Five Ways to Improve Employability in Higher Education

Five Ways to Improve Employability in Higher Ed
Shifting From Activity to Outcomes

Michael A. Bettersworth
Associate Vice Chancellor,
Senior Advisor to the Chancellor
Presented at SXSWEdu Texas State Technical College
Austin, Texas www.forecasting.tstc.edu
March 6, 2013 Follow @bettersworth

Wednesday, March 6, 13

Class of 2012

/Undere mployed
r Grads Jobless
54 % of 4-Y n Wages
Year Low Media n Debt
10-
age Stud ent Loa
$28,7 00 Aver

Sources:Yen, H. “Half of new grads are jobless or underemployed.” MSNBC. April 24, 2012; Clark, K.
“Help free your grad from debt.” CNN Money, May 23, 2012; Shierholz, Sabadish, and Wething. “The
Presented by Michael A. Bettersworth, Texas State Technical College
Class of 2012: Labor market for young graduates remains grim.” Economic Policy Institute. May 3, 2012

Student Loan Debt Now Exceeds Credit Card Debt

Student Loan Debt Increased
$663,000,000,000 Over 10 Years

Source: “What Caused the Student Loan Bubble”


“There is a growing sense among the public that
higher education might be overpriced and
under-delivering.”

Source: Cronin, Joseph & Horton, Howard. Will higher education be the next bubble to burst? The Chronicle of Higher Education. May 22, 2009.

Five Ways to Improve Employability Outcomes in Higher Ed
Shifting From Activity to Outcomes

Context: The Higher Ed Bubble
Scorecard: Performance Metrics
Awareness: Market Analysis
Product: Curriculum Alignment
Process: Talent Pipeline (example)
Structure: Value-Based Funding
Discussion


Soaring Cost of Higher Education Tuition

Source: TakePart based on data from BLS and Census Bureau


College Costs Expected to Continue Increase

The cost of one year in
college if your child begins…

Source: College Board


Student Loan Debt Only Sector Increasing

Source: Federal Reserve


Student Loan Delinquencies Also Increasing Steadily

Source: New York Federal Reserve, Quarterly Report on Household Debt & Credit, February 2013


Student Loan Delinquencies Also Increasing Steadily

Source: New York Federal Reserve, Quarterly Report on Household Debt & Credit, August 2011


Pop Goes the Student Loan Market?

Source: New York Federal Reserve, Quarterly Report on Household Debt & Credit, August 2011


Reality of Student Loans Much Worse than Popular Numbers

Source: http://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2012/03/grading-student-loans.html


Lifetime Student Loan Default Rates—Much, Much Higher

“According to unpublished data obtained by The Chronicle,
one in every ﬁve government loans that entered
repayment in 1995 has gone into default.”
Source: Kelly Field. Chronicle of Higher Education. “Government Vastly Undercounts Defaults”. July 11, 2010


The Higher Ed Bubble

Since 2000

Tuition
Up 23%

Earnings
Down 11%


You Can Run, But You Can’t Hide

The Government Can:
• Garnish up to 15% of take-home pay.
• Intercept income tax refunds and lottery winnings.
• Offset 15% of Social Security benefit payments.
• Place liens on back accounts and property.
• Charge collection fees up to 30% of balance.
• Revoke state-issued licenses.
• No statute of limitations.

FACTOID
~72,000 federal student loan borrowers filed for
bankruptcy in 2008. Only 29 (.04%) succeeded in
obtaining a full or partial discharge of their loans.

The colleges that most students
attend "need to streamline
their programs, so they
emphasize employability.”

Anthony P. Carnevale
Director, Georgetown Center
Georgetown University

“At the post-secondary level,
we need a concerted effort
to link work and
learning by providing far
more opportunities for
work-based learning.”

William Symonds, Director
Pathways to Prosperity
Harvard University


“Our current system places
far too much emphasis
on a single pathway to success:
attending and graduating from
a four-year college after
completing an academic
program of study in high
school.”

Harvard University


“For too many of our youth,
we have treated preparing for
college versus preparing for
career as mutually
exclusive options.”

Harvard University


“Today’s best CTE programs
do a better job of preparing
many students for college
and career than traditional
academics-only programs.”

