Climate Change and Water Resources Analysis

Planning for Climate Change in Water
Resources Technical Analysis
Presented November 16, 2010 at the ASCE Coasts, Oceans,
Ports Rivers Institute (COPRI) 2010 Congress, Memphis, TN
Technical Sessions: Track II
Climate Adaptation and Sustainability in Ports
Presenter:
Michael DePue, PE, CFM (PBS&J)
For Copy of Presentation Contact
Michael DePue, PE, CFM
Vice President, PBS&J
10 East Doty Street, Suite 800
Madison, WI, USA 53703
Main: 1-608-204-5950
mdepue@pbsj.com

Outline
• Climate Change Trends
• Adapting our Technical Analyses to Climate Change
• References

Worldwide Projected Precipitation Changes
From: IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K and Reisinger, A.
(eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 104 pp.
More
Precip
Less Precip

Worldwide Projected Changes in Runoff
From: IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K and Reisinger, A.
(eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 104 pp.
More
Runoff
Less
Runoff

Climate Change and Water Resources
Management: A Federal Perspective 2009
From: Brekke, L.D., Kiang, J.E., Olsen, J.R., Pulwarty, R.S., Raff, D.A., Turnipseed, D.P., Webb, R.S., and White, K.D., 2009,
Climate change and water resources management—A federal perspective: U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1331, 65 p. (Also
available online at http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/1331/)
Temperature Trends
Sea Level Trends

U.S. Coastal Sensitivity to Sea Level Rise 2009
From: “U.S. Climate Change Science Program Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.1, Coastal Sensitivity to Sea Level Rise: A
Focus on the Mid-Atlantic Region.” Lead Agency: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Other Key Participating Agencies: U.S.
Geological Survey, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Contributing Agencies: Department of Transportation. January
15, 2009

Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States
http://www.globalchange.gov/ June 2009
From: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C.
Peterson, (eds.). Cambridge University Press, 2009. http://www.globalchange.gov/

Energy-Water Nexus

• Key findings
• Average U.S. temperature has risen more than 2°F over
the past 50 years
• Precipitation has increased an average of about 5 percent
over the past 50 years
• Wet areas wetter, dry areas drier.
• Heaviest downpours have increased approximately 20
percent on average in the past century
• Strongest increases in the wettest places.
• Many types of extreme weather events have become more
frequent and intense during the past 40 to 50 years.

• Other trends occurring on regional scale
• A longer growing season
• Less winter precipitation falling as snow and more as rain
• Reduced snowpack
• Earlier breakup of winter ice on lakes and rivers
• Earlier spring snowmelt and earlier peak river flows
• In some areas, average fall precipitation has increased by
30 percent
• Increase in percentage of land area experiencing drought
• Warmer coast waters and more hurricanes

Increased summer continental drying and
associated risk of drought
(USGS, Abrupt Climate Change, 2008)
Water infrastructure will have to be redesigned. Water use will have to
adjust to limited water availability.
From: CCSP, 2008: Abrupt Climate Change. A report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the
Subcommittee on Global Change Research [Clark, P.U., A.J. Weaver (coordinating lead authors), E. Brook, E.R.
Cook, T.L. Delworth, and K. Steffen (chapter lead authors)]. U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA, 459 pp.

A longer growing season
http://www.arborday.org/media/mapchanges.cfm
Shifting Hardiness Zones
Increase in mean global
temperature of 1.8°C is likely
to shorten growing season in
Tropics, lengthen
growing season in higher
latitudes. Mid-latitude impacts
are mixed. (USDA, 2001)
http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/aib765/aib765-8.pdf
From: Roy Darwin. United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. Climate Change and
Food Security. Agriculture Information Bulletin Number 765-8 June 2001

Adapting our Technical Analyses to
Climate Change

Selected key trends for modeling impact analysis
Type Scale Impact Source
Cyclones Global Increase in tropical cyclone peak w ind intensities IPCC 2001
Land Cover USA A longer grow ing season NOAA 2009
Precipitation Global Increase in tropical cyclone mean and peak precipitation intensities IPCC 2001
Precipitation Global Increased summer continental drying and associated risk of drought IPCC 2001
Precipitation Global More intense precipitation events IPCC 2001
Sea Level Rise USA
Sea level has risen 2 to 5 inches during the past 50 years along many U.S.
coasts
NOAA 2009
Temperatures Global Higher maximum temperatures and more hot days over nearly all land areas IPCC 2001

