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From Climate to Fishers: An Integrated Approach

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Miguel Bernal
Miguel Bernal

This presentation show the framework for various end-to-end models being applied in various marine pelagic ecosystems.

Education
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Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Small Pelagic From Climate to Fish to Fishers: an Fish SPF characteristics integrated approach to small pelagic Hypothesis Management fisheries E2E models what is end2end Hydrodynamic models food web Miguel Bernal Fleet Summary ˜ Instituto Espanol de Oceanograf´a (IEO) ı Some results ` Institut de Ciencies del Mar (CSIC) Final remarks Additional Info ` Sete, 28 April 2011 Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
Contributors & related projects Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Small Pelagic Enrique Curchitser Fish CAMEO: Mechanisms for low-freq. Rutgers University SPF characteristics variability of forage fish: A comparative Hypothesis Kenny A. Rose Management Louisiana State University analysis of N. Pacific sardine systems E2E models http://alnilam.marine.rutgers.edu/wikiCAMEO what is end2end Jerome Fletcher University of California – Hydrodynamic models Santa Cruz REPROdUCE:understanding food web REproductive PROcesses Using Fleet Kate Hedstrom Summary Arctic Region Coupled biophysical models of the Some results Supercomputing Center pelagic Ecosystem Final Manuel Ruiz-Villarreal http://www.pelagic-ecosystems.net/REPROdUCE remarks ˜ Instituto Espanol de Additional Oceanograf´aı Info Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
Outline of the talk Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Small Pelagic 1 Introduction: what links climate and fish? Fish SPF characteristics Hypothesis Management 2 The special case of Small Pelagic Fish E2E models what is end2end Hydrodynamic models 3 End-to-end models food web Fleet Summary Some results 4 Some results Final remarks Additional 5 Final remarks Info Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
Outline of the talk Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Small Pelagic Fish 1 Introduction: what links climate and fish? SPF characteristics Hypothesis What links climate to fish? Management Ocean dynamics and climate E2E models what is end2end Finding common ground Hydrodynamic models food web Fleet Summary 2 The special case of Small Pelagic Fish Some results Final 3 End-to-end models remarks Additional Info Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
What links climate to fish? Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Fisheries science basics Small Pelagic Fish SPF characteristics Recruitment Hypothesis Management = new fish E2E models Recruits what is end2end Hydrodynamic + mortality models food web → stock Fleet Summary Some results Final remarks Additional Info Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
What links climate to fish? Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common ground What control recruitment? Small Pelagic Fish SPF characteristics Internal control on Hypothesis Management recruitment E2E models Biomass and what is end2end Hydrodynamic models structure of the stock food web Fleet controls next Summary generation Ricker, 1954 Some results Very noisy but still a Final remarks basis for stock Additional Info management Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
What links climate to fish? Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean What control recruitment? Finding common ground External control on stock Small Pelagic Fish and recruitment SPF characteristics Hypothesis Predation (top-down Management E2E models control) what is end2end Hydrodynamic Competition models food web (sideways control) Fleet Summary Food availability Some results (bottom-up control) Final remarks Ocean dynamics Additional Info Adapted from Cury et al., 2001 Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
What links climate to fish? Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean What control recruitment? Finding common ground External control on stock Small Pelagic Fish and recruitment SPF characteristics Hypothesis Predation (top-down Management E2E models control) what is end2end Hydrodynamic Competition models food web (sideways control) Fleet Summary Food availability Some results (bottom-up control) Final remarks Ocean dynamics Additional Info Adapted from Cury et al., 2001 Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
What links climate to fish? Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean What control recruitment? Finding common ground External control on stock Small Pelagic Fish and recruitment SPF characteristics Hypothesis Predation (top-down Management E2E models control) what is end2end Hydrodynamic Competition models food web (sideways control) Fleet Summary Food availability Some results (bottom-up control) Final remarks Ocean dynamics Additional Info Adapted from Cury et al., 2001 Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
What links climate to fish? Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean What control recruitment? Finding common ground External control on stock Small Pelagic Fish and recruitment SPF characteristics Hypothesis Predation (top-down Management E2E models control) what is end2end Hydrodynamic Competition models food web (sideways control) Fleet Summary Food availability Some results (bottom-up control) Final remarks Ocean dynamics Additional Info Adapted from Cury et al., 2001 Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
Ocean dynamics Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common Climate and Ocean dynamics ground Small Pelagic Community Fish SPF characteristics Climate System Hypothesis Management Models try to E2E models incorporate main what is end2end Hydrodynamic Earth processes models food web affecting climate Fleet Summary Ocean - Some results atmosphere Final remarks coupling is crucial Additional Info NCAR CCSM forcing Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
Finding common ground: downscaling and upscaling Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Small Pelagic Fish SPF characteristics Hypothesis Management E2E models what is end2end Hydrodynamic models food web Fleet Summary Some results Final remarks Additional Dickey,  1991,  2003   Info Provided by E. Curchitser Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
Outline of the talk Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Small Pelagic Fish 1 Introduction: what links climate and fish? SPF characteristics Hypothesis Management 2 The special case of Small Pelagic Fish E2E models what is end2end SPF characteristics Hydrodynamic models food web Hypothesis Fleet Summary Management considerations Some results Final 3 End-to-end models remarks Additional Info Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
