Dutch)   l.bocker@geo.uu.nl    hFp://cesar.nvdv.eu