Harvard University


“I
believe
that
our

educa1on
system

should
make
a
shi7
to

one
that
is
market-‐
driven
and
takes
into

account
the
skills

needed
by
employers.”
Tom Pauken
Commissioner (for a few more days)
Texas Workforce Commission


“Today,
a
serious

imbalance
is
emerging

between
the
demand

for
skilled
workers
and

the
state’s
ability
to

supply
them.”
Susan
Combs
Texas
Comptroller


Role of Texas Two-Year Colleges Continues Move Towards Academic Prep
Texas'Community'&'Technical'College'Contact'Hour'Distribu9on'
Academic" Technical"

250"
Millions'

200"

150"

100"

50"

0"
FY99" FY00" FY01" FY02" FY03" FY04" FY05" FY06" FY07" FY08" FY09" FY10"


“We have declared
War on Work”

“...the collective effect [...] has
been this marginalization of
lots and lots of jobs. And I
realized [...] to me the most
important thing to know and to
really come face to face with
is the fact that I got it wrong
about a lot of things.”

Mike Rowe, Dirty Jobs
Source: TED Speech, December 2008.


The Danger of Averages--ESPECIALLY in Public Policy

Source: Texas Works: Training and Education for All Texans

“When certiﬁcate holders work
in the ﬁeld they studied, they earn
nearly 40% more than high
school graduates.”


Median earnings in Alabama employment market, and certiﬁcates/degrees weighted by value to the state and individuals:

Source: Kelley, P., The dreaded “P” word: an examination of productivity in public postsecondary education, July 2009.


ON G
R
If you earn a bachelor’s degree, you will earn
$1,000,000 more over the course of your life.

W

In terms of EARNINGS,
It is not THAT you study
It is WHAT you study.


The federal government should
create “an information system that
links high school and postsecondary
transcript information about
courses and grades with employer
wage records.”


Gainful Employment Disclosures (still in effect)

As of July 11, 2011, each program that falls
under these regulations is required to report:
• Occupations, SOC codes, links to occupational
proﬁles on O*NET

• Costs – tuition/fees and books/supplies (may include
additional costs)

• On-time graduation (completion) rate for each
program

• Job placement rate for students completing each
program (if currently required by state or accrediting
body)

• Median loan debt incurred by students as provided
by ED (identiﬁed separately as Title IV loan debt and
private educational loan debt)


Main Thrust of Gainful Employment Reg Struck Down June 5, 2012

HOWEVER
“The gainful employment
regulations are a reasonable
interpretation of an
ambiguous statutory
command: that the
Department provide Title IV
funding only to schools that
Judge Rudolph Contreras ‘prepare students for
U.S. District Court
District of Columbia gainful employment in a
recognized occupation,’”
Source: https://ecf.dcd.uscourts.gov/cgi-bin/show_public_doc?2011cv1314-25


Students Voting with their Feet

“Law school applications
are headed for a 30-year
low, reﬂecting increased
concern over soaring
tuition, crushing
student debt and
diminishing prospects of
lucrative employment
upon graduation.”

Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/31/education/law-schools-applications-fall-as-
costs-rise-and-jobs-are-cut.html
!


What’s Measured What Counts

Enrollments Placement Rate
Demographics Earnings
Contact Hours Student Satisfaction
Course Completion Employer Satisfaction
Graduates New Companies
Numbers of Awards Return on Investment
Award Levels Value to Taxpayer
National Benchmarks Efﬁciency

Activity Performance

TSTC System 2005-2006 Cohort Top 15 AAS Degrees, 4-Year Average Earnings
TSTC$System$2005-06$Cohort$Top$15$4-Year$Average$AAS$Earnings$
$70,000" 100"

90"
$60,000"
80"

$50,000" 70"

60"
$40,000"
50"
$30,000"
40"

$20,000" 30"

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$10,000"
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CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT. INCOMPLETE DATA. FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY.