The special case of Small Pelagic Fish Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Challenges Finding common ground Situated in productive Small Pelagic Fish ecosystems SPF characteristics Hypothesis Large stocks but Management highly variable E2E models what is end2end biomass Hydrodynamic models food web Exploited by large Fleet Summary fleets, fisheries Global SST image Some results collapses examples Final remarks Cycles and Additional teleconections Info (bottom up + regimes) Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
The special case of Small Pelagic Fish Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Challenges Finding common ground Situated in productive Small Pelagic Fish ecosystems SPF characteristics Hypothesis Large stocks but Management highly variable E2E models what is end2end biomass Hydrodynamic models food web Exploited by large Fleet Summary fleets, fisheries Some results collapses examples Final remarks Cycles and Baumgartner et al., 1992 Additional teleconections Info (bottom up + regimes) Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
The special case of Small Pelagic Fish Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Challenges Finding common ground Situated in productive Small Pelagic Fish ecosystems SPF characteristics Hypothesis Large stocks but Management highly variable E2E models what is end2end biomass Hydrodynamic models food web Exploited by large Fleet Summary fleets, fisheries Some results collapses examples Final remarks Cycles and Baumgartner et al., 1992 Additional teleconections Info (bottom up + regimes) Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
The special case of Small Pelagic Fish Introduction Climate & Fish Challenges Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Situated in productive Small Pelagic ecosystems Fish SPF characteristics Hypothesis Large stocks but Management highly variable E2E models what is end2end biomass Hydrodynamic models food web Exploited by large Fleet Summary fleets, fisheries Some results collapses examples Final Cycles and remarks Additional teleconections Info (bottom up + regimes) Schwartzlose et al., 1999 Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
The special case of Small Pelagic Fish Introduction Climate & Fish Challenges Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Situated in productive Small Pelagic ecosystems Fish SPF characteristics Hypothesis Large stocks but Management highly variable E2E models what is end2end biomass Hydrodynamic models food web Exploited by large Fleet Summary fleets, fisheries Some results collapses examples Final Climate and human remarks Additional interactions affect Info dynamics Schwartzlose et al., 1999 Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
Hypothesis on mechanism that explain small pelagic fish fluctuations Introduction Hypothesis References Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Combined advection and trophody- Alheit and Niquen (2004); Finding common ground namic hypothesis Alheit and Bakun (2009) Bakun and Cury (1999); Small Pelagic Fish Loop-hole, school trap and Active Bakun and Broad (2003); SPF characteristics opportunist hypothesis Bakun (2009) Hypothesis Management Intra-guild predation hypothesis Irigoien and de Roos (2009) E2E models Fishing hypothesis Smith et al. (2009) what is end2end MacCall (2009) Hydrodynamic models Boundary current flow hypothesis food web Fleet Trophic partitioning and habitat hy- Rykazcewski and Checkley Summary pothesis (2008) Some results Takasuka et al. (2007); Final Temperature-based hypothesis Takasuka et al. (2008a); remarks Takasuka et al. (2008b) Additional Kuroshio Extension Oscillation hy- Takahashi et al. (2009) Info pothesis Van der Lingen et al. (2006); Trophic dissimilarity hypothesis van der lingen et al. (2009) Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
Hypothesis on mechanism that explain small pelagic fish fluctuations Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Small Pelagic Fish SPF characteristics Hypothesis Management E2E models what is end2end Hydrodynamic models food web Fleet Summary Some results Final remarks Additional Info van der Lingen et al., 2009 Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
Hypothesis on mechanism that explain small pelagic fish fluctuations Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Small Pelagic Fish SPF characteristics Hypothesis Management E2E models what is end2end Hydrodynamic models food web Fleet Summary Some results Final remarks Additional Info Chavez et al., 2003 Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
Small pelagic fish management considerations Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common Current situation ground Small Pelagic Short term management based on current assessment Fish SPF characteristics + projections Hypothesis Management Medium or Long term management not reliable due to E2E models poor recruitment forecast what is end2end Hydrodynamic models Survey recruitment index (juveniles) provides some hint food web Fleet on next year Summary Some results Final Alternative remarks Ecosystem approach to fisheries Additional Info Requires to integrate bottom-up, sideways and top-down effects Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
Outline of the talk Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Small Pelagic 2 The special case of Small Pelagic Fish Fish SPF characteristics Hypothesis Management 3 End-to-end models E2E models What is an End-to-End model? what is end2end Hydrodynamic Hydrodynamic models models food web Energy transfer through the trophic web Fleet Summary Fleet Some results Summary Final remarks Additional 4 Some results Info Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
What is an end-to-end model? Introduction Climate & Fish Integrated model of the ecosystem: Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Small Pelagic Fish SPF characteristics Hypothesis Management E2E models what is end2end Hydrodynamic models food web Fleet Summary Some results Final remarks Additional Info From CAMEO Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
What is an end-to-end model? Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Environment represented Small Pelagic Fish by climate - hydrodynamic SPF characteristics Hypothesis ocean models Management E2E models Lower, intermediate and what is end2end Hydrodynamic upper trophic levels models food web represented by modules Fleet Summary Some results Final remarks Additional Info Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
Hydrodynamic models Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common ROMS + climate forcing ground Small Pelagic Dynamical two-way Fish SPF characteristics downscaling Hypothesis Management (climate-ocean-regional E2E models model) what is end2end Hydrodynamic models Biogeochemical forcing food web Fleet High resolution: 3-10 Summary km, 30 vertical layers Some results Final Time frame up to 50 yr remarks Additional Requires parallell Info computing Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