Conceptual Model of Effects to Technical Analyses
Climate Change Impact
Topography
Riverine
Hydrology
Riverine
Hydraulics
Coastal Surge
Model
Coastal Wave
Model
Hydraulic
Structures
Credit: FEMA News Photo, Marvin Nauman
Credit: NOAA News Photo
Credit: California Department of Water Resources Credit: PBS&J
Credit: PBS&J
Credit: PBS&J

Increase in tropical cyclone peak wind intensities
Increase in tropical
cyclone peak wind
intensities
Topography
Riverine
Hydrology
Riverine
Hydraulics
Coastal Surge
Model
Coastal Wave
Model
Hydraulic
Structures
Change in Max
Wind Radius
Change in Max
Wind Speed
Change in Max
Wind Direction
Change in Max
Wind Speed
Change in Max
Wind Direction
Change in Max
Wind Duration
Change in Max
Wind Duration
Wave erosion
against levees
Wave erosion at
dams
Wind-driven
backwaters
Blow down of
vegetation could
change runoff
Cyclones in areas
not previously seen
or rare
Combined
Probability Issues

A longer growing season
Longer growing season
Topography
Riverine
Hydrology
Riverine
Hydraulics
Coastal Surge
Model
Coastal Wave
Model
Hydraulic
Structures
Changes to
vegetation on sand
dunes
Changes to
vegetation in
mangrove areas
More vegetation on
levees
More vegetation on
dams
New environmental
permit reqs for
maintenance
Changes to surface
roughness and
runoff times
Changes to runoff
coefficients
Evapotranspiration
changes
Changes to erosion
of landscape
More difficulty
obtaining aerial
topo due to
vegetation
Increased
roughness in
channels
Wider floodplains
due to more
roughness
Potential for
additional or new
debris in floods
Changes to near-
shore roughness
Coastal erosion /
accretion due to
vegetation changes
More topo coverage
needed for bigger
floods-roughness

Increase in tropical cyclone mean and peak
precipitation intensities
Increase in cyclone
mean & peak precip
intensities
Topography
Riverine
Hydrology
Riverine
Hydraulics
Coastal Surge
Model
Coastal Wave
Model
Hydraulic
Structures
Pluvial erosion of
dunes ?
Combined
probability issues
Changes to PMP/
PMF for Dams
Changes to interior
drainage design
precip for levees
Design rainfalls
outdated
Changes to AMC
Change to precip
S-curve
Time of
concentration
changes
Changes to erosion
of landscape
Possible need for
unsteady routing
due to flash effects
More structure
overtopping
Wider floodplains
Combined
probability issues
More erosive flows,
geomorph changes
More topo coverage
needed for bigger
floods
Rating curves must
be bigger for higher
flows
More breakouts to
other basins with
higher flows
Additional
saturation time for
structures
Groundwater table
increases or
decrease
More breakouts to
other basins with
higher flows
More breakouts to
other basins with
higher flows

Increased summer continental drying and
associated risk of drought
Increased summer
drying and risk of
drought
Topography
Riverine
Hydrology
Riverine
Hydraulics
Coastal Surge
Model
Coastal Wave
Model
Hydraulic
Structures
Changes to
vegetation on sand
dunes
Less vegetation on
levees—more
erosion
Less vegetation on
dams—more
erosion
Loss of endangered
species and env
permit issues
Changes to surface
roughness and
runoff times
Changes to runoff
coefficients
Evapotranspiration
changes
Changes to erosion
of landscape
Dust storms,
limiting aerial flight
Less vegetation in
channel, more
erosion
Harder to convince
public of flood risk
in drought
More flashy flows,
unsteady routing
needed
Coastal erosion /
accretion due to
vegetation changes
Desert pavement
formation ?
Fire risk to pump
stations, etc.
Increased fire risk
with associated
runoff changes
Less saturation time
for structures
Groundwater table
increases or
decrease

More intense precipitation events
More intense
precipitation events
Topography
Riverine
Hydrology
Riverine
Hydraulics
Coastal Surge
Model
Coastal Wave
Model
Hydraulic
Structures
Pluvial erosion of
dunes ?
Combined
probability issues
Changes to PMP/
PMF for Dams
Changes to interior
drainage design
precip for levees
Design rainfalls
outdated
Changes to AMC
Change to precip
S-curve
Time of
concentration
changes
Changes to erosion
of landscape
Possible need for
unsteady routing
due to flash effects
More structure
overtopping
Wider floodplains
Combined
probability issues
More erosive flows,
geomorph changes
Increased pluvial
erosion near
structures
More topo coverage
needed for bigger
floods
More breakouts to
other basins with
higher flows
Additional
saturation for
structures
Groundwater table
increases or
decrease
Rating curves must
flows
Rating curves must
flows
More breakouts to
other basins with
higher flows
More breakouts to
other basins with
higher flows