TSTC System 2005-2006 Cohort Top 15 Certiﬁcates, 4-Year Average Earnings
TSTC$System$2005-06$Cohort$Top$15$4-Year$Average$CERT$Earnings$
$70,000" 300"

$60,000"
250"

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200"

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150"

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Top First Year Earning 2011 Two-Year Register Nursing Programs in Texas


Top First Year Earning 2011 UT Austin Bachelors,TSTC Associate & Certiﬁcates


Real-Time Labor Market Analysis

Student*Labor*Market*Outcomes**

Tradi&onal*LMI* Data0driven*
Decisions*
Real0&me*LMI*

Demand*
•  Educa'on*enrollees* •  Qualiﬁed*job*referrals*
•  Educa'on*completers* •  Improved*placements*
•  Unemployed* •  New*hires** •  Improved*employer*
•  Employed* •  Replacement*hires** rela'onships*
•  Improved*counseling*
tools*

Supply* Strategic*
Alignment*


Real-Time Labor Market Analysis Vendors

Labor/Insight™


Applications of Real-Time Labor Market Analysis Tools

PLACEMENT) CURRICULUM) FORECASTING)

•  Iden/fy)Hiring)Employers) •  Iden/fy)Current)Skills) •  Iden/fy)Emerging)Skill)&)
•  Find)Job)Openings) Needed)by)Industry) Occupa/ons)
•  Connect)Students)to)Jobs) •  Compare)to)Exis/ng)TSTC) •  Find)Hiring)Employers)
•  Analyze)Regional) Oﬀerings) For)Interviews)
Demand) •  Setup)New)Employer) •  Form)Recommenda/ons)
•  Engage)Ac/ve)Employers) Capstones) Based)on)Market)
•  Recruit)Hiring) Demand)
•  Setup)Internships)
Companies)to)Advisory) •  Drive)New)Curriculum)
•  Obtain)Scholarships)
CommiNees) Investments)


Common Skills Language through Detailed Work Activities

Program) Occupa&on)
(CIP)) (SOC))

Program$ Program$ Program$ Program$ Job$Title$ Job$Title$ Job$Title$ Job$Title$

Learning( Learning( Learning( Learning(
DWA(Skills( DWA(Skills( DWA(Skills( DWA(Skills(
Outcome( Outcome( Outcome( Outcome(





The
Problem
with
“Skills” Detailed
Work
Ac9vi9es:
• hard
technical
skills • A
classifica1on
in
O*Net
• workplace
basics
or
so7
skills • Broader
than
a
task
• worker
talents,
characteris1cs
or
behaviors • More
specific
than
a
competency
• learning
objec1ves
within
curriculum • A
common
structure
for
skills

Analyze
engineering
problems
in
electronics
manufacturing.

Object
Ac1on Object Statement
Modifier
Modifier

Source: Froeschle, Richard. “Detailed work activities common language project: developing a skills-based talent management system.”
Texas Workforce Commission. July 2012.



DWA! DWA!
Skills! Skills!
Occupation! DWA! DWA!
Skills! Skills!
(SOC)! DWA! DWA!
Skills! Skills!

DWA! DWA!
Skills! Skills!

Program! Occupation! DWA! DWA!
Skills! Skills!

(CIP)! (SOC)! DWA! DWA!
Skills! Skills!

DWA! DWA!
Skills! Skills!
Skills! Skills!
(SOC)! DWA! DWA!
Skills! Skills!


Alignment: Online Industry SME Engagement
Higher Fidelity, Lower Cost, & More Efﬁciency

DWA! DWA!
Skills! Skills!
Skills! Skills!
(SOC)! DWA! DWA!
Skills! Skills!



DWA! DWA!
Skills! Skills!
Skills! Skills!

Vice!
(SOC)! DWA! DWA!
Skills! Skills!
President!
Of Meetings!



DWA! DWA!
Skills! Skills!
Skills! Skills!
(SOC)! DWA! DWA!
Skills! Skills!

SME SME Selects SME Selects
SME Email SME Login to SME Modifies
Background Target Relevant
Notification! ActivityWare! DWAs!
Information! Occupation! DWAs!

SME Reviews
SME Exits SME Finalizes SME Selects SME constructs SME Develops
Modified
ActivityWare! DWAs! Critical DWAs! new DWAs! new DWAs!
DWAs!



Initial Analysis! Post Alignment Analysis!



Program
Award Sunset!
Redesign!

Pilot
Outcomes!

Award Curriculum
Consolidations! Revisions!


Process: Talent Pipeline Development (one example)
Standard Talent Pipeline

Hire

Position Full Time

Interview
Enroll College Career

Quality assurance of new hire is limited.
Retention can suffer if bad ﬁt.
Time to full productivity delayed.
Stronger candidates have been cherry picked.
Insufﬁcient volume of candidates.