Energy transfer from nutrients to fish to fishers Introduction From complex... ... to synthetic models Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Small Pelagic Fish SPF characteristics Hypothesis Management E2E models what is end2end Hydrodynamic models food web Fleet Summary Some results Pauly, 2001 Final remarks Additional Info Lavigne, 1996 Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
Nutrients and lower trophic levels Introduction Climate & Fish Example: NEMURO Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Small Pelagic Fish SPF characteristics Hypothesis Management E2E models what is end2end Hydrodynamic models food web Fleet Summary Some results Final remarks Additional Info Kishi et al., 2007 Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
Intermediate trophic levels: Small pelagic fish Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common ground What needs to be modelled? Small Pelagic Reproduction Fish SPF characteristics Hypothesis Growth Management E2E models Movement what is end2end Hydrodynamic Mortality models food web Fleet Summary Some results Final remarks Additional Info Individual Based Model (one individual represent a “school”) Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
Bioenergetics: consumption vs growth + reproduction Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean What goes in = what comes out Finding common ground Small Pelagic Fish Active Metabolism SPF characteristics  Costs from activity Hypothesis Management Consumption E2E models what is end2end Respiration ΔBiomass Hydrodynamic models  Basal Metabolism  Growth food web Fleet Specific Dynamic Action Egestion- F & Excretion -U  Costs from digestion Summary Gonads Some results Reproduction Final remarks C = (R + A + S)+ (F + U) + (ΔB + G) Additional Info From Wisconsin bioenergetics model description Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
Movement: searching the “best” habitat Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common Passive transport for eggs (and larvae) (particle ground tracking) Small Pelagic Fish SPF characteristics Active movement for juvenile and adults Hypothesis Management E2E models what is end2end Hydrodynamic “happy until things are bad” “active searching for models food web Inertial movement in a happiness” Fleet Summary given direction (follow Analise surrounding Some results the current) environment for best Final conditions remarks When some proxy goes Food, temperature, Additional wrong (temperature, Info etc food): Random search Humston et al., 2004 Railsback et al., 1999 Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
Mortality Introduction Climate & Fish Predation Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Natural predators Fleet Small Pelagic Fish Tuna, cod, cetaceans, Fleet characteristics SPF characteristics Hypothesis mackerel, birds,etc (capacity, trip duration, Management E2E models No growth, mortality or ports, etc) what is end2end Hydrodynamic reproduction, just Mortality on fish, but models food web variable abundance also revenue Fleet Summary and distribution Controlled by Some results socioeconomics Final remarks Additional Other mortality sources Info “Natural” Starvation (early life stages) Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
Fleet modelling Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common Port based, daily trips ground Small Pelagic Expected revenue: Fish SPF characteristics historic revenue from Hypothesis Management locations E2E models Real revenue: balance what is end2end Hydrodynamic models between cost and food web Fleet benefit Summary Update revenue for next Some results time Final remarks Impose mortality on fish Additional Info California fishing ports Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
Fleet modelling Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common Port based, daily trips ground Small Pelagic Expected revenue: Fish SPF characteristics historic revenue from Hypothesis Management locations E2E models Real revenue: balance what is end2end Hydrodynamic models between cost and food web Fleet benefit Summary Update revenue for next Some results Final time remarks Impose mortality on fish Additional Info Revenue fields Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
Fleet modelling Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common Port based, daily trips ground Small Pelagic Expected revenue: Fish SPF characteristics historic revenue from Hypothesis Management locations E2E models Real revenue: balance what is end2end Hydrodynamic models between cost and food web Fleet benefit Summary Update revenue for next Some results Final time remarks Impose mortality on fish Additional Info Revenue fields Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
Summary of the ecosystem model Introduction Climate & Fish Model grid Climate & Ocean Finding common Lower trophic levels ground (eulerian) Small Pelagic Fish Fish movement SPF characteristics Hypothesis (lagrangian): Management consumption E2E models growth what is end2end Hydrodynamic feedback on LTL models food web Predators Fleet Summary mortality Some results Fleet Final mortality remarks Socioeconomic Additional Info output Reproduction Life cycle Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
Summary of the ecosystem model Introduction Climate & Fish Model grid Climate & Ocean Finding common Lower trophic levels ground (eulerian) Small Pelagic Fish Fish movement SPF characteristics Hypothesis (lagrangian): Management consumption E2E models growth what is end2end Hydrodynamic feedback on LTL models food web Predators Fleet Summary mortality Some results Fleet Final mortality remarks Socioeconomic Additional Info output Reproduction Life cycle Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
Summary of the ecosystem model Introduction Climate & Fish Model grid Climate & Ocean Finding common Lower trophic levels ground (eulerian) Small Pelagic Fish Fish movement SPF characteristics Hypothesis (lagrangian): Management consumption E2E models growth what is end2end Hydrodynamic feedback on LTL models food web Predators Fleet Summary mortality Some results Fleet Final mortality remarks Socioeconomic Additional Info output Reproduction Life cycle Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
Summary of the ecosystem model Introduction Climate & Fish Model grid Climate & Ocean Finding common Lower trophic levels ground (eulerian) Small Pelagic Fish Fish movement SPF characteristics Hypothesis (lagrangian): Management consumption E2E models growth what is end2end Hydrodynamic feedback on LTL models food web Predators Fleet Summary mortality Some results Fleet Final mortality remarks Socioeconomic Additional Info output Reproduction Life cycle Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
Summary of the ecosystem model Introduction Climate & Fish Model grid Climate & Ocean Finding common Lower trophic levels ground (eulerian) Small Pelagic Fish Fish movement SPF characteristics Hypothesis (lagrangian): Management consumption E2E models growth what is end2end Hydrodynamic feedback on LTL models food web Predators Fleet Summary mortality Some results Fleet Final mortality remarks Socioeconomic Additional Info output Reproduction Life cycle Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