Sea level has risen 2 to 5 inches during the past 50
years along many U.S. coasts
Sea Level Rise
Topography
Riverine
Hydrology
Riverine
Hydraulics
Coastal Surge
Model
Coastal Wave
Model
Hydraulic
Structures
Increased erosion
of sand dunes
Higher stillwater
elevations
More stress on
bulkheads and
floodwalls
Increased erosion
of coastal levees
Increased erosion
of coastal bridges
Changes to
microhydrology
Changes in near
coast topography
Downstream
backwater changes
Wider floodplains
due to more
backwater
Additional tidal
effects range
Changes to near-
shore roughness
Coastal erosion /
accretion
Deeper near shore
depths & wave
effects
Higher stillwater
elevations
Datum tie-ins for
SLR changes
Overflows to inland
areas—better topo
needed
Additional
saturation time for
structures
Groundwater table
increases or
decrease
Waves break
further inland

Higher maximum temperatures and more hot days
over nearly all land areas
Higher maximum
temperatures and more
hot days over land
Topography
Riverine
Hydrology
Riverine
Hydraulics
Coastal Surge
Model
Coastal Wave
Model
Hydraulic
Structures
Changes to
vegetation on sand
dunes
Less vegetation on
levees—more
erosion
Less vegetation on
dams—more
erosion
Loss of endangered
species and env
permit issues
Changes to surface
roughness and
runoff times
Changes to runoff
coefficients
Evapotranspiration
changes
Changes to erosion
of landscape
Dust storms,
limiting aerial flight
Less vegetation in
channel, more
erosion
More flashy flows,
unsteady routing
needed
Coastal erosion /
accretion due to
vegetation changes
Desert pavement
formation ?
Fire risk to pump
stations, etc.
Increased fire risk
with associated
runoff changes
More topo coverage
needed for fire-
related floods
Less saturation time
for structures
Groundwater table
decrease
Moisture changes
require changes in
PMP

References
1. Bates, B.C., Z.W. Kundzewicz, S. Wu and J.P. Palutikof, Eds., 2008: Climate Change and Water. Technical Paper of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, IPCC Secretariat, Geneva, 210 pp.
2. IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K and Reisinger, A. (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 104 pp.
3. IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996 pp.
4. IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, UK, 976pp.
5. IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change [B. Metz, O.R. Davidson, P.R. Bosch, R. Dave, L.A. Meyer (eds)], Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.,
XXX pp.
6. Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson, (eds.). Cambridge University Press, 2009.
http://www.globalchange.gov/
7. Roy Darwin. United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. Climate Change and Food Security. Agriculture Information Bulletin
Number 765-8 June 2001
8. “Practical Consideration of Climate Change, Floodplain Risk Management Guideline.” State of New South Wales through the Department of Environment and
Climate Change. October 25, 2007. See: http://www.tweed.nsw.gov.au/CouncilMeetings/pdfs/O5%20%5BEO-
OC%5D%20Climate%20Change%20Impacts%20on%20Flooding.pdf
9. CCSP, 2008: Abrupt Climate Change. A report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research [Clark, P.U., A.J.
Weaver (coordinating lead authors), E. Brook, E.R. Cook, T.L. Delworth, and K. Steffen (chapter lead authors)]. U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA, 459 pp.
10. “U.S. Climate Change Science Program Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.1, Coastal Sensitivity to Sea Level Rise: A Focus on the Mid-Atlantic Region.”
Lead Agency: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Other Key Participating Agencies: U.S. Geological Survey, National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration, Contributing Agencies: Department of Transportation. January 15, 2009
11. National Water Program Strategy, Response to Climate Change. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Water (4101M) EPA 800-R-08-001.
http://www.epa.gov/water/climatechange, September 2008
12. Brekke, L.D., Kiang, J.E., Olsen, J.R., Pulwarty, R.S., Raff, D.A., Turnipseed, D.P., Webb, R.S., and White, K.D., 2009, Climate change and water resources
management—A federal perspective: U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1331, 65 p. (Also available online at http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/1331/)
13. Willows, R.I. and Connell, R.K. (Eds.). (2003). Climate adaptation: Risk, uncertainty and decision-making. UKCIP Technical Report. UKCIP, Oxford.
14. IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report. A Contribution of Working Groups I, II, and III to the Third Assessment Report of the Integovernmental
Panel on Climate Change [Watson, R.T. and the Core Writing Team (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, and New York, NY, USA,
398 pp.

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