Improved Talent Pipeline

Early
Advisory Position Interview Hire Full Time
Look




Extended Talent Pipeline

Early Scholar-
Advisory Intern Position Interview Hire Full Time
Look ship




Advanced Talent Pipeline

Scholar- Hire
ship
Early
Advisory Intern Position Co-Op Interview Full Time
Look




Sponsorship Model Talent Pipeline

Scholar-
ship

Advisory Position Sponsor Co-Op Interview Hire Full Time

Intern

Visits Part Time Employment Reimbursed Tuition
Employment
Pay Remaining Tuition
Beneﬁts, etc.
Candidate Pays Tuition

Performance

2 Year Contract



Capacity Building Talent Pipeline
College

Advisory Intern Sponsor Co-Op Interview Hire Full Time

College Career
Secondary

Dual
Career Tours Camps Enroll Credit
Compete Certs Position Interview Scholar-
ship

Middle School High School


“Information systems that make the
connections between CTE
programs and job openings
transparent are the crucial
reform going forward.”


Structure: Value-Based Funding Model
Structure Drives Behavior

Contact Hour Value-Add
• Rewards
ac1vity • Rewards
student
success
• Encourages
prolonged
1me
• Encourages
short
1me-‐to-‐
to
comple1on comple1on
• Aligns
with
academic
• Aligns
with
student
&

tradi1on industry
needs
• Focuses
ﬁrst
on
ac1vity
• Uses
job
placement
as

measures measure
of
success
• Provides
funding
in
• Is
self-‐funded
by
tax

an1cipa1on
of
desired
results revenues
a7er
desired
results

are
realized


Timeline of Value-Add Model

Value-Add concept THECB concludes model THECB Board approves
designed in collaboration feasible and “has great new Value-Add Model for
with Ray Perryman merit.” TSTC board agrees. TSTC.

2007 2009 2011 2013

2008 2010 2012

81st Session 82nd Session
80th Session 83rd Session
THECB, Comptroller, THECB, Comptroller, TWC,
TSTC asked to consider THECB uses Value-
TWC asked to do TSTC, UT Austin RMC develop
outcomes funding Add Model.
feasibility study Value-Add Model


$65K

$50
STEM $35K
$35K
Value
Add
$30K

$15K ------------
HS PS


State
Direct
$35K (Taxes)
Value Percent Revenue Share

Add Indirect
(Activity)
College


Core Logic

Placed in Generates
More Earning
High- More
Skilled Premium
Demand Tax
Talent Wages
Careers Revenue


Already Moving From Activity to Outcomes

TSTC'Transi3on'to'Outcomes'vs.'Ac3vity'
30,000$ 2,700$
Enrollment'(Ac3vity)'
Awards'(Outcomes)'
25,000$ 2,200$

20,000$ 1,700$
Enrollment'

Awards'
15,000$ 1,200$

10,000$ 700$

5,000$ 200$

0$ (FY 2000) (FY 2001) (FY 2002) (FY 2003) (FY 2004) (FY 2005) (FY 2006) (FY 2007) (FY 2008) (FY 2009) (FY 2010) (FY 2011) (FY 2012)
!300$
Enrollment (Activity) 16,461 16,089 18,102 22,285 24,082 26,966 25,124 27,145 25,379 23,774 23,838 20,168 18,309
Awards (Outcomes) 2,069 1,870 1,988 1,957 2,118 1,977 1,983 2,007 1,903 1,959 2,071 2,284 2,474


"Right now, we pay
based upon how
many students you
have, not on the
results of how many
jobs you're getting
people into."

Wants New Model:
“…not based on
butts in seats but on
how many of those
butts can get jobs."
Governor Pat McCrory
North Carolina

“We have to move to a
system that is learning
outcome based and the
degrees are clearly deﬁned
so we know when we are
done. Competency
based.”

“Right now we are
trapped in this credit
hour seat time system.”

“If you are focused on seat
time for a student you are James Applegate
Vice President for Program Development
focused on the wrong Lumina Foundation
end of the student.”


It’s not about getting students INTO college...


It’s about getting OUT and INTO a JOB.


Five Ways to Improve Employability in Higher Education

Five Ways to Improve Employability in Higher Education

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