Summary of the ecosystem model Introduction Climate & Fish Model grid Climate & Ocean Finding common Lower trophic levels ground (eulerian) Small Pelagic Fish Fish movement SPF characteristics Hypothesis (lagrangian): Management consumption E2E models growth what is end2end Hydrodynamic feedback on LTL models food web Predators Fleet Summary mortality Some results Fleet Final mortality remarks Socioeconomic Additional Info output Reproduction Life cycle Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
Reproductive output for California sardine Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Small Pelagic Fish SPF characteristics Hypothesis Management E2E models what is end2end Hydrodynamic models food web Fleet Summary Some results Final remarks Additional Info Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
End-to-end model outputs Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Small Pelagic Fish SPF characteristics Hypothesis Management E2E models what is end2end Hydrodynamic models food web Fleet Summary Some results Final remarks Additional Info from CAMEO Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
End-to-end model outputs Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Small Pelagic Fish SPF characteristics Hypothesis Management E2E models what is end2end Hydrodynamic models food web Fleet Summary Some results Final remarks Additional Info from CAMEO Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
Final remarks Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Prototypes of the whole model currently working Small Pelagic (Aegean Sea, California Current; papers in preparation) Fish SPF characteristics Hypothesis Large synthesis of current knowledge and true Management multidisciplinary work E2E models what is end2end There is scope to use the framework both for Hydrodynamic models food web hypothesis testing and to gradually build forecasting Fleet Summary capacity Some results Potentially useful for fish management (risk analysis), Final remarks specially in changing climate scenarios Additional Other uses include providing ecosystem risk Info management tools (e.g. oil industry risk analysis, etc.) Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
Final remarks Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Small Pelagic A word of caution ... Fish SPF characteristics “...we urge restraint in using end-to-end models in a true Hypothesis Management forecasting mode (Clark et al. 2001) until we gain more E2E models experience regarding their performance” what is end2end Hydrodynamic models food web “End-to-end models may appear to be an ideal way to meet Fleet Summary the need for ecosystem-based approaches, but we should Some results resist the temptation of using them to make forecasts for Final management until their performance and robustness are remarks Additional adequately tested” (Rose et al., 2010) Info Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
Final remarks Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Related activities Small Pelagic Fish SPF characteristics Hypothesis New ICES-PICES-CIESM Second international Management WG proposal: Symposium on the E2E models what is end2end Review and stimulate the Effects of Climate Hydrodynamic models development of end-to-end Change on the World’s food web Fleet models of marine Oceans (Korea, May Summary ecosystems 2012) Some results Final remarks Additional Thank you for your attention! Info Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
ROMS Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common Boundary and initial conditions ground Small Pelagic SODA-POP (1958-2006) Fish SPF characteristics Monthly surface elevation, velocity, temperature, and Hypothesis Management salinity fields E2E models Carton et al., 2000 what is end2end Hydrodynamic models food web Fleet Surface forcing Summary CORE2 (1958-2006) Some results Final 6-hour wind and heat fluxes remarks Daily radiation fluxes Additional Info Monthly precipitation Large and Yeager 2008 Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
Estimating the energy allocated to grow and reproduce Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Laboratory experiments + models Small Pelagic Fish SPF characteristics Wisconsin-type model Dynamic energy budget model Hypothesis Management E2E models Ci − (Fi + Si + Ei ) what is end2end growthi = Hydrodynamic models Aei × Ci food web CALp Fleet Wi+1 = growthi × × Wi Summary CALf Some results − REi × Wi Final remarks Additional Info Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
Developing a reproductive expenses module for Wisconsin Bioenergetics Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Small Pelagic Fish SPF characteristics Based on the oocite Hypothesis Management maturation cycle E2E models Estimate reproductive what is end2end Hydrodynamic expenses and egg models food web production Fleet Summary Allows for atresia; Some results reabsorbtion of energy Final remarks and modification of Additional spawning frequency Info Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
Model outputs Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Small Pelagic Fish SPF characteristics Hypothesis Management E2E models what is end2end Hydrodynamic models food web Fleet Summary Some results Final remarks Additional Info Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
Model outputs Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Small Pelagic Fish SPF characteristics Hypothesis Management E2E models what is end2end Hydrodynamic models food web Fleet Summary Some results Final remarks Additional Info Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
Model outputs Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Small Pelagic Fish SPF characteristics Hypothesis Management E2E models what is end2end Hydrodynamic models food web Fleet Summary Some results Final remarks Additional Info Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
Model outputs Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Small Pelagic Fish SPF characteristics Hypothesis Management E2E models what is end2end Hydrodynamic models food web Fleet Summary Some results Final remarks Additional Info Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
Reproductive output for California anchovy Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Small Pelagic Fish SPF characteristics Hypothesis Management E2E models what is end2end Hydrodynamic models food web Fleet Summary Some results Final remarks Additional Info Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
Reproductive output for California sardine Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Small Pelagic Fish SPF characteristics Hypothesis Management E2E models what is end2end Hydrodynamic models food web Fleet Summary Some results Final remarks Additional Info Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers

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From Climate to Fishers: An Integrated Approach

  • 1. Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Small Pelagic From Climate to Fish to Fishers: an Fish SPF characteristics integrated approach to small pelagic Hypothesis Management fisheries E2E models what is end2end Hydrodynamic models food web Miguel Bernal Fleet Summary ˜ Instituto Espanol de Oceanograf´a (IEO) ı Some results ` Institut de Ciencies del Mar (CSIC) Final remarks Additional Info ` Sete, 28 April 2011 Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  • 2. Contributors & related projects Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Small Pelagic Enrique Curchitser Fish CAMEO: Mechanisms for low-freq. Rutgers University SPF characteristics variability of forage fish: A comparative Hypothesis Kenny A. Rose Management Louisiana State University analysis of N. Pacific sardine systems E2E models http://alnilam.marine.rutgers.edu/wikiCAMEO what is end2end Jerome Fletcher University of California – Hydrodynamic models Santa Cruz REPROdUCE:understanding food web REproductive PROcesses Using Fleet Kate Hedstrom Summary Arctic Region Coupled biophysical models of the Some results Supercomputing Center pelagic Ecosystem Final Manuel Ruiz-Villarreal http://www.pelagic-ecosystems.net/REPROdUCE remarks ˜ Instituto Espanol de Additional Oceanograf´aı Info Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  • 3. Outline of the talk Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Small Pelagic 1 Introduction: what links climate and fish? Fish SPF characteristics Hypothesis Management 2 The special case of Small Pelagic Fish E2E models what is end2end Hydrodynamic models 3 End-to-end models food web Fleet Summary Some results 4 Some results Final remarks Additional 5 Final remarks Info Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  • 4. Outline of the talk Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Small Pelagic Fish 1 Introduction: what links climate and fish? SPF characteristics Hypothesis What links climate to fish? Management Ocean dynamics and climate E2E models what is end2end Finding common ground Hydrodynamic models food web Fleet Summary 2 The special case of Small Pelagic Fish Some results Final 3 End-to-end models remarks Additional Info Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  • 5. What links climate to fish? Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Fisheries science basics Small Pelagic Fish SPF characteristics Recruitment Hypothesis Management = new fish E2E models Recruits what is end2end Hydrodynamic + mortality models food web → stock Fleet Summary Some results Final remarks Additional Info Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  • 6. What links climate to fish? Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common ground What control recruitment? Small Pelagic Fish SPF characteristics Internal control on Hypothesis Management recruitment E2E models Biomass and what is end2end Hydrodynamic models structure of the stock food web Fleet controls next Summary generation Ricker, 1954 Some results Very noisy but still a Final remarks basis for stock Additional Info management Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  • 7. What links climate to fish? Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean What control recruitment? Finding common ground External control on stock Small Pelagic Fish and recruitment SPF characteristics Hypothesis Predation (top-down Management E2E models control) what is end2end Hydrodynamic Competition models food web (sideways control) Fleet Summary Food availability Some results (bottom-up control) Final remarks Ocean dynamics Additional Info Adapted from Cury et al., 2001 Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  • 8. What links climate to fish? Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean What control recruitment? Finding common ground External control on stock Small Pelagic Fish and recruitment SPF characteristics Hypothesis Predation (top-down Management E2E models control) what is end2end Hydrodynamic Competition models food web (sideways control) Fleet Summary Food availability Some results (bottom-up control) Final remarks Ocean dynamics Additional Info Adapted from Cury et al., 2001 Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  • 9. What links climate to fish? Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean What control recruitment? Finding common ground External control on stock Small Pelagic Fish and recruitment SPF characteristics Hypothesis Predation (top-down Management E2E models control) what is end2end Hydrodynamic Competition models food web (sideways control) Fleet Summary Food availability Some results (bottom-up control) Final remarks Ocean dynamics Additional Info Adapted from Cury et al., 2001 Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  • 10. What links climate to fish? Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean What control recruitment? Finding common ground External control on stock Small Pelagic Fish and recruitment SPF characteristics Hypothesis Predation (top-down Management E2E models control) what is end2end Hydrodynamic Competition models food web (sideways control) Fleet Summary Food availability Some results (bottom-up control) Final remarks Ocean dynamics Additional Info Adapted from Cury et al., 2001 Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  • 11. Ocean dynamics Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common Climate and Ocean dynamics ground Small Pelagic Community Fish SPF characteristics Climate System Hypothesis Management Models try to E2E models incorporate main what is end2end Hydrodynamic Earth processes models food web affecting climate Fleet Summary Ocean - Some results atmosphere Final remarks coupling is crucial Additional Info NCAR CCSM forcing Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  • 12. Finding common ground: downscaling and upscaling Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Small Pelagic Fish SPF characteristics Hypothesis Management E2E models what is end2end Hydrodynamic models food web Fleet Summary Some results Final remarks Additional Dickey,  1991,  2003   Info Provided by E. Curchitser Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  • 13. Outline of the talk Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Small Pelagic Fish 1 Introduction: what links climate and fish? SPF characteristics Hypothesis Management 2 The special case of Small Pelagic Fish E2E models what is end2end SPF characteristics Hydrodynamic models food web Hypothesis Fleet Summary Management considerations Some results Final 3 End-to-end models remarks Additional Info Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  • 14. The special case of Small Pelagic Fish Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Challenges Finding common ground Situated in productive Small Pelagic Fish ecosystems SPF characteristics Hypothesis Large stocks but Management highly variable E2E models what is end2end biomass Hydrodynamic models food web Exploited by large Fleet Summary fleets, fisheries Global SST image Some results collapses examples Final remarks Cycles and Additional teleconections Info (bottom up + regimes) Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  • 15. The special case of Small Pelagic Fish Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Challenges Finding common ground Situated in productive Small Pelagic Fish ecosystems SPF characteristics Hypothesis Large stocks but Management highly variable E2E models what is end2end biomass Hydrodynamic models food web Exploited by large Fleet Summary fleets, fisheries Some results collapses examples Final remarks Cycles and Baumgartner et al., 1992 Additional teleconections Info (bottom up + regimes) Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  • 16. The special case of Small Pelagic Fish Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Challenges Finding common ground Situated in productive Small Pelagic Fish ecosystems SPF characteristics Hypothesis Large stocks but Management highly variable E2E models what is end2end biomass Hydrodynamic models food web Exploited by large Fleet Summary fleets, fisheries Some results collapses examples Final remarks Cycles and Baumgartner et al., 1992 Additional teleconections Info (bottom up + regimes) Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  • 17. The special case of Small Pelagic Fish Introduction Climate & Fish Challenges Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Situated in productive Small Pelagic ecosystems Fish SPF characteristics Hypothesis Large stocks but Management highly variable E2E models what is end2end biomass Hydrodynamic models food web Exploited by large Fleet Summary fleets, fisheries Some results collapses examples Final Cycles and remarks Additional teleconections Info (bottom up + regimes) Schwartzlose et al., 1999 Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  • 18. The special case of Small Pelagic Fish Introduction Climate & Fish Challenges Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Situated in productive Small Pelagic ecosystems Fish SPF characteristics Hypothesis Large stocks but Management highly variable E2E models what is end2end biomass Hydrodynamic models food web Exploited by large Fleet Summary fleets, fisheries Some results collapses examples Final Climate and human remarks Additional interactions affect Info dynamics Schwartzlose et al., 1999 Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  • 19. Hypothesis on mechanism that explain small pelagic fish fluctuations Introduction Hypothesis References Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Combined advection and trophody- Alheit and Niquen (2004); Finding common ground namic hypothesis Alheit and Bakun (2009) Bakun and Cury (1999); Small Pelagic Fish Loop-hole, school trap and Active Bakun and Broad (2003); SPF characteristics opportunist hypothesis Bakun (2009) Hypothesis Management Intra-guild predation hypothesis Irigoien and de Roos (2009) E2E models Fishing hypothesis Smith et al. (2009) what is end2end MacCall (2009) Hydrodynamic models Boundary current flow hypothesis food web Fleet Trophic partitioning and habitat hy- Rykazcewski and Checkley Summary pothesis (2008) Some results Takasuka et al. (2007); Final Temperature-based hypothesis Takasuka et al. (2008a); remarks Takasuka et al. (2008b) Additional Kuroshio Extension Oscillation hy- Takahashi et al. (2009) Info pothesis Van der Lingen et al. (2006); Trophic dissimilarity hypothesis van der lingen et al. (2009) Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  • 20. Hypothesis on mechanism that explain small pelagic fish fluctuations Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Small Pelagic Fish SPF characteristics Hypothesis Management E2E models what is end2end Hydrodynamic models food web Fleet Summary Some results Final remarks Additional Info van der Lingen et al., 2009 Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  • 21. Hypothesis on mechanism that explain small pelagic fish fluctuations Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Small Pelagic Fish SPF characteristics Hypothesis Management E2E models what is end2end Hydrodynamic models food web Fleet Summary Some results Final remarks Additional Info Chavez et al., 2003 Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  • 22. Small pelagic fish management considerations Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common Current situation ground Small Pelagic Short term management based on current assessment Fish SPF characteristics + projections Hypothesis Management Medium or Long term management not reliable due to E2E models poor recruitment forecast what is end2end Hydrodynamic models Survey recruitment index (juveniles) provides some hint food web Fleet on next year Summary Some results Final Alternative remarks Ecosystem approach to fisheries Additional Info Requires to integrate bottom-up, sideways and top-down effects Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  • 23. Outline of the talk Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Small Pelagic 2 The special case of Small Pelagic Fish Fish SPF characteristics Hypothesis Management 3 End-to-end models E2E models What is an End-to-End model? what is end2end Hydrodynamic Hydrodynamic models models food web Energy transfer through the trophic web Fleet Summary Fleet Some results Summary Final remarks Additional 4 Some results Info Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  • 24. What is an end-to-end model? Introduction Climate & Fish Integrated model of the ecosystem: Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Small Pelagic Fish SPF characteristics Hypothesis Management E2E models what is end2end Hydrodynamic models food web Fleet Summary Some results Final remarks Additional Info From CAMEO Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  • 25. What is an end-to-end model? Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Environment represented Small Pelagic Fish by climate - hydrodynamic SPF characteristics Hypothesis ocean models Management E2E models Lower, intermediate and what is end2end Hydrodynamic upper trophic levels models food web represented by modules Fleet Summary Some results Final remarks Additional Info Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  • 26. Hydrodynamic models Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common ROMS + climate forcing ground Small Pelagic Dynamical two-way Fish SPF characteristics downscaling Hypothesis Management (climate-ocean-regional E2E models model) what is end2end Hydrodynamic models Biogeochemical forcing food web Fleet High resolution: 3-10 Summary km, 30 vertical layers Some results Final Time frame up to 50 yr remarks Additional Requires parallell Info computing Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  • 27. Energy transfer from nutrients to fish to fishers Introduction From complex... ... to synthetic models Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Small Pelagic Fish SPF characteristics Hypothesis Management E2E models what is end2end Hydrodynamic models food web Fleet Summary Some results Pauly, 2001 Final remarks Additional Info Lavigne, 1996 Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  • 28. Nutrients and lower trophic levels Introduction Climate & Fish Example: NEMURO Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Small Pelagic Fish SPF characteristics Hypothesis Management E2E models what is end2end Hydrodynamic models food web Fleet Summary Some results Final remarks Additional Info Kishi et al., 2007 Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  • 29. Intermediate trophic levels: Small pelagic fish Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common ground What needs to be modelled? Small Pelagic Reproduction Fish SPF characteristics Hypothesis Growth Management E2E models Movement what is end2end Hydrodynamic Mortality models food web Fleet Summary Some results Final remarks Additional Info Individual Based Model (one individual represent a “school”) Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  • 30. Bioenergetics: consumption vs growth + reproduction Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean What goes in = what comes out Finding common ground Small Pelagic Fish Active Metabolism SPF characteristics  Costs from activity Hypothesis Management Consumption E2E models what is end2end Respiration ΔBiomass Hydrodynamic models  Basal Metabolism  Growth food web Fleet Specific Dynamic Action Egestion- F & Excretion -U  Costs from digestion Summary Gonads Some results Reproduction Final remarks C = (R + A + S)+ (F + U) + (ΔB + G) Additional Info From Wisconsin bioenergetics model description Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  • 31. Movement: searching the “best” habitat Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common Passive transport for eggs (and larvae) (particle ground tracking) Small Pelagic Fish SPF characteristics Active movement for juvenile and adults Hypothesis Management E2E models what is end2end Hydrodynamic “happy until things are bad” “active searching for models food web Inertial movement in a happiness” Fleet Summary given direction (follow Analise surrounding Some results the current) environment for best Final conditions remarks When some proxy goes Food, temperature, Additional wrong (temperature, Info etc food): Random search Humston et al., 2004 Railsback et al., 1999 Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  • 32. Mortality Introduction Climate & Fish Predation Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Natural predators Fleet Small Pelagic Fish Tuna, cod, cetaceans, Fleet characteristics SPF characteristics Hypothesis mackerel, birds,etc (capacity, trip duration, Management E2E models No growth, mortality or ports, etc) what is end2end Hydrodynamic reproduction, just Mortality on fish, but models food web variable abundance also revenue Fleet Summary and distribution Controlled by Some results socioeconomics Final remarks Additional Other mortality sources Info “Natural” Starvation (early life stages) Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  • 33. Fleet modelling Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common Port based, daily trips ground Small Pelagic Expected revenue: Fish SPF characteristics historic revenue from Hypothesis Management locations E2E models Real revenue: balance what is end2end Hydrodynamic models between cost and food web Fleet benefit Summary Update revenue for next Some results time Final remarks Impose mortality on fish Additional Info California fishing ports Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  • 34. Fleet modelling Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common Port based, daily trips ground Small Pelagic Expected revenue: Fish SPF characteristics historic revenue from Hypothesis Management locations E2E models Real revenue: balance what is end2end Hydrodynamic models between cost and food web Fleet benefit Summary Update revenue for next Some results Final time remarks Impose mortality on fish Additional Info Revenue fields Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  • 35. Fleet modelling Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common Port based, daily trips ground Small Pelagic Expected revenue: Fish SPF characteristics historic revenue from Hypothesis Management locations E2E models Real revenue: balance what is end2end Hydrodynamic models between cost and food web Fleet benefit Summary Update revenue for next Some results Final time remarks Impose mortality on fish Additional Info Revenue fields Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  • 36. Summary of the ecosystem model Introduction Climate & Fish Model grid Climate & Ocean Finding common Lower trophic levels ground (eulerian) Small Pelagic Fish Fish movement SPF characteristics Hypothesis (lagrangian): Management consumption E2E models growth what is end2end Hydrodynamic feedback on LTL models food web Predators Fleet Summary mortality Some results Fleet Final mortality remarks Socioeconomic Additional Info output Reproduction Life cycle Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  • 37. Summary of the ecosystem model Introduction Climate & Fish Model grid Climate & Ocean Finding common Lower trophic levels ground (eulerian) Small Pelagic Fish Fish movement SPF characteristics Hypothesis (lagrangian): Management consumption E2E models growth what is end2end Hydrodynamic feedback on LTL models food web Predators Fleet Summary mortality Some results Fleet Final mortality remarks Socioeconomic Additional Info output Reproduction Life cycle Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  • 38. Summary of the ecosystem model Introduction Climate & Fish Model grid Climate & Ocean Finding common Lower trophic levels ground (eulerian) Small Pelagic Fish Fish movement SPF characteristics Hypothesis (lagrangian): Management consumption E2E models growth what is end2end Hydrodynamic feedback on LTL models food web Predators Fleet Summary mortality Some results Fleet Final mortality remarks Socioeconomic Additional Info output Reproduction Life cycle Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  • 39. Summary of the ecosystem model Introduction Climate & Fish Model grid Climate & Ocean Finding common Lower trophic levels ground (eulerian) Small Pelagic Fish Fish movement SPF characteristics Hypothesis (lagrangian): Management consumption E2E models growth what is end2end Hydrodynamic feedback on LTL models food web Predators Fleet Summary mortality Some results Fleet Final mortality remarks Socioeconomic Additional Info output Reproduction Life cycle Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  • 40. Summary of the ecosystem model Introduction Climate & Fish Model grid Climate & Ocean Finding common Lower trophic levels ground (eulerian) Small Pelagic Fish Fish movement SPF characteristics Hypothesis (lagrangian): Management consumption E2E models growth what is end2end Hydrodynamic feedback on LTL models food web Predators Fleet Summary mortality Some results Fleet Final mortality remarks Socioeconomic Additional Info output Reproduction Life cycle Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  • 41. Summary of the ecosystem model Introduction Climate & Fish Model grid Climate & Ocean Finding common Lower trophic levels ground (eulerian) Small Pelagic Fish Fish movement SPF characteristics Hypothesis (lagrangian): Management consumption E2E models growth what is end2end Hydrodynamic feedback on LTL models food web Predators Fleet Summary mortality Some results Fleet Final mortality remarks Socioeconomic Additional Info output Reproduction Life cycle Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  • 42. Reproductive output for California sardine Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Small Pelagic Fish SPF characteristics Hypothesis Management E2E models what is end2end Hydrodynamic models food web Fleet Summary Some results Final remarks Additional Info Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  • 43. End-to-end model outputs Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Small Pelagic Fish SPF characteristics Hypothesis Management E2E models what is end2end Hydrodynamic models food web Fleet Summary Some results Final remarks Additional Info from CAMEO Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  • 44. End-to-end model outputs Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Small Pelagic Fish SPF characteristics Hypothesis Management E2E models what is end2end Hydrodynamic models food web Fleet Summary Some results Final remarks Additional Info from CAMEO Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  • 45. Final remarks Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Prototypes of the whole model currently working Small Pelagic (Aegean Sea, California Current; papers in preparation) Fish SPF characteristics Hypothesis Large synthesis of current knowledge and true Management multidisciplinary work E2E models what is end2end There is scope to use the framework both for Hydrodynamic models food web hypothesis testing and to gradually build forecasting Fleet Summary capacity Some results Potentially useful for fish management (risk analysis), Final remarks specially in changing climate scenarios Additional Other uses include providing ecosystem risk Info management tools (e.g. oil industry risk analysis, etc.) Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  • 46. Final remarks Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Small Pelagic A word of caution ... Fish SPF characteristics “...we urge restraint in using end-to-end models in a true Hypothesis Management forecasting mode (Clark et al. 2001) until we gain more E2E models experience regarding their performance” what is end2end Hydrodynamic models food web “End-to-end models may appear to be an ideal way to meet Fleet Summary the need for ecosystem-based approaches, but we should Some results resist the temptation of using them to make forecasts for Final management until their performance and robustness are remarks Additional adequately tested” (Rose et al., 2010) Info Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  • 47. Final remarks Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Related activities Small Pelagic Fish SPF characteristics Hypothesis New ICES-PICES-CIESM Second international Management WG proposal: Symposium on the E2E models what is end2end Review and stimulate the Effects of Climate Hydrodynamic models development of end-to-end Change on the World’s food web Fleet models of marine Oceans (Korea, May Summary ecosystems 2012) Some results Final remarks Additional Thank you for your attention! Info Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  • 48. ROMS Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common Boundary and initial conditions ground Small Pelagic SODA-POP (1958-2006) Fish SPF characteristics Monthly surface elevation, velocity, temperature, and Hypothesis Management salinity fields E2E models Carton et al., 2000 what is end2end Hydrodynamic models food web Fleet Surface forcing Summary CORE2 (1958-2006) Some results Final 6-hour wind and heat fluxes remarks Daily radiation fluxes Additional Info Monthly precipitation Large and Yeager 2008 Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  • 49. Estimating the energy allocated to grow and reproduce Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Laboratory experiments + models Small Pelagic Fish SPF characteristics Wisconsin-type model Dynamic energy budget model Hypothesis Management E2E models Ci − (Fi + Si + Ei ) what is end2end growthi = Hydrodynamic models Aei × Ci food web CALp Fleet Wi+1 = growthi × × Wi Summary CALf Some results − REi × Wi Final remarks Additional Info Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  • 50. Developing a reproductive expenses module for Wisconsin Bioenergetics Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Small Pelagic Fish SPF characteristics Based on the oocite Hypothesis Management maturation cycle E2E models Estimate reproductive what is end2end Hydrodynamic expenses and egg models food web production Fleet Summary Allows for atresia; Some results reabsorbtion of energy Final remarks and modification of Additional spawning frequency Info Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  • 51. Model outputs Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Small Pelagic Fish SPF characteristics Hypothesis Management E2E models what is end2end Hydrodynamic models food web Fleet Summary Some results Final remarks Additional Info Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  • 52. Model outputs Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Small Pelagic Fish SPF characteristics Hypothesis Management E2E models what is end2end Hydrodynamic models food web Fleet Summary Some results Final remarks Additional Info Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  • 53. Model outputs Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Small Pelagic Fish SPF characteristics Hypothesis Management E2E models what is end2end Hydrodynamic models food web Fleet Summary Some results Final remarks Additional Info Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  • 54. Model outputs Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Small Pelagic Fish SPF characteristics Hypothesis Management E2E models what is end2end Hydrodynamic models food web Fleet Summary Some results Final remarks Additional Info Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  • 55. Reproductive output for California anchovy Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Small Pelagic Fish SPF characteristics Hypothesis Management E2E models what is end2end Hydrodynamic models food web Fleet Summary Some results Final remarks Additional Info Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  • 56. Reproductive output for California sardine Introduction Climate & Fish Climate & Ocean Finding common ground Small Pelagic Fish SPF characteristics Hypothesis Management E2E models what is end2end Hydrodynamic models food web Fleet Summary Some results Final remarks Additional Info Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers